Year: 2009

Just When You Think that Bush and His Evil Minions™ Can’t Get Any More Petty…..

Remember that Obama wanted to start living in Blair House on January 1, as opposed to January 15, because his two children needed to start school?

Remember how the Bushies said that they couldn’t because it was already booked.

It turns out that it was a lie. There was no one booked to stay there, and they hurriedly invited John Howard, Australia’s former Prime Minister for one night so that Bush could bestow upon him that final mark of shame, a Medal of Freedom.

Note that Blair house has 119 rooms and 35 bathrooms, so they might never have even seen each other.

They really are a group of very small people.

Economics Update

Umm….Holy excrement?

The payroll firm ADP Employer Services just released its report as to job losses in December, 693,000 jobs lost…..In one month…..The ironically named Challenger, Gray & Christmas is also saying that layoffs reached a 5 year high in 2008.

The BLS will release its numbers on Friday, but I rather expect them to hew pretty closely to ADP’s numbers, particularly since ADP has been working to make its survey match the government numbers.

It’s no wonder that late loan payments are higher than at any point since 1980, there are a lot of people out of work.

In retail, we saw U.S. retail sales fell 0.8% YOY in the week following Christmas, and mall vacancies are at a 10 year high, rising from 6.6% to 7.1%, the highest quarterly jump ever recorded, and the highest vacancy rate ever recorded.

We are also seeing mortgage applications down for the first time in 4 weeks, though that could people waiting for the Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage backed securities to drive rates lower.

We are seeing similarly grim economic data in Europe too.

About the only bright news is that GM is saying that it does not expect to need more in the way of loans…After $13.4 billion in tax dollars to GM and $6 Billion to GMAC, I would certainly hope so.

The jobs number drove the dollar down, and traders are starting to go long on the Canadian dollar, which implies that they expect commodities, oil and timber come to mind for Canada, to start going up again.

That being said, expectations were not met today, with oil falling by 12% on reports of large inventories…..They are literally running out of tanks to store the stuff.

Retail gasoline, however has risen for the 9th straight day, and is now higher than it was a month ago…..My thinking here is that there was an overshoot on the way down, and (assuming that oil stays around $50/bbl) we will be looking at $2/gal gas.

Harry Reid: Bite My Shiny Metal Ass

It seems that he is is afraid of his own shadow, because now he is going on about the risks of “overreaching”.

The American people don’t give a damn about overreaching right now. They care about results, and the Republicans will do everything that they can to prevent results, so when he says, “essential for President-elect Obama and congressional Democrats to work closely with Republicans in the new Congress,” he is simply giving Republicans a club to hit him with.

Tim Kaine to head DNC

I think that this development reflects a decision by Barack Obama to de-emphasize and reduce the activity level of the Democratic National Committee.

Regardless of his virtues or vices, and I see VA Governor Tim Kaine as a Conservative in the party, it’s clear that he can’t devote himself full time to running the DNC.

In normal times, being governor is a full time job, and now, with state finances imploding, it’s twice that.

Gaza Update

In what may be the most significant move of the war, Israelhas seized the Hamas TV station, Al-Aqsa.

Really I’m serious. I believe that one of the strategic goals of this war for the Israelis is seizing Hamas’s media tools, which play a significant part of their political apparatus.

I’m not making joke about how this war is really a hit called by Disney Corporation, because Al-Aqsa broadcast “Farfour,” an anti-semitic Mickey Mouse look-a-like.

There is more to this action than that, though I would still day, whatever you do, don’t f$#@ with the mouse.

The most interesting thing here is just how terrified surrounding Arab governments are of Hamas.

Notwithstanding Hamas’s Sunni theology, their close ties to Iran have Egypt, Jordan, and the House of Saud in particular concerned about some sort of revolutionary Shia tidal wave hitting them.

Senate Follies

Neither Franken nor Burris were sworn in today.

Burris was turned away because Harry Reid is taking a stand on principle, which he will shortly fold on, and Franken was not seated because the Republicans are using Reid’s brief flirtation with principle as a fig leaf for politics.

And I just heard on Countdown that the head of the Senate Rules Committee, Diane Feinstein,* has said that in fact Burris’s paperwork is in order.

This is FUBAR.

*Full disclosure, my great grandfather, Harry Goldman, and her grandfather, Sam Goldman were brothers.

What the Panetta Nomination Means (Bigger Intelligence Picture Edition)

I know a quick trick to determine the priorities in any program, look at the budget.

The US intelligence is $47½ billion dollars, with about 80% of that amount in the control of the Pentagon.

That actually puts the CIA pretty far down on the totem pole of priorities, and with the creation of the Director of National Intelligence, they no longer give the President the most expensive reading material in the world, the Presidential Daily Briefing.

First, we have a letter from a career military intelligence professional to Josh Marshall who makes a very legitimate point, that recently, particularly over the last 8 years, the CIA has been increasingly cast as an organ of the Pentagon, and that this is not the essential role of the CIA.

The essential role of the CIA is to provide the civilian decision makers, particularly POTUS, with the information that they need to make their decisions, not the provision of targeting data to Predator drones.

So, just who is Leon Panetta, and what does it mean for the intelligence community in an Obama administration?

Obviously, his forceful rejection of torture and warrantless wiretaps is the first thing that comes to mind.

This implies that as DCIA, he will be looking into what happened, and why with the domestic spying and torture, and (hopefully) it will mean the end of these programs. (I’m not enough of an optimist to believe that there will be referrals for prosecution).

Also, there is a bit of almost 20 year old history regarding Panetta and Congressional oversight of intelligence:

And there’s this: in 1990, then-Representative Barbara Boxer (D-CA) introduced legislation that would have required the president to seek approval from the congressional intelligence committees before mounting most covert operations. (Under this legislation, the president could still stage secret ops to save American lives or rescue American hostages without asking permission from the committees.) The measure failed miserably. Only 70 members voted for it, but one was Panetta. Will that vote come up during his confirmation hearings? One wonders if Panetta still supports the idea of greater congressional oversight of CIA clandestine activities.

He was one of 70 people voting for this, so we can be reasonably assured of his support for Congressional oversight: he is unlikely to “go native,” and start stonewalling Congress.

That being said, his real job will be to fight the 800 pound gorilla in the room, the Pentagon, and its institutional imperative towards total control of the complete intelligence apparatus.

Panetta was Chairman of the House Budget committee, head of the Office of Management, and finally Bill Clinton’s White House Chief of Staff, and this background makes him uniquely suited to dealing with the separation of the CIA from the military octopus.

His background is budgets, bureaucracy, and access to the President, and these are precisely the levers that need to be worked in order for the CIA do its job properly.

Someone like Feinstein’s* favorite Steve Knappes, may very well have more hands on experience with intelligence, but he doesn’t have is the ability to thread the various needles, both in the White House, and with the Congress, to create in voice in intelligence agency that is separate from the Pentagon (and to a lesser degree the State Department), has the resources to collect the intelligence.

More importantly, Leon Panetta has the skills to make sure that this intelligence is presented to, and seriously considered by, the President and the rest of the national security apparatus.

*Full disclosure, my great grandfather, Harry Goldman, and her grandfather, Sam Goldman were brothers.

Economics Update

Well, real estate sucks, with pending home sales falling by 4% (BTW, Manhattan apartment prices fell 4% too, so ain’t nothing going up.)

Manufacturing data is out too, and it’s grim, with factory orders falling twice what was forecast in November, and Toyota deciding to idle its plants for 11 days over February and March.

The last time Toyota did this was in the early 1990s recession, and they did it for one day.

Services did better than expected, with the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing index rising. The prediction was that it would fall from 37.3 to 37 in November, but it rose to 40.6.

Better than expected, but any number below 50 still counts as contraction.

A bit of up news is that Calculated Risk’s Credit Crisis Indicators are showing improvement today.

But with all this going on it is no surprise that consumer bankruptcies rose by nearly a third in 2008.

The problem with the 2005 act was that people don’t declare bankruptcy on a whim, they declare bankruptcy when they fall of the tight rope that is middle class existence in the United States, and there is no safety net to catch them.

In currency, the dollar rose against the Euro, largely on the expectations of further rate cuts by the ECB.

In energy, oil finished the day down, but it spent part of the day above $50/bbl for the first time in about a month.

What the Panetta Nomination Means (Inside Capitol Hill Baseball Edition)

First on the inside baseball angle, it appears that some of the intel war horses, particularly in the Senate, are upset at the choice, and how it was made public.

Both Senators Feinstein* the new Intel Committee chairman, and Rockefeller, the outgoing chairman, have strongly expressed reservations about the appointment, based largely on their feelings that he lacks the experience to handle the CIA.

Someone, probably on the one of the two Senators’ staff, stated to NPR (I heard it on Morning Edition), that Leon Panetta was the least experienced appointment to head the CIA since John McCone in 1961.

That is not true.

A quick perusal of the DCIs gives a 1976 appointment who was significantly less experienced: 4 years in Congress, UN Ambassador, and Envoy to China before his appointment, as compared to Pannetta’s 16 years in Congress, his chairmanship of the House Budget Committee, with heading the OMB, and serving as Clinton’s chief of staff.

That relatively inexperienced DCI? George Herbert Walker Bush, who is still viewed with the affection that 6-year-olds reserve for Santa Clause among CIA old-timers.

What is interesting is that it appears that Feinstein* and Rockefeller, were blind sided by this announcement, while relatively less senior Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), was briefed and supports the decision, and this sentiment is mirrored by House intelligence committee chairman Silvestre Reyes and Rush Holt, Chairman of the House Select Intelligence Oversight Panel.

Additionally, you have Senators Pat Roberts Barbara Mikulski (scroll down), and Russ Feingold, , with Evan Bayh (true to form) waffling.

We are now hearing a sort of an apology by Joe Biden, “I’m still a Senate man and I always think this way: I think it’s always good to talk to the requisite members of Congress,” said Biden. “I think it was just a mistake,” but it’s a fairly perfunctory apology.

I do not think that this is an accident. We have a transition team that has professional OCD. They have a job application form that kills more trees than Paul Bunyan, and famously tight lips, people like this don’t “forget” to notify the current and former Chairmen of the Senate Intel Committee.

This is Chicago style payback for something, and it has at least tacit approval from the top (PEBO).

So, they Rockefeller and Feinstein* f^%$ed with Barack Obama over something, and now he’s dropping something on them by way of lesson….It’s not a piano, it’s more like emptying a chamber pot on their heads.

Gee, I can’t imagine what on earth they could have done to Barack Obama that would have thought that he was being messed with? I don’t know, maybe something that had Keith Olbermann going special comment on him? Something like that disgraceful telco immunity bill that Rockefeller and Feinstein* pushed so hard through the Senate?

We know that Obama voted for the bill, but it was painfully clear that this was not something that he wanted to deal with at that time, it being mere weeks after he cinched the nomination, and it was equally clear that it was a phenomenally bad bill.

Barack Obama, or someone very senior in his staff, believe that Rockefeller and Feinstein pushed the bill to cover their own posteriors. They are accessories to illegal wiretaps and torture, and while Congressional immunity may protect them, they would much rather not have to find out how a judge rules.

I think that this is why you have seen the meticulously botched roll-out of Leon Panetta: It’s botched enough to turn the knife, but not botched enough prevent the nomination from leaving the Senate Intelligence committee.

I’ll post about what I think the bigger picture is in terms of what this means for the intelligence establishment later. (I actually find that bit more interesting)

Anyway, that’s what I think. I could be wrong, and Atrios could be right:

It’s about the club, insider knowledge and privilege, and, yes, crimes, criminals, and their enablers.

Gotta keep it in the family, otherwise who knows what might happen?

*Full disclosure, my great grandfather, Harry Goldman, and her grandfather, Sam Goldman were brothers.

Good Nesw on the, “Bigots Want Your Stuff,” Front

The bigots who want to leave the national Episcopal church because its to tolerant of “te gay”, have just lost one in court.

The California Supreme Court has ruled that the parish property they are on belongs to the national church, not them:

The state high court said it could resolve the St. James lawsuit by looking to property deeds, state law, the local church’s articles of incorporation and the national church’s canon and rules.

Although the deeds showed the local church owned the property, the parish had agreed to be part of the greater Episcopal Church of the United States and to be bound by that church’s rules, the court said.

The church added a section to a canon in 1979 that said parishes held property in trust for the greater church.

“The local church agreed and intended to be part of a larger entity and to be bound by the rules and governing documents of that greater entity,” Chin wrote.

Justice Joyce L. Kennard wrote separately to say that no secular institution would be permitted to take someone’s property that way.

Good for them.