Month: May 2010

Economics Update

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This is not an expanding home market
H/t Calculated Risk

Well, so much for green shoots, it’s jobless Thursday, and new claims rose by 25K this week to 471,000, with the 4 week moving average rising by 3K to 453,500, though the continuing claims number fell by 40K to 4,630,000.

It should be noted that the continuing claims number does not count those on emergency UI, like yours truly.

Additionally, it should be noted that the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators posted its 1st drop since March 2009. It should be noted that this is a volatile metric, and a folks who know economics generally want at least 3 months up or down before they declare a trend.

Additionally, real estate is looking dicey.

We have, “One in 7 US homeowners late paying or in foreclosure,” actually 14.01%, in the 1st quarter of the year, with 10% of home owners late 90+ days, and the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index shows continued contraction in April, though this indicator for future commercial construction is did improve in comparison to March.

Additionally, mortgage purchase applications fell to a 13 year low, even as low rates kick-started the demand for refinancing.

Note that this is despite near record low mortgage rates.

We are also seeing continuing erosion in the prices of commercial property.

On the plus side, the Philadelphia Bank of the Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Activity Index rose in May, and Japan’s economy grew faster than expected.

On the inflation side, the CPI fell by 0.1% in April, and the core rate, which excludes food and energy, has risen .9% over the past 12 months, which is actually worrying, as it indicates a risk of a deflationary spiral/lost decade.

Cloture Successful on Financial Reform

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Cantwell of Washington and Feingold of Wisconsin continued to vote against cloture, but Republicans Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine, and as well as Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who voted against cloture yesterday, voted for cloture, and with Harry Reid switching his vote, it means that the debate has been ended on the bill, and it can proceed to a vote.

It’s better than the status quo, but still crappy, which is what Barack Obama would call “post partisan,” I guess.

11 Seconds?

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The New York Times has an article about high frequency traders, and how they handled the Flash Crash.

It appears that they might have made it worse, because a lot of them just sold everything and shut down their computers when the market drop started.

That’s not a big deal, that’s what happens when you are in the middle of a panic, even one that only lasts about 15 minutes.

What shocks me is this:

These are short-term bets. Very short. The founder of Tradebot, in Kansas City, Mo., told students in 2008 that his firm typically held stocks for 11 seconds. Tradebot, one of the biggest high-frequency traders around, had not had a losing day in four years, he said.

(emphasis mine)

I don’t know what is more disturbing, the fact that these guys are buying and selling stocks 5½ times a minute, or the fact that they always make money.

Either they are front-running, they have access to inside information, or they are a Ponzi scheme, just like Bernie Madoff, and my guess is that it’s the former. High frequency trading makes its money by seeing large trades, and then using shortcuts to buy before the buy, or sell before the sale.

I thought that this was illegal, and if it is not, then it should be.

Some speculation is unavoidable in any system where you have open investment, but there have to be limits.

H/t The Big Picture, who believes that the claim is “bullsh%$”.

First, You Say Something Stupid, Then You Lie About It, but It’s On Video

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There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission.*

No, not Blumenthal, he fessed up in the back-handed way that pols do.

I mean Sue Lowden, who is a Republican running for US Senate against Harry Reid in Nevada.

First, she suggests that people should barter chickens for medical care, and does not have the good sense to say she meant, “Bargain,” and now she is denying that she ever said this.

The problem is that she has been caught on video repeatedly making just such a statement, so let’s roll tape, specifically the inestimable Rachel Maddow.

The first rule is that when you are in a hole, stop digging.

The former anchor woman turned politico brings to mind the immortal Don Henley lyric, “We got the bubble-headed-bleach-blond who Comes on at five, She can tell you ’bout the plane crash with a gleam In her eye.”

In any case, she may be Harry Reid’s electoral salvation.

*Virtual Kewpie doll for whoever picks the reference for the caption.

Wikileaks Founder Has Passport Confiscated in Australia

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Julian Assange had his passport confiscated briefly when he visited Australia, and Australian authorities told him that it would be canceled shortly because it was “worn”:

The Australian founder of the whistleblower website Wikileaks had his passport confiscated by police when he arrived in Melbourne last week.

Julian Assange, who does not have an official home base and travels every six weeks, told the Australian current affairs program Dateline that immigration officials had said his passport was going to be cancelled because it was looking worn.

However he then received a letter from the Australian Communication Minister Steven Conroy’s office stating that the recent disclosure on Wikileaks of a blacklist of websites the Australian government is preparing to ban had been referred to the Australian Federal Police (AFP).

So, apparently in Australia, letting people know that the authorities are censoring is grounds for official harassment.

Who do they Australians think that they are? The Obama White House?

Looks Like the New York Times Did Not Do Their Homework

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The McMahon Campaign’s Statement, since scrubbed, that they were the source of the story

And neither did I when I commented the Times story on Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s statement that he had served in Vietnam, when he actually went through multiple deferments and a stint in the reserves to stay out of the war.

It appears that the paper, and me indirectly, swallowed a piece of opposition research from a political opponent without further checking the story.

Well, the New York Times posted a short clip of his speech where he clearly said that he served in Vietnam.

What they didn’t post was the whole speech, where he leads off with a statement that makes it clear that he is claiming that he simply served during that era, not making a claim of serving in the ‘Nam.

Hell, even Fox News’ Neil Cavuto says that the New York Times did a hack job:

Blumenthal didn’t. As far as I can tell, he quite often made a point of saying he didn’t do the heavy lifting in service, just that he appreciated his Marine Reserves service and really appreciated those who did far more in service. He almost always explained the difference, and almost always cited his gratitude.

What’s more, see the pic, with Republican Senate Linda McMahon’s campaign claiming that the Times swallowed their research lock, stock, and barrel, which falls under the, “What the f%$# were they thinking when they admitted that?” category.

Also, people are not talking with the Connecticut press, and it appears that Blumenthal was generally (an important modifier) clear about his status.

I still think that Blumenthal is dead meat because of this, and that the Dems should nominate someone else (who?) on primary day, though, hopefully, so is Linda McMahon, because they fingered themselves over this, and this is an opening for her Republican primary opponent, Rob Simmons, particularly since there are also credible allegations that she warned a drug (steroid) dealing doctor about a federal investigation.

This will be a crazy race.

Cloture Fails on financial Reform

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The vote was 57-42 against cloture, with Democrats Maria Cantwell of Washington and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin voting against cloture,* and Republicans Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, both of Maine, voted for cloture, with Specter not yet back in the Senate.

Cantwell and Feingold are right here: They have been refused a vote on a number of important amendments and other issues, most notably:

  • Allowing states to enforce their own usury laws, which means that credit card consumers would no longer have their interest rates driven by the laws of South Dakota and Delaware.
  • Putting the “Volcker Rule” into statute, forbidding banks from engaging in proprietary trading.
  • A restoration of the Glass Steagall separation between commercial and investment banking.
  • There are requirement that derivatives trade through public exchanges with public price discover is toothless.

It’s nice that some progressives have shown that they are willing to show teeth.

With Republicans coming to realize just how loathed Wall Street is, and realizing that Blanche Lincoln’s reelection driven decision to get rough on the banks has triggered a dynamic which makes the bill more extreme as time goes on, as opposed to the usual process of bills getting emasculated in the Senate.

Every day that goes by, it gets for any Republican and corporatist Democrat who is standing for reelection this year finds it harder and harder do do Wall Street’s bidding.

I think that after a few more days of delay, they’ll end up finding a way to break up the big banks.

*Harry Reid voted against cloture too, but that is so he can offer a motion to reconsider, allowing for revote.

Dodd Drops Plan to Kill Lincoln Swaps Restriction

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If Blanche Lincoln had won the primary outright last night, then her proposal to require that banks separate themselves from their swap desks would be dead, and the bullet would have been Chris Dodd’s proposal, which was to defer implementation for a year for a ‘study’, and then let Timothy “Eddie Haskell as Wall Street’s Bitch” Giethner decide whether it was necessary.

We all know what Geithner would do.

But Lincoln is going to a runoff, and her opponent, Bill Halter, is already saying that this is exactly what she planned, that she would make the proposal, but would let it die once it was politically convenient.

So, Chris Dodd has decided not to introduce the “kill the regulation” amendment.

My guess is that he got a frantic call from Lincoln this morning, begging him to wait until after the June 8 runoff, and so the dynamics of the Congressional incumbency protection racket dictates that he pull the amendment off the table ……… At least until June 9.

Final Child Trafficker Released in Haiti

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Laura Silsby, the leader of the “missionary” expedition to rescue Haitian “orphans”, wasconvicted on charges related to human trafficking and sentenced to time served, so she has been released, and I assume that she is heading back to Idaho:

All 10 of the Americans were initially detained by the Haitian authorities, but only Silsby was charged.

Prosecutors first accused her of abducting the children, but the charge was downgraded to one of “irregular travel” – a crime which covers people smuggling.

Prosecutor Jean-Serge Joseph said she had been sentenced to three months and eight days in jail – the exact time she had spent in custody waiting for her trial.

IMHO, she used the tragedy, as well as the fervor of her fellow church members, who believed that they were rescuing from Catholicism and damnation by raising them as Evangelicals, to get the ball rolling, and I think that at least part of her motivation was money.

Considering her own problems with her failing online shopping business and her association with a man under investigation for sex trafficking, there is a strong stench of corruption and the profit motive.

Older posts are here.

Torpedo Parts Found at South Korean Ship Sinking

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Just when you think that it cannot get any crazier, salvage crews have found bits of the propeller from the torpedo that sank the South Korean naval vessel Cheonan, and it has been identified as either Russian or Chinese in origin.

So it’s pretty much a dead nuts cinch that it was a hostile act by the DPRK.

Expect things to get messy on the Korean peninsula for the next few weeks.

H/t Information Dissemination.

My earlier post on the matter.

Dem Primary Results in Pennsylvania and Kentucky, Returns in Arkansas

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It’s official, Joe Sestak has defeated Arlen Specter for the Democratic nomination for Senate in Pennsylvania.

Rather refreshingly, Specter is staying relatively classy:

Specter also said he called Sestak to congratulate him and tell him he thinks it’s vital to keep the seat in the Democratic Party.

I don’t expect him to aggressively stump for Sestak, first, he’s an 80 year-old cancer survivor, and second, he lost in large part because of his unpopularity, but I expect a joint press conference in the next few days.

And in the Democratic primary for Senate in Kentucky, Conway beats Mongiardo in a close one, so the good Dem beats the faux (anti-abortion, etc.) Dem.

In the special election in PA-12 to replace Murtha, Mark Critz defeated Tim Burns, which means that the Dems hold on to the seat, but Critz is the a seriously right wing Dem, rather far to the right of Murtha, who he worked for as a staffer.

On the other hand, both Congressional campaign committees dumped a lot of money on this, so it’s a good sign that Critz won, and that it was not particularly close.

It’s still to soon for Arkansas, but right now, it looks like it will be headed to a runoff, because neither Blanche Lincoln nor Bill Halter will get 50% of the vote.

As it stands right now it’s Bill Halter with 42.65%, Blanche Lincoln 43.26%, and DC Morrison with 14.09%, with 53% reporting, which means that Halter or Lincoln would need to get somewhere around 58% of the remaining votes to avoid a runoff, which is not going to happen.

The only question now is who will finish in 1st place.

(on edit)

There will therefore be a runoff on June 8.

Primary News: Kentucky

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They are calling the Republican Senate primary for Rand Paul, the son of tea-party godfather Ron Paul:

Political novice Rand Paul rode support from tea party activists to victory in Kentucky’s Republican Senate primary Tuesday night, delivering a jolt to the GOP establishment and providing fresh evidence of widespread voter discontent in a turbulent midterm election season.

Paul had 59 percent of the vote — with returns counted from 29 percent of the precincts — to 37 percent for Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who had been recruited to run by the state’s dominant Republican, U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Make no mistake about it: This is a major loss for McConnell and the Republican machine in Kentucky.

This may make the seat more winnable for the Dems, though it is still a long shot, because the Republican establishment, led by McConnell, is not going to pull the lever for Paul, and might even pull the lever for a Dem.

And, at least in the preliminary numbers, it looks like the Dem won’t be a blue dog type, as, at the time that I am typing this, “Attorney General Jack Conway led Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, 49 percent to 39 percent.”

Conway is pro choice, pro-union, etc.

I think that this improves the Dems’ chances here, because people will vote for a real Democrat, Conway, ahead of a fake blue dog, Mongiardo.

Again, this may be a reaction to the party machine, which backed Mongiardo.

Eu Passes Restrictions on Hedge Funds

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EU finance ministers have decided to require greater transparency and regulations of hedge funds, despite (also here):

EU finance ministers have agreed a common position on draft EU legislation on managers of hedge funds and other alternative investment firms, opening the door for negotiations with the European Parliament, the co-legislator.

The agreement on Tuesday (18 May) comes despite UK concerns that the Europe-wide law could negatively impact the British economy, with 80 percent of hedge funds currently located in London.

I would note that one of the myths here is that hedge funds and other highly speculative activities benefit the economy as a whole.

They don’t. They suck productive intellect and capital into purely speculative activities, and this makes everyone but the hedgies and bankers poorer.

The US has been fighting this tooth and nail, and claiming that this is protectionism in violation of WTO rules, but I agree with Yves at naked capitalism on what this is really about: “

Yves again. Did you catch that? Look at what the Europeans want: to regulate hedge and PE funds, as in prevent them from engaging in behavior proven to be dangerous (abuse leverage) and give investors more disclosure, and restrict firms that refuse to agree to play by those rules. That is hardly a radical agenda, yet Treasury Department is working in lockstep with the industry to defend its ability to operate with minimal constraints. And note that no one is mounting an argument that these businesses are socially productive and hurting them will hurt the economy because no such argument can be made credibly. Instead, an effort to impose “prudent regulation” is begin branded as “discrimination.” The problem is no one outside the industry will buy the argument. And Team Obama’s zealous defense of these firms again reveals how, despite its efforts to present a populist, pro-reform image, that it will never cross its best friends, the big financiers, in a serious way.

With members of Congress realizing that the political backlash from being easy on the banks completely overwhelming any amount of campaign donations that the finance industry can generate, which is why the Senate finance reform bill is getting better, it’s time for Barack and His Evil Minions™ to realize that their political future is connected to taking down the banks.

Hating on Sports Analogies

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Particularly when the person using them does not understand the underlying sport.

Case in point, Greg Sandoval, who in writing about a German court order banning an ISP from providing bandwidth, titles the article, ” Studios score another TKO against Pirate Bay,” in discussing the short-lived offline period.

Less than 12 hours later Pirate Bay was back on line.

I’m not sure if Mr. Sandoval wrote the headline, or if someone else did, but whoever it was, they have no f%$#ing clue as to the sport of boxing, nor what a TKO is.

TKO stands for “Technical Knock Out,” and when it occurs, it’s game over, and someone has lost:

A knockout (also referred to as a K.O.) is a winning criterion in several full-contact combat sports, such as boxing, kickboxing, Muay Thai, mixed martial arts, Karate and others sports involving striking. A knockout is usually awarded when one participant is unable to rise from the canvas within a specified period of time, typically because of fatigue, injury (serious or temporarily incapacitating, e.g. a bleeding cut above the eye can blind a fighter), loss of balance, or unconsciousness; that is, the person may literally be knocked out. A technical knockout (also referred to as a T.K.O.) is often declared when the referee or other judges (such as official ring physician, the fighter, or the fighter’s cornermen) decide that a fighter cannot continue the match, even though he did not fail the count, or, in many regions, a fighter has been knocked down three times in one round.[1] British records refer to TKOs as either “retired”, if the fighter refuses to continue, or “R.S.F.”, for Referee Stopped Fight. In amateur boxing, a knockout is scored as “RSC,” for Referee Stopped Contest. A technical knockout (“Outclassed”) can also be declared if a fighter is ahead by 15 points in a bout.

If you want to use a sports analogy, this is something like a yellow card. It’s inconvenient, and a warning, but the game is still on.

Better yet, Don’t Use a Sports Analogy!!!!

Economics Update

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Well, over the past few days, we’ve had a spate of good news, with the New York Bank of the Federal Reserve’s Empire State index showing continued growth, though that growth is slowing, with the index dropping from 31.9 in April to 19.1 in May.

Additionally, credit card issuers are reporting reduced delinquencies for April.

In real estate, we have the National Association of Home Builders confidence index rising to a 2½ year high in May, as well as an increase in housing starts, though housing permits have fallen, which indicates that the builders are expecting the euphoria to be short lived.

Finally, concerns about the Euro zone, and a related return to recession (we’re out of recession?) have pushed both oil and the Euro down.

Germany Temporarily Bans the Naked CDS

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Notwithstanding Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner’s whoring for the big banks support of so-called naked Credit Default Swaps, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority has banned the sale of these insurance like instruments to people who do not have an interest in the continued existence of the insured property, as well as banning naked short sales of stocks, where you sell stocks that you have not borrowed:

The Federal Financial Supervisory Authority has on Tuesday temporarily banned naked short sales of debt securities issued by eurozone countries for trading on domestic stock exchanges in the regulated market. It has also temporarily banned so-called credit default swaps (CDS) where the reference bond and liability are from a eurozone country, and which does not serve to hedge against default risk (naked CDS).

In addition, BaFin has banned naked short sales in the following financial sector companies:

AAREAL BANK AG
ALLIANZ SE
COMMERZBANK AG
DEUTSCHE BANK AG
DEUTSCHE BÖRSE AG
DEUTSCHE POSTBANK AG
GENERALI Deutschland HOLDING AG
HANNOVER RÜCKVERSICHERUNG AG
MLP AG
MÜNCHENER RÜCKVERSICHERUNGS-GESELLSCHAFT AG
These bans apply from 19 May 2010, 00:00, until 31 March 2011, 24:00, and will be reviewed.

BaFin justifies these steps given extraordinary volatility in debt securities issued by eurozone countries. Furthermore, credit default swaps on the credit default risk of several countries in the eurozone has increased significantly. Against this background, massive short sales of the affected debt securities and the conclusion of naked credit default risk on eurozone countries had led to excessive price shifts, which could have led to significant disadvantages for financial markets and have threatened the stability of the entire financial system.

Faced with these circumstances, BaFin has also banned naked short sales within the selected financial institutions.

It’s a start, and I think that both the naked short and the naked CDS may very well be illegal throughout Europe in the next 6-12 months as a result.

Link in the original German.

(on edit)
My bad it appears that this ban is temporary lasting until March 31, 2011:

Germany will temporarily ban naked short selling and naked credit-default swaps of euro-area government bonds at midnight after politicians blamed the practice for exacerbating the European debt crisis.

The ban will also apply to naked short selling in shares of 10 banks and insurers that will last until March 31, 2011, German financial regulator BaFin said today in an e-mailed statement. The step was needed because of “exceptional volatility” in euro-area bonds, the regulator said.

Makes it less likely that this is part of a trend.

Your Daily Dose of Schadenfreude

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Your moment of Zen:
Rep Souder and his mistress discussing abstinence

Representative Mark Souder (R-IN) will resign after it was revealed that he had an affair with one of his staffers, one Tracy Jackson:

Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN), a champion of abstinence education and traditional family values, will resign effective Friday after an affair with a female staffer in his district office, he announced today.

He said in a statement that he “sinned against God, my wife and my family by having a mutual relationship with a part-time member of my staff.” …

(emphasis mine)

If this video does not appear on The Daily Show‘s moment of Zen, I will send a strongly worded letter of complaint Comedy entral about this.

OK, This is Really Stupid

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Blanche Lincoln went to vote today, but she was turned away because she had already requested an absentee ballot:

Sen. Blanche Lincoln suffered what might be one of the all-time greatest campaign staff fails this morning. According to her campaign staff, Lincoln was initially turned away when she tried to vote at her home her polling place this morning after elections officials discovered she had already requested an absentee ballot be sent to her Virginia home. Poll workers told Lincoln their records showed she had already voted.

So, her photo-op turned into a clusterf%$#.

Sounds typical for Ms. Lincoln.