Month: September 2010

We Are Completely Screwed……

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Barry Ritholtz is reporting that Morgan Stanley has frozen hiring at its investment banking division, because of, “low trading and underwirting volume.”

Additionally, the midsized investment bank Jefferies and Company is reporting that it had its worst quarter since last year.

If Jefferies does not ring a bell, there was a spate of stories about them a few months ago lauding how they avoided any damage from the financial meltdown because of their prudence and probity.

What we are seeing here is the slow unwinding of the Geithner/Obama bank bailout, which basically consists of extend and pretend, with the hope that banks will generate enough profits to eventually fill the holes in the balance sheets.

It’s why Geithner has actively fought against transparency in accounting and limits on executive compensation: He is afraid that someone who knows where the bodies are buried will take the whole rotten system down.

The problem with his solution is two fold:

  • There simply ISN’T enough money to allow them to fill their balance sheet hole. I don’t mean that they don’t have enough money, I mean that the whole f%$#ing world as well as Mars and most of Jupiter do not have enough money.
  • The banksters had no intention of rebuilding their balance sheets, they just continued looting, because they make their money this year from this.

What is going on now is that banks like Morgan Stanley are running out of suckers, who are increasingly realizing that they are just being taken, and banks like Jefferies are running out legitimate knowledgeable customers, because these customers are coming to realizing that, with the exit of the rubes, cash is going to be in very short supply.

If I am right, and I think that I am, when the sh%$ hits the fan this time, they won’t be able to panic congress into another TARP, and the Fed will be constrained by both its own hawks as well as the lack of buy in from the Congress, which will limit the legitimacy of any actions that they take.

It will be ugly, even if the next collapse is not as bad as Lehman, because there is much less capacity to accommodate such a shock.

I Think That it Might Be a Blasphemous Rumor,

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At least, there is symmetry.

Zathras is used to being beast of burden to other people’s needs. Very sad life. Probably have very sad death. But…

but I think that God has a sick sense of humor,
and when I die, I expect to find him laughing:

In a bizarre twist, James Heselden, owner of the company that makes the two-wheeled Segway personal transporter, died Sunday morning in a Segway-related mishap — just before the scheduled release of a study suggesting injuries related to the vehicles may be on the rise.

According to a witness report, Heselden, 62, apparently fell off a 30-foot cliff into a river while riding a Segway near his home in West Yorkshire, UK. Police found Heselden’s body and a Segway personal transporter in the river. He was prounced dead at the scene and foul play is not suspected, West Yorkshire Police told reporters.

A short statement posted on the Segway company website noted that Heselden “died in a tragic accident.”

I think that I have commented before on the tremendous suckitude that is the Segway, and I do understand that this is a deep personal life for Heselden’s family, but this is just plain freaky.

Russia Will Not Sell S-300 to Iran

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President Medvedev has announced that the Sale of S-300 surface to air missiles to Iran.

Russia has always taken a minimalist approach to obeying UN sanctions regarding the Iranian nuclear, so this is a big deal, particularly since these missiles, with their 400+ km detection range, end up as a formidable area defense system against conventional aircraft, and a formidable point defense system against stealthy targets, at least to the degree that my wild assed guess regarding detection range are justified.

F-35 Full Monty

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Such a tease!

Stephen Trimble gives us a shot of the internal weapons bay of the F-35.

This is intended to be the standard loadout, with one AMRAAM and one 2000 lb JDAM in each bay.

IIRC, with the 250 lb SDB, it can carry 4 per bay.

And yes, this appears to be a pretty small weapons load for an aircraft that has a maximum takeoff weight of 70,000 pounds, nearly that of the F-15 E, which can carry about 5 times the ordinance.

MBDA Proposes Compressed Carriage Meteor for F-35

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If you squint, you can see the Bobbetized fins

MDBA is looking at clipping the fins of the Meteor, as was done with the AIM-120 AMRAAM, so that it can be properly accommodated in the internal weapons bay of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

It makes sense, since by any reasonable measure, foreign sales of the F-35 will dominate the international sales.

This is not surprising. Among the active radar guided missiles, is the 2nd smallest, after the French MICA, the AIM-120 has the what appears to be the shortest range and end game kinematics, which makes a ready market for an extended range missile, particularly when used in the F-35, which, unlike the F-22, is not expected to be launching the missile at 20,000 m and mach 1.3+, which significantly improves range.

The USAF is aware of this, and is looking to develop a longer ranged, “dual-role air dominance missile,” to replace both the AMRAAM and the HARM missile.

It would probably make more sense for the USAF to go with an existing system like the Meteor under license production, with some modification to the software and seeker to meet their needs, but that would eliminate some 6 figure consulting gigs for the generals once they retire, which mitigates against this sort of solution.

Sikorsky X2 Sets Unofficial Speed Record

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The helicopter has reached speeds in excess of 250 kt (460 km/h) in level flight, besting the official record of 217 kts set by a (then Westland) Lynx, and the unofficial record set by its predecessor, the XH-59A demonstrator, of 236 kts.

It also appears that it could achieve a speed of 265 kts with the addition of a “sail fairing” between the two rotors.

It’s unclear to me, however how this is a helicopter speed record, and not a compound helicopter speed record, since the tail thruster makes a significant difference in just how power is applied at higher speeds.

I was under the impression that either a wing or a horizontal thruster made it a compound helo, but it appears that the definition being used here is that it’s specifically the wing that makes it a compound helicopter.

French Armed Forces Chief of Staff Agrees With Captain Kirk

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You can find the full episode, Taste of Armegeddon, on Youtube, but here is Seth MacFarlane doing William Shatner

In a speech, he is suggesting that the extensive use of remotely controlled vehicles in the pursuit of war creates a sanitized war that could become immoral:

Admiral Edouard Guillaud, the French armed forces chief of staff, warned his distinguished audience at the Summer Defense University on September 14 that “there needs to be a fundamental reflection on the idea that there can be zero deaths in war.” Speaking in measured tones Guillaud, who could easily pass for a brilliant university professor, questioned the increasing use of armed unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) in Afghanistan. “War becomes banal when the aggressor runs no risks,” he said adding that “the growth in technology must slow down because man must be able to master it.” He stressed that this issue of man mastering technology or allowing himself to become a slave to it “is a real question.” He said “this is an ethical question which will eventually lead to some form of legislation.”

It does sound a lot like:

“Death… destruction, disease, horror, that’s what war is all about. That’s what makes it a thing to be avoided. You’ve made it neat and painless. So neat and painless, you’ve had no reason to stop it. And you’ve had it for over five hundred years. Since it seems to be the only way I can save my crew, and my ship, I’m going to end it for you. One way, or another.”

Obviously, it’s not immoral to make war in a manner that minimizes casualties, but it’s equally obvious that if the technology results in making war that one would not otherwise make, then there needs to be some real discussion of the what the idea of remote control war, run by remote control, makes war too much of a throw away decision.

Stewart on the Republican Pledge

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Why do I even bother blogging, when all I need to do is point you to Jon Stewart monologues:

Just to get this straight: Two years ago America broke up with you because you had badly mistreated her. And so you disappear, do some soul searching, get your head together. And you come back rapping on our door, hat in hand, and you say: ‘Baby, I know you left me, but if we get back together, I pledge to you, I promise you, I will still try to f%$#k your sister. Every chance I get. It’s who I am.’

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Haven Trust Bank Florida, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl
  2. North County Bank, Arlington, WA

Full FDIC list

It’s a 2 closure Friday again for banks, which these days qualifies as low key, but the credit union world was far more active, with NCUA taking 3 wholesale credit unions into receivership today, they are not showing up on the full NCUA list, which only covers retail institutions:

Nearly two years after Wall Street’s giants were rescued by the federal government, regulators on Friday took over three financial institutions that provide the underpinning for hundreds of the nation’s credit unions.

The three entities, known as wholesale credit unions and located in Connecticut, Illinois and Texas, were seized by regulators from the National Credit Union Administration, which supervises about 7,500 credit unions that provide basic banking services to millions of Americans. Most of those customers are linked to credit unions through their employers or through membership organizations.

Although the overwhelming majority of those credit unions are financially sound, some of the wholesale entities behind them have been hobbled by losses on subprime mortgage bonds and other complex investments. Of the 27 wholesale credit unions operating in the United States, five have been seized by regulators over the last 18 months.

…………

…Wholesale credit unions provide payment clearing and investment services to retail credit unions. They also give the retail credit unions a place to put their cash.

So there have been 14 retail credit unions closed, and 3, wholesale ones.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

Number 7 on he List of Things That I Really Did Not Want to Know

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Ewwwww! Both the Pill and the Smile

It appears that members of the Orthodox Jewish community in Williamsburg, New York are using anal caffeine suppositories to deal with withdrawal from go juice:

Jews throughout Williamsburg snapped up caffeine suppositories today, hours before the start of the Yom Kippur fast that would deprive them of the jolt — and hunger suppression — that coffee typically provides.

The day-long fast is the centerpiece of the holiest day on the Jewish calendar — but some religious Jews see a Talmudic loophole that allows them to ingest their daily dose of caffeine, albeit through a different orifice.

“It helps — you know, it’s hard to concentrate when you’re fasting and also addicted to caffeine,” said Baruch Herzfeld, an Orthodox Jew who owns a bike store in Williamsburg. “Some take it before sundown, but most take it throughout their fasting. These guys love a good loophole.”

You know, tapering off over the few weeks before is both more in keeping with the spirit Halacha.*

*Jewish Law.

This Episode of Sesame Street Was Brought To You By the Letter “T” and the Number 2

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As in 2 Tits are 2Much:

In circumstances George Stephanopoulos probably never imagined when he gave up a hands-on role in politics to become a broadcaster, two fuzzy, nonhuman members of the “Sesame Street” cast joined him Friday morning on “Good Morning America,” along with that PBS children’s show’s executive producer, Carol-Lynn Parente, to discuss the recent decision at “Sesame Street” to pull a music video featuring the pop singer Katy Perry.

On Thursday, Sesame Workshop, which produces “Sesame Street,” said it would not broadcast a segment planned for the show’s coming season in which Ms. Perry performs a version of her song “Hot ‘N Cold” with Elmo and is seen wearing a low-cut dress.

In her “Good Morning America” interview, Ms. Parente told Mr. Stephanopoulos she was surprised at the volume of disapproving responses the video had generated when it was posted on YouTube earlier in the week.

It appears that some parents are up in arms about Katy Perry’s breasts, because her dress shows a bit of cleavage.

It’s actually fine to my mind, but I’m thinking that if the parents are this freaked out over this, they are going to be raising some sexually repressed kids who will likely be very bad in bed.

Video follows, though the comments at Youtube are prize:

White Spaces Passes FCC

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White Spaces at a Glance:
“A” can use 400 MHz without interfering with anyone

Which means that it’s now official, and any number of high speed wireless devices will be able to operate without a license in the spaces between TV channels:

The Federal Communications Commission today unanimously approved new rules for the use of unlicensed white space spectrum in a move that could pave the way for more unused wireless spectrum to be released in the future.

White space is unused spectrum that sits between TV channels. The 300MHz to 400MHz of unused spectrum is considered prime spectrum for offering wireless broadband services because it can travel long distances and penetrate through walls. The FCC unanimously agreed in November 2008 to open up this spectrum for unlicensed use. Even so, technical issues to allow device makers and service providers to use the spectrum still need to be worked out.

(emphasis mine)

The technical issues are a big deal, because, as the redoubtable Harold Feld notes, the devil is really in the details here, and the incumbent wireless providers want to require that devices ping themselves to death:

Right now, the rules require a Mode 2 (the ones that access the database directly) to ping the database every 24 hours. Mode 1 devices “listen” to Mode 2, according to the 2008 Order (which I understand means “get told when an actual change occurs). The broadcasters want the Mode 1 devices to ping the Mode 2s every 60 seconds and want Mode 2 to ping the database every 15 minutes, if not more frequently. Since television broadcast towers are big stationary things, not Ents marching on Isengard, one may ask why devices need to check more than once a day. In response, broadcasters explain that if some day some news team somewhere they might possibly be running down the street after some hot news lead if they ran into someone using a smart phone with white spaces capability it might, possibly, cause some sort of interference with the mobile news crew’s wireless microphone system.

At this time, it appears that they did not go with the ping of death regulations, nor did they require “Sense and Avoid” technology, which is purported to be both expensive and technically challenging.

One of the big things here is the geographical database: If the TV stations start making bogus claims of interference, we may end up with a situation where the coverage will be limited to remote rural areas.

Cowardly Conservadems Cause Tax Cut Catastrophe

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What Cee Lo Green Said (NSFW)

So, put a fork in it, the Democrats won’t be voting on middle class tax cuts, because the conservadems are unwilling to support the idea:

Obama wanted a vote on his proposed extension of some of the tax cuts before lawmakers returned to the campaign trail for the November 2 elections, in part to reinforce Democratic support for pocketbook issues.

Democratic strategists have been divided over whether it’s politically beneficial to push for a vote on the tax cuts now, citing their candidates from conservative states in tough re-election battles who would have to defend the resulting increase in the tax rate on wealthy Americans to previous levels.

Of course, voting on this would have put the Republicans on the defensive, by forcing them to vote against middle class tax cuts, the the conservadem/Blue Dog types are so terrified of Republicans that they are shooting themselves in the foot.

Bad policy and bad politics.

Truth be told, I’m for letting it all expire, and then increasing taxes on the very rich (94% sounds good), but still it is remarkably how Dems can pull defeat from the jaws of victory.

Take it away Cee Lo.

Economics Update

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It’s jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims are up again, t0 465,000, with the 4-week moving average falling yp 463,250 from 466,500, continuing claims falling by 48,000 to 4.49 million, and emergency claims rising by 208,000 to 5.17 million.

All in all, not a pretty picture, and neither are home sales, notwithstanding the press noting how much better August was than July, because up 7.6% from July means less than down 19% from August 2009.

In the business world, Blockbuster video filed for bankruptcy, which is not a surprise, it’s been expected for months, but it’s still the end of an era.

The Republican Senate Caucus Blinks

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After announcing her write in bid for the Alaska Senate, the Senate Republican caucus threatened to yank Lisa Murkowski’s position as rinking Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, but they have now backed away from that:

In a surprise move, Senate Republicans did not vote to drop one of their own, Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, as top Republican on the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Senator Murkowski’s decision to mount a write-in campaign after losing her primary to “tea party” backed attorney Joe Miller angered many of her Senate colleagues. Even a failed bid risks splitting the Republican vote in Alaska, giving Democrats an unexpected pickup and curbing GOP prospects for taking back the Senate.

On Wednesday, the caucus did replace Murkowski with Sen. John Barrasso (R) of Wyoming as vice chair of the Republican Conference – the policy wing of Senate Republicans – but it declined to go further.

So they went with a largely symbolic slap on the wrist, because losing her ranking status would have made it far more difficult for her to campaign in Alaska on the political currency of that realm, pork barrel spending.

I don’t know what went on behind closed doors, 24 hours ago her being stripped of her position was thought to be a done deal.

Jon Stewart Answers the Questions that Need to Be Answered

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We Have Found Obama’s Kryptonite

At a CNBC town hall, hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci asks Barack Obama, “When are we going to stop whacking at the Wall Steet piñata?

Well, Jon Stewart has the answer:

How long will we on Wall Street be hit like a piñata with a stick????

How about until the f%$#ing candy comes out!

How about that!

That’s how piñatas work!

…………

What you call a stick on Wall Street? I guess Amercans call a Trillion dollar bailout of your industry.

…………

Until your paper mâché bellies are no longer stuffed with government candy, walk it off!

Jon Stewart is not a man I ever want angry with me.