Yea, sure, the recession is over. That’s why initial jobless claims rose again this week, up 7000 to 480,000, and continuing claims rose as well, though the 4-week average fell.

I’m beginning to think that those “stunning” NFP payroll numbers in November were an artifact of a seasonal correction of some kind.

In any case, real estate is not looking so hot, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising again, and the estimates for the “shadow inventory” in housing , basically homes that are being foreclosed on, or are being held off the market by the foreclosing institutions to keep from depressing prices too much was revised upward:

The number of homes that may be in the pipeline for a sale because of foreclosure and delinquency climbed about 55 percent to 1.7 million at the end of September, according to estimates by First American CoreLogic.

The “shadow inventory” rose from 1.1 million a year earlier. Such properties include those taken over by banks and mortgage companies and those where the loans are at least 90 days delinquent, the Santa Ana, California-based research firm said in a report today. The number of unsold homes listed for sale was 3.8 million in September, down from 4.7 million a year earlier, First American said.

So I think that any claim to a recovery in residential real estate has been, greatly exaggerated.

That being said, the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, as well as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s Business Outlook Survey both showed signs of growth, though, as Calculated Risk notes, the recovery is weaker than in earlier months, indicating, perhaps, the start of a “W” downturn.

In either case, the LEI and the Philly Fed report did not seem to have much of an effect on Treasuries, which rose, meaning that the yield dropped, largely on concerns about Greece.

This sentiment also drove the dollar up.

In energy, the strong dollar drove oil down, but natural gas rose, largely on the cold weather and smaller than expected inventory numbers.