Year: 2009

You Don’t Have to be a Sick F%$# to be a Republican…..

But they do have more than their share

Case in point, a Republican legislative aide in the Pennsylvania statehouse who propositioned a teen online, he wanted to have sex while one or both of them were wearing a panda costume, and there are indications that diapers may have been involved too.

It gives an entirely new meaning to Richard M. Nixon’s “Checkers” speech.

When he talks about his wife Pat having, “Respectable Republican cloth coat,” and not a fur coat……

Damn! This Crap Never Dies, Does It?

2 of the significant cancellations of the budget proposed by SecDef Gates were the USAF’s Transformational Satellite (TSAT), and the Army’s Future Combat System (FCS), but like the slasher flick villain, they’re back.

The USAF is now looking for funding of a “technology demonstrator” which would mirror TSAT’s capabilities, with an obvious eye towards reviving the program, and Army Chief of Staff General George Casey is saying that the FCS has not been killed, prime contractor Boeing still touting fictitious milestones being passed, and a senior acquisition officer saying that it would be split into 3 parts.

So, we’ll services coming after this again, and again, even though the gear and tech from the FCS that was supposed to enter service in 2011 has now been delayed.

The Iron Triangle at its finest.

Lithium Hydride Scramjet Shows Promise

Lithium Hydride is a fairly dense and easy to handle way to store hydrogen, which is one of the reasons that it’s used, with Deuterium substituting for Hydrogen, as the fusion fuel supply for thermonuclear warheads.

Well, Claudio Bruno, of the University of Rome, has begun testing the material for use in scramjet engines.

Gaseous, or for that matter cryogenic, hydrogen is bulky and difficult to store, but it also is the material that is best suited to burn quickly enough to work well under supersonic combustion.

One of the techniques used is to use a catalyst, and the heat generated at speed, to crack hydrocarbon fuels, and use the hydrogen generated, or to use a preburner, basically a ramjet inside the scramjet, to preburn the fuel and create a hot reducing atmosphere for further combustion.

LiH would decompose naturally at operating temperatures, and would appear to be a simpler solution.

Economics Update


We’re All Red States Now
(Philly Fed Index, Red is Contraction)

The revised numbers for the first quarter GDP are out now, and it’s an upward revision for once, from a fall of 6.1% to a fall of only 5.7%.

Of course, -5.7% is still pretty ugly, and the fact that the ATA Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.2% in April, and that the Philly Fed State index is not showing expansion in any states, seems to indicate to me that we are still talking about a change in the 2nd derivative, i.e. not getting worst faster, than a rebound.

Still, there was still some good news, with the Consumer Sentiment Index reaching an 8 month high, 68.7, and Japan’s factory output unexpectedly rose last month.

Still, with Euro zone inflation hitting 0% this month, the specter of deflation is very real.

Meanwhile, the less concern about the economy has pushed the dollar down, while oil price increases have pushed the Canadian dollar up by 9.6% in May.

U.S. Unemployment Now as High as Europe

Actually the US unemployment rate is higher relative to Europe than the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) report suggests.

The Europeans have a far more relaxed count for the unemployed, counting, for example, full time students looking for part time work as unemployed, and the US counts active duty military as part of the civilian workforce,, which Europe does not, further lowering the US numbers relative to Europe.

When comparing apples to apples, the EU and US have been much closer in terms of unemployment rate, and right now, our unemployment rate is higher.

Additionally, the consequences of unemployment are far worse in the US with a threadbare social safety net which involves, among other things, things like a loss of healthcare.

Bushie Takes the 5th

When I last wrote about PBGC head Charles Millard, who a large portion of the agency’s trust fund, and put it in the stock market just before the crash, I thought that it was just another case of another incompetent ideologue.

I was wrong. It’s Bush and His Evil Minions style corruption, baby!

The House Education and Labor Committee is now investigating his contacts with the investment banks that actually bought the stock, and generated over $100 million in fees.

So, they called Millard to testify, and he repeatedly invoked the 5th.

Sounds to me like he was throwing business their way in exchange for the possibility of a lucrative job offer.

More People Come Out in Support of Inflation

I have been saying for some time that this is the way out of the housing crisis, because it will devalue the mortgage loans to match real-estate prices returning to sanity.

Well, there are now some noted economic voices saying the same thing:

So say economists including Gregory Mankiw, former White House adviser, and Kenneth Rogoff, who was chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. They argue that a looser rein on inflation would make it easier for debt-strapped consumers and governments to meet their obligations. It might also help the economy by encouraging Americans to spend now rather than later when prices go up.

“I’m advocating 6 percent inflation for at least a couple of years,” says Rogoff, 56, who’s now a professor at Harvard University. “It would ameliorate the debt bomb and help us work through the deleveraging process.”

6% is a 12 year doubling time, and 3 years at 6% would get you an increase in prices of about 19%.

I think that the reason that he’s talking about those numbers is because much above 6%, you start having real concerns about it getting away from you.

Meanwhile, Paul Krugman, while not coming out in defense of some inflation, says that he does not see it as a big deal.

He feels that the levels of debt under these circumstances are justified, and backs it up with historical examples.

So, Just How Were We Better Than Saddam?

It’s far far worse than I imagined.

When I wrote about Bush rape rooms, I cited Scott Horton, who detailed only rape by instrumentality, but the reality is that we are talking full genital rape here, including the rape of a boy:

At least one picture shows an American soldier apparently raping a female prisoner while another is said to show a male translator raping a male detainee.

What’s more the Telegraph‘s source on this is unimpeachable:

Detail of the content emerged from Major General Antonio Taguba, the former army officer who conducted an inquiry into the Abu Ghraib jail in Iraq.

Allegations of rape and abuse were included in his 2004 report but the fact there were photographs was never revealed. He has now confirmed their existence in an interview with the Daily Telegraph.

Maj Gen Taguba, who retired in January 2007, said he supported the President’s decision, adding: “These pictures show torture, abuse, rape and every indecency.

We also know that Barack Obama lied when he talked about this:

Mr Obama seemed to reinforce that view by adding: “I want to emphasise that these photos that were requested in this case are not particularly sensational, especially when compared to the painful images that we remember from Abu Ghraib.”

I don’t think that he could say that you have pictures of a boy and a woman being raped, in additional to the forcible stripping of a woman detainee to humiliate her, any honest description would be almost as inflammatory as the pictures themselves, but saying that they are “no big” will make him less credible the next time something like this comes up.

More Economic Journamalism

Remember when I was talking about economic journamalism on durable goods orders?

Well Bloomberg gets the story right, with U.S. Economy: Durable-Goods Orders Hover Near Lowest Since 1996, but Reuters (U.S. April durable goods orders post biggest gain in 16 months), and CNBC (Durable Goods in Surprise Jump; Jobless Claims Dip), both get it very, very wrong.

Let’s roll the Bloomberg story for what is going on:

Orders rose 1.9 percent in April after a 2.1 percent drop in March that was more than twice as large as previously estimated, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said 6.79 million people are collecting jobless benefits, and another report showed new-home sales were lower than forecast in April.

(emphasis mine)

OK, this looks like a 1.9% bump, which is a significant bump, but Bloomberg covered this as low numbers.

Why is this correct, and Reuters and CNBC wrong?

That phrase, “more than twice as large as previously estimated,” is why it is wrong.

As Reuters notes a few ‘graphs down:

However, March orders were revised sharply lower, falling 2.1 percent from the previously reported 0.8 percent decline.

So, we are comparing initial estimates for April with revised numbers for March.

If you were to compare apples to apples, you would have 1.9%-2.1%-(-0.8%), or 1.9%-2.1%+0.8%, or a growth of 0.6% comparing apples to apples.

In fact, you get a lot of this out of the government statistic machine, and it’s faithfully echoed by the press.

You have a number that is an improvement over the last month’s (revised) numbers, and it’s really good news…..And then, a few weeks later it’s revised down, and the new figures for the next month come out, and they look really good compared to the downwardly revised previous figures.

Rinse, lather, repeat.

Pakistani Supreme Court Rules that Nawaz Sharif Can Hold Office

He had been banned from office by the Supreme Court some months ago, on the basis of the trumped up charges that Musharraf charged him with post coup, but since then, the Musharraf appointed chief justice has been replaced by Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, who had been removed by the general, and whose whose reinstatement was the subject of massive protests, ruled that the charges in question were bogus.

There should be no short term political impact, but it is clear that Sharif is more popular than the current president, Asif Ali Zardari, who is seen as both ineffective and remarkably corrupt even by the standards of Pakistani politics, and it is likely that he would win when an election is held.

Abolish the U.S. Office of Thrift Supervision


There they are, “cutting red tape,” 2 senior OTS officers, and 2 bank lobbyists.

The inspector general has issued a report, and we now know that the OTS approved or directed banks to backdate captital contributions in order to make the institutions that they regulated appear in better shape than they were.

And now these jokers are letting leveraged buyout experts buy into small community banks, despite the best efforts of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve has closed, allowing.

There is talk of regulatory fixes, and one is to prevent banks from forum shopping, so that agencies compete in this way to get more money from fees.

Doing away with the OTS would be a good start.

Auto Industry Update, GM Bankruptcy Imminent Edition, the Sequel

It looks like some of the larger bondholders have blinked, and have agreed to a slightled debt for equity swap.

Even so, GM’s bankruptcy now seems a foregone conclusion.

It’s the Credit Default Swap doing this. There are too many players out there who bought the debt cheap along with an under-priced CDS to hedge the risk, and so have no incentive not to burn the house down.

Still, all this has GM playing the turd in the punchbowl in Europe, where it
made a surprise demand for an additional €300 million payment on the sale of its Opel division, and at this point, the Germans are beginning to suspect that the US Treasury is trying to pull this money from Germany to the US:

German leaders expressed frustration with the United States Treasury, citing inadequate guarantees that European assets would be protected from the likely bankruptcy filing in American courts and that German money would be used only for Opel.

There is also the issue that EU regulators are looking to see if the loan guarantees offered are an illegal state subsidy.

Meanwhile, Ford’s former parts division, Visteon, and Metaldyne have both filed for bankruptcy, and I think that this likely going to get worse, not better.

Economics Update


Initial and Continuing Claims, Courtesy of
Calculated Risk

So, the new unemployment claims numbers are out, and they are still bad, though a bit better, 623,000, down 13,000 from the last week, and the 4-week moving average fell 3K to 626,750.

That being said, the continuing claims were 6,788,000, up 110K, to yet another record, so layoffs may be slowing, but so is hiring.

My take: this is more businesses are running out of people to lay off than it is the economy improving.

On the other side of the pacific, Japanese retail sales rose, but the consensus is that this is a temporary blip, not a trend.

Reinforcing my “dead cat bounce” view is the fact that durable goods orders remain near a 13 year low. (There is also some very bad financial journalism around this story, which I will get to separately)

Meanwhile, in real estate new home sales rose even as prices continued their fall, and if you look at the sales there is a huge portion which are distressed properties, short sales or foreclosures.

It’s why we are seeing more stories about how there are No “move-up” buyers, selling their old house and upgrading.

There is very little equity for such a move currently, and with mortgage rates continuing their upward path, and delinquencies and foreclosures rising sharply, they broke another record in first quarter, I don’t see any signs of a real rebound in the sector.

Meanwhile, I wonder how much the relaxation of the credit crunch involves the rest of our economy. The metrics involving inter-bank lending show signs of a thaw, but US commercial paper fell to its lowest level in 8 years.

This is largely non-bank lending, and it’s absolutely comatose.

Menqhile in currency and energy, the dollar dropped, and the Yen dropped more/a>, on the (not really that) good durable goods numbers and unemployment figures, while oil was up on OPEC’s announcement of no production boosts.

Right Wing Priest Uses Schism to Cover Up Embezzlement

Well, now we know what’s driving at least some of the Schism in the Episcopal Church over the ordination of gays, some of the right wing priests are taking the money and running:

The conservative Colorado Springs pastor who broke away from the Episcopal Church to form a new Anglican congregation in May 2007 now is accused of stealing $291,000 from Grace Church and St. Stephen’s Parish.

When Armstrong left the Episcopal Church, he said the split was over theological differences, such as his opposition to gay marriage and the church’s ordination of openly gay clergy.

But Colorado Episcopal Diocese officials countered that they believed Armstrong, who had been Grace’s pastor for 20 years, had left to escape reckoning for embezzlement uncovered by diocesan officials. The diocese notified police of its suspicions in May 2007.

I think that we’ll find a lot more of this, but I am a bit of a cynic on such things.