Month: June 2009

Economics Update

I think that the lede for today is the fact that two of the most prominent indicators of consumer distress, consumer credit card delinquency and consumer bankruptcy filings are up 11% and 37% year over year respectively.

These “green shoots” are all about the bankers, not about the real economy, or real people.

What’s more, indicators of the economy that are independent of investment banking, things like, the American Trucking Association Tonnage Index and the AAR’s reports on rail volume (same link), continue their downward trend.

The so-called “green shoots” are things like the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index, which improved for the first time in 16 months:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ saw a small uptick in May. The index now stands at 89.9, increasing 0.2 percent from the revised April figure of 89.7, and down 20 percent from a year ago.

So, a 1 months uptick of less than 0.3% is a promising sign (100=1996), even though it’s still down 29% year over year, and 1996 was a great year only by the standards of the Bush economy.

Meanwhile, in international finance, downgraded the Celtic Kitten, Ireland from AA+ to AA, because Ireland, the Baltics, and much of the rest of the new EU members have experienced growth driven more by speculative flows rather than real economic development.

In energy, retail gasoline was up again this week, that’s about 27% in the past month and a half, to $2.613/gal, though oil was down slightly, largely on a stronger dollar.

Liberals in Congress Doing the Right Thing

When you have something spearheaded by the repugnant Joseph Lieberman that has to do with national security, you can be sure that it will be a bad thing.

The same goes for self-hating closet case Lindsay Graham.

When you get the two of them together, the stench is such that it, to quote the late Edwin Newman, it positively buggers the mind, which is why we have the, “Detainee Photographic Records Protection Act of 2009,” which would specifically, “photograph taken between September 11, 2001 and January 22, 2009 relating to the treatment of individuals engaged, captured, or detained after September 11, 2001, by the Armed Forces of the United States in operations outside of the United States.”

The only way that this bill could be more repugnant would be if the Obama administration were supporting this, since Obama and His Evil Minions have determined that there is no sort of perversion conducted by either the military or the other state security apparatus during the reign of Bush and His Evil Minions against the law, international treaty obligations, common human decency, the Constitution of the United States of America, or the founding principles of this republic that they will not support and try to suppress.

Oh, wait, Obama and His Evil Minions are supporting this bill, and it’s not a stand alone bill, it’s an amendment to the “must pass” supplemental budget for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Thankfully, there is still a functional liberal wing of the Democrat Party in the house of representatives, and because this bill contains additional funding for the IMF, the Republicans won’t vote for it, and now Barney Frank, along with about 10 other liberal members of Congress, out of 39 needed to kill the bill, have publicly stated that they will vote against any bill that contains such a provision.

Call your Congressman, and tell him to do the right thing.

Why I Love the Internet

Because I’m on a the the by invitation only Stellar Parthenon BBS, discussing record album cover art that kicks ass*, and someone notes that he thought that he would never hear a post-punk/new wave band called the Bush Tetras outside of some antique vinyl or old audio tapes, and posts a link to the Youtube for their song “Too Many Creeps”.

I’m sorry I missed them in their heyday. This is precisely the sort of stuff that I used to rock out to when I went off to college in 1980, and if this had come up in a conversation, I would never know that they sound like.

These little discoveries make the trolls all worthwhile.

*I still think that the Beatles “White Album” cover is the best record album cover ever.

VH-71 Presidential Helicopter Contract Officially Terminated

This is not surprising, it’s just that it’s now official.

In a way, it’s a microcosm of problems in military contracting. Had the specifications remained as they were at the start of the program, the helos would now be in service for less than was spent not buying them.

Unfortunately, Bush and His Evil Minions decided to gold plate it, adding plush carpeting, a bathroom, a kitchen (!), videoconferencing gear, for a helo that would take the president on short (less than one hour) hops to a secure location or Air Force 1.

Japan Continues Moves Back Toward Militarism

They have been ramping up their defense spending, continue to be tin-eared toward considerations of their atrocities in Asia in WWII, have a growing, and increasingly violent, militarist movement, a move toward a first strike “defensive” posture, and now they are looking to rescind their ban on exporting weapons (paid subscription required), which would mean growth for their defense industry, and it was the juxtaposition of the weapon making industrial conglomerates and politics that to a large degree pushed their militarism in the 1930s.

Creating a More Target Rich Environment

Russia is sending sending 50 armored vehicles to the Palestinian Authority.

I’m sure that the thinking is that this will better allow the PA to fight Hamas, but considering the PLO’s long history of ineptitude in anything remotely near conventional military conflicts, this just means that Hamas will have bigger targets to shoot at.

In the event of things getting hot with Hamas, they will last 2 days, against the IDF, less than 2 hours.

F136 Engine Will Harm JSF Program

So says JSF program office chief General David Heinz, who notes that it will drain resources away from low rate production, but just a few days later, he says that he favors a second source engine and radar:

“I believe that part of the debate that has to occur — and is occurring – is, is there an operational risk that we are accepting by having just a single engine manufacturer?” Heinz asked. “I simply think that we focus too much of the discussion about the cost and not the operational risk.”

The 1st story is from June 1, the 3rd, so what changed in 24 hours?

My guess is that he someone talked to him about industrial base issues, or perhaps someone talked to him about not telling Congress what to do.

Any insights would be appreciated.

Friday Night FDIC Bank Seizures

Bank of Lincolnwood, Lincolnwood, IL, which makes 37 for the year.

Additionally, we have an update on Silverton Bank of Atlanta, Georgia. This large, “Bank of Banks,” has been unable to find a buyer, so they are going to have to wind it down, at considerable taxpayer expense:

The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said Friday that it would wind down Silverton Bank, a failed Atlanta bank that regulators seized last month, and sell its assets instead of trying to sell it as a whole.

Full FDIC list

Economics Update


Unemployment Rates, Actuals vs. Geithner’s “Stress Tests”, courtesy Calculated Risk

Today, we get the unemployment rate (U3). It rose from 8.9% to 9.4%, a ½% rise.

Ouch.

By way of context, you can look at the BLS alternate measures table, and U6, which is probably closest to the figures used during the depression, though it still under counts relative to the older metric, rose from 15.8% to 16.4%.

Ugly number.

Of course, the press is reporting that the decrease in non-farm payrolls was less than expected, -345,000 as opposed to their projection of something in the -500K range.

Additionally, part of the increase in unemployment is workers becoming undiscouraged and actively looking for work, though the U6 number indicates that there was still an upward revision despite that.

Still, it appears that bondholders are betting on a recovery, they are bidding up the rates on treasuries, which is also driving up mortgage rates.

There is an argument between economists as to whether this is inflation concerns, or whether people have simply stopped fleeing headlong to the safety of US Government securities.

I’m with the latter school, but you can decide for yourselves.

As to where the economy is headed, I’d bet with the insiders and banks and such, and
insider sales as reported to the SEC are going up, implying that they are expecting worse for their firms.

Still, the jobs report drove both the dollar and oil up today.