Year: 2009

Economics Update

Last week, I mentioned that some of the declines in continuing unemployment claims might be the result of benefits exhaustion.

Well now we have the chart pr0n to show it, and I’m now wondering how many of the people dropping off the rolls are actually getting work.

Still, we are seeing some signs of improving business confidence, this time it’s German business confidence, which is up for the 3rd straight month.

I tend to prefer less ephemeral statistics though, such as commercial real estate prices (down 8.6% from April and down 25% year over year) and the fact that rail and truck traffic are still trending down.

We are also seeing some more signs of a reduced appetite for risk, with the dollar strengthening.

In energy, both crude oil and retail gasoline fell, largely on good inventories and concerns about a jobless “recovery”.

Note that this is the first time that gasoline has fallen in 54 days.

Dodd Comes Out in Favor of Marriage Equality

I am not sure whether Chris Dodd’s official announcement of his support for marriage equality is being driven by a legitimate change in view, a recognition that the public is moving in this direction at a blindingly fast pace, or desperation over his otherwise low poll numbers in Connecticut following the entire business with his mortgage.

I really don’t care why he is doing this as much as I care that it is the right thing.

Pay Per View Review

It was my just-turned-12-year-old daughter’s turn to choose a movie, and she chose Twilight.

Kristen Stewart … Bella Swan
Robert Pattinson … Edward Cullen
Billy Burke … Charlie Swan
Ashley Greene … Alice Cullen
Nikki Reed … Rosalie Hale
Jackson Rathbone … Jasper Hale
Kellan Lutz … Emmett Cullen
Peter Facinelli … Dr. Carlisle Cullen
Cam Gigandet … James
Taylor Lautner … Jacob Black
Anna Kendrick … Jessica Stanley
Michael Welch … Mike Newton
Christian Serratos … Angela Weber
Gil Birmingham … Billy Black
Elizabeth Reaser … Esme Cullen

It’s a Vampire film, based on the book, which Natalie read, and enjoyed immensely, and it’s very much geared towards tween girls, and so she loved the book, and so chose the movie.

I really tried to talk her out of it, but she was having none of that, and it is a kind of a reward for her reading, so what can a parent do..

The plot is straight forward, Vampire meets girl, they fall in love, damsel in distress ensues.

For what it was, and I would not see this sort of film except under familial duress, it’s of fairly high quality, well shot, and well acted.

I think that the combat sequences could have been a bit better, but I’m a big fan of Kurasawa’s filming of combat in The Seven Samurai and The Hidden Fortress, which has a level of realism that would not match the target audience (12 year old girls).

It is what it is, and if you like what that is, and I really don’t, you’ll enjoy it.

The only surprises were that there were some legitimately funny bits to it, and I felt no need to claw my eyes out.

Why I’ve Not Been Posting on Healthcare Legislation

I think that it’s important, and it’s something of direct interest to me, I get my insurance, and pay a lot for it, through MHIP, but I simply do not believe that a meaningful plan is on the way, and so I find it to depressing to write about.

Between the belief that the plan needs some Republican votes, even though meaningful healthcare reform will cut their own throats politically, and the power of the insurance, the AMA, and medical lobbies, I just don’t see anything meaningful happening.

So, I read, and I get depressed, and how often can I call someone like Bayh, or Baucus, or Conrad pig felching rat bastards?

It adds very little to the understanding of the situation.

50% Off Peak

This is across the pond, where the there has been a £1.15 billion default on bonds for 9 office buildings in downtown London.

The value of the properties has declined 50% from peak.

We will see a lot more of this in commercial real estate, particularly since most of the loans are relatively short term, typically about 5 years, and the note will come due, and there will be no opportunity to refinance, because the value of the property has fallen.

H/t Calculated Risk

Father’s Day Has Never Been a Big Thing for My Dad and Me

My mom was killed by a drunk driver when I was 14, so we’ve always made a bigger deal over “Mutha’s Day,” since he raised me from that point on.

I always call him on Mother’s, and it’s usually an overseas call, as he typically hits Europe that time of year.

I’ve been doing that for years.

We actually got together for a cookout today, though his and my step-mom’s being here was about their annual trip out east for a conference in DC and not Father’s day.

Neither of us remembered until my daughter, Natalie, made mention of it.

I did up lamb chops for everyone but Charlie, my son, who is not a big fan of meat, so I did a Cornish game hen for him.

Of course, I used my Indian spice rub and plum barbecue sauce.

We hung out, shot the breeze, he gave lots of advice (he is my dad, after all), and a good time was had by all.

My wife and kids are going out for ice cream in a bit.

Russia Looking at AESA on MiG-35

This is not a development, as Russia, or more exactly the USSR, is the only nation to have fielded a combat fighter in squadron service with a phased array radar, the MiG-31 Foxhound.

It appears that much of this development is being driven by the Indian medium fighter competition.

The installation appears to be a bit tight (top pic) in the demonstration, though there may be more changes to shrink the “back end” of the radar and increase the aperture size in the production model.

The ground mapping imagery (bottom pic) does appear to indicate a very significant improvement in air to surface capabilities.

An Idea So Good, that the USAF Will Never Do It

Specifically, the idea that a relatively low performance airframe can serve better in the counter-insurgency (COIN) or the close air support role than something like the F-15, F-16, F-22, or F-35 JSF.

Not only would lower performance aircraft tend to have better short and rough field capabilities, just as the A-10 Warthog currently does, but they would be able to loiter over the battlefield for a much longer time, as they are designed for this regime, unlike aircraft designed to operate above 30,000 feet and to reach supersonic speeds.

Case in point, the Combat Air Tractor, an aircraft based on Air Tractor’s crop dusting aircraft.

It can take off and land off of rough airfields in less than 100m, and can loiter over the battle field for over 10 hours.(click slide show [top] for pictures of aircraft and weapons load outs)

The CAT also costs somewhere between $4 and $10 million dollars, as opposed to the $80-$200 million of a JSF, and it has been used in combat situations, spraying herbicide on coca fields and the like, and the aircraft is on the tarmac at the Paris air show.

While it would be an unlikely choice, there are also rumblings that the USAF is considering modifying their T-6 trainer for a similar role (bottom pic)

Personally, I’d favor something turbofan powered, because it could be designed with narrow-band stealth against radar guided AAA, but anything is better than the current plan, which is JSF’s for everything.

Lockheed Concerned That Israel Will Terminate F-35

Israel’s early order of the JSF has provided a lot of credibility to the program, but concerns about the escalating costs, and the inflexibility, the plane is a closed platform to which the Israelis cannot add their own systems,is causing some cold feet inside the IDF/AF.

By way of hand holding, Lockheed has proposed to offered to do final assembly in Israel.

While there has been a lot of effort to portray this aircraft as a colossus striding across the world military jet fighter market, it’s position actually seems precarious.

Locking Small Children in Car Trunks

And why this can be a good thing sometimes.

My wife is driving a rental car, because an adjuster is looking at her car, a 2008 Dodge Avenger.

While loading the trunk I noticed the emergency release handle on the latch (see crappy cell phone pic)

It’s there to deal with the problem of small children locking themselves in the trunk ans suffocating.

In condicting human factors resarch on how to make the use of the device as easy and intuitive as possible, at one point, researchers locked children in trunks of cars, and observed their progress on infra red cameras.

It’s kind of neat.

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GE-Rolls Gets Smart on F136 JSF Alternate Engine Bid

With the Pentagon gunning for the GE-Rolls Royce alternate engine, because they want their pig, the F-35 JSF, to fly as soon as possible, and the Pratt & Whitney’s F135 is already paid for, the alternative engine is behind the 8-ball, even if all indications are that it will provide superior performance, and that the competition between the two engines is likely to provide significant cost savings over time.

The F100/F110 competition between P&W and GE saved about 20%, but the basic F-110 was already flying as the F-101 on the B-1 bomber before it challenged the F-100.

The problem is that the services, particularly the Air Force and the Marines, want the JSF right now even more than they want the JSF get it right, and the money spent developing the F136 engine could be used to accelerate keep the schedule from slipping quite so much.

I think that it’s penny wise and pound foolish, but things being what they are, the Pentagon, and Lockheed are right about the fact that once the aircraft enters squadron service, it will be much harder to cancel.

Well, the F-136 team just had a cunning plan.

In fact, it’s so cunning, if you put a tail on it, you could call it a weasel: They are looking at making a firm, fixed-price contract proposal (paid subscription required) for the engine, which would make it a “known known”, as opposed to a “known unknown” (or maybe an “unknown unknown”, I gotta stop trying Rumsfeld-Speak, my head hurts).

In any case, the F136 does have friends on the House Armed Services Committee, who just added money for it back into the budget.

New York Senate Goes Kafka

Because turncoat State Senator Sen. Pedro Espada, he’s the one who runs the phony charity that he pays himself from while he breaks campaign finance laws, not the one who slashed his girl friend’s face, is now claiming that he actually gets two votes in the State Senate, because when the Republicans elected him president pro tempore of the Senate it gave him the “duties of the Lieutenant Governor” when there is no Lieutenant Governor.

I seriously think that this won’t end until some Senator goes Preston Brooks on another Senator on the floor.