H/t FiveThirtyEight.com

That’s why he’s going to be campaigning for Martha Coakley in the US Senate special election this Sunday:

President Barack Obama will campaign Sunday in Massachusetts for the Democratic candidate in a close race to fill the seat held by the late Senator Edward Kennedy.

State Attorney General Martha Coakley is trying to hold off a surge by Republican state Senator Scott Brown in recent opinion polls before the Jan. 19 vote. The campaign, in a state dominated by Democrats, will affect Obama’s ability to move legislation through the Senate and is becoming an early test of his party’s prospects in November’s congressional elections.

Let me be clear, if Coakly loses in what is one of the three bluest states in the nation it is a disaster, and her failure will rest firmly on the head of “no
gutsdrama Obama”.

Barack Obama has, for reasons that appear unclear to me, decided that the way to govern with the largest legislative majorities in something like 30 years, is to campaign against his base, and try to make nice with the
VisigothsRepublicans, who are having none of it.

Fundamentally, the problem is that he campaigned on “change”, and he is remarkably supportive of the status quo, and it’s pissing off Republicans and demoralizing Democrats.

I think that she is going to lose, though my prognostic abilities have been shown to be lacking.

That’s not a good thing, though, off the top of my head, but if you want to look at silver linings there are a few:

• Obama might realize that maybe he was elected to be a Democrat who changes things, and better that he learn it now, as opposed to November when the whole House and 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection.
  • Of course, the “very serious people” in DC will use it as an excuse to tell Obama that he needs to go on a Jihad against the DFH’s^*, and Obama, being Obama, will likely believe the Beltway Boyz.
• Martha Coakley is a deeply and profoundly bad person (though better than any Republican who might be a Senator because her policy won’t quite be flat out primeval). She has always been an amazingly overzealous prosecutor, who will do her best to continue to overcrowd prisons as a legislator.
  • Just look at her prosecution of Louise Woodward, Ray and Shirley Souza, and her actions with regard to the Amirault case, where prosecutors basically coerced testimony out of children in yet another of those “false memory” cases of counselor malpractice.
• Something gets passed through reconciliation, which cuts Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Blanch Lincoln out of the loop.
• Of course, Barack Obama will try to bring Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Blanch Lincoln back into the process, so it may not turn out well either.

I hope I’m wrong, but I fear that I am right about the election.

^*Dirty F%$#ing Hippies.