Year: 2009

News of the Optimism of “Dr. Doom” Have Been Premature

The wankers at CNBC reported that Dr. Nouriel Roubini said that he saw a recovery this year.

Not so, says the good doctor:

It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over ‘this year’ and that I have ‘improved’ my economic outlook. Despite those reports – however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

Someone saw a headline from slipping a phrase, and took it.

Card Check Killed in Senate

Most of the rest of the reforms remain intact, but the card check provision has been removed.

What remains is the right of unions to campaign on company property, a faster election cycle, which gives less time for employers to strong arm and illegally fire employees, making mandatory anti-union meetings illegal, and binding arbitration.

Truth be told, I expect it to be watered down further, because the Barack Obama administration has been studiously silent on this measure, throwing yet another key constituency, unions, under the bus as they have with labor.

This bill will not progress with meaningful reform without White House support, and none is forthcoming.

Economics Update

Housing starts rose from May to June, but as Barry Ritholtz notes, “The year-over-year data is much clearer: New Starts down 46%, Permits down 52%.” (The graph to the right illustrates this pretty well)

In either case, the housing data was better than expected, which drove oil up, bonds down (and thus their yields rose), and increased the spread between the 2 and 10 year notes.

The dollar rose today, but both the dollar and Yen have fallen more this week than they have since May, indicating an increase appetite for risk.

Still, the number that worries me is the fact that June video game sales are at a 9 year low.

When gaming geeks are cutting back, everyone is cutting back.

Economics Update

Yeah, it’s actually yesterday’s….What can I say.

Since Thursday is new jobless day, we lead with the fact that new claims for unemployment fell to a 6 month low, though it must noted that these are seasonally adjusted figures, and the still accounts for the spike from the July shutdowns of the GM and Chrysler, which happened earlier this year.

We have two other indices moving in opposite directions, with the Philadelphia Fed industrial index falling, and the NAHB builder confidence index rising, but I’m more inclined to go with the Philly Fed, it’s an index of activity, not sentiment, and also because RealtyTrac is reporting that foreclosure filings hit a new record for the first half of the year.

Mortgage rates stayed pretty much flat over the last week.

In energy, retail gasoline continues to fall, hitting a 2 month low, and crude oil fell on demand concerns.

The dollar fell as well, on increased optimism by investors, who have moved their money to more speculative ventures.

iHymen

Yes, someone has released an iPhone ‘purity ring’ application:

The iPhone has applications for almost everything, from helping people to choose the best wine for a meal to locating supermarkets in Holland. Now there is one to help them to stay chaste until marriage.

For just 59p, consumers can download an application that allows them to take a purity pledge and then display a silver ring on their phone to prove their commitment to abstinence.

I would note that people who take purity pledges are more likely to engage in oral sex, anal sex, unprotected sex, and parenthood, so the mind boggles at what sorts of risky behavior that this application will engender.

H/t Jessica Valenti

Dayam! I Get Some Whack Email!

And it wasn’t even addressed to me about this blog, it was on a little Yahoo Group that I run to facilitate the Owings Mills Jewish community.*

I have new members set to “moderated” so as to prevent the phenomena where some joins, posts spam, and leaves, and someone posted this over the top screed that appears to call for the murder of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama!

I looked at it, and was about to delete it, and then I looked again and thought that the phrase, “The death time of lucifer and united states and clinton is come. GOD said: ” Kill clinton , Destroy united states !” was enough.

I contacted the Secret Service, read them the letter over the phone, and they had me send a copy to them.

Jeebus, the hate out there is scary.

*Note that the poster is not Jewish. When the opening ‘graph reads, “I am called by Hashem of Israel – my Father GOD, the Most High, and the Son of GOD, the Messiah of Israel – my LORD Yeshua to convey GOD’s Words to people in the last days. I have proof, the visible Sign of HOLY SPIRIT like a Light Dove on my forehead, and the Sign of Light Cross on my face,” it’s clearly one of the Evangelical proselytization group, like J4J or MJ, behind this.

DoJ Probing Derivatives Trading

It looks like a serious investigation of credit default swaps and other derivatives has been initiated by the Department of Justice, and the investigation is specifically looking at the clearing of those instruments. (See also here)

What “clearing” means here is the process of actually settling the contracts for the derivatives, and much of it is done by one entity, Markit Group Ltd., which is owned by the Wall Street Banks.

This appears to be an anti-trust investigation, and my guess is that what they are looking at is that the buy and the sell prices, which always have a slight gap, this difference goes to the clearing agency and or brokerage, might have been manipulated through collusion to magnify this amount, and the profits thereof.

Here’s hoping that some bankers are frog-marched off of Wall Street.

Obama Looking to Restrict Antibiotic Use in Livestock

This is good news.

Basically, feeding tightly penned industrially raised animals antibiotics make they gain weight faster, probably because it suppresses minor illnesses.

It also creates things like antibiotic resistant E. coli, leaves residues in the food, etc.

The Dutch banned antibiotics in animal feed over a decade ago, and we know that the net cost of this change would be less than 5¢ a pound.

Additionally, it would make some of the more inhumane animal husbandry techniques less viable, because stressed animals packed in close quarters become more vulnerable to disease.