Well, the first set of numbers for August job losses have come out, and ADP forecasts a drop of 298K non-farm payroll jobs, the lowest number since last September, and the Dickensian-named Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, has reported that there were 76,456 jobs cut, well down from July, but about 2K more than June. (Note: these are apples and oranges. The 1st is the total delta in employment, and the 2nd is total layoffs.)=
These numbers are not good, they are still on the minus side, but they are better, as is the revised BLS numbers for productivity, which show a 6.6% annual rate of increase.
Still, we saw consumer bankruptcies up 24% YoY, and they are on a pace to hit 1.4 million this year.
In finance, Treasuries were up, and yields down, on the release of the Federal Reserve Board’s minutes, which show a bit more concern about the recovery, and the VIX (Volatility IndeX) is up, which would tend to indicate that the current rally is on its last legs.
In real estate, mortgage applications fell, even though rates were down.
ADP’s job loss numbers pushed both the dollar and crude oil down, largely because even though they were an improvement over the prior month, they were worse than forecast.