Year: 2009

Inspector General Says Insufficient Oversight for TARP

Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general for the TARP, is saying that oversight by the US Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve is woefully inadequate, and he also places the price tag for the bank bailouts at as much as $23.7 trillion.

By way of perspective, the whole US economy (GDP) is about $15 trillion, and the the world GDP is is listed at $65.82 Trillion.

To quote the Bloodhound Gang:

The roof the roof the roof is on fire
The roof the roof the roof is on fire
The roof the roof the roof is on fire
We don’t need no water let the motherf#$%er burn
Burn motherf#$%er burn

We need to amputate the current banking system, and replace it with something that works.

Massachusetts Looks to Revamp its Healthcare

They are looking to move from a fee for service to a flat fee per patient.

I do not expect this to work. I think that the individual mandate is flawed, but it is the only thing that states are allowed to do under ERISA, so that is everyone’s solution.

Just eliminating the preemption clause from ERISA would go a long way toward solving the problem, because states would compete on the quality and cost effectiveness of their health care for businesses, as opposed to competing on tax giveaways.

Economics Update

The obvious lede here is that the leading economic indicators have risen for the 3rd straight month.

3 straight months is supposed to indicate that that a recovery is likely.

I’m not sure just what the recovery is supposed to be, as in the nonsensically titled article, “Commercial property price drop may signal bottom,” which takes the position that a -7.6% price decline in May, which followed a -8.6% decline in April, (-16.2% in 2 months!!), a -29% year over year decline, and -34.8% decline from peak is not the next tsunami in real estate and banking.

The fact that commercial mortgage defaults have hit a20-year high would seem to mitigate against any recovery any time soon in the commercial real estate sector.

In any case, commercial lender CIT, not to be confused with Citi, managed to cut a deal which staved off bankruptcy, and this calmed investors, which increased their optimism and appetite for risk, which
pushed the dollar to a 6 week low, and drove oil prices up, though retail gasoline, which lags oil prices, fell to an 8 week low.

Quote of the Day

I love this quote from Harold Feld’s Tales of the Sausage Factory:

More and more, I’m feeling like a volunteer for the “Mark Sanford in 2012 Committee” finding out what “hiking the Appalachian Trail” really means.

What he is talking about is the fact that the broadband stimulus package is being manipulated by the incumbents and the regulators to make it next to impossible for non incumbents to compete.

Basically, the stim money is to go to “unserved” and “underserved” census blocks, but only the incumbent carriers will be able to use the actual broadband penetration to document this, because such data is “proprietary.”

Catch-22.

One Very Big Plus to the Waxman-Markey Climate Bill

It appears that the legislation, which creates a Co2 cap and trade regime, also bans naked credit default swaps, and could be construed as banning all credit default swaps:

Here’s the key passage from Waxman-Markey, buried on page 1,070 of the 1,428-page bill introduced in the Senate on July 6:

“It shall be unlawful for any person to enter into a credit default swap unless the person:

1) owns a credit instrument which is insured by the credit default swap;

2) would experience financial loss if an event that is the subject of the credit default swap occurs with respect to the credit instrument; and

3) meets . . . minimum capital adequacy standards…”

Basically, a credit default swap is an insurance policy on a financial instrument, and a naked swap is an insurance on a policy in which one has no interest in its continued existence.

This section of the bill is clearly intended to ban naked swaps, but some people are arguing that the specific language of the bill actually bans all CDS, because the person selling the swap does not have own, “a credit instrument which is insured by the credit default swap,” but by selling the insurance they are “entering into” the CDS.

My guess is that the courts will not view this as a ban on all CDS instruments, and if Waxman-Markey bans nakes swaps, this is enough to justify support the bill on its own, as weak as it is.

By background, in insurance, it’s forbidden to, for example, take out insurance on things like your neighbor’s home, and has been for some time:

In 1746, Parliament passed the Marine Insurance Act, requiring anyone seeking to collect on an insurance contract to have an interest in the continued existence of the insured property. Thus was born the insured-interest doctrine. The indemnity doctrine, which precludes a buyer from insuring property for more than it’s worth, soon followed. The point of these rules is to limit insurance contracts to trading existing risks and not to create new risks by giving buyers of insurance incentive to destroy property. The doctrines have been part of insurance law in both England and the United States (which in 1746 were colonies under English common law) ever since.

Unfortunately, in the Greenspan/Rubin/Summers America, it was decided that this 263 year old lesson could be ignored, and so we have trillions of dollars in casino bets masquerading as insurance, but isn’t insurance, because then the contracts for naked swaps would be unenforceable as insurance policies.

H/t Kevin Drum

The Best Press Release Ever

Cyclone Power Technologies issued the following press release regarding rumors of it creating flesh eating zombie hordes:

PRESS RELEASE

Cyclone Power Technologies Responds to
Rumors about “Flesh Eating ” Military Robot

POMPANO BEACH, FL, July 16, 2009. In response to rumors circulating the internet on sites such as FoxNews.com, FastCompany.com and CNET News about a “flesh eating ”robot project, Cyclone Power Technologies Inc. (Pink Sheets: CYPW) and Robotic Technology Inc. (RTI) would like to set the record straight: This robot is strictly vegetarian.

On July 7, Cyclone announced that it had completed the first stage of development for a beta biomass engine system used to power RTI ’s Energetically Autonomous Tactical Robot (EATR™), a Phase II SBIR project sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Defense Sciences Office. RTI ’s EATR is an autonomous robotic platform able to perform long-range, long-endurance missions without the need for manual or conventional re-fueling.

RTI ’s patent pending robotic system will be able to find, ingest and extract energy from biomass in the environment. Despite the far-reaching reports that this includes “human bodies,” the public can be assured that the engine Cyclone has developed to power the EATR runs on fuel no scarier than twigs, grass clippings and wood chips – small, plant-based items for which RTI ’s robotic technology is designed to forage. Desecration of the dead is a war crime under Article 15 of the Geneva Conventions, and is certainly not something sanctioned by DARPA, Cyclone or RTI.

“We completely understand the public ’s concern about futuristic robots feeding on the human population,but that is not our mission,”stated Harry Schoell,Cyclone ’s CEO.“We are focused on demonstrating that our engines can create usable, green power from plentiful, renewable plant matter. The commercial applications alone for this earth-friendly energy solution are enormous.”

(emphasis original)

Somehow, I do not think that this press release will help much. They just cemented their position in the public view as a manufacturer of Cannibal Zombdroids.

If Leno, O’Brien, Letterman, Colbert, or Stewart’s writer’s hear about this, it will be how your company is introduced to mainstream America.

H/t Noah Shachtman.

That Sound is George Orwell Spinning in His Grave at 4800 RPM

Amazon sold copies of 1984 and Animal Farm in E-Book format for use on its Kindle reader, and when the publisher objected, it removed the books from its store, and from the Kindles of people who had already purchased the books.

The people bought these books, and thought that they owned them, albeit without the option of donating them at a later time, etc., but they were wrong, and all traces were removed from their readers.

As both David Pogue and Boing Boing note, this mirrors a number of concerns that people have with the new IP regime, and how it will apply to digital data.

Of course, the fact that these books were consigned to the “memory hole”, a term created by George Orwell in his book 1984, the irony here is obvious:

In the walls of the cubicle there were three orifices. To the right of the speakwrite, a small pneumatic tube for written messages, to the left, a larger one for newspapers; and in the side wall, within easy reach of Winston’s arm, a large oblong slit protected by a wire grating. This last was for the disposal of waste paper. Similar slits existed in thousands or tens of thousands throughout the building, not only in every room but at short intervals in every corridor. For some reason they were nicknamed memory holes. When one knew that any document was due for destruction, or even when one saw a scrap of waste paper lying about, it was an automatic action to lift the flap of the nearest memory hole and drop it in, whereupon it would be whirled away on a current of warm air to the enormous furnaces which were hidden somewhere in the recesses of the building.

As I am wont to say, “Who says that irony is dead?”

Zimbabwe Update

Well, the drafting of a new constitution is a complete mess, with ZANU-PF busing in thugs to disrupt the charter meeting.

In a darkly humorous development, it appears that ZANU-PF did not think it out fully, as they did not include transport back home for their thugs, who were stranded for a few days at the hotel at which the meeting is being held.

From the other side, there have been threats of boycotts from civil society groups, who claim that they have not been fully included in the process, and that parliamentarians have complete control of the process.

As a historical aside, this sort of stuff makes the US Constitutional convention, which was conducted in secret, look awfully attractive.

In terms of the current government, it appears that ZANU-PF is engineering trumped up charges against MDC members of parliament, in order to get them suspended, which, if done in sufficient quantities, would flip control of the chamber back to the ZANU-PF.

Notwithstanding the rhetoric about an inclusive government, I really don’t think that there will be any progress without a some external entity, and South Africa is the entity best suited to this, having a boot on Mugabe’s neck to coerce “good faith” moving forward.

Finally, it appears that the situation in the Zimbabwean diamond mines is getting worse. While the government has agreed to remove the army from the mines, “in phases”, but the army has refused to leave.

So the the “Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) has called for a temporary ban on trade in diamonds from Zimbabwe’s Marange fields“.

Major Change in Pentagon Strategy

General James Cartwright, vice-chairman of the JCS, has announced that the so-called two war strategy will be dropped at the next DoD Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR).

This is an unalloyed good. Not only has this policy, that the US should be able to defeat two “near peer” opponents in short order, created a ruinously expensive military, but it has also created a military that is ill suited to the current conflicts that we are involved in, where over-reliance on high-tech, and under reliance of boots on the ground, has led to our military losing, as opposed to winning, hearts and minds on the ground.

Sikorsky X2 Flying with Propulsor on

The X2 advancing blade helicopter has returned to flight, and this time, the propulsor is hooked up.

It only reached 52 kts in its initial flights around the end of last month, but Sikorsky is hoping to reach 250 kts by the end of the year.

So far, there have been no game stoppers, and, unlike its ABC helicopter predecessor from the 1970s, vibrations appear to be very low.

I would assume that at some point, they will be adding some sort of shroud on the rotor masts to reduce drag a bit.

The JSF Engine War

Desert Storm air commander, retired General Chuck Horner, makes some very good points as to why we should continue to fund the F136 alternate engine, though the obvious caveat is that he is consulting with GE, who is a part of the F136 team.

Basically, he recites a litany of problems, both from when he was commanding squadrons, and issues with the Saudi Air Force, where the Pratt & Whitney was unresponsive to customer concerns, and their F100 engine was unreliable and over priced, and whenever the competing GE F110 came up, the problems got fixed.

I recall reading about problems with the engine, and how it led to the USAF to fund development of the F110, then called the F101-DFE (Derivative Fighter Engine).

There were problems with reliability, price, and support that were fixed very quickly once there was a competitor on the horizon.

It appears to me that the F135 engine for the JSF is headed down the same path, we have P&W going though a number of cost cutting initiatives, promising that the engine will fall in price, while the manufacturer is saying that the cost savings as production ramps up may not meet expectations.

Much of the fair back from the Pentagon is, I think directed about getting copies of the F-35 JSF made now, and to hell with future operating costs.

The budget item for continuing development this year is small, about ½ billion, or less than the cost of 3 full aircraft, and promises real savings, and performance improvements, in the future.

BTW, as to nonsensical arguments against the F136 engine, we have CNO Gary Roughead saying that having two engines would be too much of a burden on a carrier, despite the fact that just for the fighters, there were 4 separate engines in the 1990s on carriers, the F404 for the F/A-18 C/D, the F414 for the F/A-18 E/F, the TF30 for the F-14 A, and the F110 for the F-14 D.

Additionally, the S-3 was still being deployed with the TF34 engine.

By the time that the F-35 enters naval service, there would be two types of fighters on deck, and either 2 or 3 engines, which would be a lower logistical load.