Month: January 2010

An Interesting Analysis of Obama and Geithner

Mark Ames, of the ExileD, has a piece on Alternet which provides some very interesting theories about the President and the Treasury Secretary.

Generally, I consider this analysis to be of little use, though it can be interesting, and I think that this applies to this analysis.

His thesis is that Obama and Geithner will avoid conflict, even when avoiding conflict is an immoral thing to do.

In the case of Geithner, Ames uses his actions in the case of the racist Dartmouth review:

The Review lambasted what it called Dartmouth’s liberal bias and its minority admission policies, riling many students. During gatherings in which some students said D’Souza should be attacked, Geithner calmed them down, proposing that they start an alternative publication, says Rudelson, the former roommate. Geithner kept his distance from the new publication, called the Harbinger, occasionally taking photos for it.

In the case of Obama, it’s a conflict over affirmative action at the law review:

Presiding over an assembly of 60 mostly white editors in a law school classroom, Obama listened to impassioned pleas and pressed conservatives to explain their reasoning and liberals to sharpen their thinking. But he never spoke about his own point of view or mentioned that he believed he had benefited from affirmative action. “If anybody had walked by, they would have assumed he was a professor,” said Thomas J. Perrelli, a classmate and former counsel to Attorney General Janet Reno. “He was leading the discussion but he wasn’t trying to impose his own perspective on it. He was much more mediating.”

Obama was so evenhanded and solicitous in his interactions that fellow students would do impressions of his Socratic chin-stroking approach to everything, even seeking a consensus on popcorn preferences at the movies. “Do you want salt on your popcorn?” one classmate, Nancy L. McCullough, recalled, mimicking his sensitive bass voice. “Do you even want popcorn?”

So Ames thesis is that these are people who are fundamentally unwilling to participate in a confrontation, and instead will go through back-flips to avoid it.

It may be true.

It may be that Obama and Geithner actually believe in the rather right wing ideas that they have put forward in terms of financial reform and healthcare.

I don’t know, you don’t know, Mark Ames doesn’t know.

And at the end of the day, it does not matter unless you could use this information to make them do the right thing.

The question, “Why are they governing like this?” is the wrong question.

The right question is, “What levers and tolls can be used to get them to do the right thing?”

Still, it’s a good read. Ames both provocative and eminently readable.

Not Enough Money

New York Governor David Paterson says that he has $3 million in cash on hand for his reelection bid.

When I say, “not enough money,” I don’t mean that that $3 million dollars at this point in the election cycle is not impressive, and sufficient for a state wide election in New York.

Under most circumstances, this would be an impressive haul, but the problem is that there isn’t enough money in the world for him to get reelected.

If Andrew Cuomo runs against him in the primary, he loses the primary.

If Andrew Cuomo doesn’t run against him in the primary, he loses the general election, whether his opponent is Rick Lazio, Rudy Giuliani, indicted former state Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, or Biff the Wonder Dog,* he loses the election.

The electorate find him incompetent, ineffectual, and they don’t like him personally, and it’s not going to change in the next 11 months.

*A virtual kewpie doll to whoever gets the geek reference toward said dog.
OK, if the Republicans nominate Sarah Palin to run against him, I give him a 60% chance of winning, but that dog will kick his ass.

Economics Update

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Unemployment, SA vs NSA, h/t Brad Delong

Well, it’s Thursday, and initial unemployment claims rose for the 2nd straight week, once again worse than forecast.

What might be more significant is the significant divergence between seasonally and non-seasonably adjusted numbers, because the NSA unemployment number was 800,000 initial claims. (see graph pr0n)

The 4 week moving average continued to fall though, down 9,000 to 440,750 and the continuing claims number fell by 211 thousand to 4.596 million, though it should be noted that all these numbers are seasonally adjusted, and it appears that the adjustments are getting a big hinky.

In any case, the DoL’s numbers are here.

Retail sales also were below forecast, with the December number showing a -0.3% drop, missing analysts expectations of +0.5%.

We do have some good news though, with business inventories rising in November; it is the 2nd straight month, and the 2nd month-to-month increase in 15 months.

In real estate, foreclosures rose 14% in December, and total defaults for 2009 hit a record, 2,824,674, up 21% from 2008, and more than double the number for 2007.

In central bank land, Chilean central bank kept it’s rate at 0.5%, as the economy in the Latin American nation remains mired in recession and deflation.

In the US, the bad financial numbers had Treasurys rising as investors looked for safety.

In energy, warmer weather continued to push oil prices down, while in currency, the dollar was essentially unchanged.

Nibble on Iris Robinson’s Chocolate Balls


Seriously, I have to invoke South Park!

Remember a few days back, when I referenced Americablog’s story about how a right-wing Irish anti-gay bigot was herself sleeping with a 19 year old boy?

It’s legal, but real hypocrisy, and it just got worse:

Meanwhile, it emerged this weekend that Iris Robinson also had an affair with 19-year-old Kirk McCambley’s father, a butcher who died from cancer. She had another affair with a fellow DUP member in the 1980s which was witnessed by the security forces.

(emphasis mine)

It appears that the founder of the DUP, and fellow bigot, Rev. Ian Paisley is in full “going postal” mode over this.

Well, the story gets even weirder, because bloggers with way too much free time on their hands have uncovered her recipe for “chocolate balls, and this, in turn has uncovered the coverage of her recipe at the time in the Belfast Telegraph, which is just full of double entendre:

Iris Robinson’s chocolate balls to melt our hearts

Wednesday, 12 November 2008

Food lovers across Northern Ireland are being given the chance to nibble on Iris Robinson’s chocolate balls, included in a new charity cookbook.

……………

(emphasis mine)

No, this is not The Onion.

Reality is very odd sometimes.

H/t AMERICAblog News

Deep Thought

After reading a bunch of threads about Obama federalizing the National Guard (it’s somehow connected to the FEMA camps), giving Interpol absolute and unquestionable power on American soils, and the fact that Obama’s name is really “Steve,” I have discovered what people do when they’re too old to masturbate.

And I have made a vow to exercise and eat my vegetables so that it never happens to me.

— Oggie at the Shortskoolbus BBS

Well, that explains my liberalism, and my strong right hand.

Schwarzenegger’s Latest Corrupt Disaster

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Forget it Jake, it’s Chinatown.

In addition to the fiscal meltdown going on in California, Governor “Ahnuld” has been talking up a water shortage that largely does not exist so that his billionaire friends can make a profit from a manufactured crisis:

We’ve been lied to for years now about the severity of California’s water shortage. The media and state officials have been ringing the alarm, warning that the state was in the grips of the quite possibly the “worst California drought in modern history,” when in fact the state nearly pulled in its average rainfall in 2009. The fearmongering is about to go into overdrive, as powerful interests start whipping up fears of drought to push through a $11 billion bond measure on the upcoming November elections, setting up the Golden State for a corporate water grab.

One of the big boosters promoting the drought scare is Gov. Schwarzenegger, who declared a state of emergency in early 2009, and promised to reduce water deliveries across the state by a whopping 80 percent.

Basically, 80% of water consumption in California is by agriculture, and this water is largely controlled by corporate farm cartels, and these get supplied water from the government at below cost prices, and frequently sell this resell water to the taxpayers at a significant markup.

Making farmers pay something approaching the real cost of supplying the water would solve this problem, because much of the shortage has been driven by corporate farms that have turned to water intensive crops, because they believe that they have the political pull to continue their back-door subsidy.

George Soros Speaks for the Powerless

In this case, he is speaking for the Roma (Gypsies) because no one else will:

Continued discrimination against Roma in Europe not only violates human dignity, but is a major social problem crippling the development of eastern European countries with large Roma populations. Spain, which has been more successful in dealing with its Roma problem than other countries, can take the lead this month as it assumes the European Union presidency.

Good for him.

Signs of the Apocalypse

When “sensible centrist”, by which I mean that he some of his time trying to hew to the Washington, DC pundit consensus, Kevin Drum starts sounding like Leon Trotsky, something is amiss:

Like anyone, I’m pleased when I find someone to confirm my prejudices. And this is definitely one of them. Growth in a modern mixed economy is fundamentally based on consumer spending, and middle class consumers can increase their spending in only three ways: (1) real wage growth, (2) borrowing, or (3) drawing down savings. Only the first is sustainable. So if we want the American economy to grow consistently over long periods, we have to focus our economic machinery on median wage growth. We’ve done it before, we can do it again if we’re smart, and the result would be good for everyone: the rich would get richer, the middle class would get richer, and the poor would get less poor. The alternative is booms, busts, and continued social erosion. So let’s be smart, OK?

(emphasis mine)

He’s right, but the fact that he’s bucking the “Beltway Boyz” on this is telling.

Working for Mother Jones is good for Mr. Drum.

Iceland Considering Dropping Icesave Bill

It looks like they are on their way to losing the referendum, so the Icelandic government is looking at withdrawing the bill and renegotiating terms with the British and Dutch.

There are only 320 thousand people on the island, and the legislators have a pretty good idea on how the voters feel, because they know, and have talked with, a lot of them.

Fundamentally, the voters are showing a level of courage that the politicians are not, and refusing to be blackmailed.

The Senator from the State of Oil Wants to Overturn EPA Regs on CO2

It appears that Lisa Murkowski is trying to overturn the EPA’s notice of proposed rule making on carbon emissions:

Sen. Lisa Murkowski on Tuesday left open the possibility that she would seek a vote next week on stopping the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from going forward with regulations to limit greenhouse-gas emissions.

“I do not believe and I don’t believe that most of my colleagues in the Senate believe that the EPA is the entity that is the best suited to develop climate-change policy for this country,” Ms. Murkowski (R., Alaska) told reporters. “I’m trying to get a time-out. I’m trying to allow the legislative process to proceed. I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to have a vote that will allow for that discussion.”

You know, somehow I think that the folks who don’t come from oil (and coal) producing states might be a wee bit receptive, and there’s also the whole veto thing to deal with.

Bush-Cheney Were Even Crazier Than We Imagined

During the Russian-Georgian war in 2008, Bush and His Evil Minions considered military strikes against Russia:

As Russian tanks rumbled into Georgia in 2008, a post-Cold War turning point was at hand.

George W. Bush’s national security team considered launching air strikes to halt the invasion. …………

…………

Thus we learn that “several senior White House staffers” urged “at least some consideration of limited military options,” such as bombing the mountain tunnel that served as Russia’s main supply line.

What part of the phrase, “Russia has around 10,000 nuclear warheads in its arsenal,” didn’t these guys get?

Great googly moogly!

Heard on the Innerwebs

H/t Jollyreaper at at the by-invitation-only Stellar Parthenon BBS.

The economy is so bad that:

  • I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
  • I ordered a burger at McDonald’s and the kid behind the counter asked, “Can you afford fries with that?”
  • CEO’s are now playing miniature golf.
  • If the bank returns your check marked “Insufficient Funds,” you call them and ask if they meant you or them.
  • Hot Wheels and Matchbox stocks are trading higher than GM.
  • McDonald’s is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
  • Parents in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and learned their children’s names.
  • A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico .
  • Dick Cheney took his stockbroker hunting.
  • Motel Six won’t leave the light on anymore.
  • The Mafia is laying off judges.
  • Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen..
  • Congress says they are looking into this Bernard Madoff scandal. Oh Great!! The guy who made $50 Billion disappear is being investigated by the people who made $1.5 Trillion disappear!

And, finally…

  • I was so depressed last night thinking about the economy, wars, jobs, my savings, Social Security, retirement funds, etc., I called the Suicide Lifeline. I got a call center in Pakistan, and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited, and asked if I could drive a truck.

Pat Robertson is a Pathetic Excuse for a Human Being


What a sorry excuse for a human being

He can always be counted on to say something hurtful and stupid, and this time, it’s the earthquake in Haiti.

He’s saying that the Haitians made a pact with the devil to drive out the French, and so they are cursed, which is why their country is poor, wracked with violence and instability, and struck by natural disasters.

What he is really saying, and I need to credit Juan Cole for this insight is that the Blacks of Haiti, much like the Blacks of New Orleans that he also attacked, are defying god because they are revolting against God’s will by refusing to be slaves.

It’s the Curse of Ham, a and comes from the story of Noah in Beresheit (Genesis) and was used by evil men who took up the role of clergy to justify slavery and the slave trade in pre Civil War days, because one of Ham’s sons Canaan, was cursed to be a slave.

It’s clear that in his heart of hearts Robertson believes this story: He thinks that black people in general are cursed because they have rejected the role that God has given them, that of a slave.

A transcript of what he says: “

And you know Christy, something happened a long time ago in Haiti and people might not want to talk about it. They were under the heel of the French, uh you know Napoleon the third and whatever. [Actually, you moron, it was Napoleon the first] And they got together and swore a pact to the devil. [No, local priests who practiced african religions issued a blessing] They said we will serve you if you’ll get us free from the French. True Story, and so the Devil said OK it’s a deal. And they kicked the French out. You know, the Haitians revolted and got themselves free. But ever since they’ve been cursed by one thing after the other desperately poor. That island is Hispaniola is one island. It’s cut down the middle. On one side is Haiti on the other side is the Dominican republic. Dominican Republic is prosperous, healthy, full of resorts, etc.. Haiti is in desperate poverty. Same island.

(H/t Username4242 at Daily Kos for the transcript)

He also studiously ignores the history there, where both the US and France conspired to keep their respective boots on their neck, starting with Thomas Jefferson, because as a slave holder, he was terrified at the prospect of a successful slave revolt.

To quote Christopher Hitchens, as much as it pains me, “If you gave him an enema you could bury him in a matchbox.”

Economics Update

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H/t Calculated Risk

The Federal Reserve has released its “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions”, better known as the “Beige Book”, and there has been a small improvement.

I’m not sure where the improvement is, since transportation indices continue to disappoint, with the American Association of Railroads’ report on carload traffic showing the lowest level since 1988, and if goods aren’t moving, then people aren’t buying.

Meanwhile the trend in mortgages, with refinancing increasing and mortgages for purchases falling, continued this week.

Overseas, the GDPs of Britain and Germany both suffered the largest drop since before the 2nd World War, -4.8% and -5.0% respectively, while in Japan, machinery orders fell sharply in November.

In the world of US government finance, the US budget deficit doubled year over year in December, which probably had something to do with bond prices being mixed, with the 10-year bond falling slightly, and the 30-year bond rising slightly. (Yields move in the opposite direction of prices)

In energy, oil fell below $80/bbl, on reports of increasing US fuel inventories.

In currency, the dollar was mixed, down slightly versus the Pound and Euro, but up slightly versus the Yen.