Year: 2009

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

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So, let me get this straight, the latest foreclosure prevention program from the Treasury involves evicting people from their homes:

HAFA already holds the support of Fannie, according to a VP at the agency, Eric Schuppenhauer, who believes the new program allows borrowers in imminent default to “make a graceful exit” from their home. HAFA will keep the stigma associated with foreclosure away from the borrowers, he added, and help keep communities intact.

Maggiano adds that HAFA will offer financial incentives to both servicers and borrowers, and associated secondary investors, in order to facilitate a short sale or deed in lieu of the property.

So, this is sensible policy, while giving bankruptcy judges the power to cram down mortgages, like the do for almost every other sort of debt is evil socialism, or maybe a bad hair day, or something bad.

Huh?

H/t Atrios

Economics Update (a Day Late)

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Foreclosures hitting high end homes


Hotel Pulse Index


Baltic Dry Index, a Measure of Shipping Demand, Courtesy Barry Ritholtz

You know, there are very few guaranteed money makers, but one is owning baseball club, and the Chicago Cubs have just filed for bankruptcy, which says something about the state of the economy.

I know that this is really an artifact of Sam Zell’s completely idiotic business model, which seemed to be:

  1. Collect Underpants
  2. ?
  3. Profit

Except, of course, Zell was collecting short term loans, rather than underpants.

Of course, it’s not only big debtors like Zell who are getting into trouble. You are seeing foreclosures increasing among more expensive homes, which gives the lie to the constant refrain from many in the right wing that it’s all the fault of those n*gg*rs irresponsible borrowers.

It’s going to get worse, and it’s likely to create another crisis if Wells-Fargo’s numbers on Option ARMs carry across the industry, which are unbelievably grim:

“Several of our investors have questioned the current loss severity in light of negative amortization and home price decline,” researchers wrote in the report. “Our analysis suggests that option ARM loss severity will likely range between 60% and 70% provided home prices have stabilized.”

So 60+% of the option ARM are expected to go bad, even if house prices are not falling any further.

We are also seeing a continued drop in hotel activity, which implies that both consumer and corporate travel remain moribund.

The bottom piece of chart pr0n is the Baltic Dry Index, basically an index of shipping costs, though it is also a very good proxy for shipping demand, and this appears to indicate that the need for shipping, and hence the level of international trade, is still well off.

We are some seeing some interesting activity in US Treasuries now, with bonds rising, and their yields thus falling, on the expectation that the Fed will print more money and that inflation will remain low, but Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are also showing signs of expanded demand, which implies that at least part of the bond market is betting on increased inflation in the relatively near term.

We have some good news, in that the recession appears to be well and truly over…..In New Zealand, with retail sales jumping there.

This would explain why both the $NZ and the $Aus rose significantly yesterday….Well, that and the fact Australia’s central bank raised rates last week.

The US dollar was otherwise mixed, weaker vs. the Euro, but up vs. the Pound Sterling and Yen.

Oil rose yesterday too, as a result of a combination of cold weather in the US and optimism about the economy.

More Evidence that Rick Perry Didn’t Care that He Let an Innocent Man Die

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He might be a murderer, but he has such nice hair.
So did Ted Bundy.

So, we are now seeing evidence that Texas Governor Rick Perry allowed a man to be executed without consideration of his likely innocence.

It’s Texas, which means that a governor blithely signing off about putting a needle in someone’s arm with no more than a cursory examination, typically less than 15 minutes, of the record is the standard for Texas, and it is one that Perry’s two predecessors, George W. Bush and Ann Richards hewed to pretty closely.

What is different is that there is now an investigation of the execution of Cameron Todd Willingham, where it is now pretty clear that there was no murder, the accusation was of murder by arson, because the fire was not arson.

This is the strongest case seen in some time for actual innocence of a man who has been executed, and the Texas Forensic Science Commission was looking into the case, when Rick Perry’s staff first pressured the panel chairman not to investigate this issue, and then fired half the commission to prevent public testimony by one of the foremost arson experts in the nation.

Meanwhile, it appears that the governor’s office is now in full stonewall mode, refusing to turn over documents showing what evidence he reviewed before denying clemency, and how long he reviewed it.

Let’s be clear, this is Texas. Rick Perry did not review the material in any serious way, because that is part of the social contract down there: You don’t let innocence get in the way of a good execution.

On a purely political note, Rick Perry is getting a serious primary challenge from Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is criticizing him on his firing the panel, and his actions are stupid.

His real challenge is in the Republican primary, and the Texas Republican Party is about the most antediluvian Republican party in the nation.

From a purely political perspective, as immoral as it sounds, he should not be covering this up. He should be proclaiming from the high heavens that when a Texas jury wants a man dead, he will go to the wall to kill that man.

That would immediately make him the “it girl” of the Texas Republican party.

He already has the hair to be an “it girl”.

Here is a vid of Alison Stewart, who subbing on Rachel Maddow’s show, going over the basics.

What’s the Difference Between a Trend and a Media Fad?

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Change in Reserves

Truth be told, I don’t know, but this article from Bloomberg is about the 5th or 6th article that I’ve seen this week, so either a tiptoe toward the exits is beginning, or the press is going all herd mentality on the rest of us:

Central banks flush with record reserves are increasingly snubbing dollars in favor of euros and yen, further pressuring the greenback after its biggest two- quarter rout in almost two decades.

Policy makers boosted foreign currency holdings by $413 billion last quarter, the most since at least 2003, to $7.3 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Nations reporting currency breakdowns put 63 percent of the new cash into euros and yen in April, May and June, the latest Barclays Capital data show. That’s the highest percentage in any quarter with more than an $80 billion increase.

I honestly don’t know which one it is, though I kind of hope for a falling dollar, since many of the inefficiencies in our economy are due to an excessively high dollar, which both creates large trade deficits and harms domestic production, and serves to prop up Wall Street and enable it to seize a greater proportion of our economy.

(On edit, added chart pr0n)

If You Want to Have an Opinion On Spending, Pay Some Damn Taxes

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So, the Conference of Catholic Bishops is saying that it would be , since they don’t like them, but somehow or other they don’t say a single word on the millions of dollars spent every year on capital punishment that the Pope also says is immoral, or the bank bailout, when the Pope condemns the excesses of capitalism, or the fact that our current system of healthcare victimizes the weak and helpless and kills them.

How about calming down, and drinking a nice warm glass of shut the F%$# up?

I Have No Clue What this Means

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Because I’ve yet to find a good synopsis of what exactly Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson, actually do, but what ever it is, it won the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Their field of study appears to be how organizations structure themselves, which would seem to me more like anthropology or sociology, but there is always an overlap, particularly given the fact that the idea of the purely rational actor in a market has been challenged by recent events and the relatively new field of behavioral economics.

It appears that one of their discoveries is that competitive markets don’t always deliver the optimal results, and that cooperation frequently beats competition, which sounds to me like it’s straight out of anthropology.

Understand, however, that I have no clue what this actually means.

I am a Complete Moron

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I spent 2 hours today trying to get a video of my daughter off a DVD that my neighbor, Michelle took of Natalie singing when she was at North Bay camp with her middle school class last year.

I kept getting parity and read errors, I tried a dozen utilities, with no luck….Then it hit me.

How about Cleaning the Fracking DVD?????

After about 30 seconds with a cloth for cleaning eyeglasses, the videos were on my hard drive.

As the saying goes, “ない愚かさはない薬です”.*

*Pronounced in Japanese, “baka ni tsukeru kusuri wanai”, which means, “There is no medicine for stupidity.”

Rush Jumps

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This is one big shark that he jumped.
With Frikken Lasers!

Because Rush Limbaugh just literally threw in his lot with Iran and the Taliban:

LIMBAUGH: I think that everybody is laughing. Our president is a worldwide joke. Folks, do you realize something has happened here that we all agree with the Taliban and Iran about and that is he doesn’t deserve the award. Now that’s hilarious, that I’m on the same side of something with the Taliban, and that we all are on the same side as the Taliban.

(emphasis mine) The obvious question is whether or not Limbaugh’s sponsors really want a man who by his own admission, sides with Iran and the Taliban. I think that the award was premature, and likely undeserved, but I can say that without saying that I’m on the Taliban’s side. Why does Rush Limbaugh hate America? *The largest shark, and likely largest predator fish ever. It died out some 1.5 million years ago. The Genus is still in dispute, between either Carcharodon (Great White) or Carcharocles (broad toothed Mako). So in jumping C. Megalodon, you have jumped the biggest shark ever.

Swiss to Hold Referendum on Banning Arms Export

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For people who don’t follow history, the idea that the Swiss would ban arms exports seems to have little significance, but this is wrong, both historically today.

Swiss neutrality was a product of the fact that their main export from the 15th century or so was Swiss Mercenaries, the finest pikemen in Christendom, and so one of the motivations for neutrality was the ability to sell their services without regard to any alliances at home.

These days, of course, the Swiss are still in the war business:

  • MOWAG, whose Pirinah 8X8 AFV being the basis of both the Marine Corps LAV and the Army’s Stryker.
  • Oerlikon Contraves and its light cannon.
  • Wenger S.A. and Victorinox A.G., producers of the “Swiss Army Knife” (shown)

Though the last one would likely not be covered by such a ban.

In any case, it goes to Swiss voters on November 30, and is a part of an overall campaign by GSoA (Group for a Switzerland Without an Army) to demilitarize the nation.

Saab’s South Korea Offices Raided in Bribery Investigation

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It looks like its related to the ROK’s KF-X program, which is supposed to, at some point in the distant indeterminate future, yield a home grown fighter aircraft.

It appears that Saab was looking into partnerships on the program, and may, or may not, have paid off an official for technical data to help with a bid:

Saab acknowledged that its South Korean premises had been “inspected” last month but denied any wrongdoing and said it was co-operating with the investigation. SMI acknowledged their offices had been searched but declined to comment on the investigation.

Saab said the company had paid SKr120,000 to SMI to sponsor a seminar by its chief executive at a Swedish trade fair last March. But Saab had no ongoing relationship with SMI and had never paid the company for information on the KF-X, it added.

Not sure what’s going on, but I think that Saab is pretty desperate to get some revenue out of its investment in the Gripen.

Unsure as to Whether this is Brilliant, or Whacked

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But it appears that the Raytheon is working on an underwater surface to air missile based on the AIM-9X.

It appears that they are looking at autonomous operation of the missile after launch from a sub, as opposed the the German IDAS system which maintains a fiber optic link to the missile.

There are a number of reasons that I am dubious of such a system, the ability of a submarine to get targeting data regarding an airborne threat and the fact that the AIM-9X has pretty poor kinematics compared to other IR AAMS, because its motor is based on a 50 year old airframe.

On the other hand, this weapon is just about perfect for terrorists: Drop the canister off the end of a boat, and shoot down a passenger plane coming into land at a seaside airport.

Hypersonic Engine Pr0n

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Lockheed Martin and P&W’s Rocketdyne division are working on a hybrid propulsion system for hypersonic flight, (paid subscription required) which uses a turbojet to take off and accelerate to Mach 2+, with a dual mode ramjet (DMRJ), it does supersonic combustion at higher speeds, taking over beyond that, with the turbojet being cocooned.

It’s kind of a “Son of Blackswift.”

As it currently stands, wind tunnel tests are proceeding on the DMRJ (phase 1), with a system integrating both the turbojet and ramjet being testing together in phase 2, and eventually testing of the system in flight.

F136 Alternate JSF Engine Update

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So, the House-Senate Conference Committee agreed to fund the F136 alternate engine for the JSF, despite a qualified veto threat from the White House.

By qualified, I mean that “sources in the WH” have said that they would “recommend a veto,” if the engine were funded, which is quite different from the flat out statement that Obama would veto anything with the F-22 white elephant Raptor.

While the weak veto threat is one of the reasons that supporters of the alternate engine have gained momentum, there is also the fact that Pratt & Whitney is doing back-flips on cost and schedule in order to try to kill the RR/GE F136 engine, which reinforces the idea that they see a real threat their profit model for the F135 engine.

Additionally, the idea that the program managers can squeeze P&W just as hard if there is no competitor out in the wings is plainly ludicrous, and the F100/F110 “engine war” of the 1980s clearly shows that.

The reason that the DoD is fighting the alternate engine at this point, is because they really want the JSF, and even a small amount of money, even if it pays ten fold dividends further out, may push the JSF further down the delay/cost escalation/procurement cuts cycle.

Ashton Carter* pretty much says that flat out when he says that, “The crux of the analysis is that the additional upfront costs of a second engine are very clear and very real and the possible savings associated with a hypothesized competition in the future are much harder to estimate.”

That being said, the development of the F-136 is not going perfectly. The manufacturers just had to halt testing following the discovery of damage to the turbine, described as “nicks and dings”.

End of Stealth?

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Bistatic Radar


Typical RCS

So, Joint Force Quarterly has an article on the end of stealth (PDF link for article)

Certainly, the air forces of the world have been trying to make Giulio Douhet’s vision of strategic bombing vision reality for many years, and stealth technology had the potential of reducing the costs of striking a target to something approaching the Italian general’s original vision.

Of course, even in the case of air supremacy over the target, WWII over Germany and Japan, Korea, Vietnam, and both Iraq wars, it turns out that air power, at least without Hiroshima and Nagasaki, has been an abject failure at winning wars.

While I do agree with the basic thesis of the article, that improvements in processing technology, particularly in processing power available in compact packages,which allow for intermittent signals from disparate platforms to be fused into a coherent picture.

The author Arend Westra, places a high degree of value on what he calls “bistatic’ and “passive” radars, where the receiver is well removed from the transmitter, and, in some cases, the transmitter is something like a civilian TV or radio facility.

I am far more dubious of the capabilities of such systems for a number of reasons:

  • They have multiple points of failure.
  • For the United States in particular, civilian broadcasting infrastructure, because of its ability to transmit civil defense instructions and “enemy propaganda”, these are considered militarily significant infrastructure whose locations are well known, and are hit early in any war.
    • As an interesting philosophical aside, by the standards of the United States, the World Trade Center towers were legitimate military targets, because they were festooned with civilian radio and television transmitters.
  • I think that using processing will be cheaper than new technology.

This is not to say that I think that these sorts of systems won’t be deployed, as there is already an existing civilian infrastructure to piggyback on, but that they will be a part, and for anyone with half a brain a small part of a total system.

I think that as we move to the future, that any sort of strike package heading into an integrated air defense system will do with the Israelis did, where the idea of somehow blocking or flooding the network used to integrate the various sensors will become the most significant part of any mission planning.

I think that the biggest impact will be in the arms market, where nations concerned about air attacks may very turn toward increasingly sophisticated Russian air defense systems.

Well, That Trashed a Paint Job

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What you see below is a video of the USAF’s Advanced Tactical Laser doing its thing on a pick up truck.

I really don’t see a whole bunch of utility here. It’s a chemical laser, which means an extensive, expensive, and environmentally hazardous logistical tail, and things like sheet metal on trucks are much easier to heat that people, which have a lot of water in them, so it, “as a way to target individual insurgents,” seems to me to be somewhat dubious.

The advances in electrically powered lasers, particularly against things like mortars and Kyatusha rocketsIn any case, here is bonus Bond video, with the best Bond line ever™, from Mr. Goldfinger, not Sean Connery, “No Mr. Bond, I expect you to die.”

Another Stealth Aircraft Done in by Rain

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This time it’s the F-22 where the rain and humidity in Guam is causing shorts in its avionics.

This is the sort of sh$# that should have been handled in qualification, particularly for a plane that costs about $200 million.

I will say, however, that the last ‘graph is a classic:

The fighters’ maintenance issues had “no impact” on the strategic posture at Guam and did not put the island’s defense in jeopardy, Thomas said. The aircraft will continue to deploy to Guam and other parts of the Pacific, he said.

Because, I guess those folks in Palau and Ujelang are constantly threatening to invade.

Tanker Tango Update

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Yeah, like that really worked well.

Well, we have two bits of information, one technical, that Boeing is seriously considering submitting both 767 and 777 proposals for its KCX bid (s):

A lot of the defense press was puzzled by Boeing’s statement last week after the release of the draft RFP. “Our next step is to conduct a detailed review of the document. We want to understand how requirements will be defined and prioritized and how the proposals will be evaluated. That information will help us decide which plane to offer or whether to offer both planes. We appreciate that there will be frequent, open discussion with the U.S. Air Force as we go forward. Both the Air Force and the American taxpayer will benefit from the tanker options we can offer. Boeing has a KC-7A7 ‘family of tankers’ available to meet the warfighter’s requirements. Whether it’s the agile, flexible 767-based tanker or the large 777-based tanker, Boeing will deliver a combat-ready tanker with maximum capability at the lowest cost.”

I don’t know if they will submit both aircraft, but my guess is that any new proposal for the 767 will involve a variant that has already been produced, perhaps either Japan’s or Italys, as opposed to the “767-200 fuselage, a -300 wing and a -400 cockpit,” variant that they proposed last time around.

My guess is also that they will back off on their “super” refueling boom, which has still not flown.

I think that any 777 proposal would have to involve a shortened fuselage, because they are looking at a medium tanker proposal, and the 777 is otherwise too big.

On the other end of the bid, Northrop Grumman/EADS is concerned that Boeing received proprietary price data on their bid when they filed the challenge, which will give Boeing an advantage in the next course of bidding. (also here and (here)

And then there is what effect, if any, there is on this process of Airbus losing the WTO ruling on subsidies, and how this might alter the bid process.