Month: August 2009

A Bit of Meta, and Philosophy

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Portrait of the Blogger as a Young Aardvark

I post in my own name, with my own face, albeit a face* from 30 years ago.

I came to the decision not to use pseudonyms when I was at school, and I realized that everyone was calling me by my computer ID, Cerebus, as in Dave Sim’s comic book Aardvark, so I spent 2-3 years getting people to call me “Matthew” again.

So, now I stick with my name. It is a matter of personal aesthetics, not integrity, and no level of truth or integrity is intended by my use of my own name.

If you think that I am right, follow the links, and confirm.

If you think that I am wrong, follow the links, and confirm.

In any case, one of the writers (probably multiple writers, according to Felix Salmon) who posts as “Tyler Durden” at the blog financial zero hedge, got outed by the New York Post.

I figure an anonymous blogger who generates enough buzz to have someone hunt them down and out them deserves a look by me.

Zero hedge is now on my blogroll. They have an attitude, and I like attitude.

*And hair, which I miss.

Economics Update

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The Big Picture looks at the sales numbers

Seeing as how I did not post on Friday, there was a tornado watch, and my kids were freaking, I’ll start with the big story from last week, which was that existing home sales rose to a 2 year high.

Of course, the 1st thing that comes to mind is that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are supplying this data, and it’s suspect.

The 2nd thing that comes to mind is that a remarkably large portion of these sales are distressed.

The Big Picture runs the numbers more fully (chart pr0n is from this link, click to see full size), and while mentioning these two points, notes some other interesting bits of information:

  • “If not for a surprise and suspect 16k increase in Northeast condo sales, Existing Home Sales would have been lower month-over-month and only up 12k units from July 2008, which was the worst year on record for housing.”
  • Non-seasonally adjusted data actually shows a decrease, and given the high proportion of foreclosures and short sales, seasonal adjustment is actually not going to be accurate right now; the market is just too fracked right now.
  • Prices are still falling.
  • Sales less foreclosure activity (bottom pic) is way down.

Furthermore, we are also seeing the effect of the housing cash for clunkers tax credit, which allows a 10% tax credit (max $8K) on purchases for “New” (not owned a house in 3 years) buyers, but the home has to close before November 30, which really means having the sale done in the next 8 weeks or so, so it’s another blip, unless, as CR notes, the NAR and NAHB manage to successfully bribe lobby for an extension.

Note that the tax credit can be used for a down-payment, which further distorts the market.

He have a housing market that is really still heading down, albeit more slowly, despite massive federal subsidies.

If there were really a return to health in the housing market, then Taylor Bean, the 12th largest mortgage company in the US, would not be filing for bankruptcy.

As to housing news for the rest of us, the rate at which mortgage holders who have fallen behind catch up on their payments, the so-called “cure rate”, for holders of prime mortgages, has fallen to 6.6%, down from 45% in the years 2000-2006, and very close to the rate for Alt-A (4.3%) and sub-prime (5.3%).

Meanwhile, treasuries have risen again, driving yields down, though it is unclear how much is risk aversion increasing, and how much is the Federal Reserve buying more of the securities.

It does mean that investors believe that the Fed won’t be raising rates for a while yet, though the Bank of Israel just raised its benchmark rate, which indicates optimism on their part.

My guess is that they are wrong, simply because they are the 1st central bank to do so, and my money is on any first mover jumping the gun.

Then again, they could be right. The Chicago Fed July National Activity Index rose sharply in July, increasing to -0.74 in July from -1.82.

Even though the numbers still show contraction, the delta is impressive.

Meanwhile, in energy, crude oil is at a 10-month high on “green shoots” in the economy, and retail gasoline prices have remained basically unchanged, despite falls at the wholesale level.

The dollar was up slightly, largely in a holding pattern as traders wait for new consumer spending and housing data.

Why Does Anyone Hire Juan Williams?

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Juan Williams and Tree:
Stupid is in the foreground

When you look at his history, his aggressive opining on Clarence Thomas’ sexual harrassment of Anita Hill when he was harassing an underling him self, lasting about 3 months as host of Talk of the Nation because he was too stupid to do a marginally competent interview, and his reflexive embrace of the right wing talking points of the day, most recently with the idea that passing anything without Republican support is the “nuclear option”, one has to wonder why this man has a job, aside, of course, from Fox News, where he fulfills the critical role as their token “Tom”.

His history of incompetence, dishonesty, lack of knowledge about what he comments on, and ethical lapses, he should he should not be working anywhere near news.

Maybe he can get a job at the AEI or the Hudson institute. It’s where right wing tools go to die.

Who Got Pictures of Max Baucus Sodomizing an Underage Goat?

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Because Max Baucus (DINO-MT) has now explicitly stated that he supports a public option:

U.S. Senator Max Baucus has finally broken his silence regarding his personal position on including a public option in health care reform legislation. Last Monday night (8/17), in an unprecedented conference call to Montana Democratic central committee chairs, the powerful leader of the Senate Finance Committee told his strongest supporters that he supported a public option.

While discussing the obstacles to getting a public option through the Senate, he assured his forty listeners, “I want a public option too!”

….

Seriously, I’m beginning to think that some of the Blue Dog types (technically, Blue Dogs are only a caucus in the House of Representatives) are starting to get some very serious push-back, and it scares them.

Can We Please Give Texas Back to Mexico?

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Or maybe Canada, or Belize, or Iran or Myanmar (Burma); I don’t care, who gets Texas.

The latest bit of wankery of the Texas State Board of Education on the curriculum, where they are looking to replace Thurgood Marshall with Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich, Focus on the Family, Phyllis Schlafly, the Moron Moral Majority, Rush Limbaugh, Mike Huckabee, and the National Rifle Association makes it pretty clear that the intersection of Texan and American values is pretty much a null set.

I really cannot add anything to Atrios’ analysis, “I guess what bugs me most of all isn’t that they’re trying ram through a conservative-only version of history, it’s that they’re all obviously really f%$#ing stupid.”

Why the F-35 is Better Than the F-22*

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Weapons Pylons

You see, the F-35 has it, , with “it” being qualified external air to ground munitions, and can use them when the situation demands it, in places like Iraq and Afghanistan but the F-22 doesn’t. (The F-22 can carry external tanks, and AIM-132s, IIRC)

That configuration is going to be used for vibration testing.

The Raptor has theoretical provisions for external weapons stowage, but there are no plans to actually develop or qualify any sort of external stowage scheme, and the pylons are not low observable.

When you are going against a bunch of mujaheddin with an RPGs and AKs in a pick up truck, it’s nice to deliver 500 lb of boom on their heads.

*Truth be told, I think that they are both wastes of resources.

Birthers Want Obama to Drop Trou* On National TV

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Shrek: Do you think he’s maybe compensating for something?

Yep, Jesus’ General, who reads Free Republic so I don’t have to, has noted that the latest meme: If Barack Obama is not circumcised, it would mean that he was not born in the US in 1961, because everyone got circumcised then.

There are some problems here.

It is indeed true that circumcision rates were high, well over 90%, in the US in the early 1960s, it was neither absolutely universal nor mandatory. Additionally, circumcision amongst Muslims is considered Sunnah, or a highly recommended tradition, and as a Muslim Obama would have been circumcised.

So if he were a closet Muslim, he would be circumcised anyway.

In any case let me be the first to say, great googly moogly, someone has issues.

The fascination that the denizens of FR with Democratic presidential penises, which says something about them, probably more about penis size insecurity than anything else.

*Meaning pull down his pants, and show us his penis.

Industry, MDA Buoyed By New Thaad Flight-Test Data

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THAAD Launch


Image of Target (l) and Debris Intercepts

It appears that the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is beginning to get a handle on the problems that have plagued the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) program, (paid subscription required) with the latest test having two interceptors fired in salvo.

The 1st missile hit the target, and the 2nd missile struck the largest piece of debris remaining.

A lot of the problem has been the hand off between the radar and the missile’s own IIR seeker:

“Things look different to an X-band sensor than they do to an IR sensor. Something that really has a lot of sharp edges . . . will look big and bright to an RF [sensor], but it might be real, real cold,” says McGrath. “So, it doesn’t look that way to an IR [sensor]. I like to think of this as our two-color approach to life.”

Additionally, it looks like they are working at integrating the system with the Navy’s Aegis fire control system, which implies that the the reports that the MDA is looking at a larger 21, up from 14½ in diameter booster, (paid subscription required) the size of the standard Navy torpedo, cruise missile, and Standard missile, are about possibly mounting the missile on board a ship, as well as improving the missile kinematics.

Still, I am dubious of reports that
the MDA is looking at moving to deployment on any of its systems. (paid subscription required)

Simply put, the record, even if improved lately is just not there, and the technology remains ruinously expensive.

Alligator Helo to Start Radar Trials

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The Russians are starting trials with a radar roughly equivalent to the Longbow for the Kamov Ka-52 helicopter, with a roughly 30km range. (paid subscription required)

The cost for the 2nd seat and radar that were added in the upgrade from the Ka-50 is that a lot of the armor has been removed to keep weight below 10 metric tonnes.

Mostly I’m posting this for the picture, because I’ve always found the coaxial helicopters to look “cool”

Here’s Hoping for Some Real Gail Time

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I’ve been following the tussle between the Swiss Bank UBS and the IRS over account for information for some time, and the fact that there is now a settlement which involves handing over account information for about 4500 people, and that prosecutors are working on over 150 criminal tax evasion cases is a very good thing.

Even better is the fact that there is an amnesty deadline in September, and neither UBS nor the Feds are revealing which accounts have turned over, which is having the rich pig tax evaders running around like chickens with their heads cut off, wondering whether or not they are among those accounts turned over.

One of the effects of the tax amnesty program is that about a dozen more banks have now been fingered as having aided clients in evading taxes.

Let’s be clear, for this to have a meaningful effect, there need to be dozens of prosecutions, and a significant number of people both imprisoned and made paupers by this process.

That is the only way that repeat fraud will be deterred.

Well, Dr. Krugman, this Liberal Never Trusted Obama

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I figured that he would throw progressives and liberals under the bus since the entire Donnie McClurkin affair, when Obama deliberately threw gays under a bus to win the South Carolina primary.

He’s done it with:

  • Rapid withdrawal from Iraq.
  • Releasing torture photos.
  • His support of “fair trade”.
  • Stupid tax cuts in the stimulus package.
  • Pursuing war crimes by Bush and His Evil Minions™
  • Bailing out the banks.
  • Gays, particularly with Don’t Ask Don’t Tell.
  • The use of civilian courts to try terrorists.
  • Closing Guantanamo (with an assist from craven Congressmen).
  • Ra

So now, Paul Krugman notices that progressives have finally drawn a line in the sand on the public option:

It’s hard to avoid the sense that Mr. Obama has wasted months trying to appease people who can’t be appeased, and who take every concession as a sign that he can be rolled.

Indeed, no sooner were there reports that the administration might accept co-ops as an alternative to the public option than G.O.P. leaders announced that co-ops, too, were unacceptable.

So progressives are now in revolt. Mr. Obama took their trust for granted, and in the process lost it. And now he needs to win it back.

Gee, you think?

I’ve been saying this for over a year.