Year: 2009

Economics Update


Unemployment Rates, Actuals vs. Geithner’s “Stress Tests”, courtesy Calculated Risk

Today, we get the unemployment rate (U3). It rose from 8.9% to 9.4%, a ½% rise.

Ouch.

By way of context, you can look at the BLS alternate measures table, and U6, which is probably closest to the figures used during the depression, though it still under counts relative to the older metric, rose from 15.8% to 16.4%.

Ugly number.

Of course, the press is reporting that the decrease in non-farm payrolls was less than expected, -345,000 as opposed to their projection of something in the -500K range.

Additionally, part of the increase in unemployment is workers becoming undiscouraged and actively looking for work, though the U6 number indicates that there was still an upward revision despite that.

Still, it appears that bondholders are betting on a recovery, they are bidding up the rates on treasuries, which is also driving up mortgage rates.

There is an argument between economists as to whether this is inflation concerns, or whether people have simply stopped fleeing headlong to the safety of US Government securities.

I’m with the latter school, but you can decide for yourselves.

As to where the economy is headed, I’d bet with the insiders and banks and such, and
insider sales as reported to the SEC are going up, implying that they are expecting worse for their firms.

Still, the jobs report drove both the dollar and oil up today.

Wy Wife Was Just in a Car Accident

Thankfully a non-injury auto accident.

Status of car is OK, but with an added dent, and she’s off to the chiropractor.

From her description, theother car, which apparently had blowout, and spun into her, was more seriously damaged, and she ended up pointing the wrong way on I-83, she got lucky.

Her back is bothering her a bit, probably because she tensed up, so she is at the chiropractors.

Part of Geithner’s PPIP is Dropped

Specifically, the so called “legacy loan program” has been “indefinitely postponed”.

Remember that in Treasury-speak, “legacy” is the word for toxic, and the program, which was to be run by the FDIC, could not get the banks to sell the loans.

According to FDIC chairman Sheila Bair, “Banks have been able to raise capital without having to sell bad assets through the L.L.P., which reflects renewed investor confidence in our banking system,” which actually makes no sense.

If they can sell the assets at a higher price because of federal guarantees, and the federal guarantees amounted to a subsidy of over 50%, which meant much higher prices than they would get otherwise, they would, except for one little thing:

Many banks have refused to sell their loans, in part because doing so would force them to mark down the value of those loans and book big losses. Even though the government was prepared to prop up prices by offering cheap financing to investors, the prices that banks were demanding have remained far higher than the prices that investors were willing to pay.

(emphasis mine)

The translation here is that if they sold their pieces of the big sh%$ pile, even with the government subsidy, they would lose so much water that it would be impossible not to recognize that the institutions were insolvent.

Basically, because of the dishonestly optimistic “stress tests,” and the banks strong-arming a change in mark to market rules by the Federal Accounting Standards Board, they can now, once again, hold this on their books at fictitious values, and so can pretend to be solvent, and go back to overpaying their incompetent senior executives.

Heck of a job, Timmy.

Obama Comes Out for Public Plan

This is significant, because he explicitly states that a public

Here is his letter Senators Kennedy and Baucus:

TEXT OF A LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT TO SENATOR EDWARD M. KENNEDY AND SENATOR MAX BAUCUS

June 2, 2009

The Honorable Edward M. Kennedy
The Honorable Max Baucus
United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510

Dear Senator Kennedy and Senator Baucus:

The meeting that we held today was very productive and I want to commend you for your leadership — and the hard work your Committees are doing on health care reform, one of the most urgent and important challenges confronting us as a Nation.

In 2009, health care reform is not a luxury. It’s a necessity we cannot defer. Soaring health care costs make our current course unsustainable. It is unsustainable for our families, whose spiraling premiums and out-of-pocket expenses are pushing them into bankruptcy and forcing them to go without the checkups and prescriptions they need. It is unsustainable for businesses, forcing more and more of them to choose between keeping their doors open or covering their workers. And the ever-increasing cost of Medicare and Medicaid are among the main drivers of enormous budget deficits that are threatening our economic future.

In short, the status quo is broken, and pouring money into a broken system only perpetuates its inefficiencies. Doing nothing would only put our entire health care system at risk. Without meaningful reform, one fifth of our economy is projected to be tied up in our health care system in 10 years; millions more Americans are expected to go without insurance; and outside of what they are receiving for health care, workers are projected to see their take-home pay actually fall over time.

We simply cannot afford to postpone health care reform any longer. This recognition has led an unprecedented coalition to emerge on behalf of reform — hospitals, physicians, and health insurers, labor and business, Democrats and Republicans. These groups, adversaries in past efforts, are now standing as partners on the same side of this debate.

At this historic juncture, we share the goal of quality, affordable health care for all Americans. But I want to stress that reform cannot mean focusing on expanded coverage alone. Indeed, without a serious, sustained effort to reduce the growth rate of health care costs, affordable health care coverage will remain out of reach. So we must attack the root causes of the inflation in health care. That means promoting the best practices, not simply the most expensive. We should ask why places like the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, the Cleveland Clinic in Ohio, and other institutions can offer the highest quality care at costs well below the national norm. We need to learn from their successes and replicate those best practices across our country. That’s how we can achieve reform that preserves and strengthens what’s best about our health care system, while fixing what is broken.

The plans you are discussing embody my core belief that Americans should have better choices for health insurance, building on the principle that if they like the coverage they have now, they can keep it, while seeing their costs lowered as our reforms take hold. But for those who don’t have such options, I agree that we should create a health insurance exchange — a market where Americans can one-stop shop for a health care plan, compare benefits and prices, and choose the plan that’s best for them, in the same way that Members of Congress and their families can. None of these plans should deny coverage on the basis of a preexisting condition, and all of these plans should include an affordable basic benefit package that includes prevention, and protection against catastrophic costs. I strongly believe that Americans should have the choice of a public health insurance option operating alongside private plans. This will give them a better range of choices, make the health care market more competitive, and keep insurance companies honest.

I understand the Committees are moving towards a principle of shared responsibility — making every American responsible for having health insurance coverage, and asking that employers share in the cost. I share the goal of ending lapses and gaps in coverage that make us less healthy and drive up everyone’s costs, and I am open to your ideas on shared responsibility. But I believe if we are going to make people responsible for owning health insurance, we must make health care affordable. If we do end up with a system where people are responsible for their own insurance, we need to provide a hardship waiver to exempt Americans who cannot afford it. In addition, while I believe that employers have a responsibility to support health insurance for their employees, small businesses face a number of special challenges in affording health benefits and should be exempted.

Health care reform must not add to our deficits over the next 10 years — it must be at least deficit neutral and put America on a path to reducing its deficit over time. To fulfill this promise, I have set aside $635 billion in a health reserve fund as a down payment on reform. This reserve fund includes a number of proposals to cut spending by $309 billion over 10 years –reducing overpayments to Medicare Advantage private insurers; strengthening Medicare and Medicaid payment accuracy by cutting waste, fraud and abuse; improving care for Medicare patients after hospitalizations; and encouraging physicians to form “accountable care organizations” to improve the quality of care for Medicare patients. The reserve fund also includes a proposal to limit the tax rate at which high-income taxpayers can take itemized deductions to 28 percent, which, together with other steps to close loopholes, would raise $326 billion over 10 years.

I am committed to working with the Congress to fully offset the cost of health care reform by reducing Medicare and Medicaid spending by another $200 to $300 billion over the next 10 years, and by enacting appropriate proposals to generate additional revenues. These savings will come not only by adopting new technologies and addressing the vastly different costs of care, but from going after the key drivers of skyrocketing health care costs, including unmanaged chronic diseases, duplicated tests, and unnecessary hospital readmissions.

To identify and achieve additional savings, I am also open to your ideas about giving special consideration to the recommendations of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), a commission created by a Republican Congress. Under this approach, MedPAC’s recommendations on cost reductions would be adopted unless opposed by a joint resolution of the Congress. This is similar to a process that has been used effectively by a commission charged with closing military bases, and could be a valuable tool to help achieve health care reform in a fiscally responsible way.
These are some of the issues I look forward to discussing with you in greater detail in the weeks and months ahead. But this year, we must do more than discuss. We must act. The American people and America’s future demand it.

I know that you have reached out to Republican colleagues, as I have, and that you have worked hard to reach a bipartisan consensus about many of these issues. I remain hopeful that many Republicans will join us in enacting this historic legislation that will lower health care costs for families, businesses, and governments, and improve the lives of millions of Americans. So, I appreciate your efforts, and look forward to working with you so that the Congress can complete health care reform by October.

Sincerely,

BARACK OBAMA

# # #

(emphasis mine)

Governor Mark Sanford (R) Gets Served

Both figuratively and literally, as the South Carolina Supreme Court just voted 5-0 to order the governor to apply for stimulus money, and served him a writ of mandamus, which is basically an order, so if he doesn’t, they can throw his ass in jail.

He had refused to spend the money on education, and the legislature overruled him, but Sanford, continued to maintain that only he had the authority to request the money.

Basically, this is about a Presidential run in 2012, and he is appealing to the ever shrinking Republican Party base.

Malaysia and China Move to End Dollar Trade

The two nations are considering conducting their trade in yuan and ringgit, as opposed to using the US dollar as a medium.

Basically, with both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve shoveling cash out the door into that black hole which is the shadow banking system, people are beginning to wonder if there might be a better vehicle to conduct trade with than the dollar, which they expect to depreciate.

The “Tanned One” Charged with Securities Fraud


Here’s hoping that you get a really ugly cell mate, dude!

The Securities and Exchange Comission has charged the former CEO of Countrywide Mortgage, Angelo Mozilo, with securities fraud for insider trading.

Basically, he, former COO, David Sambol, and former CFO, Eric Sieracki, are accused of misleading investors about how crappy their lending standards were until they dumped their own stock.

This is not a criminal proceeding, but one hopes that it moves to that.

Economics Update

We have good news on the jobs front, with both new and continuing claims claims falling this week.

Continuing claims fell by 15K to 6,740,000, the first time that they have fallen since January 3.

We also have the rather Dickensian named Challenger Gray & Christmas reporting that corporate layoff plans fell in May.

Meanwhile, the consumer economy continues in the doldrums, with MasterCard announcing that consumer spending continues to fall, though not as quickly as earlier in the year, and the retail chain’s monthly sales reports missing expectations, though the 800 pound evil gorilla in the room, Wal Mart, has stopped reporting monthly sales figures.

Mortgage rates are continuing their climb, with the rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage hitting a 6 month high.

On the other side of the pond, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England left their benchmark rates unchanged, which drove the dollar down, because there had been some expectation of a rate cut priced in.

Meanwhile, in energy, Goldman-Sachs predicted higher oil prices later this year, which, along with the employment data, pushed the price of oil up.

Trying Not to be Reelected

David Paterson just vetoed a pension protection bill for police and fire fighters, indicating that the profoundly unpopular governor actually believes that Andrew Cuomo’s statement that he, “has no plans,” to challenge him in the primary actually means something, so he’s heading hard right to have a better position against Giuliani in the general.

“Has no plans,” and he’s decided to piss off the police and fire unions, and go full Neanderthal, just as he did when he was finally strong armed into raising taxes on the wealthiest people in New York.

It’s a great way to lose a primary in New York state, particularly when nature abhors a vacuum, which means that there almost certainly be a mainstream challenger to Paterson if Cuomo sticks to his statement and does not run.

My guess here is that Cuomo is giving the accidental governor enough rope to hang himself here.

Reports that Larry Summers Took Semi-Legal Bribes

Mark Ames notes that it looks like the banks, knowing that he would be in a position to exert significant authority over them after a new administration came in, bought him off ahead of time by investing in start-up companies where he was on the board only because of his expected future political clout.

This has been his history during his entire career, and the revolving door keeps turning.

Geithner Underwater, Will Rent Out New York Home

Timothy Geithner bought his home in Westchester County, New York for $1.650 million 5 years ago, and now cannot sell it for $1.575, so he is looking for a renter, at about $7,500 a month, which figures out to be about 80% of his mortgage and taxes.

Of course, I could be wrong, and it could be that Mr. Geithner is figuring on leaving Washington, DC sooner rather than later, and does not want to sell the house under those circumstances.

Certainly, if I were in his shoes, I might be concerned that my DC sojourn would be peripatetic.

The Worst Person in Brooklyn

Brooklyn Bishop Nicholas DiMarzio, who has threatened to close churches in the districts of state legislature if they vote to extend the statute of limitations on child sexual abuse:

Brooklyn Bishop Nicholas DiMarzio threatened state lawmakers by vowing to close churches in their districts — and blame them for the closures — if they dared support a bill making it easier for people who were sexually assaulted as kids to sue, legislators told The Post.

I guess it’s because that, you know, it might be expensive for the church.

Here’s an idea, how about Not Letting Your Priests Rape Children!

That would save even more money.

One note is that it appears that the good Bishop’s attempts at blackmail backfired, and a number of legislators are seriously looking at supporting the bill now.

Minnesota Gov Pawelenty Not to Run for 3rd Term

What’s going on here is that this will be a bad cycle for incumbent governors, with tough budget choices to make, and so he gives that a miss by doing this, and can focus on a run for President.

Additionally, it minimizes the political damage of his refusal to certify Al Franken’s election as Senator, which he will do in order to shore up his support with the base.

He has made a statement, but note the weasel here, “If the court directs me to sign that certificate, I will.”

The translation here is that if the court does not explicitly order him, he won’t sign until Coleman goes all the way up the chain to the Supreme Court, but if it does, he has no choice.

Banks Oppose Market Transparency

There are proposals out there to require that derivatives be traded in open regulated markets, and banks are cranking up the lobbying machine to kill this. (Also here and here)

The reason is that it will cost them a lot of money:

Potentially billions of dollars in revenue is at stake. An effort earlier this decade to improve transparency in the corporate-bond market ended up cutting bank fees by more than $1 billion in a year, according to some studies.

For CDS and other complex financial instruments, I would put the low end of savings at tens of billions of dollars a year.

How does transparency save costs for the buyers and sellers, and cost the banks money?

Well, if you have an asset nominally worth $100, a bank would list it for sale for their customer at, say $99, and list the price to buyers at $101, which means that the bank collect $2 on each transaction.

In an public market, where these spreads would be known, buyers and sellers pursue the lowest spread, so it would be closer to $99.90 and $100.10 respectively, and that’s money out of their pockets that could be spent on whores and cocaine.

Needless to say, the banks don’t want this, so they are rolling out all sorts of voluntary measures to increase transparency, which would be observed only in the breach once the moves to regulate fade into memory.