Year: 2009

Reid Is Looking to Fold Cram Down Provisions

No Comments

Reid is now saying that he might drop cram down provisions from the housing bill if it threatens passage of the whole package.

Basically, this means that he is going to kill it, because everyone who wants it gone now knows that they can get it dropped by whining.

Seeing as how this was the law until about 1993, the effect on interest rates are minimal, and it’s the only way to renegotiate a mortgage that has been sliced and diced until it has hundreds of owners, cramdown is the single best thing that can be done to help with the current financial meltdown.

New York State to Institute “Temporary” Millionaire’s Tax

No Comments

Governor Paterson had been opposed to such taxes, suggesting that it would lead the wealthy to leave the state, but has not capitulated to progressives in the state, who were opposed to the draconian cuts in services that a “no-tax” solution would have required.

Even with this increase, 8.97% from 6.85% for income over $½ million, the top tax rate in New Jersey, is higher, and in any case, if people want to leave New York because it’s too expensive, they already have.

Nice to know that the political forces in New York State who work for the other 99% of the population can actually get meaningful change….for 3 years at least, as the tax is temporary….for now.

An Interesting Development in Autism Spectrum Conditions

No Comments

It appears that there is a genetic link between nicotine addiction and autism, in the neurexin-1 gene, which creates an excess of neurexin-1 beta protein, which aids in nerve cells linking up with nicotine like substances to neuro receptors, in people addicted to nicotine.

It turns out that the levels of the protein, and the gene, are deficient in some people on the Autism spectrum.

It raises some interesting questions, though at this point I would be very cautious, and I think that a first step would be to compare smoking and non smoking populations of people on the spectrum.

The fact that quack physician Jeff Bradford has apparently already started putting nicotine patches on his patients should not be viewed as significant by anyone except, perhaps, for malpractice lawyers.

Giving small children nicotine is an invitation to injury or death, because a nicotine overdose can kill someone very quickly.

H/T A Photon In The Darkness.

Now We Know Why Banks Were Profitable Last Month

No Comments

Because, using our tax dollars, AIG settled its accounts with the big banks at 100% on the dollar, even while they are refusing to pay on deals with smaller players.

So, not only are we funneling money to the big 5 banks through the TARP, and the TALF, and various Fed facilities, we are also shoveling money in through the back door by way of AIG’s Financial Products Division.

I now have a tough choice….Should I go long in pitchforks, or torches?

Big 3 (Big 2½) Update

No Comments

So, the White House does not like GM’s or Chrysler’s reorganization plans, and has given GM 60 days, and Chrysler 30 days to come up with a better plan.

What’s more, they demanded, and got General Motors’ CEO Rick Wagoner’s resignation, and pretty much demanded some sort of alliance deal between Fiat and Chrysler.

The obvious question here is, “Why is the government insisting on Wagoner’s resignation, and not Bank of America’s Kenneth Lewis’s resignation?

In terms of Chrysler-Fiat, it appears that they have come to an agreement on a “framework” for their deal.

One wonders if this deal involves a haircut for Cerberus, which it should.

Economics Update

No Comments

I’ll be going into the automotive news elsewhere, so this is pretty short.

First the Celtic Tiger Kitten has been taken to the vets to be neutered, as S&P lowers Ireland’s rating from AAA to AA+.

Ireland played the “cheap labor with good access to markets” game, and lost to former eastern bloc nations, and played the real estate and building game, which everyone lost.

In the housing market, we have defaults on FHA insured mortgages rising with 7.46% of the loans being 90+ days overdue, in foreclosure, or bankruptcy, up from 6.16% at this time last year.

This means that there is still a lot of inventory out there that has yet to hit the market.

In energy, the concerns over the US auto manufacturers has driven oil below $50/bbl, because nothing says short oil supply like house sized SUV, and the same concerns about the economy have driven the dollar up as traders head for safety.

Quote of the Day

No Comments

ROTFLMAO!!!

There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged.

One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world.

The other, of course, involves orcs.

Too true.

Not sure of the source, it’s been floating around the innertubes.

Democratic Candidate Takes Lead in Special Election to Replace Gillibrand

No Comments

Honestly, even with the new poll numbers, this is a heavily Republican distract, so I my guess would be that the Republican has the advantage, particularly given the low turn out in special elections, so I would expect the ‘Phant to win in this Tuesday’s election.

In either case, Jim Tadesco (R), and Scott Murphy (D) contest is much closer than the district’s fundamentals would suggest.

Patents Reveal Shap of Northrop Grumman Bomber

No Comments

Rather unsurprisingly, Northrop Grumman’s design for the “Next Generation Bomber” (NGB) looks rather a lot like the cranked kite concept that has been floating around for some time.

Among other things, it’s supposed to provide much lower drag, and better high altitude performance than the original B-2, giving improved range, though some of the additional range appears to be at the expense of weapons load: word is that payload is in the 20,000 pound range, or about ½ that of its predecessors.

There is an additional interesting bit of information in another Northrop-Grumman patent application, which shows the aircraft with a mustache.

Given the stealth requirements for the aircraft, and the fact that it will generally be operating at high altitude at relatively high mach numbers, the obvious conclusion is that this is a retractable canard, much like the Tu-144 Charger and the Mirage Milan. (in the latter, the retractable canards were actually called a “mustache”)

The advantages on takeoff and landing are clear, giving a whole lot more pitch authority than is generally available with a short coupled tailless design, which can increase max takeoff and landing weight, decrease takeoff and landing speeds, and shrink the landing gear and breaking systems.

It’s Alive!!!!

No Comments

It’s beginning to look like the leading candidate for purchasing the assets of Eclipse Aviation may be positioning itself to restart the company as a going concern.

Given the relatively large customer base, and given that the debts of the company will be discharged in bankruptcy, they may be in a position to bring them back in some form, though I would be doubtful of full scale production restarting with the current investment environment.

Friday Night Bank Closings: I’m Scared Now Edition

No Comments

Not by the total number of bank closings, there was only one, the Omni National Bank, Atlanta, GA, the 21st of the year. (Full List of closings).

Since I figure that there will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 100 bank closings this year, that is not a surprise.

What is a surprise is Calculated Risk’s report on regulatory actions in California, where 6 more banks have received a cease and desist order from the FDIC, and there are predictions that two thirds of banks in California will be operating under such orders by year’s end.

I honestly cannot imagine that the situation is better in other areas with the largest real estate bubbles, such as Florida, the Las Vegas area, Phoenix, etc.

Space Debris Cleaning, My Ass!

No Comments

So, the National Reconnaissance Office and Space Command are looking to set up a ground based laser system to clean up space debris. (paid subscription required)

And I’m Anna Nicole Smith….This isn’t an attempt to set up a cleaning system, this is an attempt to develop a laser based anti-satellite weapon, not withstanding their fig leaf of some sort of multinational effort:

To help offset such a negative reaction, [Andrew Palowitch, director of the “Space Protection Program”]Palowitch says, five lasers could be built and installed in five countries—­Russia, China, India, France and the U.S. All would be ­operated by an international consortium with “everybody participating equally with free access to the particular sites in a coordinated activity.”

Propose a regime, that you could never get the French to agree to, much less China, and then go and develop a satellite zapper on your own.

Seriously, how stupid do they think that we are?

FCS Active Protection System is Not Working

No Comments

The Active Protection System (APS) is designed to intercept RPGs, ATGMs, and long rod penetrators, to protect the smaller and lighter manned vehicles of the Future Combat System (FCS), and it now seems that it simply does not work, according to the latest GAO report.

The interesting thing is that the Israelis have a system that does work, Trophy, though it is less ambitious than the APS, but it was rejected and hundreds of millions of dollars directed towards Raytheon.†

One of the interesting bits about FCS is that is as much an industrial base preservation system as anything else, with bizarre separations of work to ensure that various contractors get sufficient workshare.

I believe that the high technology band tracks are the responsibility of the BAE Systems†, and the suspension is the responsibility of General Dynamics, for example, which makes no sense whatsoever.


Army Rejects Trophy


Trophy Promotional Video

*Full Disclosure, I worked for Raytheon a number of times, both in Texas and in Maryland over the past 15 years or so.
†Full disclosure, I worked on the Future Recovery and Maintenance Vehicle, FRMV, “wrecker” variant of the FCS-MGV from 2003-2006 at United Defense (later BAE Systems after the Carlyle Group sold me to buy Dunkin Donuts).‡
‡Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

More JSF Problems

No Comments

The first is a report from the GAO revealing the least well kept secret in defense procurement, that the JSF is over budget and behind schedule, to the tune of about $2 billion, the GAO also believes that the F-35 will need about 1000 additional flight test hours than the F-35 Joint Programme Office (JPO) does, and notes that the time to assemble the first production airframes was 40% greater than predicted.

Additionally, as I have noted before, it appears that there are some very concerning issues regarding thermal management for the aircraft, and it looks like the fuel-air heat exchanger, which not only cools the avionics, but the electro-hydrostatic flight controls is not sufficient in hot weather conditions, like the Middle East.

Additionally, the author of the linked article, Bill Sweetman, notices another potential heat issue, this one having to do with IR signature, that the location of the exhaust for the integrated APU/EPU exhaust has been relocated in the production models.

In the pre-production models, it was located on the top of the aircraft in front of the left vertical stabilizer (you can see where the heat cooked off the paint in the top picture), but in the production models, it has been relocated to the bottom of the fuselage.

The exhaust does not look particularly stealthy from a radar perspective to my untrained eye, and I would have to imagine that it would be a big infra-red “kick-me” sign for Marine STOVL JSFs which would be minutes from the battlefield with APUs running on unimproved strips when the aircraft is used to provide close air support.