Month: July 2009

Major Change in Pentagon Strategy

No Comments

General James Cartwright, vice-chairman of the JCS, has announced that the so-called two war strategy will be dropped at the next DoD Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR).

This is an unalloyed good. Not only has this policy, that the US should be able to defeat two “near peer” opponents in short order, created a ruinously expensive military, but it has also created a military that is ill suited to the current conflicts that we are involved in, where over-reliance on high-tech, and under reliance of boots on the ground, has led to our military losing, as opposed to winning, hearts and minds on the ground.

Sikorsky X2 Flying with Propulsor on

No Comments

The X2 advancing blade helicopter has returned to flight, and this time, the propulsor is hooked up.

It only reached 52 kts in its initial flights around the end of last month, but Sikorsky is hoping to reach 250 kts by the end of the year.

So far, there have been no game stoppers, and, unlike its ABC helicopter predecessor from the 1970s, vibrations appear to be very low.

I would assume that at some point, they will be adding some sort of shroud on the rotor masts to reduce drag a bit.

The JSF Engine War

No Comments

Desert Storm air commander, retired General Chuck Horner, makes some very good points as to why we should continue to fund the F136 alternate engine, though the obvious caveat is that he is consulting with GE, who is a part of the F136 team.

Basically, he recites a litany of problems, both from when he was commanding squadrons, and issues with the Saudi Air Force, where the Pratt & Whitney was unresponsive to customer concerns, and their F100 engine was unreliable and over priced, and whenever the competing GE F110 came up, the problems got fixed.

I recall reading about problems with the engine, and how it led to the USAF to fund development of the F110, then called the F101-DFE (Derivative Fighter Engine).

There were problems with reliability, price, and support that were fixed very quickly once there was a competitor on the horizon.

It appears to me that the F135 engine for the JSF is headed down the same path, we have P&W going though a number of cost cutting initiatives, promising that the engine will fall in price, while the manufacturer is saying that the cost savings as production ramps up may not meet expectations.

Much of the fair back from the Pentagon is, I think directed about getting copies of the F-35 JSF made now, and to hell with future operating costs.

The budget item for continuing development this year is small, about ½ billion, or less than the cost of 3 full aircraft, and promises real savings, and performance improvements, in the future.

BTW, as to nonsensical arguments against the F136 engine, we have CNO Gary Roughead saying that having two engines would be too much of a burden on a carrier, despite the fact that just for the fighters, there were 4 separate engines in the 1990s on carriers, the F404 for the F/A-18 C/D, the F414 for the F/A-18 E/F, the TF30 for the F-14 A, and the F110 for the F-14 D.

Additionally, the S-3 was still being deployed with the TF34 engine.

By the time that the F-35 enters naval service, there would be two types of fighters on deck, and either 2 or 3 engines, which would be a lower logistical load.

News of the Optimism of “Dr. Doom” Have Been Premature

No Comments

The wankers at CNBC reported that Dr. Nouriel Roubini said that he saw a recovery this year.

Not so, says the good doctor:

It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over ‘this year’ and that I have ‘improved’ my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

…

Someone saw a headline from slipping a phrase, and took it.

Card Check Killed in Senate

No Comments

Most of the rest of the reforms remain intact, but the card check provision has been removed.

What remains is the right of unions to campaign on company property, a faster election cycle, which gives less time for employers to strong arm and illegally fire employees, making mandatory anti-union meetings illegal, and binding arbitration.

Truth be told, I expect it to be watered down further, because the Barack Obama administration has been studiously silent on this measure, throwing yet another key constituency, unions, under the bus as they have with labor.

This bill will not progress with meaningful reform without White House support, and none is forthcoming.

Economics Update

No Comments

Housing starts rose from May to June, but as Barry Ritholtz notes, “The year-over-year data is much clearer: New Starts down 46%, Permits down 52%.” (The graph to the right illustrates this pretty well)

In either case, the housing data was better than expected, which drove oil up, bonds down (and thus their yields rose), and increased the spread between the 2 and 10 year notes.

The dollar rose today, but both the dollar and Yen have fallen more this week than they have since May, indicating an increase appetite for risk.

Still, the number that worries me is the fact that June video game sales are at a 9 year low.

When gaming geeks are cutting back, everyone is cutting back.

Economics Update

No Comments

Yeah, it’s actually yesterday’s….What can I say.

Since Thursday is new jobless day, we lead with the fact that new claims for unemployment fell to a 6 month low, though it must noted that these are seasonally adjusted figures, and the still accounts for the spike from the July shutdowns of the GM and Chrysler, which happened earlier this year.

We have two other indices moving in opposite directions, with the Philadelphia Fed industrial index falling, and the NAHB builder confidence index rising, but I’m more inclined to go with the Philly Fed, it’s an index of activity, not sentiment, and also because RealtyTrac is reporting that foreclosure filings hit a new record for the first half of the year.

Mortgage rates stayed pretty much flat over the last week.

In energy, retail gasoline continues to fall, hitting a 2 month low, and crude oil fell on demand concerns.

The dollar fell as well, on increased optimism by investors, who have moved their money to more speculative ventures.

iHymen

No Comments

Yes, someone has released an iPhone ‘purity ring’ application:

The iPhone has applications for almost everything, from helping people to choose the best wine for a meal to locating supermarkets in Holland. Now there is one to help them to stay chaste until marriage.

For just 59p, consumers can download an application that allows them to take a purity pledge and then display a silver ring on their phone to prove their commitment to abstinence.

I would note that people who take purity pledges are more likely to engage in oral sex, anal sex, unprotected sex, and parenthood, so the mind boggles at what sorts of risky behavior that this application will engender.

H/t Jessica Valenti

Dayam! I Get Some Whack Email!

No Comments

And it wasn’t even addressed to me about this blog, it was on a little Yahoo Group that I run to facilitate the Owings Mills Jewish community.*

I have new members set to “moderated” so as to prevent the phenomena where some joins, posts spam, and leaves, and someone posted this over the top screed that appears to call for the murder of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama!

I looked at it, and was about to delete it, and then I looked again and thought that the phrase, “The death time of lucifer and united states and clinton is come. GOD said: ” Kill clinton , Destroy united states !” was enough.

I contacted the Secret Service, read them the letter over the phone, and they had me send a copy to them.

Jeebus, the hate out there is scary.

*Note that the poster is not Jewish. When the opening ‘graph reads, “I am called by Hashem of Israel – my Father GOD, the Most High, and the Son of GOD, the Messiah of Israel – my LORD Yeshua to convey GOD’s Words to people in the last days. I have proof, the visible Sign of HOLY SPIRIT like a Light Dove on my forehead, and the Sign of Light Cross on my face,” it’s clearly one of the Evangelical proselytization group, like J4J or MJ, behind this.

DoJ Probing Derivatives Trading

No Comments

It looks like a serious investigation of credit default swaps and other derivatives has been initiated by the Department of Justice, and the investigation is specifically looking at the clearing of those instruments. (See also here)

What “clearing” means here is the process of actually settling the contracts for the derivatives, and much of it is done by one entity, Markit Group Ltd., which is owned by the Wall Street Banks.

This appears to be an anti-trust investigation, and my guess is that what they are looking at is that the buy and the sell prices, which always have a slight gap, this difference goes to the clearing agency and or brokerage, might have been manipulated through collusion to magnify this amount, and the profits thereof.

Here’s hoping that some bankers are frog-marched off of Wall Street.