Year: 2009

OK, Now We Have Evidence of a Crim

About a year ago, I noted that the CIA had destroyed 2 of their tapes of their torture sessions interrogations.

It appears that I was wrong, they didn’t destroy some of their tapes, they destroyed nearly 100 tapes, 92 in fact.

This is going to continue unless this is pursued up the chain of command, and those in authority at the deputy director, director, and presidential levels are prosecuted.

Those below them need their clearances pulled forever if they cooperate, and jail time for those who do not cooperate.

Our intelligence services will continue to create more terrorists until this is rooted out of both the intelligence services and the body politic.

Yes

Glenn Greenwald asks, “Is Obama embracing the lawless, omnipotent executive?” by endorsing a position that the President, and the President alone has the authority to determine what classified documents it must release under court order.

This has been another episode of simple answers to simple questions. (apologies to Atrios)

It’s disgraceful, but not unsurprising. After all, how often do you see an executive voluntary give up authority that a predecessor successfully asserted?

Timothy “Eddit Haskell” Geithner and His Evil Minions&trade Have Lost

James Baker, “chief of staff and Treasury secretary for President Ronald Reagan and secretary of state for President George H.W. Bush,” on his management of the problems of America’s banking giants.

When you have James “Evil Capitalist” Baker saying that you are placing too much faith in private ownership, you have not just jumped the shark, but you have jumped Carcharodon megalodon, and probably an entire school of the prehistoric giant shark….

on a Big Wheel tricycle….

Naked…..

While blowing a slide whistle….

With a clown nose on….

While giving yourself a tattoo…

On your own genitals.

Belgium*, Just Belgium

Rod Blagojevich gift that keeps on giving, Roland Burris, has launched a web site dedicated to his reelection.

Great googley moogley, please make it stop.

Roland Burris not only thinks that he can win a primary, but that he can win a general, but at this point, I think that Dick Cheney is more likely than he is to win a state wide election in the state of Illinois.

*I mean this in the meaning of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy:

Less offensive words have been created in the many languages of the galaxy, such as joojooflop, swut and Holy Zarquon’s Singing Fish.

The use of bad language can have unforseen circumstances. One example is the war between the G’gugvunts and the Vl’hurgs, caused by a casual remark made by Arthur Dent being mistaken as a terrible insult.

Simultaneous Babel Fish translation also means that any being can be rude to any other being without the need for extensive explanations. This has also started many wars.

The reason the Earth has been shunned for so long is also due to a language problem. On Earth, Belgium refers to a small country. Throughout the rest of the galaxy, Belgium is the most unspeakably rude word there is.

Rumor has it that this came from Douglas Adams’ experience hitchhiking across Europe. He got where he needed to generally, but not in Belgium, so he had to walk across the whole country.

Economics Update

Yeah, I know, I don’t normally do the stock market indices, but the Dow fell to below 7000 today, and closed at 6,763.29, a 12 year low, and you can be sure that this spooks both the markets, and the regulators.

More significant is the fact that personal savings in the US are way up, and as the graph from Calculated Risk shows.

It’s been over a decade since personal savings were that high, and while generally this would be a good thing, right now the fact that people are deleveraging means that the economy is driven even further down.

It makes sense personally, but in the aggregate, it makes things worse.

Interestingly enough, even with the increase in savings, consumer spending rose in January by 0.6%, which was unexpected, as did incomes, bu 0.4%, which was also a surprise.

I think that it is a one month thing, though it might be the “Obama Effect,” making people more willing to spend now that a Bush and His Evil Minions are no longer running things, but in either case the effect is small, and unless we see increases for the next few months, things won’t get better.

We also saw the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rise to 35.8 from 35.6, beating expectations of a fall to 33.8, but note that this means merely that it’s contracting slightly less implosively than it would otherwise: any number below 50 is a contraction, and this makes 13 straight months of contraction.

The full link to the ISM monthly report is here, and it should be noted that their employment index is at all time (since 1947) low.

In real estate, construction dropped to a 4½ year low.

Meanwhile, the AIG bailout, and the concerns that it raises has driven oil down on concerns of more turmoil in the banking system, and has driven the dollar up in a flight to safety.

Jim Bunning Hints that He May Resign

It’s an open secret that the Republicans do not want Jim Bunning to run for reelection in 2010, and it appears that the former hall of fame pitcher has said in private conversations that he will quit the Senate and allow Democratic Governor Steve Beshear to appoint his successor if the party establishment tries to push him out.

If he quits, with or without Franken, and with or without a successor, the Dems have cloture without a single Republican vote.

Heh.

What the Shrill One Said

Go read the latest Krugman OP/ED, he is at the top of his game:

Mr. Bernanke cited “the depth and sophistication of the country’s financial markets (which, among other things, have allowed households easy access to housing wealth).” Depth, yes. But sophistication? Well, you could say that American bankers, empowered by a quarter-century of deregulatory zeal, led the world in finding sophisticated ways to enrich themselves by hiding risk and fooling investors.

And wide-open, loosely regulated financial systems characterized many of the other recipients of large capital inflows. This may explain the almost eerie correlation between conservative praise two or three years ago and economic disaster today. “Reforms have made Iceland a Nordic tiger,” declared a paper from the Cato Institute. “How Ireland Became the Celtic Tiger” was the title of one Heritage Foundation article; “The Estonian Economic Miracle” was the title of another. All three nations are in deep crisis now.

(emphasis mine)

Keynes was right when he warned on how unrestricted torrents of capital could destabilize destroy an economy.

Smart Politics, and True

In 1993, Bill Clinton went after Rush Limbaugh, and it proved a failure.

Between people claiming that it was in assault on free speech, and the absolutely bizarre spectacle of a sitting president going after a political shock jock, it flopped.

Well, times are different now, and the Republican party really does take its marching orders from him now, and there’s also the fact that he’s a drug addict and a sex tourist too, and that he’s no longer the new flavor of the week.

So, Democrats are bring up Rush again, but they are not going after him, so much as they are Rush Limbaugh is the intellectual voice of the Republican party.

This makes a lot more sense, because Rush Limbaugh can be relied to say something mind numbingly scary to 70% of the American population on a weekly, if now daily basis.

Unfortunately, the ‘Phants can’t walk away from him, because those 30% dead enders are something like 70% of the Republican party, just note Rep Phil Gingrey’s (R-GA) abject apology to Rush after he made a fairly innocuous comment defending the House and Senate leadership, and Limbaugh sicced His Evil Minions&trade on him.

It was reminiscent of the confessions at Stalin’s show trials, and Rush Limbaugh now owns the Republican party.

Pass the popcorn.

Europeans Want 50% Stake in Opel for GM Aid

It looks like GM May divest itself of something around 50% of Opel in exchange for €3 billion in aid.

Note that this is a loans and loan guarantees primarily from from German federal and state governments, not a sale, but these nations are demanding that GM give up a significant proportion of its ownership shares.

I think that this comes down to the European governments believing that GM would otherwise use Opel as a unwilling organ donor.

Yeah, the VWRC is Back, Only It Ain’t So Vast

I’ve been vaguely aware of CNBC D-Lister Rick Santelli, who let loose a torrent of abuse at people at risk of losing their homes, The government is promoting bad behavior! Do we really want to subsidize the losers’ mortgages?! This is America! We’re thinking of having a Chicago tea party in July, all you capitalists who want to come down to Lake Michigan, I’m gonna start organizing.”

That day, a website went live Chicagoteaparty dot com (top pic), which is awfully fast, only the first domain was actually registered in August of last year, and had lain dormant, but suddenly sprung to life, calling for protest with Santelli’s rant on the front.

We also had another domain, created and going live that day, Officialchicagoteaparty dot com (middle pic), which was owned by one Eric Odom, a long time ‘Phant political operative, who created astroturf groups to support offshore drilling, which would directly benefit the business interests of the Koch families.

So, what’s going on?

Well according Playboy* (and mirrored at the Exiled for those of you who have to deal with content filters), the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (VWRC) is at it again, only it seems to be perhaps a few dozen people:

What we discovered is that Santelli’s “rant” was not at all spontaneous as his alleged fans claim, but rather it was a carefully-planned trigger for the anti-Obama campaign. In PR terms, his February 19th call for a “Chicago Tea Party” was the launch event of a carefully organized and sophisticated PR campaign, one in which Santelli served as a frontman, using the CNBC airwaves for publicity, for the some of the craziest and sleaziest rightwing oligarch clans this country has ever produced. Namely, the Koch family, the multibilllionaire owners of the largest private corporation in America, and funders of scores of rightwing thinktanks and advocacy groups, from the Cato Institute and Reason Magazine to FreedomWorks. The scion of the Koch family, Fred Koch, was a co-founder of the notorious extremist-rightwing John Birch Society.”

Added to this was the owner of Chicagoteaparty dot com is one Zack Christenson, who is a producer for a rightwing radio jock Milt Rosenberg, the man who came up with the bogus Barack Obama-Bill Ayers link.

It’s all a part of the “Sam Adams Alliance,” which has funding from the Koch family, though you have to go to cached copies connecting this to FreedomWorks, run by Republican House Majority leader Dick Armey and paid for by the Koch’s.

Note Santelli front and center on the FreedomWorks home page too.

Mr. Santelli’s contract with CNBC is up in a year, and getting a Youtube hit, even if it is AstroTurf, is likely to improve both his chances of renewal, and his chances for a big contract.

Not also that this has been going on for some time, as it’s also tied into angryrenter dot com, which has been registered for a year.

Seriously though, when you look at all these, there is a guy, his money, and perhaps a dozen other people, who were locked and loaded before the rant ever happened, and when the “grass roots” protests happened, they were lame and fake.

It’s kind of a metaphor for the Republican party as a whole.

H/T The Big Picture.

*Proving that Playboy, at least can do real reporting and cover real stories, in addition to being what the Brits call a “grumble mag”.

My Thoughts on Obama’s Iraq “Withdrawal”

I think that he got played by the military. There are likely to be over 100K troops until year’s end, because General Ray Odierno wants them there for elections, and over 50K for a stabilization force until the 2nd half of 2010.

I think that Obama did not want to deal with the “death by 1000 leaks,” that Clinton saw on gays in the military, and felt that some senior army officials, particularly Ordierno, who have already pretty much said that they would ignore the status of forces agreement.

This should have been fixed in 1993, by Bill Clinton firing Colin Powell for insubordination, and could be fixed now by firing Ordierno if he steps out of line.

Truman’s precedent with MacArthur stands, and should be enforced.

In the short run, Obama needs to start pulling out the extensive infrastructure at the “superbases,” such as maintenance and communications, so as to reduce the military utility of these facilities for use outside of Iraq, as quickly as possible.

Not Just AIG, But the Entire Financial System

Seriously, this New York Times article on AIG, is a quick and layman accessible recounting of what went wrong there, and now that the Taxpayer is laying out another $30 to prop them up, with the approval of the ratings agencies who made this problem possible in the first place, it bears reading.

What we see is a metaphor for the entire rotten “Anglo-Saxon” system of unregulated hyper-capitalism.

AIG does not exist any more, what’s there is a simulacrum of a going business, fueled by zombie juice amounting to over $150 billion of taxpayer dollars, with the promise of more federal support, but that’s not the important part.

The important thing is are not just talking recklessness and incompetence here, we are talk real and deliberate crimes, and even now the authorities don’t have the slightest inclination to prosecute.

What took AIG down was a division that wrote credit default swaps (CDS), lots of them, and then, when they came due, they were bankrupt.

A CDS is a piece of paper that allowed them to insure all sorts of dodgy documents, but lacked the regulation, and the reserve capital requirements, of real insurance.

They wrote them because people were willing to pay them to write them, and people were willing to pay them because it allowed them to “lease” AIG’s AAA rating (see the ratings agencies linked above) for their financial instruments.

The result is that if AIG is allowed to die, instead of remaining in its undead state, everything blows up:

…. Yet the government feels it has no choice: because of A.I.G.’s dubious business practices during the housing bubble it pretty much has the world’s financial system by the throat.

If we let A.I.G. fail, said Seamus P. McMahon, a banking expert at Booz & Company, other institutions, including pension funds and American and European banks “will face their own capital and liquidity crisis, and we could have a domino effect.” A bailout of A.I.G. is really a bailout of its trading partners — which essentially constitutes the entire Western banking system.

I don’t doubt this bit of conventional wisdom; after the calamity that followed the fall of Lehman Brothers, which was far less enmeshed in the global financial system than A.I.G., who would dare allow the world’s biggest insurer to fail? Who would want to take that risk? But that doesn’t mean we should feel resigned about what is happening at A.I.G. In fact, we should be furious. More than even Citi or Merrill, A.I.G. is ground zero for the practices that led the financial system to ruin.

“They were the worst of them all,” said Frank Partnoy, a law professor at the University of San Diego and a derivatives expert. Mr. Vickrey of Gradient Analytics said, “It was extreme hubris, fueled by greed.” Other firms used many of the same shady techniques as A.I.G., but none did them on such a broad scale and with such utter recklessness. And yet — and this is the part that should make your blood boil — the company is being kept alive precisely because it behaved so badly.

They fail because if AIG fails, then their CDS contracts are worthless, and they have to account for their assets at their actual value, and overnight they become insolvent.

So, AIG is Sheriff Bart from Blazing Saddles, holding the gun to his own head, saying, “Hold it! Next man makes a move, the n***** gets it!”

Of course, this isn’t criminality (though it should be), this is Republican economics, privatizing the profits while socializing the losses.

The criminality is further down in the article:

….A.I.G. didn’t specialize in pooling subprime mortgages into securities. Instead, it sold credit-default swaps.

….But it also saw the fees as risk-free money; surely it would never have to actually pay up. Like everyone else on Wall Street, A.I.G. operated on the belief that the underlying assets — housing — could only go up in price.

That foolhardy belief, in turn, led A.I.G. to commit several other stupid mistakes. When a company insures against, say, floods or earthquakes, it has to put money in reserve in case a flood happens. That’s why, as a rule, insurance companies are usually overcapitalized, with low debt ratios. But because credit-default swaps were not regulated, and were not even categorized as a traditional insurance product, A.I.G. didn’t have to put anything aside for losses. And it didn’t. Its leverage was more akin to an investment bank than an insurance company. So when housing prices started falling, and losses started piling up, it had no way to pay them off. Not understanding the real risk, the company grievously mispriced it.

(emphasis mine)

So they sold insurance, and never had any intention on paying off, because if they had, and remember that AIG is (was) at its core an insurance company, even absent regulatory demands, they would have put aside something in the way of capital reserves.

This is the same as selling phony stocks. AIG, or more at least its everyone in a position of responsibility in its financial practices unit in London, where the swaps were written and sold, and everyone involved in supervising these activities, up to and including the CEO, and probably the board of directors, knowingly sold a fraudulent product.

Levin and McCain Look to Give Nunn-McCurdy a Steroid Injection

They are proposing the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act, which is intended to add some teeth to the 1983 NunnMcCurdy Amendment.

NunnMcCurdy requires congressional notice when a program goes 15% over budget, and termination when it goes 25% over budget, unless the DoD certifies it as “essential to the national security,” but this has come to mean very little, as evidenced by the F-22, DDG-1000, FCS, JSF, EFV, LCS, etc.

According to Senator Carl Levin, the measure includes:

  • Address problems with unreasonable performance requirements by requiring DOD to reestablish systems engineering organizations and developmental testing capabilities; make trade-offs between cost, schedule and performance early in the program cycle; and conduct preliminary design reviews before giving approval to new acquisition programs;

  • Address problems with unreasonable cost and schedule estimates by establishing a new, independent director of cost assessment to ensure that unbiased data is available for senior DOD managers;

  • Address problems with the use of immature technologies by requiring the Director of Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) to periodically review and assess the maturity of critical technologies and by directing the Department to make greater use of prototypes, including competitive prototypes, to prove that new technologies work before trying to produce them; and,

  • Address problems with costly changes in the middle of a program by tightening the so-called “NunnMcCurdy” requirements for underperforming programs.

What is interesting here is that this is juxtaposed with the appointment of Ashton B. Carter as Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition.

Carter is a Harvard professor, and has no ties to the defense industry. His career has largely involved criticizing the defense industry while at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and he served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy under Clinton.

The Iron Triangle types do not like him, which means that I do, though I hope that he has the bureaucratic chops to make this work.

Well, That Makes 3 F-22 Shootdowns in Excercises


Stephen Trimble had a walkaround at Electronic Warfare Appreciation Day at Andrews AFB, and he noticed noticed this EA-18G “Growler” electronic warfare aircraft.

Look at the bottom picture: the pilot bagged an F-22 in exercises at Nellis.

This does raise an interesting question, how does an aircraft largely dedicated to electronic warfare bag what is supposed to be the hottest jet out there.

I think that it comes down to the fact that the F-22 had to get close to burn through the jamming, and once it did, its size, the aircraft is roughly as large as an F-14 Tomcat, made rather more visible to the Mark 1 eyeball than the F/A-18.

This raises an interesting question as to the effectiveness of the aircraft in a heavily jammed environment: will this require the Raptor to get close enough to its target that it is then in a visual conflict, where it will be more visible than its opposition.

Hrm….

Defense Procurement at Its Finest

So, it appears that the electromagnetic catapult on the Ford is behind schedule and over budget, and the contractor is asking for more money, because if they have to go back to steam, they have to tear up the ship, including its engineering plants.

So, they will get the money, and they will deliver late, and, unless I miss my guess, we will seeing a F/A-18s hitting when the catapults fail, as the bugs are worked out, at cost plus.