Date	5/2	5/3	5/4
Arlen Specter	48%	49%	46%
Joe Sestak	40%	40%	42%
Undecided	12%	11%	12%

The latest tracking polls have the Arlen Specter Joe Sestak primary race too close to call.

If you use the rule of thumb that undecideds break against the incumbent by 2:1, Specter still appears to have the advantage, but it is a lot closer than it was a last, when Specter had a 20+% lead, 53%-32%.

I would be surprised if Specter wins by more than 3% when the primary is held in 2 weeks.

Note that the polls here describe Specter’s popularity among Democrats, and he is severely damaged goods, so the general, against the antediluvian Pat Toomey, he will have a very tough road to hoe.

Basically, he switched parties because he wants to stay a senator, and everyone knows it, and it’s unseemly, and no one trusts him, though the Senate Incumbent Protection Program Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) is spending heavily on advertisements in his behalf.

This is yet another reason why I implore my readers not to give to the DSCC the DCCC, or the DNC (Post Dean): they are first and foremost an incumbent protection program.