Year: 2009

NASA Head is So Far Up It’s Ass it Resembles a Klein bottle

Remember that permanent moonbase that NASA has been pushing for the past few years????

OOPS!! just kidding!

After four years of bold talk about focusing its return-to-the-Moon programme on a permanent international outpost at the Moon’s southern polar Shackleton crater, NASA now suggests its plans may stop at less ambitions Apollo-style sorties.

Seriously, it appears that NASA looks at its long term goals with the same seriousness as your average LOLKat on a catnip binge.

As I’ve said before, these are people who let Star Trek inform their decisions way too much.

AFRL Develops Directional Fusing for A

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) is looking at fuses and configurations that would allow a warhead to direct the bulk of its shrapnel toward the target, as opposed to distributing it more or less evenly in all directions.

This intended to be a part of the Joint Dual-Role Air Dominance Missile (JDRADM), a missile intended to replace both the AMRAAM AAM and the HARM ARM.

I’m a bit dubious of packaging both of these roles into one missile, but the fusing and warhead tech here looks promising.

Russia: Turkey Seeks To Buy Air Defense System – Defense News

About 7 months ago, I noted that Turkey was looking to buy Russian SAM Systems.

We have another report , and this adds the S-400 (NATO Code Name SA-21 Growler) to the list.

It is arguably the most capable SAM system in the world with a range in excess of 400 km, and a sophisticated control system that may allow for some anti-stealth capabilities through sensor fusion and data processing, along a significant anti-missile capabilities, which might very well provide coverage from something fired from Iran.

What is interesting here is that the story is not that the manufacturer is saying that Turkey wants the system, not that a contract has been inked, and the system has yet to be exported, and I am not sure that if I were Russian authorities, I would want a NATO ally, who would be very likely to pass along data on this system to the US, to get their mitts on this.

Air Force Clueless Over UAVs

And this is a deep cultural problem, not a simple case of a penny wise and pound foolish mistake.

What is going on is that both the Army and the USAF operate models of the Predator drone, but the Army’s loss rate is much lower because the USAF has refused to incorporate an auto-landing system on their UAVs:

Outgoing Pentagon acquisition czar John Young sharply criticized the Air Force today in his last meeting with reporters, saying the service had refused to budget for auto-landing gear for Predator UAVs even though the Air Force has lost a substantial portion of these to landing accidents. The new undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics, Ash Carter, was sworn in this afternoon.

Young said the Air Force has lost one-third of the 183 Predators it has bought, and one third of those have crashed because of ground control issues. (Young’s spokesman, Chris Isleib, later sent an email to reporters slightly changing the numbers. “Since 1994 the Air Force has procured 195 Predators. 65 have been lost due to Class A mishaps,” he said.) Isleib added that of the 65 mishaps, 36 percent are laid at the door of human error and “many of those attributable to ground station problems.” About 15 percent of the total was destroyed during the landing phase, Isleib clarified in his email. (For a very human and honest portrayal of the difficulties of flying a Predator, catch this briefing by a NASA pilot who has flown them.)

Young said he told the Air Force to “move as fast as possible to auto-land.” A clearly irritated undersecretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics told reporters “it will not surprise you that the Air Force is resisting this.” No cost estimates are available yet for equipping the Predator fleet with auto-land.

Young drew a sharp contrast with the Army’s Shadow UAV, saying it had lost very few aircraft to landing mishaps because it possesses auto-land capability.

What is going on here is a calculus that is very close to the USAF’s raison d’etre.

The air force is about pilots flying things, and pilots land what they fly, so if you add an auto-land system, then why do you need a pilot, as opposed to some sort of weapons system operator, who might *gasp* even be an enlisted man…..horrors!

Another example of why spinning off the USAF as an independent service has not served the military, or the taxpayer, well.

Friday Night Bank Failures

28 so far this year.

America West Bank, Layton, UT

Citizens Community Bank, Ridgewood, NJ

Silverton Bank, N.A., Atlanta, GA

Full FDIC list.

Oh, we also have a German bank, Hypo Real Estate (HRE), that specialized in loans to developers being nationalized by the German government, albeit in a confusing, slow motion sort of way.

And finally, there is Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co., a San Diego, California based mortgage banker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing debt of as much as $500 million and assets of less than $50 million.

Update on Goss, Harman and AIPAC

First, Laura Rosen has a convincing, but not definitive account that the wiretap of Harman was part and parcel of a hit job by Porter Goss and his “Gosslings”.

Some data points:

  • It appears that people are arguing that Gonzalez backed off the investigation of Harman almost a year after the the New York Times had published its story on the wiretaps.
  • The leak of this information to Time Magazine in 2006 came 3 days after Harman released a report under the auspices of her being the ranking member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HSPCI) on the Randall “Duke” Cunningham affair, and both Goss and his “Gosslings” frequented Cunningham’s booze and prostitute laden soirees:

Indeed, my read of a more recent CQ piece about then DNI John Negroponte also telling Goss not to brief the House leadership about Harman caught on the wiretap is that Negroponte was also trying to shut down what he thought was a rogue effort to pursue investigation of Harman. One now wonders if the reported Negroponte-Goss tensions that ultimately ended in Goss being forced to resign were also fueled by his concerns about Goss’s and the Gosslings’ actions on the Harman matter, and not just the Foggo matter. As we now know, by the way, the Foggo matter is not at all unrelated to the Cunningham case and the HPSCI report that Harman released. Remember: Foggo got the number 3 job at CIA because Goss’s staff recommended him to Goss. Indeed, many members of Goss’s staff had played poker with Foggo and the Cunningham case defense contractors for years (remember the Watergate poker parties?). And my understanding is that when Goss was chairman of HPSCI, Foggo had served his staff as a kind of mole against Tenet and other suspected-unloyal-to-Bush types inside the CIA. So Team Goss and the Gosslings had reasons to squirm when Harman released that report. I need to check when the Foggo indictment actually came down, but I don’t believe he was indicted yet at the time Harman released that report in October 2006. So that case against Foggo and the wider Cunningham investigation still moving may have unnerved people in Goss-land for multiple reasons when Harman released that report.

….
October 2006 is one month before the midterms when the Democrats would retake the House. And with the Democrats expected to win, who would get the chairmanship of HPSCI would have been a live issue for those who cared about these things, including about what kind of oversight even of past actions at CIA might have occurred. Oversight – and in particular Democratic-led oversight – that might have included looking into actions taken during Goss’s tenure as CIA director from 2004-2006. That tenure included, as Marcy Wheeler has pointed out, the CIA’s destruction of videotapes recording harsh interrogations of terrorism suspects — which Harman may have been briefed about. The episode is serious – it’s now the subject of investigation by a special prosecutor. Goss’s tenure also included the whole Foggo corruption matter which was still playing out in 2006, indeed, which played a big role in Goss being forced to suddenly step down as CIA director in May 2006.

So it’s beginning to sound like someone was going after the person most likely to investigate both the torture tape destruction and the connections between Goss staffers and disgraced Congressman Cunningham.

Most of this appears to be moot, because prosecutors are dropping the case against the AIPAC lobbyists, which is a good thing, because the precedent intended by this case was to criminalize the receipt of any classified material by an American citizen without any espionage being involved, and could be very easily extended to journalism.

Economics Update

Well, we have good news to start, with the Institute for Supply Manufacturing Index rising to 41, beating expectations, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rising to 65.1.

I’m not sure if this is a turn around or just a pause, since 41 is still contraction (50 being neutral for the ISM Manufacturing Index), and 65.1 for consumer confidence is well below the baseline of 100 which was set in December 1964.

Additionally, U.S. March factory orders fell 0.9%, and Japanese prices are showing deflation again, both of which mitigate against a prompt recovery.

Still, optimism on the economy drove oil to above $53/bbl.

As to the dollar, it was up vs. the Yen, and down vs. the Euro, I think largely on the bad news from Japan and the “good” news on orders and consumer confidence.

Remind Me Never to Play Poker With Barack Obama

Because that’s just what happened with the Chrysler bankruptcy, as this article titled Chrysler Lenders Tried Obama’s Patience, Lost Game of Chicken shows.

They are making noises about how unfairly they have been treated:

An anonymous group of 20 Chrysler lenders calling itself the “Committee of Chrysler Non-Tarp Lenders” said in a statement yesterday that they’d been treated worse than junior creditors during negotiations in violation of “long-recognized legal and business principles.” They said they were owed $1 billion.

And they are technically correct that they are secured creditors, but their security is not equal the full value of the loans, more like 10-20% of the outstanding amount, and they are vulture capitalists who intended this shakedown in the first place, as evidence by the fact that they, “paid from 50 cents to 70 cents on the dollar for their Chrysler loans,” (my money is actually on their purchasing this debt for less than 50¢ on the dollar).

Now they are whining, and they are the ones who will be taken into court and have the fingers pointed at them.

This is a very big shot across the bow for creditors for General Motors.

In completely unrelated auto news, the April sales figures are out, and they are bleak, with GM -33%, Ford -32%, Honda -25%, Nissan -38%, Hyundai -14%, Daimler -31%, and Toyota -42% year over year.

Not Enough Bullets: UK Edition

Of course, because of their strict gun laws, we may have to implant the bullets manually:

City bankers are to reap nearly £7bn in bonuses this spring even though the government has been forced to pump tens of billions into the banks to prevent them collapsing.

The good news is that this is down from its £14.1 billion peak in 2007.

The bad news is that these folks still say that they need this with a straight face.

As my British friend would say, “Fecken bollocks Numpty wankers!!”

Just in Case You are Sleeping Well

We have an enormous crisis looming in commercial real estate, because, unlike home ownership, these loans are typically for a short period, 5 years typically, and at the end of the term, you need to refinance, and right now, the property owners are under water:

Thousands of commercial mortgages valued at hundreds of billions of dollars are approaching their renewal dates, and by some estimates, two out of three no longer will meet the original loan conditions and won’t be able to refinance. With prices for commercial properties expected to plunge, a vicious cycle could unfold, much as it has in the nation’s housing market.

The interesting thing here is that hese mortgages could be modified by a bankruptcy judge (cram down), they are performing loans, and it’s where the sensible banks did their business, which means that they will get hammered.

I see another government bailout.

Copyright Maximalists Lose One

CBS runs a fantasy football league, and the NFL, and NFLPA were threatening a lawsuit over the ownership of the statistics and player names so CBS got to court first, and won a judgment:

BS Corp.’s Internet unit won the right to use National Football League players’ names and statistics for free in fantasy sports leagues it sponsors after a judge ruled the information is in the public domain.

A federal appeals court decision in 2007 that companies operating fantasy leagues have a First Amendment right to use names and data of baseball players without paying a licensing fee applies to football as well, U.S. District Judge Ann Montgomery said in Minneapolis.

This is really basic stuff. You cannot copyright information in the United States, only unique expression or arrangement of that data, such as Westlaw’s citation system for court cases.

The statistics, and the attachment of them to player names, teams, and player numbers, is simply not a unique arrangement or expression of data.

That being said, restrictions of data under an IP regime is the end goal of copyright maximalists, and would make all of society a far poorer place.

Breaking: Supreme Court Justice David Souter To Retire

This has been reported by NPR, and confirmed by NBC.

It should get interesting.

I would say that if there is a policy of Republicans to follow, it is to appoint younger justices.

If you look at recent appointments, the Republican appointments were in their early 50s (43 for Thomas), and the Dems (Bryer and Ginsberg) were 56 and 60 respectively.

This was a conscious decision, in order to maximize their tenure.

I would also add, wait for Franken to be seated, in order to forestall a filibuster.

The Best Argument for Draconian Immigration Restrictions

Alan Greenspan saying that illegal immigration aids the US economy, because he’s wrong about everything:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said that illegal immigration makes a “significant” contribution to U.S. economic growth by providing a flexible workforce. Greenspan, appearing before a Senate subcommittee today, said illegal immigrants provide a “safety valve” as demand for workers rises and falls.

On a more serious note, look at what he is saying when you tease out the meaning, he is saying that illegal immigration is good because it drives down wages…..That’s what “flexible workforce” and “safety valve,” mean.

Alan Greenspan has always been a big fan of cheap labor.

There is no doubt that illegal immigration adds to GDP. The question is whether it contributes to per capita GDP, or the slightly more nebulous and hard to measure concept of the well being of our society.

½ of Europe’s population died during the heyday of the Black Death, and it is indisputable that the GDP of Europe was lower in the years following the Bubonic Plague outbreak than before.

What is also indisputable is that the standard of living of those remaining rose at the time, as can be seen through records of increased wages, and the frantic passage of (largely ineffective) laws intended to reign in wages and reduce worker mobility.

The end question is not what our immigration policy should be, but rather what should our society look like, and how to we create an immigration policy most consistent with our professed values that creates this society.

To my mind, this is best addressed by extremely aggressive laws targeting employers who deliberately or negligently hire illegals, and not by harsh measures taken against desperate economic refugees.

The Big Banks Own the Senate

And they do their master’s bidding and kill a cram down amendment, which would allowed bankruptcy judges to adjust mortgage principal for primary homes much in the same way they do for vacation homes and commercial property.

15 Democrats, including newly minted Dem Arlen Specter, voted for banks, and against American families.

The house passed a bill with cramdown, and Pelosi has been insistent that it be included, and conference reports, and this will now go to a conference committee as the bills are different, are not filabusterable.

Here’s hoping that ordinary people win.

Auto Industry Update

Well Chrysler had gone Chapter 11, because of the unwillingness of a number of the smaller creditors to negotiate in good faith.

Those folks are actually better described as hedge funds, and knowing how hedgies work, they doubtless bought debt at a discount for the express purpose of holding it for ransom.

Here is hoping that the BK judge cleans them out.

Meanwhile, back in GM land, its bondholders have made a counter-offer, wanting a 58% stake in the firm, as opposed to the 10% stake offered, so there is a big gap to bridge there too.

Economics Update

To initial jobless claims fell to 631,000 this week, down 14,000 from the prior week, though continuing claims rose by 133,000 to 6.271 million, another new record.

More generally, both personal income and personal spending fell.

We also have the Institute for Supply Management’s Chicago Purchasers’ Index for April rising to 40.1, though this still indicates contraction, just slower contraction, as 50 is the neutral point.

Additionally, mortgage rates are essentially unchanged over the past week. remaining near historic lows.

The markets seem to be anticipating an improvement in the economy, which has pushed oil up and the dollar down, which I think means nothing, but the folks who run those predictive markets rather like.