It looks now like the final decision by the Swiss will likely be delayed until 2011, (paid subscription required) and the size of the order may be reduced from 30 to 22 aircraft.

It looks to me like budget considerations are an issue, which would mitigate against the $100-$140 million Eurofighter Typhoon. The Rafale is somewhat cheaper, at about $80 million, and the Gripen is “cheapest” at $40-60 million, which would tend to favor the Gripen.

Additionally, the Gripen is about ½ the size of the competitors, which means that operating costs would be much less, and the aircraft that it is replacing, the F-5 was never the high end of the Swiss AF fighter mix anyway.

Of course, Saab lacks the industrial connections for potential offset deals too, and if the Swiss wish to train at nearby bases, these bases will either have Rafales (France), or Typhoons (Germany, Italy, and Austria) already deployed there, which might simplify support there.

This makes the entire decision process hard to predict, to put it mildly.