Year: 2009

What a Surprise

Barack Obama has spent the past 9 months doubling back on promises and dissing the base voters, sucking up to banks and the pro-torture wing of the CIA, and doing nothing for those young voters who came out for him and now need jobs, and now we have a poll showing that his most stalwart supporters may stay home in 2010:

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

Actually, these results are not shocking at all. Barack Obama and His Evil Minions have been scapegoating and ignoring his base ever since his election, so it’s no wonder that they are demoralized, so 2 out of 5 activists need to wash their hair today

Steve Singiser’s conclusion, “This enormous enthusiasm gap, as well as some polling analysis done by PPP (and analyzed well here by Nate Silver), seems to make passing legitimate health care reform an absolute political necessity for Democrats,” is actually rather weak tea.

While it’s clear that if voters are forced to pay insurance companies, and get nothing in return, they staying home or be voting for the crazy muthaf%$#as in the corner, it is also true that between the continuation of military tribunals, soft pedaling DADT and DOMA repeal, escalation in Afghanistan, etc. there is a lot going on to demoralize the base.

Pelosi Comes Out in Favor of Tobin Tax

Hopefully, this will give Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner the vapors:

A proposed tax on financial transactions “has a great deal of merit” and would help Congress raise needed revenue, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday.

“I believe that the transaction tax still has a great deal of merit,” Pelosi said at a news conference.

The tax would have a “really minimal impact on the transaction, but a tremendous impact on helping us meet our needs,” Pelosi said.

Timmeh….Suck….on…This…

Honestly, I expect Obama to oppose this fiercely in private, though I am not sure what he will do in public.

More Ass Covering by the Fed

After decades saying that, “It wasn’t their job,” and that it, “Couldn’t be done,” the Federal Reserve is now casting itself as the nation’s premier bubble fighter:

Not so long ago, Federal Reserve officials were confident they knew what to do when they saw bubbles building in prices of stocks, houses or other assets: Nothing.

Now, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a confirmation hearing Thursday on a second four-year term, he and others at the central bank are rethinking the hands-off approach they’ve followed over the past decade. On the heels of a burst housing-and-credit bubble, Mr. Bernanke now calls financial booms “perhaps the most difficult problem for monetary policy this decade.”

The money quote, which follows, is that, “Mr. Bernanke wants to use his powers as a bank regulator to stamp out bubbles, but the Senate Banking Committee, which will grill him later this week, is considering stripping the Fed of its regulatory power.”

Ben Bernanke does not want to stamp out bubbles, he is just trying to give members of Congress an excuse not to clip his wings.

Another Emirate Gets Boned

It’s Nothing Personal, It’s Just Business

So, yet another Gulf emirate has gotten done like a drunk date in prom night.

In this case, it’s Abu Dhabi, who agreed to buy shares of Citi at $31.83, under the terms of a 2 year ole deal, even though the shares are currently trading at $4.10.

It’s nothing personal, and Citi and its ilk have been doing this to the US public, and the US taxpayer for decades now.

Economics Update (Yeah, Way Late)

Click for full size



Unemployment h/t Calculated Risk


Unemployment over recessions h/t Calculated Risk


Back to where we started before Congress gave the credit card companies a big wet kiss.

I think that this is the first time that I’ve tot this since Thanksgiving. Sorry, it’s been hectic.

The lede, of course, it the unemployment numbers, and we now have the official numbers for November, and they are surprisingly not bad (using the phrase “good” for double digit unemployment is an absurdity): Non Farm Payroll fell by only 11,000 in November, and the Unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 10.0%. (The ADP prediction from earlier this week was way off)

Initial unemployment claims fell by 5K, to 457,000, with the 4-week moving average falling 14,250 to 481,250, both of which are the lowest since the 3rd quarter of last year.

On the other hand, continuing claims rose by 28K to 5.47 million, and the number of people who were collecting extended (emergency) unemployment benefits the number of people collecting extended benefits under federal programs rose by 327K to 4.53 million for the week ending November 14, when the bill that Congress passed extending benefits kicked in, so there are more people collecting benefits now than there were last week….A lot more.

Seeing as how the US Economy needs to add roughly 150,000 jobs a month just to account for a growing workforce, at best we are in a “getting crappy less quickly” stage, and at worst, it could be a dead cat bounce.

In non-employment related metrics, we have the both the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and the ISM Manufacturing Index falling, though the latter is still indicating expansion, just very slow expansion, though the November Chicago Purchasing Managers Index rose to a 15-month high, and the Fed’s Beige Book is showing improvement.

The reason that I am not optimistic, in addition to being bearish by temperament, is because retail sales fell below estimates for the start of the holiday season, and because personal bankruptcy filings are still horrific, (see pic) they were down in November from October, but still up 12% from Year over Year.

In real estate, 30-year fixed mortgages fell.

And in the world of central banks, the European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate at 1%, though it gave indications that it would be walking away from its quantitative easing, which drove both oil and the dollar down.

Crap That We Should Be Stopping

If Barack Obama was supposed to be about anything, he was supposed to be about engaging in at least marginal meaningful antitrust and consumer protections, and Comcast buying NBC Eniversal, (NBC, Universal Studios, NBC Universal Television Group, NBC News, USA Network, Syfy, CNBC, MSNBC cable TV, NBC.com, MSNBC.com, iVillage, Bravo, qubo, Telemundo Television Studios, The Weather Channel, and Hulu according to the Wiki) is the antithesis of this.

My guess is that this sale will proceed without any major interference from Barack Obama and His Evil Minions, because Barack Obama really isn’t about anything.

Matt Taibbi on Obama

He essentially says that it’s Robert Rubin’s friends and disciples who are running the White House bailout effort, largely for the benefit of ……wait for it……wait for it……wait for it……wait for it…… Robert Rubin’s friends and disciples!

He connects the dots and concludes, accurately IMNSHO, that the goal of the Obama and His Evil Minions is to implement a “permanent bailout mechanism” for the biggest 20 or so financial institutions in the United States, which will mean that they will have more access to cheaper capital than any competitors, which will allow them to accumulate more money and power, allowing to exert further influence over government……Rinse……Lather……Repeat.

H/t zero hedge.

DOJ Number 2 to Quit

Deputy Attorney General David Ogden has resigned, effective February 5.

This is odd, but the only sign of drama is this bit:

Unlike some of his predecessors, Ogden did not have deep experience with criminal law issues, and he sometimes crossed swords with aides to Holder, who has become the department’s public face on national security and public corruption issues.

Full official statement after the break.

Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday, December 3, 2009

Deputy Attorney General David Ogden to Leave Department of Justice

Deputy Attorney General David W. Ogden announced today that he will leave the Department on February 5, 2010 to return to private practice. Prior to joining the Department as Deputy Attorney General in March, Ogden chaired the Obama Administration’s transition team for the Department of Justice.

“David Ogden has been an invaluable leader for the Department of Justice and for this Administration,” said Attorney General Eric Holder. “From leading the transition team that established early goals for the Department to spearheading major initiatives such as our effort to fight health care fraud, he has been an effective and diligent advocate for the American people. Through his work here, he has helped reinvigorate the Department’s traditional missions, restore its reputation for independence, and make the country safer and more secure. I am sorry to see him go, and I thank him for his service to the Department and to the nation.”

Prior to his confirmation, Deputy Attorney General Ogden was a partner at the law firm of WilmerHale, which he joined in 2001. He previously served in senior positions at the Department of Justice during the Clinton Administration.

Deputy Attorney General Ogden made the following statement:

“I took a leave from my practice of law thirteen months ago on Election Day to lead the Department of Justice transition for President Obama. My hope then was to identify the goals for a successful transition at a critical time for the Department, when its credibility was under attack and when its traditional law enforcement missions had suffered. During the transition, President-elect Obama and Attorney General-designate Holder asked me to serve as the Deputy Attorney General, which gave me the opportunity to complete the transition process and see the Department solidly on a path to achieving those goals. I accepted that challenge, with the intention of returning to my practice as soon as I felt the Department was firmly on that path.

“I believe the objectives established over a year ago have been accomplished. In order to afford the President and the Attorney General sufficient time to identify my successor and to ensure a smooth transition, I have agreed to continue to serve until February 5, 2010, when I will step down to return to private practice.

“The Department today is on the path we first set out over a year ago. First, we have reinvigorated the Department’s traditional law enforcement mission with new resources and new initiatives. I am proud of the work we have done in establishing a Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force to fight financial crime, leading a Health Care Prevention Task Force that has already pursued major prosecutions, establishing a Border Working Group to combat Mexican cartels, and attacking international organized crime through increased intelligence sharing with our partners. We have implemented new policies to stem the terrible tide of violence against women and children in Indian Country, crafted budgets that will provide critical new funding for law enforcement, civil rights and our nation’s prison system, and we will soon make key recommendations for reforms of sentencing and corrections policy. I appreciate the Attorney General’s having asked me to lead these initiatives and am proud of the progress we have made.

“Second, we have taken significant steps to ensure that we vigorously protect our national security consistent with the rule of law, including working closely with the FBI and the Intelligence Community on major counter-terrorism investigations, working on closing the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay and bringing perpetrators to justice in federal courts or military commissions, and developing a new policy for effective and lawful interrogations.

“Third, we have substantially restored the Department’s historically strong relationship with state, local, and tribal law enforcement through outreach and inclusion on the Department’s major initiatives including the Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force and HEAT.

“And finally, we have put in place a terrific senior management team that under the Attorney General’s leadership will build on this foundation. Through our work in each of these areas, the goals I hoped to achieve when I accepted this position either have been or soon will be fulfilled. The Department is in good hands, and I feel I can now return to the private practice I have missed these thirteen months.

“It has been a singular privilege to work alongside the Department’s dedicated career professionals, whose commitment to the national interest and the cause of justice is an inspiration to me. I am very grateful to President Obama and Attorney General Holder for the opportunity to serve my country and the Department of Justice in this Administration, and I will continue to assist them in any way possible.”

On Food Stamps

And no, I don’t mean that my family is on food stamps, not yet anyway, though we have applied for them, at Sharon’s* insistence, since I’ve been out of work for 5 months.

To put it mildly, I have very mixed emotions about this: I still have savings, and cars, and a house, and there is a part of me that feels that I am somehow not deserving of these benefits as a result….Though ultimately, it will be a case officer who will be making that call.

I’ve never bought into the “Lazy, shiftless, insertprogramhere recipient,” meme, but it feels wrong for me to be an “insertprogramhere recipient,” personally.

In any case, there is a New York Times article discussing the growing number of people who are availing themselves of the safety net program that they once disdained.

Some people who have found themselves on some form of public assistance have come away with a new compassion for those in need, and realize that they are just like themselves, but others take this experience, and see it as another justification for hate, as in the case of the comments in the article from Greg Dawson, who is on food stamps despite having a job:

With most of his co-workers laid off, Greg Dawson, a third-generation electrician in rural Martinsville, considers himself lucky to still have a job. He works the night shift for a contracting firm, installing freezer lights in a chain of grocery stores. But when his overtime income vanished and his expenses went up, Mr. Dawson started skimping on meals to feed his wife and five children.

He tried to fill up on cereal and eggs. He ate a lot of Spam. Then he went to work with a grumbling stomach to shine lights on food he could not afford. When an outreach worker appeared at his son’s Head Start program, Mr. Dawson gave in.

“It’s embarrassing,” said Mr. Dawson, 29, a taciturn man with a wispy goatee who is so uneasy about the monthly benefit of $300 that he has not told his parents. “I always thought it was people trying to milk the system. But we just felt like we really needed the help right now.”

While Mr. Dawson, the electrician, has kept his job, the drive to distant work sites has doubled his gas bill, food prices rose sharply last year and his health insurance premiums have soared. His monthly expenses have risen by about $400, and the elimination of overtime has cost him $200 a month. Food stamps help fill the gap.

Like many new beneficiaries here, Mr. Dawson argues that people often abuse the program and is quick to say he is different. While some people “choose not to get married, just so they can apply for benefits,” he is a married, churchgoing man who works and owns his home. While “some people put piles of steaks in their carts,” he will not use the government’s money for luxuries like coffee or soda. “To me, that’s just morally wrong,” he said.

He has noticed crowds of midnight shoppers once a month when benefits get renewed. While policy analysts, spotting similar crowds nationwide, have called them a sign of increased hunger, he sees idleness. “Generally, if you’re up at that hour and not working, what are you into?” he said.

Unlike many of the other people, who have come to the conclusion that people down on their luck are simply down on their luck, Mr. Dawson still steadfastly maintains that he’s a worthy recipient, and the rest are all a bunch of spongers on the system?

Why does he think this? My guess is because a lot of them are not white, and he just knows how shiftless and lazy they are, but I’m an but I’m an engineer, not a psychologist, dammit,, which makes it so much supposition.

On a deeper level, if we look at what he is saying, and simply take it at face value, this is all about jealousy, selfishness, and a fear of the other.

Because, you see if someone, anyone, is somehow getting a bit more than they deserve, then the programs just support lazy people, and should be eliminated.

It is this sort of the thinking is the only thing that has the Republican Party remaining politically viable: Too many people need someone/something to hate.

H/t Atrios.

*Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.
There is something fundamentally suspicious about a man in a goatee, that’s why the evil Spock in Mirror, Mirror wore one.
I LOVE IT when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!.

Some Obstructionism that I Can Believe In

Bernie Sanders, the Independent Senator from Vermont, has placed a hold on the Ben Bernanke renomination as Federal Reserve Chair:

Mr. Sanders, an independent, is not a member of the Senate banking committee, but he has frequently accused the Federal Reserve of bailing out Wall Street firms and the banking industry at the expense of ordinary citizens.

“In this country, there is profound disgust at what happened on Wall Street,” Mr. Sanders said in an interview. “People want a new direction and people are asking, where was the Fed? How did the Fed allow this to happen, when one of their mandates is to oversee the safety and soundness of the banking system?”

Mr. Sanders said he would place a hold on Mr. Bernanke’s nomination when it reached the Senate floor. Under Senate rules, lawmakers would need 60 votes to override Mr. Sanders and proceed with a vote.

They will get the 60 votes anyway, because there are at least 20 ‘Phants who will move to support him, because if someone new comes in, they will have to be more hostile to Wall Street than Bernanke, because the rage over the banker bailouts is so great.

Personally, I think that, in order to create real independence for the central bank, we should go the FBI route: One term for the Fed Chair in their lifetime.

Sheila Dixon Guilty of Embezzlement

So, herroner may not be herroner much longer:

Jurors in the theft trial of Sheila Dixon convicted the Baltimore mayor Tuesday on a single charge of taking gift cards intended for the city’s poor.

Although Dixon was acquitted of a felony theft charge, her misdemeanor conviction could force her from office.

Jurors deliberated more than six days after hearing the Democrat was accused of using or keeping $630 worth of gift cards. She allegedly solicited most of the cards from a wealthy developer and then bought electronics at Best Buy, clothes at Old Navy and other items at Target.

The jury convicted her on one count of fraudulent misappropriation by a fiduciary and acquitted her on two counts of felony theft and one count of misconduct in office. Jurors failed to reach a verdict on another count of fraudulent misappropriation by a fiduciary. The conviction carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison, but prosecutors have not decided whether they will seek jail time.

Is it just me, or is this a remarkably small bit of graft with which to sink one’s own career?

Also note that some point she gets removed from office:

Under state law, Dixon would be suspended at sentencing if the conviction is related to her official duties. She would be removed permanently if she loses all her appeals. City Council President Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is in line to be elevated to the mayor’s office, and remaining council members would pick a new president.

I kind of figured that there would be a conviction when she did not testify. Notwithstanding the constitution saying that refusal to testify cannot be used against you, Juries generally do convict when the defendant does not testify.

Back on My Act Blue Page

Regina Thomas is running again against John Barrow in the Democratic primary for Georgia’s 12th Congressional district.

This will not be easy, she got only 24% last time, but this time, John Barrow won’t have Barack Obama recording an endorsement for him, and Barrow has been down the line against Obama’s initiates, which should play poorly with the primary electorate.

In any case, she is now on Matthew Saroff’s Act Blue Page again.

Posts from the last election cycle are here.

When Bigots Get Revealed

No, I’m not talking about the Republican Party, I am talking about the leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the descendant of the fascist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

You see, after 17 years, the official report on the destruction of the Babri Mosque by a BJP led riot has been released, and it has explicitly stated that the BJP, and the leaders of the party meticulously planned the destruction of the 450 year old structure.

It should be noted that it was this action, and the rioting that followed, that catapulted what had been an obscure bigoted nationalist party onto the Indian public sphere, with negative consequences that continue to this day.

In addition to the uproar, it appears that the leaders cited in the report, most notably former Indian PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, will not be fielded as candidates.

This is not a report that you are likely to see much of in the US press. (the top link is the Christian Science Monitor, but their beat is overseas)

The reason is that while the BJP may be a party with a history of ethnic cleansing and bigotry, it is also a party that is far more accommodating to foreign investors and foreign banks, and so US media see them as “good guys”.