Year: 2010

Excuse Me While My Head Explodes

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So, someone in the Obama administration is floating the idea that it would be a good to make (likely soon to be former her election is still to close to call) Congress woman Melissa Bean head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau? (CFPB)

Yes, the Democrat most hostile to both to banking regulations in general and to the CFPB in general, is being mooted by some idiot in the Obama administration economic team *cough* Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner *cough* being the first official head of a bureau dedicated to protecting consumers from predatory lenders.

If Elizabeth Warren played the role of Martin Luther, protesting the corruption in the system by nailing her 95 theses to the door of the church, then Melissa Bean is the Church of Wall Street’s Temple Prostitute, selling indulgences.*

And someone in the Obama white house wants her to head the CFPB.

Never heard of Melissa Bean? Well Jane Hamshire has the bill of particulars: (quoting)

Seriously, if Barack Obama nominates her for this post, it will show that he is completely in the pocket of the banking industry.

To be fair, this could be an administration official, *cough* Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner *cough*, free lancing, but I am inclined to see this as deliberate and calculated. This administration revels in message control.

*Yes, I know, this is a badly mixed metaphor.

What Bill Maher Said

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True Dat

there are way too many people who think that reasoned discourse is about equating the two sides.

It’s not. Reasoned discourse is about the truth, and as Bill Maher notes, “Keith Olbermann is right when he says he’s not the equivalent of Glenn Beck. One reports facts the other one is very close to playing with his poop.”

That is the problem with the Stewart/Colbert March for Sanity/Fear.

At the core of this discussion, there are people who are just lying or delusional, and they should not be considered equivalent to those who are merely partisan.

As the noted tippler Daniel Patrick Moynihan once noted, “People are entitled to their own opinions, not to their own facts.”

And Stewart and Colbert did not make that distinction at the rally, though, ironically enough, Stewart does so regularly on his show.

Olbermann Is Back on the Air Tomorrow

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And there was much rejoicing:

STATEMENT REGARDING KEITH OLBERMANN – SUNDAY, NOV. 7

From Phil Griffin, President of MSNBC:

After several days of deliberation and discussion, I have determined that suspending Keith through and including Monday night’s program is an appropriate punishment for his violation of our policy. We look forward to having him back on the air Tuesday night.

I imagine that Keith’s ratings will be through the roof for the next few days.

We Know Who is Going to Win This War

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Killing each Taliban soldier costs $50 Million; Killing each NATO soldier costs $50 Thousand:

Kabul Press, on September 30, 2010, published an article by this author detailing the best estimate of Taliban killed per year (2,000) divided by a portion of the direct costs that the Pentagon is spending each year in Afghanistan ($100 billion). The resulting statistic suggests that it costs $50 million to kill each Taliban soldier. This number is very conservative. If all NATO and American costs (direct and indirect) were included, the analysis would reveal that it actually costs about $150 million.

The present article examines spending from the Taliban side in order to comparatively determine what it costs to kill each NATO soldier. The Brookings Institution is the consulting firm with the best political access to the Obama Administration and the U.S. State Department. In September 2009, it published a report on Taliban annual revenue, based in part on data gathered by the Congressional Research Service. Brookings estimated Taliban annual income at between $140 and $200 million. The Taliban have already inflicted over 600 deaths on NATO soldiers and more than twice that number of fatalities on Afghan army and police personnel. By the end of the year, total Coalition deaths are expected to reach 3,000. The math is unfortunately easy. Assuming Taliban revenue of $150 million divided by 3,000 = $50,000 to kill a NATO, American or Afghan soldier.

The military says that this is the product of an over simplified analysis, which is true, but the trend reflected here is correct, and we are not winning “hearts and minds” and cannot win “hearts and minds” because the populace opposes occupying forces, and our man in Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai is so indescribably incompetent and corrupt.

Oklamoma, Where the Dumb Comes Sweeping Down the Plains

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So, someone decides to ban “Sharia Law,” in Oklahoma, which will almost certainly be overturned, someone already has a claim that it invalidates his will in violation of the First Amendment, but the constitutional amendment, which intends to, “prohibit state courts from considering international law or Islamic law when deciding cases,” also has the effect of banning the 10 commandments:

[U of OK Law Professor Joseph] Thai said the ballot measure “raises thorny church-state problems as well” and could even affect a state judge’s ability to consider the Ten Commandments.

“The Ten Commandments, of course, is international law. It did not originate in Oklahoma or the United States,” Thai said.

Morons.

Both the politicians who place demagoguery above observing their oaths of office, and the voters who pulled the lever for this crap.

So, the NFP Numbers Came Out Yesterday

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The Non-Farm Payroll report for October came out Friday, and it was much better than expected, growing by 151,000 jobs, much better than the forecast of 70,000 with unemployment (U-3) remaining at 9.6%, while the broader U-6* fell by 1⁄10 of a percent to 17%.

Even more significantly, it is more than the 125-150 thousand required to meet the natural increase in the workforce, meaning that at current rates, using the lower growth number, it would only take 26⅔ years for us to recover our job losses since Wall Street imploded.

By my math, this still qualifies as a jobless recovery, particularly since the total labor force has been shrinking as workers have become discouraged or otherwise left.

* “Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.”

The F-35 JSF Clusterf%$# Gets Even Clusterf%$#ier

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Yes, everyone’s favorite too big to fail defense program fails once again, with reports that SecDef Robert Gates has been briefed that costs will further escalate, and there will be an additional 3 year delay:

Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, the Pentagon’s costliest program, may see more price increases and new schedule delays of as much as three years, two government officials familiar with the matter said.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates is scheduled to be briefed tomorrow on new cost and schedule assessments for the F-35 and other aircraft, said the officials, who requested anonymity because details aren’t public. Software, engineering and flight difficulties are greater than expected, the officials said.

……

Slippage in the JSF’s timetable may be as much as one year for the Air Force and Navy versions and two to three years for development of the Marine Corps model capable of short takeoffs and landings, the officials said.

It should be noted that these delays were forecast by the Pentagon’s Joint Estimating Team (JET) over two years ago, and much of the delays are software issues.

Even Lockheed’s CEO admits this, while asking for more money (big surprise).

What’s more, not only will it be delayed and not only will the acquisition costs rise, but direct operating costs are jumping as well:

Gates also was advised in a Nov. 2 briefing that operations and support costs for the F-35 will be re-budgeted at 1.5 times the aircraft it replaces, more than twice the original goal and 50% more than more recent projections, according to reports.

Eric Palmer runs some numbers and shows that there has been about a 3 year of push-back on the schedule over the past 3 years, so basically the program is running in place.

What a damn mess.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. K Bank, Randallstown, MD
  2. Western Commercial Bank, Woodland Hills, CA
  3. Pierce Commercial Bank, Tacoma, WA
  4. First Vietnamese American Bank, Westminster, CA

A ordinary run, so far we have averaged 3¼ bank failures a week, though K Bank is very local. My chiropractor is in Randallstown.

Also, I neglected to mention that 2010 passed 2009’s total of 134 on 22 October.

Full FDIC list

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

I would note that are now at the point where the utility of the least squares trendline is diminishing, but I’m keeping it here for historical purposes.

Well, This is Shaping Up to Be a Crappy Day

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First, I have to put my cat to sleep, and now Keith Olbermann has been suspended by MSNBC for making campaign contributions:

Keith Olbermann, the pre-eminent liberal voice on American television, was suspended Friday after his employer, MSNBC, discovered that he made campaign contributions to three Democrats last month.

The indefinite suspension was a stark display of the clash between objective journalism and opinion journalism on television.

Many prominent liberals and conservatives immediately called on MSNBC to reinstate Mr. Olbermann, who is usually outspoken but who had no comment on his suspension Friday.

The contributions came to light in an article by Politico Friday morning. Mr. Olbermann acknowledged in a statement that last month he donated $2,400 to the campaigns of Representatives Raul Grijalva and Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona and Attorney General Jack Conway of Kentucky, who lost his Senate race to Rand Paul.

I think that this is a stupid standard to hold straight journalists to, much less someone who is clearly an talking-head opinion type.

In the article, there is a suggestion that this is an attempt to make brand differentiation with Fox, where, for example, Hannity gave to Michelle “I used to be the nuttiest person in Congress, but the elections moved the bar” Bachmann, but I don’t live in media executives heads, nor would I ever want to.

It does appear that Keith will be back at some point in the not to distant future, though.

H/t DC at the by invitation only Stellar Parthenon BBS.

We Had to Put Lavi to Sleep Today

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Lavi, June 2003 – November 5, 2010
You will be missed

As I mentioned a month ago, we took her in for what looked like a bad tooth, and it turned out to be an aggressive malignant tumor.

She had stopped eating, is in pain, and is exhibiting difficulty moving, so we had to put her to sleep today.

In the pictures, you can notice the swelling on the side of her head, and the unequal pupils from the effect of the tumor on her right eye.

We buried her in the back yard, in the corner where the hill starts.

I found her in July of 1993.

I was driving from Orrville, OH, to Akron, and was sick and tired of the bottle of windshield washer fluid banging around in my trunk, so I pulled over to the side of the road, and grabbed the bottle, and popped the hood.

Under the hood, I saw something furry, and moving.

At first, I thought that it was a rat, but then I saw the ears and whiskers, so I picked her up, she fit in the palm of my hand, and she proceeded to puff herself up and hiss and spit in an attempt to intimidate me.

I took her home, and gave her a saucer of milk, and went and got some cat food.

The next day, I caught her brother, Tudza, who survives her, as they were crying to each other through the door.

She is older than my marriage, and she outlived the car under whose hood I found her so it was a good run, particularly since she survived a bout of hepatic lipidosis (fatty liver) 5½ years ago.

Both she and Tudza imprinted on me, so I guess that I am their “mommy”, though she was also my daughter Natalie’s cat.

Tudza is still alive and active, having never left his 1st kitten hood.

I can haz prosecutions?

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George W. Bush just admitted that he specifically authorized waterboarding, which is unequivocally torture under US law:

Human rights experts have long pressed the administration of former president George W. Bush for details of who bore ultimate responsibility for approving the simulated drownings of CIA detainees, a practice that many international legal experts say was illicit torture.

In a memoir due out Tuesday, Bush makes clear that he personally approved the use of that coercive technique against alleged Sept. 11 plotter Khalid Sheik Mohammed, an admission the human rights experts say could one day have legal consequences for him.

In his book, titled “Decision Points,” Bush recounts being asked by the CIA whether it could proceed with waterboarding Mohammed, who Bush said was suspected of knowing about still-pending terrorist plots against the United States. Bush writes that his reply was “Damn right” and states that he would make the same decision again to save lives, according to a someone close to Bush who has read the book.

Bush previously had acknowledged endorsing what he described as the CIA’s “enhanced” interrogation techniques – a term meant to encompass irregular, coercive methods – after Justice Department officials and other top aides assured him they were legal. “I was a big supporter of waterboarding,” Vice President Richard B. Cheney acknowledged in a television interview in February.

George W. Bush has just confessed publicly to a criminal conspiracy, and Barack Obama and Eric “Place” Holder need to (God I hate this term) “Man Up” and begin a criminal investigation.

What we also need to understand that in both Bush’s and Cheney’s talk about torture, the never suggest that they got actionable intelligence, nor that they even expected to get actionable intelligence from torture.

There are vague claims of “saving lives”, but if those were true, they would have been declassified or leaked years ago.

They didn’t authorize torture because there was a ticking bomb, there wasn’t.

They didn’t get actionable intelligence, because they would have trumpeted it.

They had no belief that it would generate actionable intelligence.

They did this because they it mad them feel tough. They deliberately authorized the infliction of pain in order to derive pleasure and self worth.

This is the very definition of Sadism.

Now, the Blue Dogs Have Lost Joke Line

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At Time, Joe Klein is saying that the devastating Blue Dog losses are their own damn fault:

This year, however, I do feel that there is an argument that, to an extent, the Dogs brought this on themselves by being penny-wise, dogpound-foolish. The argument goes like this: a larger stimulus package might have helped the economy recover at a faster clip, but the Dogs opposed it on fiscal responsibility grounds. A second argument: the public really has had it with Wall Street, but the Dogs helped water down the financial regulatory bill, gutting the too-big-to-fail provisions. There is real merit to both points. If the stimulus had been bigger and the financial reform package clearer and stronger, the public would have had a different–and, I believe, more positive–sense of the President’s agenda.

Yes, when Democrats are bitch slapping the Democratic agenda, the whole party looks week, and voters hate to vote for weakness.

H/t Kevin Drum.

It’s Jobless Thursday

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And initial unemployment claims are back up to 457,000, with the 4-week moving average rising slightly to 566,000, continuing claims fell by 42K to 4.34 million, and emergency claims, which, by the way expire on November 30, rose by 357.7K to 5.01 million.

Total up those numbers and things are getting worse, and come November 30 they expire.

Extended unemployment insurance will likely not be renewed, because the threat of electoral punishment is gone from the Republicans, and over 5 million people lose UI benefits, which will crush consumer demand in the middle of the all-important holiday season.

So we have a cohort of 99ers who would be losing their unemployment benefits anyway, along with millions of people who will be abruptly cut off.

This is going to get very ugly very fast.

So If Timidity and Capitulation Created a Disaster, then We Need More of That!

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So Barack Obama held his post election news conference, and he decided to double down on capitulation and weakness, and call it civility:

More conciliatory than contrite, Mr. Obama used that phrase, “take responsibility,” six times but rejected the suggestion that his policies were moving the country in the wrong direction. He conceded that legislation to limit greenhouse gases was dead and said he was “absolutely” willing to negotiate over the extension of tax cuts, including for the wealthy. But he drew the line at any major retreat from signature priorities, saying he would agree to “tweak” his health care program, not “relitigate arguments” over its central elements.

……

“I do believe there is hope for civility,” he said. “I do believe there’s hope for progress.”

Honestly, I understand that Barack Obama has spent his entire life trying to avoid being the stereotypical “angry black man,” because the perception is politically toxic in our not yet post-racial America.

But he’s leading with the chin again.

Barack Obama will ask what they want to preserve the sup $250K tax cuts, and they will say make the whole package permanent, and because Obama is afraid not being liked, and because he made a promise, which he wants to keep (Unlike his promises on prosecuting war crimes, closing Guantanamo, ending Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, etc.) he’ll cave, either on the $250K+ rates, or on eliminating the inheritance tax, or everything, because that’s how he rolls.

The standard line in Washington, and I’m sure that it’s one that Obama has swallowed, hook, line, and sinker, is that between the economy and “liberal overreach,” the Dems lost.

The Dems lost because they looked weak, and the Dems looked weak, because they were weak, and they were led by a weak leader, who sees his weakness as an independent good.

Economics Update

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The lede here is that the Federal Reserved has announced another round of quantitative easing (printing money), $600 billion over the next 9 months, more than the the widely forecast $½ trillion, which pushed the US dollar down in currency markets.

Accompanying the statement was a mild, to my mind too mild, statement about how the recovery is not progressing as rapidly as planned.

With the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling, and US GDP growing at a truly anemic 2% rate, I think that they are being too timid, though there is good news with the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index and non-manufacturing index, and ADP’s private employment survey: all show an increase.

Even more significantly, it appears that retail sales are beating expectations, which may bode well for the all-important holiday shopping season.

Still, real estate looks dead, with mortgage applications remaining flat despite historically low rates.

BTW, here is a blast from the past, monoliner bond insurer Ambac is warning that it might go bankrupt this year.

I’m wondering if this will put a whole raft of municipal bonds in technical default, since if Ambac goes BK, then it no longer has an obligation to fulfill its insurance contracts.

I really don’t know. Does anyone else know?

Full Fed Statement after break:

Press Release

Release Date: November 3, 2010

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. Mr. Hoenig believed the risks of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits. Mr. Hoenig also was concerned that this continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy.

Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of New York Leaving the Board

What a Whiny Bitch!!

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So, after nearly 3,000 Americans are killed by terrorists, he leads into a war against Iraq on false pretenses, a number of the White House staff out a clandestine CIA Operative, he allows a city to drown, and, “Here, watch this swing,” George W. Bush thinks that the worst day of his Presidency was when George Bush, still thin-skinned as ever, is still stewing of Kanye West:

MATT LAUER: You remember what he said?

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Yes, I do. He called me a racist.

MATT LAUER: Well, what he said, “George Bush doesn’t care about black people.”

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: That’s — “he’s a racist.” And I didn’t appreciate it then. I don’t appreciate it now. It’s one thing to say, “I don’t appreciate the way he’s handled his business.” It’s another thing to say, “This man’s a racist.” I resent it, it’s not true, and it was one of the most disgusting moments in my Presidency

MATT LAUER: This from the book. “Five years later I can barely write those words without feeling disgust.” You go on. “I faced a lot of criticism as President. I didn’t like hearing people claim that I lied about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction or cut taxes to benefit the rich. But the suggestion that I was racist because of the response to Katrina represented an all time low.”

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Yeah. I still feel that way as you read those words. I felt ’em when I heard ’em, felt ’em when I wrote ’em and I felt ’em when I’m listening to ’em.

MATT LAUER: You say you told Laura at the time it was the worst moment of your Presidency?

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Yes. My record was strong I felt when it came to race relations and giving people a chance. And– it was a disgusting moment.

I will actually agree with Bush that the criticism was wrong. What George W. Bush doesn’t care about is poor people, white or black.

Of course, the idea that he was more offended by the accusation of racism than he was about treason (outing CIA agent Valerie Plame), or incompetence (Katrina), or lying about weapons of mass destruction (Iraq) and killing thousands of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, or dropping the ball before 911, is a meaningful tell.

You see, he felt that the accusation by Kanye West was unfair, but that the other criticisms had some merit, because even saw that there was an element of truth to them.

Still, what a remarkably small and petty man.

Just Desserts

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Bummer of a birth mark, ConservaDems

In looking at the elections, there is a trend here:

While a part of this is that liberal Democrats tend to have safer seats, though one of the Blue Dog losers, Gene Taylor, had polled at more than 75% in prior elections, what this is about is the fact that the Blue Dogs and the New Dems created the groundwork for this.

When people thought that they had to vote against Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker, it was because the Blue Dogs gave credibility to this Republican talking point by campaigning against her too.

When people complained that the Congressional Democrats were in the banks pockets, it was because the New Democrat Coalition was in the pockets of the banks, and trading loopholes for campaign contributions.

When people complained that nothing was getting done, it was because the Blue Dogs and the New Democrats were slowing things down, because the Blue Dogs and the New Dems wanted time to get insurance company and banking lobbyists geared up and donating.

When they claimed that the stimulus did not work, they validated the Republican storyline.

To a very large degree, they validated the Republican attacks, and weakened legislation and policy, and contributed to the losses that we saw.

In fact, if these folks had held on, which was their argument for their positions, that it made them more electable, Nancy Pelosi would still be speaker in January.

Payback is a bitch, ain’t it?

It is best to remember what Harry S Truman said:

Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time.

I’d much rather have a Democratic majority in the House, but I think that they are marginalized.

Let’s keep it that way.

What Emptywheel Said…

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This is how well Tim Kaine, former governor of Virginia, served the Democratic Party in Virginia

Fire Tim Kaine as head of the DNC.

Since Kaine has become head of the DNC, just in Virginia, we have had a Neanderpublican Governor and Attorney General, and lost 3 house seats, one of which had been held for decades.

Kaine is, of course, head of the the Democratic National Committee, hand picked by Barack Obama, because he is the sort of Democrat that Barack Obama loves, the type of Democrat that runs against the Democratic Party base.

How’s that whole cock punching hippies thing working, Barry?