Month: April 2009

Economics Update

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Here’s a surprise, Bank of America buys Countrywide Financial, whose reckless mortgage policies destroyed their company and threw untold thousands out on the street, and now BoA is attempting to make the “Countrywide” brand vanish, because it is such a completely toxic entity.

Which means that they are writing off the so-called “good will”, basically the value of the “Countrywide” brand name, accrued with the purchase.

Heck of a job, Kenny.

In related real estate news, home ownership percentages are back at the level they were in 2000.

More generally, we have the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve releasing its numbers, and they are all very negative, though they are no longer the end of the world bad, which is an improvement.

In energy, retail gasoline has been flat for the past 2 weeks, and oil is down on the expectation that the flu outbreak is likely to further crimp energy demand.

The flu also drove the dollar up, as people looked for safe havens.

Washington’s Various Serious People in Action

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Here we see Republican Senator Susan Collins saying that we should cut the stimulus money for flu pandemic.

They cut the money, because they are “centrists”, and unless they do something to throw their weight around, it means nothing, so Collins killed the money on pandemic preparedness, to show “fiscal responsibility”, and we may be on the brink of a major flu outbreak.

Bobby Jindal lambasted volcano monitoring, and Mount Redoubt erupted.

Republican spending cuts are making me very nervous about the next shoe to drop.

My Take on Swine Flu

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In no particular order:

  • It is H1N1, a variant of the Spanish Influenza.
  • We don’t know the numbers from Mexico, only the numbers of those seriously ill, so we don’t really have mortality and serious illness percentages from them.
  • The US numbers appear to show that it’s not so bad.
    • It may become a pandemic, but if so, think Hong Kong Flu (Influenza A virus subtype H3N2) where the 1968-9 pandemic killed about 33,800 in the us, primarily among the old, very young, and immune compromised, not Spanish Influenza, where ½-¾ million died, and it hit the young and healthy hard through cytokine storms.

Summer flu is not unknown, so don’t panic, but do wash your hands.

USAF’s 2018 Bomber Looks Dead

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Or at least significantly delayed. (paid subscription required)

The concept out there was for a 20,000 lb payload stealthy bomber, which is really only suited to the nuclear strike, you probably want twice that to match the payloads of the B-52, B-1, and B-2, and it really does not have much of a mission beyond the nuclear strike role.

Additionally, the current arms control agreements are likely to be rather unfriendly to nuclear bombers, which are typically counted on maximum theoretical loadout, as opposed to actual weapons loads.

USAF Sees Writing on the Wall

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The US Air Force Chief of staff, General Norton Schwartz, is now saying that maybe, just maybe, the service should look at procuring a “light strike” capability.

The current aircraft operate too far from the front, and do not have the endurance to stay on station a meaningful length of time.

He was talking about something like the an armed turboprop trainer, though the basic needs are very similar to the A-10, and there are a lot of those in the boneyard.

I would also argue that a turbofan based new airframe, designed to roughly the same specs as the A-10 would be superior, because you could incorporate narrow band stealth to address the issue of the radar guided AAA.

My guess is that a replacement for the A-10 would be, considering advances in armor, propulsion, and cannon, would be at less than ¾ of the weight.

The problem would be how to deal with mission/feature creep.


Video courtesy of the DEW Line.

Swiss Push Back Fighter Deal Competition

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The official word is that they are looking for more industrial involvement by Swiss industry, but the effect is to push back the date of the decision.

The competitors still standing are the Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, and the SAAB Gripen

Of note is the fact that they are still evaluating noise data, which would tend to favor the smallest aircraft (Gripen), and it looks like they want the Swedes to purchase their Pilatus trainer should they win.

More Google Ads Mishugas

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So I come across this add when I bring up my blog, an add offering “Ann Coulter Free” (no link, I don’t want to drive her traffic).

I do not involve myself in what Google® Adsense® serves, I just make fun of them when it they get it wrong, and this ad is very, very wrong.

Truth be told, I don’t want Ann Coulter free, I want Ann Coulter in jail for vote fraud.

Expect the Stock Market Rally to End Soon

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Because stock sales by executives and other insiders at firms has hit the highest level since 2007.

They know that the earnings for this quarter are not sustainable, and they are getting out of their own companies’ stocks and into cash:

Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market.

What we have been seeing is a bear rally or dead cat bounce.

Someone Else Recommends Disbanding the USAF

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Only this time, as opposed to being a proposal in the milblogosphere, it’s a retired Marine corps officer, Paul Kane on the OP/ED pages of the New York Times.

I agreed with it then, and I agree with it now.

He also suggests that the services abandon up or out, where officers are discharged if they get passed over for promotion twice, which is a good idea too.

Up or out tends to create sycophants, because having a poor review given out of enmity can destroy a career, and is one reason that our current military is so top heavy (1 officer per 5 enlisted men, as opposed to the 1:10 it had through most of its history).

Lockheed Martin Rolls Over on F-22 Cancellation

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This is an unexpected but welcome development:

A top Lockheed Martin executive says the company will not oppose the Department of Defense’s proposal to halt F-22 production. The company stands to lose production lines for the F-22 and the VH-71 presidential helicopter under fiscal year 2010 budget proposals announced by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on 6 April.

I can’t imagine what gun that they are holding to LM’s head to make them do this, but it needs to used across the entire Pentagon procurement process.

Russian Draws Back Veil from MiG-31BM

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Russia has finally displayed the latest version of the MiG 31 interceptor along with its weapons loadout.

Of interest is that this is the first showing of the R-33S (bottom pic, right hand side), which differs from the basic R-33 by having some small destabilizing surfaces up front (the ones with the ray and white bodies).

It’s about 40 kg (88 lb) heavier than the basic R-33, which would imply some increase in range, and the destabilizing surfaces implies an increase in maneuverability, though it is still clearly not intended for highly maneuverable targets.

You can click the pics for the full size photographs.

Amazingly Politically Incorrect Humor

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So, I’m on the Stellar Parthenon BBS, and we are discussing the rapidly deteriorating state of governance in Pakistan, and I’m a part of the following exchange:

Me: (Furiously calling up Wiki) Pakistan has somewhere around 40 throughly weaponized and deliverable nuclear warheads….

CZ: That many? F@#$.

UM: Don’t worry, they’re all pointed at India.
I think they could probably wipe out about 5% of India’s total population.

Me: As long as they are pointed at whoever does tech support for Dell…..

DC: Let me provide the coordinates.

CZ: Win!

Congress Threatens Subpoena Over BoA Threats

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Now that Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis’ testimony before NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo has been released, members of Congress want the documents to investigate, and are threatening a subpoena if they don’t get them.

Representatives Rep. Edolphus Towns (D-N.Y.), chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, and Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who the Domestic Policy subpanel, are demanding that all relevant documents be turned over to them, and they are threatening a subpoena:

The implications of Mr. Lewis’ testimony, if accurate, are extremely serious. Under these circumstances failure to comply with the Subcommittee’s request raises the prospect that we will be forced to consider compulsory means to achieve compliance with our request. However, we would prefer your voluntary compliance.

(emphasis mine)

As I’ve said before, it sounds to me like Paulson and Bernanke broke the law, and a full investigation would be a very good idea.

Hell an indictment would be a very good idea.