Month: September 2009

Brazil Deal FX-2 Not Done

It appears that the deal has not been sealed, much less finalized, and the Brazilian Defense Minister is saying that the Gripen and Super-Hornet. “could be still allowed to “redefine” their offers for the FX-2 contract.”

My guess is that deal was 98% done at the time of the initial announcement, and the Brazil is angling for more support, either technically or via purchase, for their C-390 transport.

Background here.

Obama to Switch Parties*

President Obama stunned the political world today by announcing he will switch political parties, and soon become a Republican. “It seems the only way we’re going to get bipartisanship in this town is if I lead the way,” he said, in brief remarks before leaving for vacation. “The Republicans have refused to work with me because I’m a Democrat, and Republicans’ biggest strength has always been the ability to fall into line with whatever their leaders tell them, unlike other certain unnamed political parties in America…” (the president appeared to cough several times at this point, although one of his coughs sounded suspiciously like the word “Democrats,” if truth be told…). The president, clear-throated now, continued, “So I will now be the leader of the Republican Party, and they will fall in line with what I tell them to we’re going to do. The Democrats who are interested in bipartisanship can join us to pass Medicare-for-all, instead of the Rube Goldberg machine which they have been attempting to construct.”

link

*For the humor impaired, this is satire.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Corus Bank, N.A., Chicago, IL
  2. Brickwell Community Bank, Woodbury, MN
  3. Venture Bank, Lacey, WA

Note that with assets of $7 billion, Corus is a large bank failure, the 3rd largest bank failure of the year.

A lot of these smaller banks would be alive if Obama, Geithner, and Summers weren’t so determined to make the “to big to fail” zombies even bigger.

Full FDIC list

The Return of the Fixed-Price Development Contract

Case in point, the next iteration of the Small Diameter Bomb, the SDB II, will be have a fixed price development contract.

This represents a welcome change in philosophy:

The theory is that technologies should be mature enough (technology readiness level 6, or tested in an operationally relevant environment, in Pentagon parlance) to enable accurate cost and schedule estimates by industry bidders competing for a development contract. This approach shifts more responsibility to contractors to keep their proposal promises. For the Pentagon, however, there is also risk. Requirements must be well-articulated and not altered in order to reap the benefits of a fixed-price contract. Once change orders are requested, leverage over contract price is lost.

I would actually go further, and make cost and schedule unalterable requirements statutorily, and prohibit, and possibly criminalize, any effort made by contractors and procurement personnel from changing this.

The article notes that this change is, “Raising questions among some industry executives about how much risk they will have to assume as they compete for Defense Dept. business,” but this is not surprising.

Defense contracting under Bush and His Evil Minions was an exercise in all reward, no risk, for defense contractors, which resulted in skyrocketing costs, horrendous schedule slips, and a dearth of solutions for the Marines and soldiers on the ground.

Abortion Wingnut Shot Dead

James Pouillon is actually one of 2 people murdered, and the motivation wasn’t political, except that the person was settling scores, and the shooter was sick and tired of his habit of carrying, “Big signs with very graphic pictures of fetuses,” and showing them to children as they entered school.

That being said, the money quote is about the other victim, Mike Fuoss:

The police said the suspect told them that he had been involved in another shooting Friday at a gravel company, Fuoss Gravel, in nearby Owosso Township. The company’s owner, Mike Fuoss, 61, was found dead in his office around 8 a.m.

Prosecutors said Mr. Fuoss was not involved in abortion protests and had no link to Mr. Pouillon. The suspect was angry at him for another reason, Ms. Edwards said.

(emphasis mine)

So this is some crazy going postal and settling scores, but in 24 hours Pouillon will be a martyr to the Christo-Fascists will use it to call for retribution.

I expect to see one shooting a week, or more, by year’s end unless Obama and Holder go full patriot act on the whole movement today.

Zim Update

Well, it’s been about a month, so it’s time for another update on what is happening in Zimbabwe.

The two biggest pieces of news are Robert Mugabe’s health, he is 85 years old, and there are officially denied rumors that he has gone to Qatar for prostate cancer treatment, and he has missed some significant meetings.

Additionally, we are beginning to see senior ZANU-PF members vying for position, with, for example, someone having put up the party youth group (I assume that this mean young adults) to call for the removal of John Nkomo and Joyce Mujuru from the party presidium.

We are also seeing the situation with the Chiadzwa diamond fields get out of hand,with a threat by the world Diamond Council to suspend Zimbabwe from the Kimberly Process certification, which would label one of their few sources of hard currency “blood diamonds,” though threat comes with a statement which immediately backtracks from the threat, though they are making noise about revisiting the issue in November.

The Parliament has also opened an investigation into the accusations of brutality, corruption, and slave labor, and the World Federation of Diamond Bourses has made a call for the prompt release of the Kimberly report.

The reason that this is significant is because it is a sign of loss of control by Mugabe. It’s fairly clear that he feels that he cannot give the order for the Zimbabwean military to stand down in Chiadzwa because it would eliminate one of the few remaining means that he has to bribe reward loyalists, and it is unclear if the army would obey if he were to give the order.

This is an indication that Mugabe is losing power within ZANU-PF as people look to his exit.

On a more prosaic level, it looks like Mugabe is trying to kill Tsvangerai again: He has had to sack somemembers of his security team for “misplacing” transport for a significant portion of his security detail, which left him ill-protected…..Then again, maybe I’m just a cynic.

Meanwhile, the Mutambara faction of the MDC appears to be in the process of self destructing, with conflicting claims as to who leads the MDC-M, reports that the party has split in 3 parts, 3 MDC-M MPs moving to join the MDC-T, and Mutambara being unable to convince an MP from his own party to step down and take an ambassadorship in order to allow deputy president Gibson Sibanda to keep his position on cabinet as Minister of State for National Healing and Reconciliation. (The constitution prohibits a cabinet post being held by someone not an MP for more than 3 months)

We had Zuma taking over for the completely useless and biased Mbeki as mediator, and while we got some strong language, such as Zuma calling Mugabe’s behavior in negotiations deviant, but the results, despite Tsvangerai’s pleas for action, have not gone beyond a SADC call for an extraordinary summit.

Most notably, you have the issues of Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor Gideon Gono and Attorney General, Johannes Tomana, both tremendously corrupt and incompetent ZANU-PF loyalists, which means that the power of the purse and state violence (though both the police and military) remain firmly in the hands of Mugabe.

With the elimination of the $Z as a currency, this has reduced Gono’s power to pay off people, but he is once again attempting to reintroduce the local currency, though Finance Minister Tendai Biti is fighting him tooth and nail on this.

The harassment of MDC members of parliament continues, with police making trumped up arrests of opposition MPs.

It’s clearly an attempt to reduce the MDC majority in parliament, since once convicted, they can no longer serve, and so there would have to be by-elections.

The problem for the ZANU-PF with this strategy is that they are polling in the single digits, (also here).

ZANU-PF has proposed 5-year extension on the current 1-year freeze on elections, but the MDC has made it clear that it has no interest in such a proposal.

The 2nd of ZANU-PF is to make elections impossible, either by pleading poverty, or by refusing to staff the election board created by the unity government agreement.

Meanwhile, the IMF has issued $400 million in foreign currency reserves, which would be good news, except for the fact that Gideon Gono (remember him?) is insisting that he is in charge of disbursing all these funds.

I’d sooner have Bernie Madoff managing that money.

Cruising Wiki For Information on South Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District

Just in case you want to get the lay of the land of SC’s 2nd Congressional district, I checked out recent electoral history for the district.

Truth be told, it’s a tough row to hoe:

Year Democrat Votes Pct Republican Votes Pct
2000 Jane Frederick 110,672 41% Floyd Spence 154,338 57%
2001 Brent Weaver 14,034 25% Joe Wilson 40,355 73% <Special Election
2002 (no candidate) Joe Wilson 144,149 84%
2004 Michael Ellisor 93,249 33% Joe Wilson 181,862 65%
2006 Michael Ellisor 76,090 37% Joe Wilson 127,811 63%
2008 Rob Miller 158,627 46% Joe Wilson 184,583 54%

Though the best performance against Wilson to date was Rob Miller’s loss by 8%, so it is entirely reasonable to consider this race to be competitive, particularly since Miller has raised about $¾ million, $733,608.00 on Act Blue alone at the time of this post (below break), and Mr. Miller has name recognition from his last run, and he has generated a lot of buzz in the past 36 hours or so.

God Bless the Onion

This is the best way that I can imagine to commemorate 911.*


Americans Observing 9/11 By Trying Not To Masturbate

*By “This”, I mean watching this video, not any action, or non action, regarding one’s genitals.
September 11, 2001 was the start of a period of prolonged insanity for the United States, and while there are indications that psychological recovery is on the way, we really need to stay on our meds.

It Looks Like Campaign Finance Limits Are Dead

At least, that is my take on reading Dahlia Lithwick’s observations in court.

We will be seeing corporate sponsored electioneering in 2010, but I expect the 5-4 decision to add a twist which will allow labor unions, which are outspent under today’s rules, to continue to remain in their straight jacket.

We have some profoundly deceitful and venal men on the bench.

This will likely be the 2nd most disgraceful decision in the past 9 years.

Vote Fraud Discovered in Afghanistan


I’m shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on here!
Shaded Regions Indicate Fraud

It appears that the level of vote fraud is so bad that even the Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC), a group of Karzai toadies, has admitted to widespread vote fraud:

There was “clear and convincing evidence of fraud” in Paktika, Kandahar and Ghazni, areas that largely backed President Hamid Karzai, it said.

Earlier this week results from 600 stations where there were suspected irregularities were “quarantined”.

The ECC said in a statement that its investigations in Ghazni found “a number of indicators of fraud”.

Those included unfolded ballots, votes for candidates inserted inside bundles for other candidates, miscounted ballots, missing material, uniformity of markings, seal numbers which did not match numbers on the record of seals and lists of voters with numerous fictitious card numbers, the statement said.

All from Karzai strongholds. (Bottom pic, darker regions)

What a surprise.

Cramdown Has Returned

And it is about bloody time.

Barney Frank has announced plans to reintroduce a bill to give bankrputcy judges the ability to modify mortgages, it appears that the banks got cocky, and promptly forgot promises of voluntary mortgage mods, as the picture (from here) shows.

It appears that members of Congress are shocked that banks are not willing to do mortgage mods, when they:

  • Cost them money.
  • Require them to post the losses to their balance sheets immediately, as opposed to marking them to face value for the next few years.

Campaign contributions and lobbyists are a much better investment than helping people.

The Gun Market Likes Obama

2009 Sales (not shown) Even Bigger

But not in the way that you thing.

There has been much written about how Barack Obama inspired paranoia is boosting gun sales.

Well, we are now seeing some indications that this string is playing out in the handgun market. On June 22, Smith and Wesson was talking about a huge backlog:

Our firearms backlog continued to increase dramatically during the quarter, and reached its peak at $268 million dollars by the end of April. That level is $218 million dollars higher than the same quarter one year ago.

(emphasis mine)

That’s a 436% increase in backlog.

But on September 9, the news is not quite so rosy:

Our firearms backlog was $177.5 million at the end of the first quarter. Cancellations reduced backlog by approximately 10% during the quarter. It is important to note that our backlog always represents product that has been ordered but not yet shipped. As a result, it is possible that portions of the backlog could be canceled if demand should suddenly drop.

(emphasis mine)

As John Hempton notes, speaking from an investors perspective:

The backlog dropped from $268 million to $178 million – a drop of 90 million. Ten percent of that (say $27 million) was order cancellation – but a net $63 million of sales came from the backlog. Total sales were 102 million – and less than 100 million in firearms. The rate at which Americans are placing orders for new Smith and Wesson handguns is collapsing.

The company did not tell us the current forward order book. At that rate of collapse what they are facing is a disaster.

(emphasis original)

It appears that the right wing is running out of hate.

I’m shocked, I thought that it was an inexhaustible commodity.