Year: 2009

Airbus Looking at GTF On A-320?

That certainly is what this patent application filed by EADS , which shows a modified wing-fuselage fairing that is supposed to reduce drag from the installation of a larger engine, seems to indicate.

The problem would seem to be directly associated with the installation of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) which has a significantly higher bypass ratio, and fan size, as compared to the engine currently used on the A-320 series.

The new fairing is the bottom of both pics.

Basically, it appears to be a sort of area ruling which accommodates the changes in air flow from a larger nacelle.

Contest for Brazilian Fighters Kicks Into High Gear

The lead competitors are the SAAB Gripen, Dessault Rafale, and the Boeing Super Hornet, with Super Bugs systems being their selling point, the Gripen’s short/rough field capabilities being their selling point, and the Rafale’s independence of US political restrictions being their selling point.

The down sides are, single engine for the Gripen, poor aerodynamics for the F/A-18E/F, and cost, lack of other export orders, and a relatively limited number of weapons qualified for carriage for the Rafale.

It appears that Brazil looks at this order as a way to expand its domestic aerospace capabilities through offsets and tech transfers, which probably would favor the French, who are desperate to get an export order.

This raises an interesting question: This is a large order, but just how many are one Brazilian?

Yeah, I know, lame joke.

Stupid Senator Tricks

For some reason, it appears that Senator Richard Shelby (R-AL) seems to be overrepresented in such metrics.

In this case, he has a hold on Ashton Carter to become the next Pentagon acquisition chief, because, wait for it, he has not received a guarantee from SecDef Robert Gates that the he would, “make the tanker decision on best-value grounds.”

He is concerned that Airbus, which would assemble the aircraft in his state, will somehow be cheated out of the contract.

Ummm…The Airbus A-330 won the contract because it had a larger, more capable aircraft that could be delivered sooner, and had a fly-away cost roughly equal to the Boeing 767.

This is not an issue. The issue is your colleague in the House and Senate, doing the same work for Boeing that you are doing for EADS, will attempt to sabotage the process and get the contract awarded to the Seattle aircraft manufacturer on political grounds.

You do not need a guarantee from Gates or Carter, you need it from your fellow legislators.

Electro-Magnetic Catapult on Ford Class CVN in Trouble

It looks like there are serious problems with the Navy’s new Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS), which is intended to replace steam catapults on the new carrier.

The GAO is highlighting potential delays and cost overruns, and the fact that testing is not intended to start until next year, even though the keel of the lead ship, the Gerald Ford, has already been laid.

It makes me wonder if SecDef Gates proposed slowdown on carrier production might be in some part by concerns over the maturity system, as retrofitting steam catapults would involve major changes to the ship, and possibly to its propulsion, which was not designed to supply steam to catapults.

Of course, as always, the US Navy is being less than forthcoming about potential problems, and continues to paint a happy picture, though there are stories suggesting that EMALS would be shelved, though it is unclear if replacing the system with steam would save money or keep the program on schedule, at least for the Ford.

Good Read on Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

It appears that the impetus to get this all started was the US Pershing II, whose actively radar guided MARV produced a CEP of something under 30m much less than the 75m beam of a Nimitz flight deck.

In any case, this is a good read, and if this technology has been in development since the early 1980s, I can see no reasons that the Chinese are not near the point of being able to deploy such a system.

Modern processors allow for sensor fusion from a number of data sources, and a CVBG puts out a lot of signature.

In any case, I tend to figure that warships these days fall into 2 categories: Submarines, and targets.

Zimbabwe Update

Not a whole bunch of conflict lately, and inflation is beginning to moderate, though much of that is because the economy is moving off the local currency.

It’s a good sign, as are reports that media restrictions will be relaxed.

It also looks like the MDC majority in Parliament is actually doing something, as they are looking to probe reports of police abuses.

We also have the Blanket gold mine reopening.

Unfortunately, at least on the symbolic level, 19 MDC ministers have accepted the offer of Mercedes Benz autos from Mugabe, which looks very bad.

We also have the IMF doing what it does best, making a financial disaster worse, and crushing the ordinary people beneath its treads.

What Mugabe won’t destroy, the IMF will.

South Africa has relaxed restrictions on Zimbabwean refugees, offering a 6 month visa.

SecDef Gates Warns the Generals

Gates just issued a statement urging legislators to look beyond their districts, but the important statement comes further down:

The thing that is important is to reinforce within the building, in terms of dealing with the Hill, that there is a chain of command,’ he said. ‘Once the decision is made, and particularly once the president signs off on the budget, then there needs to be discipline about people not conducting guerilla warfare against decisions the president has made.

(emphasis mine)

He is telling the generals that the decisions have been made, and behind the scenes lobbying will be punished.

This has been a consistent problem with the Pentagon for at least 15 years, and it has only become worse in the last 8 or so, and it needs to be shut down.

Military officers should answer questions honestly, but the lobbying for weapons systems is simply corrupt and a repudiation of civilian control.

Good for Bob Gates for putting the Generals on notice.

Economics Update

We have a report that consumer confidence is improving, according to the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, which rose to 49.1 from 45.3, which is only slightly pessimistic, 50 being neutral.

I have no idea if the folks at at Investors Business Daily/TIPP actually run a good poll, but it does look like consumer confidence is up a bit, though the Federal Reserve’s view of the economy remains gloomy.

Certainly with wholesale inventories falling by 1.5% in February, the largest drop in 17 years, there are some bright spots here, because as inventories fall, orders have to be made to restock.

The same cannot be said for commercial real estate, with
mall vacancies at a 10-Year high, and office t rents falling significantly in San Francisco.(-24% year over year !)

Rents fell for apartments in Southern California and nation wide too, which tends to mitigate the impetus for people to buy homes, so I think that the continued increase in mortgage applications is still largely Refi activity.

The credit markets still suck which is why the Fed is looking at offering longer term loans at a higher interest rate for TALF, even as participation in the program is less than anticipated, indicating that investors are still leery of investing in things like mortgage backed securities.

In international finance, Fitch has followed S&P’s lead, and downgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt.

The Treasury has expanded TARP to cover insurance companies, including some of the very big names, such as Hartford, Prudential, and Met Life.

This Problem is getting smaller, not bigger.

Finally, both oil and the US dollar rose today, on a less then expected inventory for the former, and a flight to safety for the latter.

Obama Embraces and Extends Bush Secrecy Fetish

In a response to the EFF’s lawsuit over illegal NSA wiretapping, the Obama has now responded with a claim for executive privilege that is more expansive than that of Bush and His Evil Minions&trade.

Basically, the Obama DOJ, and this is their ruling, this is the first filing in the case, is saying that, “the Patriot Act bars all causes of action for any illegal surveillance in the absence of “willful disclosure.'”

As Glenn Greenwald says in this analysius, “This is the Obama DOJ’s work and only its work, and it is equal to, and in some senses surpasses, the radical secrecy and immunity claims of the Bush administration.”

Lovely.

Uruguay Round Agreements Act Held Unconstitutional

The case is Golan v. Holder (originally filed when Gonzalez was Attorney General), and challenged the provision of the URAA that restored copyright to out of copyright works, and rendered derivative works that had been made when there was no copyright illegal, and now a Federal District Court has ruled it an unconstitutional violation of the first amendment, after a remand from the appeals court (PDF of opinion at link).

This is the first time ever that, “a court has held any part of the Copyright Act violates the First Amendment and the first time any court has placed specific constitutional limits on the government’s ability to erode the public domain,” so it is very significant.

This differs from Eldred, in which the Supreme Court allowed copyright extension, in that the speech of the plaintiffs was already legally created, and so the change was an infringement on their legally created speech (derivative works of then public domain items).

It is my understanding, that this applies only to legally created derivative works, and one would assume, newly created derivatives of those derivatives, but not new derivatives of these works, but I’m an engineer, not a lawyer, dammit!*

In either case, this is a recognition that IP law is a restriction of the rights of the rest of society, and as such there needs to be a showing a serious state interest in order to override that, and this is IMHO, a major step forward.

*I LOVE IT when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!

Where Real America Is

We have a CBS News Poll, and unlike the pundits, the American public gets it:

  • Higher taxes on the rich: Support 74% Oppose 23%
  • Obama’s Budget priorities: Support: 56% Oppose 32%
  • Auto industry bailout: Support 47% Oppose 38%
  • Banking industry bailout: Support 33% Oppose 58%
  • Increase financial regulation: Support 71% Oppose 23%

So, they don’t blame the unions for the Auto industry, despite the constant drum beat that this is the problem, they want to soak the rich, they support Obama, and they do blame the bank executives.

Senate Judiciary Committee Approves Patent Update

It looks to me like the Patent Reform Act of 2009, is an improvement, the patent troll crowd are generally negative on it, and Senator Feingold’s statement in opposition suggests that it weakens patents too much, which is a good thing.

The real question is what happens in conference.

In my dream scenario, the patenting of software algorithms, tax deductions, business plans, genes, and species would be invalidated, and a litigant could file a suit against a patent as a plaintiff without having to infringe, as is done with civil rights suits.

Why the US Mobile Phone Industry is a Horrible Model for the Internet

The advocacy group Free Press has filed a complaint with the FCC over Apple and AT&T’s ban on the use of Skype on their network.

The money quote on this is from a typically clueless AT&T spokesman, “Customers are free to download and use the apps they want, but we have no obligation—nor should we have—to facilitate or subsidize our competitors’ businesses.”

It sounds reasonable, but what is really going on here is that AT&T is using monopoly power, it is the exclusive licensee for the iPhone in the US, and it’s customers incur hefty roaming charges on other networks, in order to lock a potential competitor out on a service that their customers have paid for.

This is why network neutrality is necessary, and it is yet another example as to how the US privatized largely unregulated telco markets do not serve the consumer: it creates businesses whose model is largely predicated on creating, and maintaining, a monopoly.

A Little Gem in the FDIC Job Postings

Peterr at Firedoglake was looking at job postings on the FDIC website, and saw something that was probably not intended for the general public, specifically some job postings by the FDIC that may indicate that there will be some very big fish on a path to be caught in the FDIC’s net.

First, there is a posting for a Deputy Chief Accountant (announcement number 2009-EM-0096) who is responsible for, “identifying emerging accounting, auditing, and taxation issues, particularly those raising systemic concerns, for which the timely development of policy guidance for FDIC -supervised and -insured institutions and the Division’s examination staff is critical” (emphasis mine).

“Raising systemic concerns?” Sound like anyone we know? As Peterr notes, it looks like part of their duties will be teasing out responsibilities amongst other financial regulators, which may involve putting a finger in the eye of Timothy “Too Big to Allow to Fail” Geithner’s Treasury Department.

Additionally, there are two openings for two Senior Large Financial Institution Specialist (announcement number 2009-HQD-B1089) located in New York, NY and Charlotte, NC, which are where the HQ’s of Citi and BoA are located, though obviously there are many financial institutions with headquarters in the New York City area, as well as a Chief, Examination Support and Risk Analysis Section (announcement number 2009-HQDEU-1113), who seems to be in charge of “Formulates, refines, and updates supervisory expectations relative to Basel II implementation efforts,” which means risk evaluation of banks.

Additionally, we have Treasury announcing a delay in the reporting the results of the stress tests, “until after the first-quarter earnings season.”

People do not delay good news.

I wouldn’t expect anything this Friday on one of the big 20 financial institutions, but it could get interesting in a few weeks.