Month: November 2009

When Conservatives Have Lost Cokie Roberts

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They have jumped the shark, and when Cokie Roberts, whose shtick over the last 30 years has been to criticize Democrats for being….Democrats…says that Jon Voight’s ramblings suggesting that Obama has been “programmed” are, “cringe-worthy,” it means something.

Lou Dobbs broke the conservative barrier on TV, by getting thrown off the air for being too wingnutty, a first time I think that this has happened to a major media figure.

I think that the Republicans are crossing lines that are beginning to freak out the “very serious people” inside the beltway.

H/t The Washington Monthly

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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TIPS Spread


US Trade Deficit, h/t Calculated Risk

Notwithstanding all the chest pounding by folks claiming that the, “recession is over,” consumer sentiment is continuing to fall, with the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers falling to 66.0 in November, from 70.6 in October.

It also looks like real estate is in the same bind, with the US Home Purchase Index falling to a 9-year low last week, on concerns that the about what was going on with the new home buyer tax credit.

Basically, this is showing that the only thing keeping the home market from falling further, is massive government support.

We have some good news on inflation, unless you are like me, and see a period of sustained inflation as a way to monetize debts paralyzing our economy.

Paul Krugman has looked at the TIPS Spread, (top pic) basically the spread between the interest demanded by bond buyers on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), and regular Tressuries, and notes that recent widening of the gap between the two interest rates is because the rates for TIPS has fallen, as opposed to the rates for normal treasuries having gone up, which is kind of the opposite of what you would expect if the bond market was pricing in inflation.

In terms of international trade, we are seeing that the GDP of the Euro Zone has gone positive, and the US trade deficit jumped in September, (bottom pic) both of which indicate improvements in international commerce.

Basically, this news drove the dollar down, because traders were less interested in a safe haven, and oil fell to $76.35/bbl on Thursday’s strong inventory numbers.

Why Does No One Ever Quote Bob Herbert?

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Lord knows, I rarely, if ever, quote him, and his mist recent column in the New York Times deserves notice.

His basic point is that there is no recovery for most of the country, even as “Wall Street can boast about recovery all it wants, much of America remains trapped in economic hell.”

Herbert writes about this stuff a lot, and he’s treated like a red-haired stepchild, he rarely gets quoted in the blogosphere, either pro or con.

I’m not sure why this is.

I Loves Me Some Good Parody

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And the folks at New York Magazine have riffed on Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book Too Big to Fail, an account of the financial meltdown, and come up with Too Big to Fail and ZOMBIES.

Do not read this while drinking anything, or you will need to clean your screen.

Here is a sample:

It made for an awkward moment, as Merrill CEO John Thain was only seats away. He was likely the next to get the plague, the executives well knew, as his firm was full of the deathless monsters. He had remained notably silent during the exchanges.

“You guys get this done for me, and I’ll make sure I can take care of AIG and Merrill,” Paulson replied. “I’m a little uncomfortable talking about Merrill with John right in the room.” He glanced uneasily at Thain, whose face, everyone suddenly became aware, had taken on a deathly pallor. “John,” said Paulson hesitantly. “Have you been bitten?”

It was then that Thain let out a gutteral animal howl. Half-rising from his chair, he lunged toward Pandit. “BRAINS!” he moaned.

“Holy sh%$!” exclaimed Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack, who was sitting in between the men. He rolled his chair out of the way.

Geithner ran out of the room, screaming like a little girl.

(emphasis mine)

I needed to clean my screen.

JSF Engine Update

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The F136 alternate engine was running on the test stand, and sustained minor damage, which led people to rumors that the combustor needed to be redesigned.

It now turns out that the problem is much less severe than originally reported. The damage was from a lug that attaches the diffuser to the combustor that came loose during testing.

Obviously, this is not something that you want happening on an aircraft in flight, though the damage was minor, and not noticed until the engine was torn down after a test run, but it’s a not uncommon thing to have happen at this state of the development process.

And While We are On the Tanker…..

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Both Boeing and Northrop/Grumman-EADS are expressing serious concerns on the USAF’s draft tanker Request for Proposals (RFP). (paid subscription required)

We have Northrop’s complaint that Boeing got Northrop’s detailed pricing data when it made its challenge on the last contract, and Boeing is complaining that there requirements are all weighted identically:

The draft RFP places equal value on non-essential and essential qualities—such as sink and toilet water flow and fuel offload or past performance—respectively. “If everything is important, is anything important?” [Boeing business development vice president Mitchell] Waldman said. “In this competition, risk is essentially pass/fail.” In the last competition, key requirements were weighed as well as past performance and risk.

There are also complaints from Boeing that have not been released to the public.

The Secretary of the Airforce has stated that he is open to changing the RFP, but that would invite a repeat of the last clusterf$#@ on tanker procurement.

When Comparing the Tanker Proposals

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It would be a good thing to remember that Italy has still not received its 767 tankers, because there are problems with the centerline hose and drogue.

Boeing’s delivery of 767 tanker aircraft to the Italian Air Force has slipped again as the company fixes a problem with the hose-and-drogue refueling system, a senior Italian defense source said.

Italy ordered four tankers in 2002, with deliveries first expected in 2005, before a series of hitches, including vibrations in wing pylons, pushed the schedule back.

One of the reasons that Northrop won the last time around, was that the USAF doubted that Boeing could deliver the tankers on time and on budget.

Also note that drogue/boom thing is an area where Boeing is specifically claiming that its high level of expertise makes them uniquely suited for the contract.

An Interesting Solution to Heating in High Speed Flight

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Germany’s aerospace research center, DLR, is looking at a capillary system using water for cooling on a civilian high speed sub orbital transport

Obviously, you have the weight of the water to deal with, but with the specific heat of water being more than double that of kerosene (4.19 vs 2.01 kJ/kg K), the greater density of water ( 1000 vs. 817.15 kg/m3), and the much greater heat of vaporization (2257 vs 108 kJ/kg), there are weight savings with the associated pumps, tankage, and tubing:

An orbiter sub-scale wing leading edge section made of carbonfibre-reinforced carbon (known as carbon-carbon and developed for use in the nose cones of intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as Space Shuttle leading edges) will be water cooled. In theory the temperature of the orbiter’s wing leading edges could reach up to 2,500 Kelvin (2,227°C).

“With water you can use small amounts because it takes so much energy for a phase state change [from liquid to gas]. The leading edge will cool to the temperature of the boiling water and natural capillary action will constantly draw the fluid through the material to the surface at the rate we need,” says DLR space launcher systems analysis group research engineer Arnold Van Foreest.

Of course, the real problem here is not cooling, it’s the economics of such a transport, where the costs of transporting payload/passengers will likely be in excess of €10/kg in a best case situation, mitigate against this becoming reality.

We Can Have Scotch and Water on the Moon

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LCROSS


Image of Plume at +20 after impact


Near-infrared spectrometer data. Yellow areas indicate the water absorption bands


Data from the ultraviolet/visible spectrometer

And we only need to bring the Scotch, because the LCROSS impact data indicates water on moon, and not just water on the moon, but lots of water on the moon.

It appears that we are talking gallons of water in an area the size of a football field, which is by earth standards pretty f$#@ing dry, but is actually enough to be “mined” as a resource.

This is interesting not just because it makes the possibility of a habitation there more interesting, but it also raises the question as to the source of the water.

The usual suspects here are comets, the solar wind, or some hitherto unknown lunar process.

Video of discussion after break.

Special Software Gives JSF 50% Lethality Boost for JSF

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Unfortunately, as Bill Sweetman laments, the software in question is:

While we’re going back and forth about the supposed sixfold advantage of the JSF over anything except the F-22, see this from a year ago:

“U.S. Air Force analyses show the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is at least 400 percent more effective in air-to-air combat capability than the best fighters currently available in the international market.”

And now it’s 600 per cent. This does of course prove convincingly that Lockheed Martin is right to suggest that the F-35’s capability will be able to be vastly improved through software alone.

That software being, in this case, PowerPoint.

…

(emphasis mine)

Mr. Sweetman owes me a screen wipe.

VIDEO: Japan TV profiles Shinshin stealth fighter – The DEW Line

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The trust vectoring system in the video resembles that of the X-31

Stephen Trijble came across this video of Japans for developing their own stealthy fighter.

It appears to be similar to the F-22 in configuration, and it looks like they are looking for stealth and supercruise, though the slab sides on the side of the fuselage (at about 0:25) look to my very untrained eye to be an issue, and given that it is much smaller than the F-22, to my eye less than 1/2 the weight, I’m not sure how much it would be able to carry internally.

It also looks like they have a 3-D thrust vectoring system on the the video (2:30)is very similar to that of the X-31 Enhanced Fighter Maneuverability test bed (shown in bottom picture).

It’s a wicked neat video, and the translation, while sometimes clumsy, is sufficient.

William “Dollar Bill” Jefferson Gets 13 Years

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I don’t see the sentence as unjust, this man was aggressively corrupt, and took bribes.

I do wonder though why Randall “Duke” Cunningham, who did far worse, compromising major defense contracts and the operations of the CIA in the process of his corruption only got 7 years?

As to whether it’s a black/white thing, or a Democratic/Republican thing, or Cunningham’s age/health, or his history as a stick jock, I don’t know, but the disparity is troubling.

I’m not saying that Jefferson didn’t get what he deserved. He deserved that, and more.

I’m saying that Cunningham should have gotten more, even with the leniency accorded a guilty plea relative to Jefferson’s conviction.

Breaking: Greg Craig Out as White House Counsel

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This was the point man on closing down the gulag at Guantanamo, drafting the memo that called for closing it within a year, as well as the point man on releasing the Bush White House torture memos, and now he’s been fired (resigned) in a classic Friday afternoon bury the news tactic.

My guess is that this means that Barack Obama intends to “embrace and extend”, indefinite detention, probably at Bagram rather than Gitmo, show trials called military commissions, and torture, but YMMV.

In any case, replacing him will be Robert Bauer, who was Barack Obama’s personal attorney from 2005 onwards, as well as the general council for both the DNC and OFA, so I think that what we are getting here is someone who will be a providing justifications for actions, as opposed to reviewing them for legality.

Think Alberto “Abu” Gonzales writ small.

The Boycott is Getting Results

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Following repeated actions by Barack Obama and his administration to do absolutely nothing about gay rights, including a particularly illuminating exchange between DNC Treasurer and Andrew Tobias, which I noted here.

Well, it appears that some people concluded that enough was enough, and John Aravosis launched a donor boycott of the DNC. (There is a particularly damning list of the bill of particulars at the link)

So, after months of everyone, including Barney Frank, saying that nothing could be done right now about Don’t Ask Don’t Tell (DADT), because the plate was too full, we now treated to the spectacle of that same Barney Frank saying that DADT will be repealed in next year’s defense authorization bill. (see also here)

Amazing that.

I think that if people are interested in gay civil rights, it needs to be understood that while Barack Obama and his administration may not be homophobic, they are hostile to the expenditure of any political capital on this matter.

Simply put, while they may not hate gays, they find the LGBT community inconvenient.

This means that the only way that anything is going to get done is if the LGBT community makes doing nothing even more inconvenient.