Month: January 2010

Quote of the Day

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Courtesy of Stephen Colbert, but Colbert the person, not the character that he plays on his show.

He was at a reunion of Second City comedians, and they had a panel on comedy and politics:

As for Glenn Beck, the panel discussed the challenge of maintaining a separation between reality and satire when so many TV pundits are simply, premeditatedly over-the-top.

“I said, ‘Let’s start doing some Glenn Beck stuff but in praise of Glenn Beck,'” said Colbert. “But every time we do one, he will have done something dumber. He raised the stupid bar and now it’s nearly inapproachable.”

(emphasis mine)

Another Report on How We are Destroying Ourselves-

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It appears that methane is leaking from the arctic permafrost at rapidly accelerating rates, and methane is a significant contributor to the greenhouse effect.

Of course, it also includes one of my pet peeves:

The discovery follows a string of reports from the region in recent years that previously frozen boggy soils are melting and releasing methane in greater quantities. Such Arctic soils currently lock away billions of tonnes of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, leading some scientists to describe melting permafrost as a ticking time bomb that could overwhelm efforts to tackle climate change.

(emphasis mine)

Frequently, you have people saying that methane is 20 times more effective at trapping greenhouse gasses than CO2, and while technically true, it leaves out an important fact, that methane’s persistence is far less than that of CO2.

Methane, CH4, has a molecular weight of 16, far less than that of the atmosphere, roughly 30, so it tends to migrate towards the upper atmosphere, where ultra-violet light breaks it down.

Here is the equation:

CH4 + 2O2 ⇒ CO2 +2H2O

Methane’s persistence is far less than CO2, on the order of a 1-2 decades, as opposed to the centuries for a CO2 molecule, which needs to go through the Byzantinely complex biochemistry that is photosynthesis.

So, basically, methane is something on the order of 10% worse, a short period in which that carbon atom part of a methane molecule, followed by a longer period in which it is CO2.

Global warming is real, and methane is an issue, though it is one roughly the same as CO2. There really isn’t a need to go all “20 times” (2nd link) do describe the issue. It is imprecise and disingenuous.

Our planet is going to hell in a hand-basket in either case.

Spot the Cancer Victim

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High heels and Bathing Suits? WTF?*

Actually, it’s a trick question, neither of the women have had cancer, they were just two contestants on the British reality show Make Me a Supermodel.

Guess which one the judges preferred?

Yes, they preferred the one on the right, Marianne Berglund, while the viewers preferred the 5’11” 154 pound Jen Hunter, who won the show, but then could only find employment with a “plus size” model agency.

As an FYI, their relative body mass indices (BMI) were 16.5, well into emaciated, and 21.5, slightly below the 21.75 mid point of the 18.5-24.9 normal index.

It should be noted that during the show, Hunter was rididuled by the judges for her being “too fat:

During its five-week run, Make Me a Supermodel provoked fury from health experts after Ms Hunter, a size 12, was repeatedly attacked, and reduced to tears, by judges who accused her of being too fat. But the last laugh belonged to the British public, who voted in their tens of thousands for her to be their female winner.

Jen hunter nails it when she says, “People need to realise that to be beautiful doesn’t mean you have to be the size of a 13-year-old boy.”

The problem is that for many years, a lot of designers have seen “13-year old boys” as their aesthetic ideals, and it permeates the media.

One final note, send the woman on the right a cheesecake.

*But that’s another rant.

JAGM Video Pr0n

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Intended as a replacement for the Hellfire, Maverick, and TOW missiles.

I’m still a bit dubious of replacing the Maverick with the missile, seeing as how the warhead for the Maverick is heavier than the whole JAGM, and so I cannot see how the JAGM won’t be at a disadvantage against fortifications and military naval vessels (i.e. bigger than drug-runner’s speed boats).

10%?

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That is the current charge-off rate for Capital One US Credit Cards.

This means that today, with no sign of unemployment abating, over 10% of their debt portfolio is deemed to be uncollectable:

Capital One Financial Corp’s U.S. credit-card charge-offs rose to double digits in December, showing consumers became increasingly stressed in the holiday shopping month.

In a regulatory filing on Friday, Capital One said the annualized net charge-off rate — debts the company believes it will never collect — for U.S. credit cards rose to 10.14 percent in December from 9.60 percent in November.

I used to think that the banks couldn’t lose money when they paid 3% on savings accounts and got 18% on credit cards, but now that it’s 1½% and 28%, it looks like they are going under.

To quote The Hunt for Red October, “You arrogant ass. You’ve killed us! “

Somali Pirates Create Better Fishing

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Not surprising.

It appears that there is upside to Somali piracy. The pirates have scared off the people plundering the fishing grounds off of the Somolian coast:

MALINDI, Kenya–Kenyan fisherman are perhaps the only people in the world who have reason to be grateful to Somali pirates – they keep away illegal fishing boats.

In past years, illegal commercial trawlers parked off Somalia’s coast and scooped up the ocean’s contents. Now, fishermen on the northern coast of neighboring Kenya say, the trawlers are not coming because of pirates.

“There is a lot of fish now, there is plenty of fish. There is more fish than people can actually use because the international fishermen have been scared away by the pirates,” said Athman Seif, the director of the Malindi Marine Association.

One of the reasons for the popularity of the Somali pirates in Somalia is because they are perceived as going after foreign poachers.

If the external powers started policing the 200 mile limit for Somalia, or better yet, commissioned and supported a Somali Coast Guard, and pursued the people who are strip-mining their coastal waters, we might find some real improvement in the piracy problem.

Good Point

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When we look at Pat Robertson, and his delusional bits of wing-nut spew, it is important to note that he is, and remains a very significant figure in American politics:

You can sneer all you want at Pat Robertson. You can condemn him all you want. And I’ll join right in. He deserves everything you care to say about him, and much, much more. He is a seriously disturbed man.

But you dismiss and ignore him at your peril. Remember: this man used to call up the f@#&ing president of the United States. And he got through. And the president listened to him.

You ever had that kind of access to power? Got it now? Thought not. Me, neither. You got his hundreds of millions of dollars? Got millions of fans giving you hard-earned- bucks? Nope, I don’t have them either.

(emphasis original, @#& mine)

The fact that people do not take him seriously, even though he could, for many years, pick up the phone and in a few minutes have a conversation, or arrange a meeting, with the President United States is a not trivial thing.

People who should not be allowed to use a butter knife are achieved positions of outsize influence in the United States, and more often than not, these days at least, they speak to, and for, Republicans.

They Who Must Not Be Named

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Let us add Washington Wizards star Gilbert Arenas, as well as any other moron who decides that celebrity justifies their carrying a firearm in violation of the local laws:

Washington Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas, who was suspended from professional basketball, pleaded guilty to a felony count of carrying a handgun without a license.

Arenas, 28, entered the plea today before District of Columbia Superior Court Judge Robert Morin in Washington. Under a plea agreement, Arenas admitted violating a District of Columbia law on carrying an unlicensed handgun.

Under the agreement, he likely will receive a sentence much lighter than the five years he might otherwise face. The agreement calls for prosecutors to recommend a sentence of six months when Arenas is sentenced on March 26.

When the prosecution asks for 6 months, can they please also ask for the sentence to be served at the same time as the NBA season?

Well, This Has Fail Written All Over It

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It appears that Yemen, under US pressure is looking to arrest Anwar al Awlaki, the Imam tied to both the Fort Hood shooter and the Underoos bomber.

The problem here is that, absent any information that he’s actually involved with al Qaeda, he’s just someone who speaks in support of them.

That makes him a bad person, but we are in the process of making him a martyr, and the counter-terrorism forces will use his sermons, convincing Muslims even more thoroughly that this is a war on Islam.

Really, I think that anyone involved in counter-terrorism should read Wasp by Eric Frank Russell, or at least the first chapter:

The title of Wasp comes from the idea that the main character’s actions and central purpose mimic that particular insect; just as something as small as a wasp can terrorize a much larger creature in control of a car to the point of causing a crash and killing the occupants, so the defeat of an enemy may be wrought via psychological and guerrilla warfare by a small, but deadly, protagonist in their midst.

The point is, pedants arguing about anaphylaxis notwithstanding, is that the wasp cannot kill us, it can only induce us to kill ourselves.

Not Enough Bullets: Shareholders Got a Gun Edition

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JPMorgan Allots $378,600 Per Investment Bank Worker:

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second- largest U.S. bank, set aside $9.3 billion for compensation and benefits for investment-bank employees in 2009, enough to pay each worker in that unit $378,600.

The reserve is 33 percent of the investment bank’s revenue for the year, compared with 62 percent in 2008, New York-based JPMorgan said today on its Web site. That’s the lowest proportion allocated for pay since JPMorgan merged with Bank One Corp. in 2004.

You know, if shareholders had any real power to direct a company, the idea that 33% of revenue go to bonuses, much less 62%, would be a thing of the pass.

It is currently illegal for shareholders to vote on compensation plans. How about we change the law and make it legal.

Barack Obama is Scared

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That’s why he’s going to be campaigning for Martha Coakley in the US Senate special election this Sunday:

President Barack Obama will campaign Sunday in Massachusetts for the Democratic candidate in a close race to fill the seat held by the late Senator Edward Kennedy.

State Attorney General Martha Coakley is trying to hold off a surge by Republican state Senator Scott Brown in recent opinion polls before the Jan. 19 vote. The campaign, in a state dominated by Democrats, will affect Obama’s ability to move legislation through the Senate and is becoming an early test of his party’s prospects in November’s congressional elections.

Let me be clear, if Coakly loses in what is one of the three bluest states in the nation it is a disaster, and her failure will rest firmly on the head of “no
gutsdrama Obama”.

Barack Obama has, for reasons that appear unclear to me, decided that the way to govern with the largest legislative majorities in something like 30 years, is to campaign against his base, and try to make nice with the
VisigothsRepublicans, who are having none of it.

Fundamentally, the problem is that he campaigned on “change”, and he is remarkably supportive of the status quo, and it’s pissing off Republicans and demoralizing Democrats.

I think that she is going to lose, though my prognostic abilities have been shown to be lacking.

That’s not a good thing, though, off the top of my head, but if you want to look at silver linings there are a few:

  • Obama might realize that maybe he was elected to be a Democrat who changes things, and better that he learn it now, as opposed to November when the whole House and 1/3 of the Senate is up for reelection.
    • Of course, the “very serious people” in DC will use it as an excuse to tell Obama that he needs to go on a Jihad against the DFH’s*, and Obama, being Obama, will likely believe the Beltway Boyz.
  • Martha Coakley is a deeply and profoundly bad person (though better than any Republican who might be a Senator because her policy won’t quite be flat out primeval). She has always been an amazingly overzealous prosecutor, who will do her best to continue to overcrowd prisons as a legislator.
    • Just look at her prosecution of Louise Woodward, Ray and Shirley Souza, and her actions with regard to the Amirault case, where prosecutors basically coerced testimony out of children in yet another of those “false memory” cases of counselor malpractice.
  • Something gets passed through reconciliation, which cuts Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Blanch Lincoln out of the loop.
    • Of course, Barack Obama will try to bring Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Blanch Lincoln back into the process, so it may not turn out well either.

I hope I’m wrong, but I fear that I am right about the election.

*Dirty F%$#ing Hippies.

Economics Update

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Click for full size

Another Transportation Indicator of Non-Recovery

The Federal Reserve has released its Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data, and it shows a 0.6% increase in December, though, as Dean Baker notes, it would have fallen but for increased electricity and gas consumption from the weather.

This is kind of in line with the LA/Long Beach port traffic data for December, the last 3 months of the year were down -9.2% year over year, though they were up +2.9% Y0Y in December.

As the associated graph pr0n shows, there is a big seasonal variation, so only YoY is the only meaningful data.

Still, the Empire State Fed Index is at 15.9, with numbers above zero indicating expansion, and Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment rose to 72.8, though this was less than the forecast of 74.

Inflation is mooted, CPI rising by only 0.1% in December, and the figure, at least the initial inflation number, for the year was 2.7% inflation in 2009, largely on the fact that energy and other commodity prices are much higher, +50% on a gallon of gas, for example.

Ex-energy, we are still looking at deflation.

In real estate, once again, New York City is not doing, well, which means that no one is doing well, with properties across the 5 boroughs rising by only 0.12%, $1,200 on a million dollar property for the mathematically disinclined, and in Manhattan, rents fell 9.4%.

Finally, we had warm weather pushing oil down again, and the dollar rose.