Month: May 2009

“Stress Test” Results Delayed

They were supposed to be announced tomorrow, but the results will be delayed until Thursday.

A delay means bad news. If it had been good, Geithner and Summers would already be crowing about it.

Also note that Austan Goolsbee is saying that the delay is, “A disagreement by banks over the results of the tests,” which also implies bad news, because the bankers would never object to an overly optimistic projection, which would make them money off their stock options.

Additionally, it seems to me that the reports themselves will be rather sketchy, with important details not being made available to the public.

Denmark Delays Fighter Purchase

It looks like their decision on an F-16 replacement has been pushed to the fall, to allow the formulation of a new National Defense Strategy (basically a budget white paper).

The competitors are the JSF, F/A-18, Gripen, and my guess is there are a number of reasons here, that they want more time to get firmer cost figures on the JSF, which seems to get more expensive daily, and see if they can afford it, and they see the the delay to extract price concessions.

I think that a lot of countries, like Denmark, which were likely JSF buyers, are looking at the numbers, and getting sticker shock.

Chinese Move Aircraft Carrier, Possibly for Refit

The partially completed Soviet aircraft carrier Varyag was sold by the Ukraine to China a few years back, and it was thought that it would be converted to a casino.

Well Galrahn came across photos of the ship being moved across the Dalian shipyard in what appears to be a prelude toward bringing the hull up to operational standards.

My guess is that it will never see operational service, but that it will be used for training and development of an indigenous carrier capability.

My Bad

On my last bank fail post, I listed the total number of bank failures this year at 28. This in error.

That number is just those banks closed by the FDIC, and I got it by totalling their Full list.

If you go there, and click on the most recent closing, it gives the current tally, which is 32 for the year.

Additionally, I neglected to mention the significance of the failure of Silverton Bank.

Silverton Bank was a large institution, providing services for other banks, about 1500 of them, not consumers.

It was a clearing house for payments, credits, and it repackaged loans among multiple banks.

As such, this may trigger further bank failures.

Posted via mobile phone….While in line for a roller coaster at Hershey Park.

Gripen NG Going With Swash Plate AESA Radar

While there are a number of advantages to AESA radars, including reliability, flexibility, range, and low signature, there are also disadvantages, most notably cost, weight, and look angle.

An AESA radar will typically offer inferior performance at significant angles off boresight, and a narrower field of view.

It appears that SAAB is following Eurofighter’s lead, and will offer a swashplate AESA radar for Gripen NG (see picture), in partnership with Radar supplier Selex, offering a “scan angle of up to 100°” (off boresite).

This should address one of the concerns of potential customers, though there is still the whole “chicken-egg” thing, where the customer does not want to be the only foreign customer for the system, or support and upgrades become prohibitively expensive.

SAAB’s brochure is here. (PDF)

NASA Head is So Far Up It’s Ass it Resembles a Klein bottle

Remember that permanent moonbase that NASA has been pushing for the past few years????

OOPS!! just kidding!

After four years of bold talk about focusing its return-to-the-Moon programme on a permanent international outpost at the Moon’s southern polar Shackleton crater, NASA now suggests its plans may stop at less ambitions Apollo-style sorties.

Seriously, it appears that NASA looks at its long term goals with the same seriousness as your average LOLKat on a catnip binge.

As I’ve said before, these are people who let Star Trek inform their decisions way too much.

AFRL Develops Directional Fusing for A

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is looking at fuses and configurations that would allow a warhead to direct the bulk of its shrapnel toward the target, as opposed to distributing it more or less evenly in all directions.

This intended to be a part of the Joint Dual-Role Air Dominance Missile (JDRADM), a missile intended to replace both the AMRAAM AAM and the HARM ARM.

I’m a bit dubious of packaging both of these roles into one missile, but the fusing and warhead tech here looks promising.

Russia: Turkey Seeks To Buy Air Defense System – Defense News

About 7 months ago, I noted that Turkey was looking to buy Russian SAM Systems.

We have another report , and this adds the S-400 (NATO Code Name SA-21 Growler) to the list.

It is arguably the most capable SAM system in the world with a range in excess of 400 km, and a sophisticated control system that may allow for some anti-stealth capabilities through sensor fusion and data processing, along a significant anti-missile capabilities, which might very well provide coverage from something fired from Iran.

What is interesting here is that the story is not that the manufacturer is saying that Turkey wants the system, not that a contract has been inked, and the system has yet to be exported, and I am not sure that if I were Russian authorities, I would want a NATO ally, who would be very likely to pass along data on this system to the US, to get their mitts on this.

Air Force Clueless Over UAVs

And this is a deep cultural problem, not a simple case of a penny wise and pound foolish mistake.

What is going on is that both the Army and the USAF operate models of the Predator drone, but the Army’s loss rate is much lower because the USAF has refused to incorporate an auto-landing system on their UAVs:

Outgoing Pentagon acquisition czar John Young sharply criticized the Air Force today in his last meeting with reporters, saying the service had refused to budget for auto-landing gear for Predator UAVs even though the Air Force has lost a substantial portion of these to landing accidents. The new undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, Ash Carter, was sworn in this afternoon.

Young said the Air Force has lost one-third of the 183 Predators it has bought, and one third of those have crashed because of ground control issues. (Young’s spokesman, Chris Isleib, later sent an email to reporters slightly changing the numbers. “Since 1994 the Air Force has procured 195 Predators. 65 have been lost due to Class A mishaps,” he said.) Isleib added that of the 65 mishaps, 36 percent are laid at the door of human error and “many of those attributable to ground station problems.” About 15 percent of the total was destroyed during the landing phase, Isleib clarified in his email. (For a very human and honest portrayal of the difficulties of flying a Predator, catch this briefing by a NASA pilot who has flown them.)

Young said he told the Air Force to “move as fast as possible to auto-land.” A clearly irritated undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics told reporters “it will not surprise you that the Air Force is resisting this.” No cost estimates are available yet for equipping the Predator fleet with auto-land.

Young drew a sharp contrast with the Army’s Shadow UAV, saying it had lost very few aircraft to landing mishaps because it possesses auto-land capability.

What is going on here is a calculus that is very close to the USAF’s raison d’etre.

The air force is about pilots flying things, and pilots land what they fly, so if you add an auto-land system, then why do you need a pilot, as opposed to some sort of weapons system operator, who might *gasp* even be an enlisted man…..horrors!

Another example of why spinning off the USAF as an independent service has not served the military, or the taxpayer, well.

Friday Night Bank Failures

28 so far this year.

America West Bank, Layton, UT

Citizens Community Bank, Ridgewood, NJ

Silverton Bank, N.A., Atlanta, GA

Full FDIC list.

Oh, we also have a German bank, Hypo Real Estate (HRE), that specialized in loans to developers being nationalized by the German government, albeit in a confusing, slow motion sort of way.

And finally, there is Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., a San Diego, California based mortgage banker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing debt of as much as $500 million and assets of less than $50 million.

Update on Goss, Harman and AIPAC

First, Laura Rosen has a convincing, but not definitive account that the wiretap of Harman was part and parcel of a hit job by Porter Goss and his “Gosslings”.

Some data points:

  • It appears that people are arguing that Gonzalez backed off the investigation of Harman almost a year after the the New York Times had published its story on the wiretaps.
  • The leak of this information to Time Magazine in 2006 came 3 days after Harman released a report under the auspices of her being the ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HSPCI) on the Randall “Duke” Cunningham affair, and both Goss and his “Gosslings” frequented Cunningham’s booze and prostitute laden soirees:

Indeed, my read of a more recent CQ piece about then DNI John Negroponte also telling Goss not to brief the House leadership about Harman caught on the wiretap is that Negroponte was also trying to shut down what he thought was a rogue effort to pursue investigation of Harman. One now wonders if the reported Negroponte-Goss tensions that ultimately ended in Goss being forced to resign were also fueled by his concerns about Goss’s and the Gosslings’ actions on the Harman matter, and not just the Foggo matter. As we now know, by the way, the Foggo matter is not at all unrelated to the Cunningham case and the HPSCI report that Harman released. Remember: Foggo got the number 3 job at CIA because Goss’s staff recommended him to Goss. Indeed, many members of Goss’s staff had played poker with Foggo and the Cunningham case defense contractors for years (remember the Watergate poker parties?). And my understanding is that when Goss was chairman of HPSCI, Foggo had served his staff as a kind of mole against Tenet and other suspected-unloyal-to-Bush types inside the CIA. So Team Goss and the Gosslings had reasons to squirm when Harman released that report. I need to check when the Foggo indictment actually came down, but I don’t believe he was indicted yet at the time Harman released that report in October 2006. So that case against Foggo and the wider Cunningham investigation still moving may have unnerved people in Goss-land for multiple reasons when Harman released that report.

….
October 2006 is one month before the midterms when the Democrats would retake the House. And with the Democrats expected to win, who would get the chairmanship of HPSCI would have been a live issue for those who cared about these things, including about what kind of oversight even of past actions at CIA might have occurred. Oversight – and in particular Democratic-led oversight – that might have included looking into actions taken during Goss’s tenure as CIA director from 2004-2006. That tenure included, as Marcy Wheeler has pointed out, the CIA’s destruction of videotapes recording harsh interrogations of terrorism suspects — which Harman may have been briefed about. The episode is serious – it’s now the subject of investigation by a special prosecutor. Goss’s tenure also included the whole Foggo corruption matter which was still playing out in 2006, indeed, which played a big role in Goss being forced to suddenly step down as CIA director in May 2006.

So it’s beginning to sound like someone was going after the person most likely to investigate both the torture tape destruction and the connections between Goss staffers and disgraced Congressman Cunningham.

Most of this appears to be moot, because prosecutors are dropping the case against the AIPAC lobbyists, which is a good thing, because the precedent intended by this case was to criminalize the receipt of any classified material by an American citizen without any espionage being involved, and could be very easily extended to journalism.

Economics Update

Well, we have good news to start, with the Institute for Supply Manufacturing Index rising to 41, beating expectations, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 65.1.

I’m not sure if this is a turn around or just a pause, since 41 is still contraction (50 being neutral for the ISM Manufacturing Index), and 65.1 for consumer confidence is well below the baseline of 100 which was set in December 1964.

Additionally, U.S. March factory orders fell 0.9%, and Japanese prices are showing deflation again, both of which mitigate against a prompt recovery.

Still, optimism on the economy drove oil to above $53/bbl.

As to the dollar, it was up vs. the Yen, and down vs. the Euro, I think largely on the bad news from Japan and the “good” news on orders and consumer confidence.

Remind Me Never to Play Poker With Barack Obama

Because that’s just what happened with the Chrysler bankruptcy, as this article titled Chrysler Lenders Tried Obama’s Patience, Lost Game of Chicken shows.

They are making noises about how unfairly they have been treated:

An anonymous group of 20 Chrysler lenders calling itself the “Committee of Chrysler Non-Tarp Lenders” said in a statement yesterday that they’d been treated worse than junior creditors during negotiations in violation of “long-recognized legal and business principles.” They said they were owed $1 billion.

And they are technically correct that they are secured creditors, but their security is not equal the full value of the loans, more like 10-20% of the outstanding amount, and they are vulture capitalists who intended this shakedown in the first place, as evidence by the fact that they, “paid from 50 cents to 70 cents on the dollar for their Chrysler loans,” (my money is actually on their purchasing this debt for less than 50¢ on the dollar).

Now they are whining, and they are the ones who will be taken into court and have the fingers pointed at them.

This is a very big shot across the bow for creditors for General Motors.

In completely unrelated auto news, the April sales figures are out, and they are bleak, with GM -33%, Ford -32%, Honda -25%, Nissan -38%, Hyundai -14%, Daimler -31%, and Toyota -42% year over year.

Not Enough Bullets: UK Edition

Of course, because of their strict gun laws, we may have to implant the bullets manually:

City bankers are to reap nearly £7bn in bonuses this spring even though the government has been forced to pump tens of billions into the banks to prevent them collapsing.

The good news is that this is down from its £14.1 billion peak in 2007.

The bad news is that these folks still say that they need this with a straight face.

As my British friend would say, “Fecken bollocks Numpty wankers!!”