Year: 2009

New Helos Finally Enter Russian Service

With development beginning in the 1970s, the Mi-28N and the Kamov Ka-52 attackers, and the more recent Ansat-U training helicopter, are finally entering Russian service in meaningful numbers.

The Mi-28 “Havoc” was intended to replace the Mi-24 “Hind” in the 1980s, and the Ka-52, a derivative of the single seat Ka-50 attack helo, which was the winner, and then the loser, against the Mi-28 over the past few decades looks to serve as a scout attack helo.

It looks like both will eventually, the radar is still in development, be equipped with millimeter radar guided missiles, much link the longbow.

Iceland Looking to Join EU

Or possibly to just adopt the Euro as its currency.

It looks like they may be making an application in the next few months.

One complication is that the new governing coalition would be at odds over this, with the Social Democrats favoring it, and the Left Greens opposing it.

There will be an election in May, and I think that the Left Greens will do well, if just because the Social Dems were previously in coalition with the Independence Party, and so had a hand in creating the laissez-faire policies that have left them in a lurch.

Economics Update

The gross domestic product (GDP) fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the 4th quarter of 2008, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 1982.

This is better than expected, but probably worse than it sounds.

First, the Fed Funds rate had peaked at almost 20% in 1981, and was still at 15% in early 1982. The Fed was trying to create a recession to short circuit inflation. (See graph pr0n)

Also, I agree with Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture when he says, “The advance GDP data was released. I expect the revisions will make this even worse.”

Meanwhile, Calculated Risk’s Credit Crisis Indicators are showing improvement, most notably with treasury yields increasing, which implies that there is more competition for that money from other borrowers and lenders.

That being said, we are in a very weird place economically when an increase in interest rates is good news.

There are some dark spots in the indicators, the Chicago Purchasers’ January Index fell to 33.3, the lowest level since March, 1982….There it is again…..1982, and the Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell to a record low in December, which means that we aren’t seeing much buying on a wholesale or a retail level.

In energy, oil is up on concerns about the refinery strike, and in currency, the dollar is up on low Euro Zone inflation numbers, which suggest that the ECB might cut rates again.

Rank and File House Dems Want Tax Cuts Out of Stimulus

After the stimulus proposal got no Republican votes at all, it appears that the rank and file house Democrats are telling their leaders that they have no interest at all in making nice:

Rank-and-file Congressional Democrats had been willing to give Republicans the business tax cuts and other provisions they wanted in the stimulus. That is, up until every single one voted against the bill on the House floor Wednesday.

Now, in both the House and the Senate, angry members are lobbying Democratic leaders to yank those tax breaks back.

I would agree. All that kowtowing to the ‘Phants does is make your policy prescriptions worse.

There is no common ground on which to negotiate. Republicans at the national level, particularly in the House of Representatives, have no interest in making things better while they are in the minority.

The ‘Good Bank’ Solution

Willem Buiter at the Financial Times writes to endorse the idea of creating government owned and operated lending facilities to replace the insolvent banks:

There is an alternative solution to the problem of valuing the toxic assets. It would not involve nationalising the existing banks. Instead the state would create one or more new ’good’ banks – all state-owned and state-funded to begin with. Effectively, some or all of the existing banks would become bad banks. The good banks would acquire the deposits and the good assets of the bad banks or legacy banks. The good assets are, by definition, easy to value. The creation of multiple good banks may be desirable to encourage competition. One could even create a good bank for every existing bank: New Citi, New RBS, New ING etc.

I posted this a 10 days ago, but he writes better.

The basic point is that the banking industry does not have to be preserved. What has to be preserved is transparent access to credit.

Zimbabwe Update

It looks like the MDC will join the ZANU-PF in a unity government.

Unfortunately, it appears that the MDC will have no control of the state security apparatus, so I’m wondering if this will be as hollow as Nkomo entering government.

Of course, right now, government actually has to work, with current cases of cholera estimated to be in excess of 60,000, and the currency so debased that foreign currencies will now be allowed to be officially used in commerce.

I think that 5 years from now, there will be no Zimbabwean dollar at all.

The EU has tightens sanctions on prominent ZANU-PF members, but I don’t thing that this will amount to much

Hey! I Voted Against That Guy!

Three Times!

Twice as Robert Leroy “Bob” Ehrlich, Jr.’s Lt. Governor, and once for the Senate when he ran against Ben Cardin.

Now Michael Steele has been elected chairman of the RNC.

My take on him is that he is really, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY stupid.

He is, after all the guy who compared stem cell research to the Holocaust…..to the Baltimore Jewish Council.

The frightening thing is that he might have been the smartest one there, what with Ken Blackwell, Katon Dawson, etc. being on the ballot.

I don’t think that he will make a lick of difference though.

The Road to 60 Through the Commerce Department?

We are hearing reports that New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg (R) is being considered for Secretary of Commerce.

This is interesting for a number of reasons:

  • Secretary of Commerce is typically low profile, the last, and possibly only “Rock Star” Secretary of Commerce was Herbert Hoover.
  • Gregg is a sitting senator in a state that has become reliably blue, so this might be preferable to his standing for election in 2010.
  • The governor of New Hampshire is John Lynch, who is a Democrat, and would likely appoint a Democrat to the post.

If this is true, then, once the Norm Coleman clown show is done, we would have 60 votes against a filibuster, assuming, of course, that Joe Lieberman doesn’t knife the Dems in the back.

The Minnesota Election Trial Continues to be the Norm Coleman Clown Show

Well, we just had another example of one of Coleman’s hand picked witnesses saying something that they shouldn’t, though this time, it was under cross, as opposed to direct, examination.

Peter DeMuth admitted that the Coleman challenge team cherry picked him, even though they have maintained that there has been no such activity:

Upon cross-examination by Franken attorney Kevin Hamilton, DeMuth said he was contacted by the Republican Party and told about the problem. “They asked me if I knew my absentee ballot had been rejected. I said no,” said DeMuth. “They asked me if I was a supporter of Norm Coleman, and I said yes, and they proceeded to ask me if I would like to go further.”

Let’s think about this for a moment: Over the last several days, the Coleman camp has said repeatedly that they are not cherry-picking who they’re helping out, that they don’t know who the people they’re advocating for actually supported, and for all they know they’re helping out Franken-voters.

This is becoming really pathetic.

I’m not sure why Norm Coleman and His Evil Minions&trade are doing this…My best guess, based on nothing, is that they figure that they will have a donation list that they can use in the future that is, as Rod Blagojevich would say, is “Bleeping Golden.”

Senate Passes SCHIP Expansion

One interesting thing is that ‘Phant support for the bill has plummetted, because the prior times that they voted, they knew that Bush would veto, so there was no chance of it becoming law.

The Republican Party, opposing healthcare for children since 1945.

The GOP claimed that it was about providing healthcare to the children of legal immigrants, but really, it’s another case of their opposing a program because it will work, albeit imperfectly, as it will still leave about 5 million children without health insurance.

A similar measure has already passed the house.

Geithner Needs to Work for the People of the United States of America

Barry Righolts of The Big Picture puts his finger on what is bothering me about Geithner:

  • You no longer work for the Banks: The NY Fed is a private corporation, doing the bidding of the FOMC and its private sector owners — primarily, the primary dealers. In other words, the President of the NY Fed works for the biggest commercial and investment banks in New York. That is no longer operational for you.
  • As Treasury Secretary, your immediate boss is the President, and your ultimate charge are the citizens of the United States, and the finances of the country.
  • When any conflict comes into play between the nation and the banks, you as Treasury Secretary are on the side of the Nation.
  • You cannot serve two masters, especially when they are in direct conflict with each other.

In its most basic form, all this talk about nationalization being somehow beyond the pale is really about people who do think that whatever is good for the banks is good for the county, and Geithner and Summers are both on that side….Or they are for now.

The question is not, “How do we save the banks,” it’s, “How do we get normal access to credit going again with a minimal impact on the taxpayer,” and throwing trillions at banks for their sh%$pile assets does not serve the nation or the taxpayers.

Major Oil Refinery Strike Possible

Talks between Royal Dutch Shell and the United Steelworkers do not appear to be going well, and a strike would idle about ½ the Gasoline refining in the United States.

The contract expires on Sunday, and if they go on strike, we can expect to see a significant spike in gasoline prices.

Needless to say, the ‘Phants would then be screaming for Obama to invoke Taft-Hartley, though I do not think that this would happen.

Activity Declined in Every State in December

For the first time ever, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released a report showing a decline in the coincident index in all 50 states.

Not only are we in a recession, but every single state is individually in a recession, for the very first time.

Look at 1982, when Paul Volker was doing his best to crush wages, and still, there were 7 states whose economies were expanding.

This is going to get very very bad.