Month: October 2009

You Mean They Were Still Playing

So, it appears that the band A-Ha is splitting up after 25 years.

I was never much on their big hit as a song, Take Me On, but the video was great:

I listened to the album Hunting High and Low, which is where the song came from when I was borrowing a car. The rest of the songs seemed a lot better, and had more substance

Go figure.

One other note, the actress in this is the quintessential big hair 1980s chick.

Barack and Rahm Need to Get Over Themselves

So, as a result of putting Republicans (Olympia Snow) and insurance whore DINOs in the driver’s seat in the Senate, the White House is getting flack from Gerry McEntee, the president of AFSME, and the Obama and His Stupid Minions are describing this behavior as, “gratuitous slaps.”

Tough noogies, kids. The Obama administration has been running the process on healthcare reform, and pretty much everything else as a war on the “Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party”, and somehow they are surprised when a Union President, would oppose what is literally a tax on his members just because Obama is desperate to put his name on something … anything … that he can call health care reform.

We need more of what Mr. McEntee is doing, not less.

H/t AMERICAblog.

More Pigs Flying on Financial Regulation

So, the politically connected academic who has made millions selling access to Wall Street banks, Larry Summers, has decided that real systemic regulation is necessary in the American financial system:

“Financial institutions that have benefited from government support can, should and must use this moment to think about what they can do for their country — by accepting the necessary regulation to protect the American people,” Summers said in remarks prepared for delivery at the Economist’s Buttonwood Gathering in New York. “There is no financial institution that exists today that is not the direct or indirect beneficiary of trillions of dollars of taxpayer support for the financial system.”

What’s more, his comments appear to be a part of deliberate push-back from the White House against the financial sector, where unnamed officials are describing themselves as “frustrated“.

Given who is working this issue *cough* Geithner and Summers *cough*, I have to conclude that this is being driven by political considerations, Obama has finally realized the depth and breadth of the anger against the banks and their lavish pay packages, and understands that there is a real political cost, one that will be born by the Democratic Party generally, and Barack Obama in particular, if the Wall Street banks continue to be what they are.

So, We Just Learned Something About the Abortion Nut Who Got Shot

I posted about it when James L. Pouillon got killed, and it now appears that his family speaks, at least his son, James L. Pouillon, and it ain’t pretty:

It will be impossible for some to believe, but my dad really didn’t care about aborton.

He did this to stalk, harass, terrorize, scream at, threaten, frighten, and verbally abuse women. He had a pathologic hatred of women: his mom, my mom, everyone.

After my mom finally left him and he lost his favorite punching bag the violence and abuse that was always contained within our 4 walls was unleased on the people of Owosso.

My dad used the pro-life movement and 1st Amendments foundations to defend him, support him, and enable him. He fooled them all.

He was at the high shool because my niece was there, and female family members were always his favorite targets.

Again, my dad didn’t care about abortion. He wanted to hurt people, upset people. He enjoyed making people suffer.

His goal was to be shot on a sidewalk. His goal was to make someone so angry, to make them feel so terrorized, to make them feel the only way they could make him stop was to kill him.

His pro-life stance was the most perfect crime I personally know of. He hid behind the 1st Amendment and was allowed to stalk, terrorise, harass, be obsene, ect. These things are crimes. Offending people isn’t a crime, and having different political views isn’t a crime, but he committed several crimes over the last 20 years and got away with it.

Yes I really am his oldest son. Owosso is now rid of a mad man.

One wonders if he is the exception rather than the rule for right wing extremists.

I’m Agreeing with Richard Shelby?

It’s true. As a part of updating financial regulations, Senator Shelby is trying to change the way in which the presidents of the Federal Reserve district banks are selected, by removing the ability of the lending institutions subject to that Fed bank to nominate their new president, he correctly notes that, “Any institution that is going to be involved in any way picking their regulator is not good policy.”

As to the current governance structure:

Each of the 12 Fed district banks has a nine-member board that includes three bankers, three non-bankers chosen by banks and three non-banker directors picked by the Fed’s Senate- confirmed governors in Washington. The directors nominate a president who is approved by the Board of Governors. The presidents vote on interest-rate decisions on a rotating basis, with New York having a permanent vote.

The idea that banks can hand pick one of their primary regulators has always been a bad idea, so I would go further, and remove banks from selecting the directors of the regional banks too.

While we are at it, how about shortening the terms of members. It’s currently 14 years, and it’s too long, and makes the board far to unresponsive and insular.

Additionally, one of the controls on the behavior of the Fed is meaningful criticism of its actions in academic economic publications, but the central bank has control over most of the academic economic publications, because so many of the editors out there are also on the Federal Reserve payroll, so a legal injunction prohibiting anyone working for the fed from acting as an editor of an economics journal would be a good thing.

Damn.

So, the House of Representatives by a vote of 307-114 has passed an amendment to the Freedom of Information Act which exempts torture, because, I guess, everyone in Washington wants them covered up, because with knowledge is the possibility of accountability, and accountability is an anathema to the Beltway Boyz.

What is most repulsive is that this is designed just to cover up Bushie malfeasance:

To follow up on my earlier post about Rep. Louis Slaughter (D-N.Y.) and her speech on her colleagues’ move to amend the Freedom of Information Act to prevent the release of photographs depicting abuse of detainees in U.S. custody, it’s worth looking at the conference report on the bill. The bill is called the “Protected National Security Documents Act of 2009,” but refers not to any “documents” per se, but only to any “photograph” taken between Sept. 11, 2001 and Jan. 22, 2009, that “relates to the treatment of individuals engaged, captured, or detained after September 11, 2001, by the Armed Forces of the United States in operations outside of the United States.”

(emphasis mine)

Big surprise, the guy supporting this the strongest is Joe Lieberman.

M4/M16 Problems

One of the things that I did not cover in my discussion of the firefight at Camp Keating was the performance of the weapons there.

Specifically, it appears that the M4s carbines and M249 “Minimi” SAWs started to fail over the course of the fight.

There are a number of links, but this release a draft report from the Combat Studies Institute seems to be the most definitive. (you can see other accounts , here, here, here, and here.

The big issue here is that there are reports of both the M4 and M249 failing as the engagement went forward.

Since both weapons were failing, with one (M4) having a short stroke gas-tube operation, and the other (M249) having a long stroke piston, it’s pretty clear that the method of operation of these weapons are directly responsible for these failures.

Here is what I think is the pertinent quote:

Stafford crawled back up to the protection of the southern post of the OP, where he watched Specialist Bogar put up a heroic defense, nearly single-handedly, with his SAW. Bogar placed it on top of the sandbags, notwithstanding as Stafford noted, “I’m just watching that boulder pop with rounds coming in.” Stafford was badly wounded and drifting in and out of consciousness, but he distinctly remembered, “Bogar had just set his SAW on top of the sandbags and he was just kind of spraying, going through SAW rounds pretty quick. I remember him, loading and spraying, loading and spraying.” At the Crow’s Nest, Specialist Ayers was also going cyclic with the M-240. Stafford also remembered being impressed at the volume of fire that Ayers was pouring out, “I could also hear the 240 going off above me in the Crow’s Nest, because Ayers was just ripping them apart. I could hear Rainey screaming at Ayers not to melt the barrel on the 240 and to control his fires.”

Specialist Bogar fired approximately six hundred rounds at a cyclic rate of fire from his SAW when that weapon became overheated, and eventually jammed the bolt forward. Specialist Stafford noted, “Bogar was still in our hole firing quite a bit. Then Bogar’s SAW jammed. Basically it just got way overheated, because he opened the feed tray cover and I remember him trying to get it open and it just looked like the bolt had welded itself inside the chamber. His barrel was just white hot.”

(emphasis mine)

While I think that “White Hot” is probably an exaggeration, I would think that weapons would fail with the barrel still “cherry” hot, but it appears that there was a lot of shooting going on and the weapons were getting very hot as a result, at which point things like cook-off of rounds, expansion of parts, etc. begin to be a factor.

I will note that the M249 is a weapon that fires from an open bolt, which means that you have to be pumping a lot of rounds down range to get it that hot, so fire discipline, as alluded to in exchange above regarding the M240, a 7.62mm belt machine gun that is essentially the M249’s big brother.

This may have been a situation where the weapons were simply fired beyond their design capabilities.

Part of the reason for this is that the weapons used by both had similar effective ranges.

The AK-47, because of its relative lack of accuracy, is really not effective beyond 200m, particularly in the hands of a typical insurgent, and the M4, with its short (14½”) barrel and relatively light round, lacks lethality beyond that range.

The M16, by contrast, with its longer barrel, would be able to place effective fire on the enemy at more than 300m.

Had the soldiers been using the M16, they would have been able to engage the enemy before the enemy could engage them, and it is not entirely clear to me (please, someone educate me) why the troops were issued a carbine in a non-urban area where engagement distances would likely be longer.

Additionally, it appears that the position was located primarily due to non-combat considerations, which made it less defensible than it should have been.

All of these contributed to a very intense firefight, and it appears that the intensity of the combat was a significant cause as to the failures of these weapons.

Simply put, a personal weapon, or a squad automatic weapon, are not designed to throw that many rounds down range in that short a time.

One question that is not addressed in this report, at least not in this early draft of the report, is whether fire discipline was maintained, or if the troops were reverting to “spray and pray”.

My guess is that fire discipline was maintained, at least to the degree that discipline is possible when you are being attacked by a heavily armed force that outnumbers you, but I have no direct military or combat experience to evaluate this.

That being said, I think that the M4 should be replaced. Most of the other modern western armies, the Germans excepted, have switched to a Bullpup design, and as such, they have longer barrels, and shorter overall lengths than the M4.

See the table below for a comparison:

Weapon Barrel Length Overall Length
M4 14.5 in 29.8 in (stock retracted)
Tavor T.A.R-21 18.1 in 28.5 in

Additionally, while there are advantages to gas tube operation, generally lighter weight and better accuracy because there are fewer moving parts, one consistent complaint about the AR-15 and its children is that the weapons require meticulous, almost obsessive cleaning.

I admire the breakthroughs that Eugene Stoner made when he created the weapon, and many of those innovations, the use of plastics and high-strength lightweight alloys, continue today, but I think that the use of the gas tube has been shown to be problematic.

That being said, I would favor moving to a new weapon, as opposed to something like the gas piston retrofit, as the existing weapon has problems that are inherent in the design (i.e. barrel length and overall length).

In my perfect world, the Army and Marines would purchase one of the Bullpups already in service, as opposed to developing a new weapon itself, but given the nature of defense procurement in the US, particularly the Army Ordinance’s rather parochial view towards foreign weapons, I think that this unlikely.

Note: I have never served, and I’ve never shot anything more substantial than a .22 short rifle for in a riflery class in summer camp, so if I am wrong, please tell me in the comments.

All I ask is some detail. Don’t tell me I’m an idiot, show me that I’m an idiot.

Russia’s Adopts Nuclear First Strike Policy

While worrisome, it represents a reversal of the Soviet/Russian “no first strike” policy adopted in the 1980s, but it should be noted that this new policy will not will be effectively identical to that of the US, which has repudiated calls for it to take a “no first strike” policies since the 1980s.

It’s nothing to tear one’s hair out about, unless you are Georgian President Saakashvili, where it might be seen as a shot across the bow towards NATO involvement in the region….But then again, he doesn’t tear out his hair, he chews on his tie.

“In situations critical for national security, a preventive nuclear strike against the aggressor is not ruled out,” he said.

The section of Russia’s military doctrine about the opportunity to use nuclear weapons was formulated to preserve the status of a nuclear power for the Russian Federation. The document states that Russia can apply nuclear deterrence against potential enemies to prevent aggression against Russia and its allies.

I think that the video below puts everything in decent perspective:

GE Promises 56,000 Lb Thrust F136

Bradley Perrett at Ares notes that GE/Rolls Royce has had this this thrust number floating around since at least 2002, and would compare quite favorably to the 43,000 lbs of thrust available in the F135.

It’s clear that the F136 has a larger core than the F135, but at this point GE/Rolls is arguing that this can allow for greater reliability, and perhaps a few hundred pounds more thrust in STOVL mode for the F-35 JSF

The latter looks significant, as the Royal Navy is looking at a “shipborne rolling vertical landing,” basically a relatively low speed (under 150 km/h) non-arrested (!) landing on a carrier to increase bring-back weapons load and to reduce wear and tear on the engines, for vertical landings.

My guess, as is Mr. Perrett’s, is that the 56,000 lbs is the number that they are designing to for the purpose of creating a margin which would allow for reduced maintenance and capacity for upgrades.

In order to go from 43,000 lbs of thrust to 56,000 pounds of thrust in the JSF, I think that there would have to be some major airframe modifications, because there has to be more air flowing through that engine to get that performance, so I would expect significantly altered air inlets, no small change in a stealth aircraft, to realize that thrust level.

One interesting aside in the article, is the “cost” of the lift fan system that was chosen as the winner in this competition: both the GE/Rolls and P&W engines for the original fly-off for between Lockheed-Martin’s X-35 and Boeing’s X-32 delivered a lot more thrust in wingborne mode using when configured Boeing’s direct lift concept.

U.S. Looking at Israeli Iron Fist APS

Click for full size


From Wiki

It looks like the US military is far less sanguine over Raytheon’s Active Protection System (APS), Quick Kill, because the military folks at the AUSA convention were all over the Israeli Iron Fist APS, made by Rafael.

It is similar to, but appears to be a somewhat more capable system than the other Israeli APS, IMI’s Trophy system, in that it can engage KE rounds as well as ATGMs and RPGs.

The concept is somewhat different than both Raytheon’s and IMI’s, with the blast intended to take out incoming missiles and sabot darts, as opposed to shot, which means that the sabot is not actually destroyed, but made to yaw prior to impact, which would reduce penetration.

When one considers that the Israeli standard infantry fighting vehicle is the Namer, which is based on the Merkava chassis, and weighs in at 60T, as versus 40T for the Bradley, the 20T Stryker, and the 20-30T FCS replacement, it may be of somewhat more limited utility.

A sabot yawing 15° or so off the normal may not prevent penetration of the thinner armor, but on the plus side, using of a non-fragmenting charge means that the potential to injure troops operating closely to the vehicle is significantly reduced.

Background here, here, and here.

When Policy Creates Stupidity

David Stevens, HUD’s Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner, basically the head of the Federal Housing Administration, has drawn a line in the sand against legislation increasing the minimum downpayment for an FHA loan from 3.5% to 5%.

This is the same FHA, that has had its reserves sucked dry by increasing defaults on its mortgage (here and here), and now they are fighting against making their loans less likely to default.

The reason given? That, “limiting the pool of eligible home buyers could dampen a fragile housing recovery.”

This is an extension of two largely bipartisan policies:

  • The federal government has been pushing home-ownership aggressively for decades.
  • A desperate attempt to re-inflate the housing bubble.

Both policies have proven disastrous, but decisions are still being made on this basis.

It should be noted that this is the same FHA was spitting in the face of sanity for some time by allowing “seller funded downpayment assistance loans”, where the seller raised the price of the home in order to lend the buyer the money for the downpayment (!). It was called the Down-payment Assistance Program (DAP).

This procedure is one of the reasons that they are in a pickle now, because it made it too easy for people who could not afford house payments to buy a house.

Thankfully, Congress made this illegal, and they are now looking at a further tightening of lending standards, but just as in the case the DAP, they are fighting the change tooth and nail.

Well, Here’s a Shocker

It turns out that most of Timothy “I am not a Banker” Geitner’s friends that he has brought into the Treasury department have made millions working for the banks that wrecked out economy:

Some of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s closest aides, none of whom faced Senate confirmation, earned millions of dollars a year working for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and other Wall Street firms, according to financial disclosure forms.

When you have people overseeing the current system who personally profit from it, fundamental change is not in the offing.

Economics Update (a Day Late)

Click for full size


H/T Calculated Risk for the Graph Pr0n


Yeah, CR again, this time LA Port Traffic

Notwithstanding green shoots, it still appears that consumers, who account for 70% of GDP,* remain pessimistic, with the Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 69.4, down from August’s 73.5, and well below the forecast that the number would be flat.

On the other hand, industrial production rose 0.7% in September, and capacity utilization (see top graph) rose to 70.5%.

You also have a secondary indicator of the economy, port traffic for the LA/Long Beach ports continues to fall.

Additionally, the banks who actually do make loans to real people, as opposed to the Wall Street parasites, are not doing well, with Bank of America posting a loss, and credit card delinquencies are rising.

Wall Street may be doing fine, but main street is still being hammered.

Meanwhile, in energy, the industrial production numbers drove oil to a 12-month high, and the US dollar recovered a bit, though it is still down for the week

*Or maybe not, see here.

Thrust-Vectoring EJ200 for Typhoon

So it looks like Eurojet is looking at getting into the thrust vectoring game.

It also looks like they will be selling it on improved economics, based on the use of lower thrust settings for takeoff and landing, and improved straight-line performance through reduced trim drag, rather than any massive increase in agility.

This is not surprising: At the speeds at which combat generally occurs, aerodynamic surfaces just work better.

For all the play over airshow maneuvers like the Cobra, etc., you have to be out of energy and very slow for them to work, which mirrors Colonel Fornof’s talks on dealing with the thrust vectoring F-22 and Su-30MKI, where he says that using thrust vectoring creates opportunities for the opposing aircraft to shoot you down.

Sounds like the old truism of air combat, “Speed is life,” remains true.

Video: