Year: 2010

What Do Alan Grayson and Church Lady Have in Common

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Could it be ………… Satan?

Well, first, they are both very funny, and they both present an aggressive take on truth and hypocrisy.

Now we have a 3rd thing, they both think that Satan has something to the darkness at the core of our society:

The Prince of Darkness himself might be best-suited to write the foreword to former Vice President Dick Cheney’s forthcoming book, Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) suggested Monday.

Grayson, during an appearance on MSNBC, blasted the former Republican vice president for having attacked President Barack Obama’s handling of defending the U.S. from terrorist attacks.

Cheney’s attacks, Grayson argued, were only a tactic to gin up sales for his memoir, which is expected to be released this year.

“I wonder who’s doing the introduction to his book?” Grayson said. “Maybe it’s Mephistopheles; maybe it’s Satan.“

Somehow I doubt that Satan would want to be associated with Dick Cheney, it would be bad for his image, but Grayson’s underlying point, that the Republicans used security as political theater, rather than making a good faith attempt to keep us safe, is valid.

One note to the morons who compare Grayson to people like Michelle Bachman: There is a difference.

Grayson uses hyperbole to make his point, and he knows it, while when Bachmann says, for example, that US Census data will be used for Kommie Koncentration Kamps™, she actually really believes it.

Economics Update

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The Institute for Supply Management’s national factory index just rose to 55.9, the highest reading on factory activity since April 2006.

It’s good news, but but as Krugman notes, it may just be an inventory bounce:

Such blips are often, in part, statistical illusions. But even more important, they’re usually caused by an “inventory bounce.” When the economy slumps, companies typically find themselves with large stocks of unsold goods. To work off their excess inventories, they slash production; once the excess has been disposed of, they raise production again, which shows up as a burst of growth in G.D.P. Unfortunately, growth caused by an inventory bounce is a one-shot affair unless underlying sources of demand, such as consumer spending and long-term investment, pick up.

That being said, we are seeing increased demands for capital from small businesses, with a 37% year over year increase in the Small Business Administration’s 7(a) lending program, a total of $3.8 billion.

On the down side, construction spending fell for the 7th, falling 0.6%, and it has been reported that US bankruptcies are up 32% in 2008.

On the other side of the pond, new orders to factories slowed in the Euro zone.

In energy, low temperatures and a Russia-Belarus price dispute drove Oil above $80/bbl.

In currency, the US dollar fells on the good ISM factory report, as risk appetite improved.

Rep. Parker Griffith’s Staff Quits En Masse

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This is not a big surprise, first, they know that they won’t find work with Republicans, and second, they know that if they don’t quit, they won’t ever work for a Democratic Congressman again:

In a sternly worded statement, Griffith Chief of Staff Sharon Wheeler announced the exit of herself, along with legislative director Megan Swearingen, senior legislative assistant Brian Greer, legislative assistant Will Crain, press secretary Sean Magers, legislative correspondent Arinze Ifekauche, legislative correspondent Chase Chesser, staff assistant Mary Lou Hughston, congressional fellows Anjali Shah Kastorf and Leslee Oden and intern Andrew Menefee.

Griffith’s political consulting team has already parted ways with him since he announced over the holiday break that he would switch parties.

(emphasis mine)

The intern quit? The intern?

Dude, when your intern felt compelled to quit, you just got yourself seriously dissed.

Elections Have Consequences: Not Pandering to the House of Saud

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In response to the attempted bombing of Northwest Flight 253, the TSA will engage in aggressive screening of travelers from 14 countries.

I think that, once again, we are seeing something that is more security theater than real security, but there is a refreshing change in this little charade:

Citizens of 14 nations, including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, who are flying to the United States will be subjected indefinitely to the intense screening at airports worldwide that was imposed after the Christmas Day bombing plot, Obama administration officials announced Sunday.

………………

Citizens of Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria, countries that are considered “state sponsors of terrorism,” as well as those of “countries of interest” — including Afghanistan, Algeria, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Yemen — will face the special scrutiny, officials said.

(emphasis mine)

This is significant break from the way that Bush and His Evil Minions™ dealt with the House of Saud, which basically involved putting their tongues so far up the anus of Prince Bandar that they tasted tonsils.

Not Enough Bullets

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AIG general counsel Anastasia Kelly is to receive millions in dollars in severance after her pay was cut by Obama’s “pay Czar”.

I would note that she is the only one of the AIG executives to go through with their threat to leave, which implies that she might have been pushed, and as general counsel, she doubtless played a central role in the creation of these severance deals.

Sorry, but I think that it is time for the DoJ and SEC to see if she was doing something illegal in the way of self dealing.

Considering her background, she was also general counsel at the MCI/Worldcom, perhaps the bar association should investigate her too, since they can take action against incompetent lawyers.

Report: Russia Enters Test With PAK-FA

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Nose Radar Installation


Wing Leading Edge Arrays


Optical/IR Search and Track

We now have a report that they have run up the engines in the prototype and taxied:

The first prototype of the aircraft rolled out on the runway of KNAAPO aircraft plant in Komsomolsk-on-Amur in the country’s far east. The test pilot switched on its engines and made two runs on the airstrip, during which breaks were applied several times.

The report says that they expect to field the aircraft in 2015, but my guess is that this is either a deliberate deception, or self delusion.

We are still getting conflicting reports on just what the aircraft is like, though this story reports a 3,500 km range, which I assume refers to ferry range, and is roughly equivalent to that of the F-22, for which the Wiki quotes a 2,000 mi (3,219 km) range.

Assuming that this is the case, I would assume that the PAK-FA is a bit smaller than the F-22, since the Russians tend to have internal fuel tanks which are not rated at the aircraft’s full performance (the equivalent of a internal “external tank”), as they are doctrinally less inclined to use either external tanks or aerial refueling.

One thing that is almost certain though: That its missiles will have superior kinematics to the AMRAAM/AIM-9Z used by the Raptor. The current Russian missiles are larger and heavier than the American loadout, and larger missiles=larger motors=longer range and better terminal performance.

Also, my guess is that the Russians are going “stealth lite”, with a greater reliance on sensors and missile kinematics, as opposed to all aspect stealth.

The photos from the Wiki, show a larger AESA radar array (top pic), wing leading edge mounted arrays for better off-axis performance (middle pic), and an Optical/IR Search and Track (bottom pic) for passive, or 3rd party designated, engagement of targets.

My guess is that the missiles will be mounted conformally, as opposed to internally, because the associated weight of internal carriage of larger missiles would very likely prove prohibitive.

But those are just my not-particularly-educated guesses, and we have to wait for the first blurry photos to be leaked to Aviation Week & Space Technology.

What 10 Years of Conservatives Getting What They Wanted Got Us

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Note that private employment rolls actually fell


And in handy bar graph form

The Washington Post correctly called the “Aughts” a lost decade, inflation adjusted median income fell (for the first time on record), non-farm payroll experienced no growth (for the first time on record), household wealth fell (for the first time on record), GDP rose by the lowest number since at least the Great Depression.

The same goes for the stock market, only in this case, the records go back 200 years.

We have had a grand experiment of embracing conservative philosophy, with a highly right wing executive and a compliant legislative branch, since 2001 and the result has been miserable failure.

The past decade may not be as bad as the Great Depression, but it beats anything else in the 20th or 21st century, and it is not over yet.

My Life Is Less Exciting Than This Sounds

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Yesterday, I went to an event for a medieval reenactment group, the Society for Creative Anachronism, and I left without my pants.

The full story is that I went there in street clothes, and changed into period garb there, and somehow or other, the jeans that I wore to the event did not make themselves back into my bag.

I had to pick them up today.

Pretty dull, but that first sentence is intriguing.

The Right to Blaspheme is the Core of Civil Rights in a Modern Democracy

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So, we now have the breaking news that a a man armed with knives and axes attempted to break into the home of Kurt Westergaard, one of the artists who created the Danish cartoons (see pic).

The response to such terrorism must be more speech that religious fundamentalists find blasphemous, hence my reposting the picture. If you allow the clergy to determine what can, or cannot, be said, you eventually create a theocracy, and history has shown that theocracies are amongst the worst forms of despotism.

Additionally, as I have said before, “If your God can’t take me calling him a pig felcher, then he ain’t much of a God.”

While I understand how backward 3rd nations, like, for example, Ireland might want to outlaw blasphemy, I think that modern nations must necessarily understand that as a condition for full access to the benefits of western economies and markets.

The free traders believe that open markets create open societies, but given the explosion of blasphemy laws, and blasphemy prosecutions, since the adoption of the GATT (Now WTO), I would argue that the opposite has occurred.

The reduction to costs involved in acceding to the demands of medieval fundamentalists, because the current model of “free trade” means that a country has full access to international markets unless their policies are nearly genocidal, has led mainstream politicians who are looking for allies and coalition partners, to sign off on demands that are contrary to modern civil rights.

FWIW, I believe that the same sanctions should be applied to laws that criminalize criticism of royalty (Thailand) or the nation (Turkey, etc.).

Really Bad Idea

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It seems that the Chinese are looking at using nuclear powered cargo ships to ship cheap crap to the USA.

Bad idea, and a lose, as is obvious from looking at the history of nuclear powered civilian cargo vessels, or just the numbers for the NS Savannah:

However, Savannah’s cargo space was limited to 8,500 tons of freight in 652,000 cubic feet (18,000 m³). Many of her competitors could accommodate several times as much. Her streamlined hull made loading the forward holds laborious, which became a significant disadvantage as ports became more and more automated. Her crew was a third larger than comparable oil-fired ships and received special training after completing all training requirements for conventional maritime licenses. Her operating budget included the maintenance of a separate shore organization for negotiating her port visits and a personalized shipyard facility for completing any needed repairs.

And then there is that whole Somali Pirate thing, which makes the idea of an unarmed civilian ship operating a nuclear reactor on the high seas even less attractive.

I can see al Qaeda salivating over the prospect of seizing a ship like this.

H/t Information Dissemination

Again, No Surprise

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The single most important criteria determining whether or not a bank was bailed out by was the personal and political closeness to the Fed or to the Congress of its senior management:

A new study by Ross professors Ran Duchin and Denis Sosyura found that banks with connections to members of congressional finance committees and banks whose executives served on Federal Reserve boards were more likely to receive funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, the federal government’s program to purchase assets and equity from financial institutions to strengthen its financial sector.

Further, their research shows that TARP investment amounts were positively related to banks’ political contributions and lobbying expenditures, and that, overall, the effect of political influence was strongest for poorly performing banks.

Hoocoodanode?

The process of bailing out the banks was an artifact of corruption and self-dealing.

H/t zero hedge

Here’s a Surprise

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Nearly flat for 2 years

One of the things that I have occasionally remarked on is how data for M3, one of the broader measures of money supply is no longer collected by the Fed.

The claim is that it’s a conspiracy to conceal the reckless and inflationary expansion of the money supply, but as Tim Iacono shows, it hasn’t really happened.

Basically, the Fed may be printing money, but banks are not lending, so the money supply, at least the money supply as described by the M3, is basically flat, so we are not in an inflationary situation.

To my mind, this is a bad thing, since, as I have stated many times before, increasing inflation will have the effect of moving the price many assets above the amount of money owed on them.

A description of the various measures of money, cut-and-pasted from the Wiki, is below the fold:

  • M0: Notes and coins (currency) in circulation and in bank vaults. In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, M0 includes bank reserves, so M0 is referred to as the monetary base, or narrow money.
  • MB: Equals M0 + reserves which commercial banks hold in their accounts with the central bank (minimum reserves and excess reserves). MB is referred to as the monetary base or total currency. This is the base from which other forms of money (like checking deposits, listed below) are created and is traditionally the most liquid measure of the money supply.
  • M1: M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Bank reserves are not included in M1.
  • M2: Equals M1 + savings deposits, time deposits less than $100,000 and money market deposit accounts for individuals. M2 represents money and “close substitutes” for money. M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. Economists use M2 when looking to quantify the amount of money in circulation and trying to explain different economic monetary conditions. M2 is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.
  • M3: Equals M2 + large time deposits, institutional money-market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, along with other larger liquid assets. M3 is no longer published or revealed to the public by the US central bank. However, it is estimated by the web site Shadow Government Statistics. It is also estimated on a weekly basis by the web site Now and the Future.
  • MZM: Money with zero maturity. This measure equals M2 plus all money market funds, minus time deposits. It measures the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand.

Franken Rape Amendment Becomes Law

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The 2010 Defense Authorization Bill was signed into law by Barack Obama about 2 weeks ago, and the bill included Al Franken’s prohibition on defense contractors using binding arbitration to keep things like the rape of their employees by their employees out of court.

Since it’s attached to an appropriations bill, it only runs for a year, so I would suggest a stand alone bill, timed to hit the floor in the June-July time frame to permanently close the loophole.

We’ll see how many ‘Phants want to vote pro-rape a few months prior to elections, particularly given the outrage over the pro-rape Republicans over Franken Amendment in the first place.

Army Issues Improved M4/M16 Magazine

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The tan follower is the new magazine, and will be phased in as the older green followers are phased out. The black follower is to be removed from service immediately.

How the longer legs stabilizes feeding

Basically, it uses a more robust follower and a stronger spring to improve reliability:

The Army has begun fielding the new 5.56mm 30 round Improved Magazine that delivers a significant increase in reliability for the battle-tested M16 and M4 weapons systems. Bolstering the already high reliability ratings of the M16/M4 systems, the Improved Magazine effectively reduces the risk of magazine-related stoppages by more than 50 percent compared to the older magazine variants. Identified by a tan-colored follower, over 500,000 of the improved magazines have been fielded to units in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the U.S.

“With the improved magazines, we’re taking weapons reliability up another notch,” said LTC Chris Lehner, Product Manager Individual Weapons. “By incorporating a heavier, more corrosion resistant spring, along with a new follower design that does not tilt inside the casing, our engineers were able to develop a magazine that presents a round to the weapon with even greater stability. Increased magazine reliability results in overall improved weapon system performance.”

Note, however, that this only reduces magazine related stoppages, and does not address the issues with the M4/M16’s sensitivity to grime, etc. and issues related to its gas tube operation.

Spotted: China flies air-launched cruise missile – The DEW Line

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Shown here on an H-6M Badger

The Chinese Military Aviation blog (bottom of page) has reported that the PLAAF has fielded a cruise missile, the CJ-10K, which is based on the ground launched CJ-10, which in turn derived some of its technology from the Russian KH-55.

It appears to be very similar in size to the Tomawhawk and the KH-55, which is no surprise, and its range is in the 1,500-2,500 km range, which makes it roughly equivalent to the Tomahawk.

It should be noted that the H-6M Badger is significantly improved, significant avionics upgrades as well as modern turbofans replacing its thirsty turbojets, which give it a range in the 3,000-3,500 km range, which would allow the aircraft/missile combination to strike Alaska without refueling, and air to air refueling, which the Chinese are now doing routinely might allow a strike against Hawaii as well.

At about 9,000 km, a strike on the mainland US well out of range,though much of Europe would be in range.

H/t The DEW Line

So Not a Surprise

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The New Economics Foundation has done a study on the economic impact of bankers, and claims to have shown that bankers actually destroy economic value:

Bankers should count themselves lucky they are being hit by a mere 50 per cent additional tax on bonuses, a new report argues today, because their benefit to society is negative.

The New Economics Foundation, a left-leaning think-tank, says that by contrast hospital cleaners and many other low-paid workers contribute far more to society and this should be reflected in their pay.

Although the NEF is far from an orthodox economic think-tank, its A Bit Rich report stems from standard public economics theory that the government should step in if people’s value to society is remarkably different from their private value to an employer. The government already steps in, taxing everyone to ensure many jobs with high social value happen where those services would not be provided otherwise.

………………

The authors assume the financial crisis and recession would not have happened without City bankers engaging in risky, opaque and complex transactions. Applying a guess about the cost of the recession on the rest of society, they estimate top City bankers destroy £7 of value for every £1 they are paid privately.

If the figures are accurate, a rational government should shut the City. Naturally, the City disagrees and so does the Treasury, which sees benefits in properly regulated activity in the Square Mile.

This is something that ordinary people get, which is why the AIG bonuses and their ilk so outraged them: The point is not that these people are uniquely skilled, the Alex Rodriguez’s of their craft, but rather that they are the “Marvelous” Marv Throneberry‘s of the world.

These people do not need to be retained, they need to be excised from the financial system.