Month: November 2009

Is Pop Musician Bryan Adams Being Investigated For His Involvement in a Child Prostitution Ring?

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Of course not. The only crime of Bryan Adams is that he makes crappy music. From a quick look at the Wiki, it appears that he does charity, though I think that his support of PETA is misguided, and so I have no hostility to him, though if one of his song’s comes on, I will change the station.

In perusing his Wiki page, I also discovered that he also does photography, and appears to be pretty good at this, having won some awards.

So, why do I post this? Because Lindsay Beyerstein, aka Majikthise, had a post on the Runners’ World photos of Sarah Palin that ended up in Newsweek, and in her initial post, she named listed the prographer of record as Bryan Adams, when the photographer was actually Brian Adams.

It’s not surprising that she got a complaint from Mr. Adams’ representatives, after all that’s their job, but their threats were over the top:

Maybe Palin didn’t realize that the photographer, Brian Adams, was depicting her this way. If so, he totally fucked her over. But I think she was on board with the concept. If Palin had assailed Runner’s World for making fun of her, I might now take her complaint about Newsweek seriously. She liked the Runner’s World spread, though. She thought it was appropriate. [NB: In an earlier version of this post, I misspelled Brian Adams’ name “Bryan Adams.” Today, I got an email from a firm called Web Sheriff telling me that they’d take legal action if I didn’t apologize to the rock star Bryan Adams and ACI for any injury I might have caused to his reputation. So, I sincerely apologize to Bryan Adams. I wouldn’t want my name associated with these ridiculous pictures either.]

(emphasis original)

Take legal action? What the f$#@ is wrong with these folks?

Needless to say, when folks like this (Web Sheriff, not Mr. Adams) engage in dick swinging like this, they deserve all the satire that they receive.

As to Mr. Adams, I would suggest that you retain someone with a clue to protect your reputation on line, though the best way to improve your reputation would be to stop making record albums.

BTW, it appears that Web Sheriff is a British firm, and Britain’s nutzo libel laws might very well be behind WS’s attitude.

They Can’t Even Get Arrested in This Town

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I am referring, of course to the group of Christo-Fascist bigot whack-doodles who call themselves that Christian Anti-Defamation Commission, who protested the expansion to the hate crimes law outside Department of Justice headquarters.

It turns out that the law requires, that one explicitly plan, or actively incite violence against a protected group, so they could not get themselves arrested, though they did attract counter protesters, who quickly owned them:

No hands were cuffed. In fact, the few cops in attendance were paying no attention to the speakers, instead talking among themselves and checking their BlackBerrys.

The evangelical activists had been hoping to provoke arrest, because, as organizer Gary Cass of the Christian Anti-Defamation Commission put it, “we’d have standing to challenge the law.” But their prayers were not answered. Nobody was arrested, which wasn’t surprising: To run afoul of the new law, you need to “plan or prepare for an act of physical violence” or “incite an imminent act of physical violence.”

Instead of getting arrested, the ministers got something else: A couple of dozen gay activists, surrounding them with rainbow flags and signs announcing “Gaga for Gay Rights” and “I Am a Love Warrior.” By the end, the gay rights activists had taken over the lectern and the sound system and were holding their own news conference denouncing the ministers.

The kicker to all this:

Cass turned angrily to the AV guy. “We’re not on the clock, are we?” He turned with equal anger to Valk. “You guys gonna help us pay for the microphones?”

The gay activist smiled. “God,” he said, “works in mysterious ways.”

In this case, God took the form of Chuck Fazio, from DC Podiums. Fazio was hired by the religious conservatives to provide the sound system for the event, but upon learning of their cause, he decided to donate his proceeds to the gay rights activists and to give them a chance at the microphone before shutting down the amplifiers. “I don’t want bad karma,” he explained, noting with some pride that the lectern they were using was the same one used by Borat on a recent Washington visit.

(emphasis mine)

Heh.

Paul Krugman Has a Very Good Point

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He usually does, but in this case, his point is good even by his standards.

Specifically, he says that the bank bailout that Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner and His Evil Minions™ was so badly executed, and so without consequences to the people who made this mess, that it has completely soured the public on any further attempt by the government to fix the problem:

…..

So could the feds have negotiated a haircut? Yes. It might not have been that much money, but it would have had a lot of symbolic importance. And that matters.

Brad DeLong says that the loss of public trust due to the kid-gloves treatment of bankers has raised the probability of another Great Depression, because the public won’t support another round of bailouts even if it becomes desperately necessary. I agree — but I think the bigger cost is that we’ve greatly increased the chance of a Japanese-style lost decade, with I would now give roughly even odds of happening. Why? Because bank-friendly policies have squandered public trust in all government action: try talking to the general public about stimulus, and it’s all confounded in their minds with the deeply unpopular bailouts.

(emphasis original)

Krugman is talking about Geithner’s decision to pay off AIG’s swaps to the counter parties, like that great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity,* Goldman Sachs at 100¢ on the dollar, which was both stupid and highly unusual:

But Wall Street doesn’t work like that, and never has.

Big financial institutions are a small club, with a shared interest in sustaining the system. Ever since the days of JP Morgan it has been standard practice, in times of crisis, to get major players together in a room and get them to forgo short-term profit maximization on behalf of the industry interests. It happened in the Panic of 1907; it happened in the Latin American debt crisis of the 80s; it happened in the LTCM bailout, which was financed by private firms, not the feds.

I fear that these actions, amongst others, have completely soured the American public on the idea of any government bailout.

To quote a subordinate, who was speaking to Captain Tupolev as they were about to be sunk by their own torpedo, “You arrogant ass. You’ve killed us!”

Let me make this clear: This sad state of affairs is not Geithner’s fault. It would be absurd, and stupid to say, “If only the Czar knew.” This is going on, and continues to go on, because this is what Barack Obama wants.

He has people around him, like Paul Volker, who have been giving him contrary advice, and he chooses not to listen to them.

*Alas, I cannot claim credit for this bon mot, it was coined by the great Matt Taibbi, in his article on the massive criminal conspiracy investment firm, The Great American Bubble Machine.

Texas May Have Outlawed Straight Marriage

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Barbara Ann Radnofsky, Democratic candidate for Texas Attorney General, gave a speech in which she said that the 2005 amendment to the Texas State Constitution bans all forms of marriage:

The amendment, approved by the Legislature and overwhelmingly ratified by voters, declares that “marriage in this state shall consist only of the union of one man and one woman.” But the troublemaking phrase, as Radnofsky sees it, is Subsection B, which declares:

“This state or a political subdivision of this state may not create or recognize any legal status identical or similar to marriage.”

Architects of the amendment included the clause to ban same-sex civil unions and domestic partnerships. But Radnofsky, who was a member of the powerhouse Vinson & Elkins law firm in Houston for 27 years until retiring in 2006, says the wording of Subsection B effectively “eliminates marriage in Texas,” including common-law marriages.

A strict reading of the law does seem to indicate that this is true, since marriage is a, “Legal status identical or similar to marriage,” it appears that marriage is illegal in Texas.

Oopsie.

The late, and much missed, Molly Ivins used to say that Texas was, “Mississippi with good roads,” but not it appears that it appears that Texas is “Mississippi with good roads, and no brains.”

Well, at least they are safe from zombie hordes.

I Think that Herroner is Going to Jail

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So the trial of Baltimore Mayor is over, with the defense resting today, so we have final arguments, juror instructions, and then it’s in the Jury’s hands.

I haven’t followed it that closely, but I’m thinking that we will see a conviction, because Sheila Dixon did not testify.

I know that it’s not supposed to happen, but when a political figure is on trial, and refuses to testify, your average jury does hold it against them.

Background here.

Old Pinko is a F$#@ing Genius

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I’ve known the Old Pinko for years, and we exchange emails frequently, and I sent him notice of the twitter meme about using some celebrities to read the bill if the Republicans demand a full reading on the floor of the Senate.

His response:

They should use folks, perhaps children, who have serious illnesses and no health insurance. That, that would really stick it too them.

I will note, however, that I would probably avoid using children, since the right wing in general, and Michelle Malkin, and her deranged Minions™ in particular, already have a history of going after people whose politics they find distasteful, including 12 year old boys critically injured in auto accidents.

Now, if only he’d post more frequently to his blog.

Economics Update

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The Consumer Price Index is up again, largely on rising fuel prices, with CPI up 0.3%, and down -0.2% year over year, and the “core” CPI, which strips out food and energy, is up 0.2%, up 1.7% year over year for the core rate.

This is raising concerns about inflation (stupid, but it’s the way that these folks think) because energy is still about 14% lower than it was last year, so if equilibrium in oil prices is higher than it is now we may see non trivial (over 2% annual according to the inflation hawks) inflation rates.

Meanwhile, the bad news continues along (see graph pr0n), with housing starts and applications for building permits falling unexpectedly in October. (pics 1, 2, 3, and 4)

Additionally, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) while rising, remained below 50, indicating a continuing contraction in future commercial real estate construction. The ABI leads construction by 9-12 months, so 2010 looks bleak for non-residential building. (pic 5)

There is also the fact that rents are continuing to fall, and since the best metric of house prices is their ratio to renting, this indicates that there housing in general, not just the price of a single family dwelling are still overpriced, and have a way to fall.

Additionally, I think that home sellers are running out of buyers, as mortgage applications fell even though rates were down this week.

The inflation that I mention has spooked the bond market, driving prices down and yields up.

And some news on the weird side, monoliner insurer Ambac announced in its SEC filing that its capital levels were well in excess of regulatory requirements.

Everyone figured that they were due for a takeover by regulators…I guess that “everyone” was wrong.

We are seeing some signs of recovery in international trade, with the Baltic Dry Index, an indicator of the demand for shipping hitting a high for this year.

It appears to be driven by increased Chinese demand for raw materials, and the fact that there are large fleets of ships that have been mothballed that won’t be able to address marked demand for months.

Meanwhile, in energy, oil rose above $80/bbl on a drop in US inventories, and in currency, the dollar fell on statements by a Federal Reserve member that rates would stay low.

Rats Leaving a Sinking Ship

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So, you have a phony newspaper, the Moonie Washington Times, in the process of imploding (see here), and now you are seeing the people who have been kicked to the curb going after the paper.

Case in point, former Washington Times editorial editor and ” vice president of opinion” (whatever the f^%$ that is) Richard Miniter has filed a religious discrimination claim, alleging that he was “coerced” into attending a religious retreat:

The former editorial page editor of the Washington Times has filed a discrimination complaint against the paper, saying he was “coerced” into attending a Unification Church religious ceremony that culminated in a mass wedding conducted by the church’s leader, the Rev. Sun Myung Moon.

Richard Miniter, who was also vice president of opinion, made the claim in a filing Tuesday with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission that also disclosed he was fired last month. He said in an interview that he “was made to feel there was no choice” but to attend the ceremony if he wanted to keep his job, and that executives “gave me examples of people whose careers at the Times had grown after they converted” to the Unification Church. A Times spokesman said the paper would not comment.

The paper has been a money loser for its entire existence, with its deficits being financed through subsidies from the church, and he’s surprised that doing obeisance at Sun Myung Moon’s feet is a part of the job?

This is particularly galling for someone who was their editorial page editor, since their editorial page was arguably the worst in the nation, though, unlike the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, it does not suffer in comparison to their news gathering operation, because it is equally laughable.

It should be noted that at least a part of the right-wing nutjob community is supporting Miniter in this, as Larry Klayman, late of the whack-job Judicial Watch is his attorney, which implies that there some Scaife or Olin money behind this lawsuit.

There is A Meme Going Around Twitter

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It appears that the Republicans are going to insist on having the whole healthcare bill read in the Senate.

The Dems have a team of speed readers standing by to do this, and there is a discussion on twitter as to whether we should give an hour to Christopher Walken or William Shatner to read the bill.

It’s a fascinating concept.

I have two vids after the break to give a compare and contrast Shatner and Walken.

Feel free to add your take in the comments.
[on edit] Yes, Jack Nicholson should be included too.

[on further edit]James Earl Jones as Darth Vader might be a bit much.


Walken reading Lady GaGa’s Poker Face


William Shatner’s seminal I am a Canadian.


Nicholson, 5 Easy Pieces

Unsurprising News

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Click for full size


Surprise! Artist Revenues Increase

One of the claims made by the record distributors is that file sharing cheats the artists out of their fair share.

What’s left off of this statement is that it’s the job of the lables to cheat the artists out of their fair share.

What’s also left unsaid, at least by the music industry, is that the artists make more money in a world where we see widespread file sharing:

An even more striking thing, perhaps, emerges in this second graph, namely that revenues accrued by artists themselves have in fact risen over the past 5 years, despite the fall in record sales. (All the blue bars in the chart above represent revenues that go directly to artists. As you can see, the ‘blue total’ has risen noticeably.) This is mostly because of live revenues, but also because of the growing amount collected by the PRS on behalf of artists, which accounts for a much bigger chunk of industry revenues than most people realise.

The question about IP is whether it promotes, “the progress of science and the useful arts,” and it appears here that the Jihad by the record industry against file sharers does not.

Without the competition of easy file sharing, they would just take more from the artists, which would, in classic economics anyway, decrease the incentives for artists to produce music.

The file sharing campaigns are about keeping record executives’ worthless half brothers on the payroll.

When They Ask You Money for a Stadium

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Remember the Silverdome, in Pontiac Michigan, which cost $55.7 million to build, and was just sold for $583,000.00, not much more than a nice house.

Not a bad deal, when you realize that it also includes a sizable lot as well:

As a result, Leeb said, Pontiac could ill afford to continue paying $1.5 million in annual upkeep for the stadium. With a private owner, the property “will go back on the tax rolls,” he explained.

The 80,000-seat Silverdome was the biggest stadium in the National Football League when it was built in 1975 for $55.7 million [about $220 million in 2009 dollars]. The stadium, which sits on a 127-acre plot, is also the former home of the National Basketball Association’s Detroit Pistons.

Something should be done about the legalized extortion that pro sports franchises engage in, but I don’t expect to see this in my lifetime.

An Interesting Concept

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Click for full size

From the Classic WKRP Episode

If we are in a deflationary spiral, aka a “liquidity trap,” and I believe that we are, then one of the questions is how does one get us out.

suggests that it is essential for the Federal Reserve to engage in actions that make it blindingly clear that holding to cash will be long term disastrous.

The problem right now is that, with inflation being negative, people are all too willing to sit on their cash.

John Hempton has a most unorthodox proposal, that we literally drop large amounts of currency onto the streets of American cities:

You need to convince people not to hold money. You need to convince them that cash is trash.
And to do that you need to convince the public that there will be inflation (the above gross leverage argument notwithstanding).
To do that the Federal Reserve has to be credibly irresponsible. It is not enough to print a couple of trillion dollars (which they have) because everyone thinks (with some justification) that they will suck back the money supply when the crisis is over.
No – you have to be more visibly reckless than that. You have to really convince people that there will be inflation.
So the suggestion in my title is literal. The Federal Reserve should hire a couple of hundred helicopters and load each one 10 million dollars in neatly bound parcels of $1000 each. Total cost $2 billion plus trivial helicopter hire.

Well, running the numbers, a dollar bill weighs about a gram, so let’s bundle 10 $100 bills together, so as not to create an “As God as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly,” issue.

So, $1000.00 would weigh about 11 grams (adding 1g for the wrapper), which means that if you have a helicopter carrying 4400kg in currency, they would be carrying $400,000,000.00.

So he’s wrong. You would only need 5 medium to heavy lift helicopters, or 1 Mi-26, which has a payload of 22 metric tonnes.

You probably want to spread it a bit further out, but still you are well under 100 helicopters, particularly if you allow them to make multiple trips.

Heck, even a Robinson R22 helicopter could carry more than $10 million per sortie.

Signs of the Apocalypse

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Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Bankfein has apologized for Goldman Sachs role in the meltdown:

“We participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret,” Blankfein, 55, said at a conference in New York hosted by the Directorship magazine. “We apologize.”

Notice, of course, that the wrong doing is completely unspecified, but still, given the fact that arrogance is a part of the DNA of that great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity,* Goldman Sachs, there are really only two possibilities here:

  • Someone has pictures of Bankfein sodomizing an underage goat.
  • They are really scared that the villagers with pitch forks are on the way to Congress to change things.

If they are worried about the latter, they have a far more optimistic view of the American public, and American politics, than I do.

*Alas, I cannot claim credit for this bon mot, it was coined by the great Matt Taibbi, in his article on the massive criminal conspiracy investment firm, The Great American Bubble Machine.

Economics Update (Yesterday Too)

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Click for full size

H/t Calculated Risk


Empire State Manufacturing Index


H/t Calculated Risk


The Power of Computers Over Inventory


H/t Calculated Risk

Sorry about missing yesterday, life intervened.

Well, retail sales rose in October, (1st pic)up 1.4% from September’s anemic post “cash for clunkers” numbers.

September was down 2.3%, so you can do the math.

We also had the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Empire State Manufacturing Index falling in November, though it is still above zero, indicating continued growth. (2nd pic)

This is consistent with the small rise in industry capacity utilization. (3rd Pic)

Additionally, we have business inventories falling September, (4th Pic) and it looks like inventory restocking won’t be the thing that makes this a v-shaped recovery.

One interesting note on this graph: You can see a generally downward trend in the ratio of inventory to sales, and it is likely a result of the increasing computerization of retail.

Once you have a better picture of what you need, and when, you need to keep less as a backup.

In real estate, today’s news was grim, with delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) rising 28 basis points (0.28%) in October, to 3.86%, or about 1 in 30.

In home mortgages, delinquencies hit a new record, with 6.25%, or about 1 in 16 mortgages being 60 days or further delinquent, which is a very scary number.

We also have the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index flat in November, at 17, which is a pretty awful number. (5th Pic)

Finally, in currency and energy, the dollar rose on comments by Ben Bernanke which imply support of a strong dollar policy by the fed, and oil rose, largely on the expectation of more demand to support retail activity during the holiday season.

Polls

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Bummer of a birth mark, Governor Paterson

A Couple of updates, one completely predictable that New York Governor David Paterson is polling behind everyone. He trails Andrew Cuomo by 75% to 16%, which makes him less polular amongst New York Democrats, and in the general election he trails Giuliani by 33% to 56% (Cuomo trounces Giuliani by 53%-41%), and Rick Lazio by 39% to 42% (Cuomo crushes him 67%-22%).

Give it up dude. People find you incompetent, uninspiring, craven, and stupid, and no amount of political organization, fund raising, and advertisements will change this, because you are incompetent, uninspiring, craven, and stupid.

A surprise in another poll, the Delaware Senate race, where Beau Biden(D)/Mike Castle(R) race has gone from 55%-34% in Castle’s favor in April to 45%-40% in Biden’s favor.

Admittedly, it’s been 7 months between polls, but Beau Biden (Joe’s kid), has not formally announced, nor have there been any scandals to change these numbers.

The only thing that people see that might have changed this, is that Mike Castle, a Republican who is known for being one of the most, if not the most liberal Republicans in Congress, cast a vote against the healthcare plan.

Castle’s strength in Delaware politics was always that he was perceived an an iconoclastic man of integrity, not a party apparatchik, is now voting like a party apparatchik:

What’s responsible for the Biden surge? He’s grabbed the lead in vote-rich New Castle County, built up a 41-point lead among Democratic voters, and moved to only 5 points behind Castle among independents. According to the pollster, the shift “may be a result of negative publicity [Castle] received in the state after casting a ‘no’ vote for President Obama’s health care reform bill in the U.S. Congress.” Castle, who has thrived as a moderate Republican in an increasingly Democratic state, has been casting more partisan votes–against the stimulus package, for the Stupak amendment–that have been well-reported in Delaware.

I think that if there is a final version healthcare, there will be more Republicans than just Anh “Joseph” Quang Cao voting for this bill, because some of them will realize just how toxic their leadership is from an electoral standpoint,