Year: 2009

Oshkosh Wins FMTV Contract

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It beat out BAE subsidiary Stewart and Stevenson* to win the contract for the FMTV Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles, a bunch of cab-over 4×4 2½ ton and 6×6 5 ton transport vehicles.

I am surprised that they beat out Stewart and Stevenson.

This is not because of any great knowledge of capability in S&S, but because in the various attempts to compete this deal, competitors have always been leery making of a bid because of the low quality of the drawing package…..Talk about screwing up in reverse.

I guess that the DoD finally got around to insisting that a proper drawing package be produced, and once there was a drawing package that allowed other manufacturers to compete, it was inevitable that the award would go to a company with actual experience in making trucks.

The background of the original contract award is a bit “colorful,” BTW.

*Full disclosure I worked at Stewart & Stevenson, Tactical Vehicle Systems, in Sealy, TX on the FMTV in 1992 and 1993.†
†Yes, I have worked everywhere. Maybe I can’t hold down a job, but more likely this has been my role as “technical hit man”, where you are parachuted in to take care of a specific need.

On the F135/F136 Debate

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Well, we have Pratt & Whitney talking to the press about how very serious they are about containing costs, even though the latest estimate shows that its price will increase to $8.3M an engine, up from $6.7 million in the most recent DoD estimate. (H/T ELP Defens(c)e Blog)

People who cover defense for a living are noting that also there is no real indicator of a cost savings by killing the F-136, it just saves a few pennies now at the expense of a few dollars later.

In any case, the DoD is in full “cover your ass” mode with Secdef Gates telling Program Executive Officer, General David Heinz, to sit down and shut up, because he is being too forthcoming about potential benefits.

We also have dueling consultants on Aviation Week’s Ares weblog, with retired general Michael Hough (GE-Rolls Royce), dsaying that there was never a competition between the engines, and retired general Mike Loh (P&W) claiming that the bidders in the program competed the engines and selected the F136.

As it turns out, General Loh is lying. The bidders for the JSF, Boeing, Lockheed-Martin, and McDonnell-Douglas, never competed the engines, they simply selected an engine for the prototypes, and since the F119, the basis of the F135 engine was already in production, they deemed it more mature for the prototype effort. (see also
here)

It should be noted that the competition is already saving money for the government, as P&W is now offering a fixed price for the first 100 of their engines, in response to the GE-Rolls Royce fixed price offer.

BTW, as to the idea that P&W has their sh%$ together in regard to cost and performance? Maybe not, because the government is sending a team of fixers to evaluate the progam, a good indication of cost and schedule problems.

Did the FDIC Cave to Private Equity Buccaneers?

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This is a real conundrum, because while the FDIC’s vote to lower Tier 1 capital requirements for private equity purchasers of banks from 15% to 10% appears to be a capitulation, there is a twist in these regulations, in that the regulation does not call for 15% Tier 1 common equity, not just Tier 1 assets:

Under the rule that was adopted, such banks will have to maintain a 10% capital ratio, but the definition of capital isn’t Tier 1, it’s Tier 1 common equity.

Tier 1 common equity is close to tangible common equity, which is a stronger measure of capital than simple Tier 1.

…

Common equity is the best cushion of all because it sits in the first loss position. Preferred equity — which is included when calculating Tier 1 but excluded when calculating Tier 1 common — failed totally last year. Banks had issued a bunch in late ‘07 and early ‘08 in order to boost Tier 1, but because common was nearly overwhelmed with losses, investors higher up the capital structure panicked.

To be sure, the switch to common won’t have any effect on the day-one economics of these deals. Subordinated debt is wiped out when FDIC takes failed banks into receivership.

But this will discourage private equity guys from polluting the capital structure down the line. Hybrid debt issuance that would qualify as capital under Tier 1 won’t qualify under Tier 1 common.

Additionally, they will require that this level of capitalization be maintained for 3 years, and be audited more frequently to ensure that necessary capital is maintained.

I think that it is still an undeserved win for private equity pirate types, but it’s better than it appeared at first glance.

Afghanistan Conditions Lead to Resurgence in Active Rotor Blade Research

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Boeing SMART Rotor


H-60 Rotor with Individual Blade Control (IBC)


DARPA Concept: Potential Settings for Active Rotor

One of the differences between rotor blades and modern aircraft wings is the relative lack of sophistication of the rotor blades. While wings have had flaps and/or slats for years, and have actively changed the shape of the wing with the benefit of fly-by-wire controls since the 1970s, the F-16 being a prime example, rotor blades have remained a single fixed airfoil with no leading or trailing edge devices.

The extreme conditions in Afghanistan, where it can be hot, and it’s always high, have led to new research into leading and trailing edge devices for helicopter rotors.

Sikorsky is testing a control system with individual blade control, a departure from the current swash plate setup used in helicopters (middle picture) in addition to testing a system with actively blade flaps, and Boeing is testing a rotor with piezoelectrically driven flaps. (top picture)

Additionally, Sikorsky is looking at some more involved, and potentially fieldable concepts:

As part of the 30-month active rotor program with AATD, Sikorsky will also study active blade slats, adaptive flight controls and a dual-frequency rotor head-mounted vibration suppression system. The study will produce the conceptual design for an H-60 [Blackhawk & Seahawk] size active rotor.

DARPA is in on this too, with its Mission Adaptive Rotor program. (the mission adaptive wing program of the early 1970s led to much of what we have now on fixed wing aircraft).

They anticipate increases in payload and range of 30-40%, reducing noise by 50%, and reducing vibration by 90%.

An-70 Moves Forward

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Click images for full size

It looks like the on-again off-again An-70 transport project is back on, with Russia and the Ukraine signing agreement to restore development to the aircraft. (see also here)

Given the problems with that Airbus A400m, being at least 2 years late, 12 tons (!) overweight, and short on promised range and cargo as a result of these problems, the AN-70 has an opening here.

They both fly at the same speed, but that Antonov flies a bit further with a 20 ton payload 6,600 km as versus 6390 km, has a bigger max payload, 47 metric tons as vs 38 metric tons, which would seem make it very competitive, though its contra-rotating props are doubtless louder, and hence more of an issue for people living near their bases in western nations.

Whoever Did This Should Be Fired

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While it is completely appropriate for the Pentagon to lay out rules regarding the press and tactically sensitive information, what should not be done, but has been done anyway, is to have their work screened by a public relations firm in order to determine if they are sufficiently “friendly” to the military, as the has been done.

What’s more, it’s not just any whore house public relations firm, it’s the Rendon Group, who manufactured the Iraqi National Congress and provided part of the excuse for the invasion of Iraq, as well as being a CIA front for ginning up the invasion of Panama.

It should noted that similar “rating” of journalists resulted in a Stars and Stripes reporter being denied an embed:

U.S. Army officials in Iraq engaged in a similar vetting practice two months ago, when they barred a Stars and Stripes reporter from embedding with a unit of the 1st Cavalry Division because the reporter “refused to highlight” good news that military commanders wanted to emphasize.

The contract has now been canceled, but anyone associated with this program should be fired, and to the degree that this violates the law, or military regulations, they should be prosecuted.

Tekhomirov NIIP AESA radar unveiled for PAK-FA – The DEW Line

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So the Russians have now pulled the wraps off the Tikhomirov NIIP AESA radar intended for their next generation PAK-FA (see also
here)

The video says that it’s 2m in diameter, which would make it a big AESA array, but in the video, the model appears to be somewhere between 1 and 1.5 meters.

This appears to be a bit bigger than the APG-77 radar, which might be a way to improve performance relative to that radar.

Also note that the video shows some pitch and yaw on the array, which means that performance off bore sight should be pretty good.

It should do a pretty good job, even if the tech of the T/R modules is not as good, because antenna size tends to count for a lot.

Video pr0n for those of you who speak Russian:

Don’t Let the Door Hit Your Ass on the Way Out

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So, we are now hearing the inevitable stories about how rich hedge fund type folks are fleeing the UK because they don’t like the plans to raise the marginal tax rate. (paid subscription required)

Seriously, let them go.

When all is said and done, when the people at the very top of the pyramid leave, and stop bidding up the prices of essential commodities, like shelter, you end up with a more livable city with a real middle class.

If you have concerns about the tax base, just implement a Tobin tax on financial transactions, and you get the money, with the bonus that you reduce speculative arbitrage.

The financial “masters of the world” do not create wealth, they extract it from the rest of us through fees on our 401(k)s and retirement funds.

The expansion of financial services in the past 30+ years have been parasitism, not improved productivity.

Elections Matter, White House Visitor Edition

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So the White House will now release its visitor logs:

The first names posted to the White House Web site included health industry executives who met with the Obama administration to discuss his plan to overhaul health care.

The visitors, whose names were released in July, included Jeffrey Kindler, chairman and chief executive officer of New York-based Pfizer Inc., the world’s biggest drugmaker; New Brunswick, New Jersey-based Johnson & Johnson’s chairman and CEO William Weldon; and Stephen Hemsley, CEO and president of Minnetonka, Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group Inc., the largest U.S. insurer by sales.

Other visitors included former Representative Billy Tauzin, now president of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America; Rich Umbdenstock, president of the American Hospital Association; and Karen Ignagni, president and CEO of America’s Health Insurance Plans.

They are also releasing the Bush logs.

Gee, that was easy, why wasn’t this done 6 months ago? Why did they fight it until now?