Year: 2010

Economics Update

It’s jobless Thursday initial claims rose by 37,000 to a 464,000 (seasonally adjusted), worse than forecast, with the less noisy 4 week moving average rising by 1,250 to 456,000, though continuing claims fell by 223,000 to 4.49 million.

In real estate, the inventory of homes for sales has risen year over year, and existing home sales fell in June.

They will fall in July as well, since we are still seeing the tailing off of closings from contracts that were signed before the tax credit expired.

About the only thing that shows any hope in the housing market is that mortgage rates continue to fall, though they really running up against the zero bound.

How a Sewing Machine Works

I had to figure out how exactly this worked in 1982, when I borrowed my roomate’s sewing maschine, which he used primarily as a coffee table, and had to thread it and get it to work so that I could make medieval garb for an SCA event.

I thought that it was neat at the time, but I had since forgotten it.

I still think tht it is neat.

Click the pic for a slightly larger image.

[on edit]

H/t Roger Ebert.

World Court Rules Kosovo Independence Not Illegal

Serbia brought the case to them, arguing that the Kosavar declaration of independence was an infringement on the sovereignty of their country, and the court rules that such a secession is not against international law:

Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008 did not break international law, top UN judges have ruled in a non-binding decision.

The International Court of Justice rejected Serbian claims that the move had violated its territorial integrity.

Kosovo officials said all doubt about its status had now been removed, but Serbia’s president insisted Belgrade would never recognise the secession.

Kosovo has been defacto independent for almost 2 decades, so this won’t make much of a difference, but I rather imagine that ¾ or the rulers of African nations are sh$#@ing bullets right now, because the boundaries of those countries are arbitrary artifacts of a horrific colonial past, and it will likely encourage more moves toward redrawing those boundaries.

In the long run, such a move will be good for the people of Africa, but to the corrupt elites who rule most of these nations,* because stoking ethnic divisions in order to create power with a divide and conquer strategy is how many of these corrupt bastards stay in power.

A change to better drawn boundaries makes this more difficult, and thus would reduce their ability to rob their countrymen blind.

*Hell, the corrupt elites rule most of the nations in the world, including ours. See our own White House and Congress.
Again, true of most nations out there too, including ours, see the Teabagger caucus in Congress.
Yes, us too, OK!

Hungary Passes The Bank Tax

Hungarian parliament has passed a law assessing a ½% levy on banks assets.

Needless to say, the banks are having a conniption over this:

Domestic and foreign banks doing business in Hungary have complained about the tax as well. Erste and Raiffeisen, two banks based in Vienna that have branches in Hungary, estimate they would have to pay €40 million and €35 million, or $52 million and $45 million, respectively.

“This tax is a quick-win measure, and only that,” said Juraj Kotian from Erste Group Bank in Vienna. “It does not provide any sustainable support for budget consolidation.”

The European Banking Federation called for a “profound modification” of the tax, saying it was a discriminative levy that would cause losses at some lenders and hamper economic growth.

This tax, which includes a levy on insurance companies as well is raising hackles for the same reason that Malaysia’s imposition of capital controls was vociferously attacked during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, because the market participants are terrified at the thought that this might work.

After all, Hungary is a very small fish in the overall EU economy, so if this tax fails, the impact is minimal, but if it is successful, then you can see an explosion in such taxes, just as you saw nations ignoring the IMF and imposing their own capital controls following Malaysia’s relatively mild recession and quick recovery.

If this becomes a more general practice, then it starts eating into 7 figure banker bonuses, which is not what the bankers want.

My prediction is that this will shrink the finance industry significantly in Hungary, and with the generally bloated and parasitic industry cut down to size, the Magyar republic will outperform its neighbors.

My earlier post on the attempts by the EU and IMF to browbeat the Hungarians into being the bank’s bitches is here, and my advice to them remains the same: back away from joining the Euro and set about leaving the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

This is a Stupid Idea

Boeing is proposing a C-17 variant with a 4 foot narrower fuselage, the theory being that if it is too expensive to operate, this model will be a bit cheaper, though it won’t be able to carry (1) Abrams tank or (2) Bradley IFVs, though it could carry Stryker class vehicles.

Unless this is some sort of idea to get some more pork through the US Congress, this is a stupid idea.

While the reduction in takeoff weight, as well as an increase in installed thrust, it will still be outperformed by modern turboprops, and in terms of economy per ton mile, low wing commercial freighters will be cheaper to operate, as well as being about 50kts faster.

It just doesn’t make sense.

What BTD Says

There seems to be a push by the blue dogs and DINOS to try to make some portion of the disastrous Bush tax cut permanent.

Of course, most the Republicans won’t vote for it unless it keeps tax cuts for millionaires, and so it needs liberal Democratic votes to pass.

Well, the the blogger formerly known as Armando has this right, the best course of action absent some major concessions from the Blue Dog types is to do nothing, and let taxes go up, particularly the inheritance tax, which will pay for the loss of revenues this year in about 18 months if it returns to its old levels:

But it is not for progressive Dems. In short, to hell with Baucus and Reid on this issue, Progressives can get what they want by simply making sure nothing happens. They have the bargaining power now. Time to use it.

All that needs to happen for the taxes to be repealed is to do nothing.

Doubtless, the Obama administration will twist arms over this, since he promised people making less than $¼ million a year that he would not raise taxes, but he also promised to support a public option, to get us out of Iraq, repeal Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and have a serious look at torture and other war crimes by Bush and His Evil Minions.

I don’t see any reason for liberals in Congress to go out of their way to support Obama on bad policy promises if he won’t fight on good policy promises.

How Does Shep Smith Keep His Job?

I’m not suggesting that he is a bad journalist, but rather that is s frequently a square peg in Fox News’s round holes, as was the case over the past few days when he pointedly did not become a part of the baying pack of Foxholes.

I imagine that he must feel some days a lot like Oskar Schindler must have felt.*

In any case, here is a video of Mr. Smith saying that, “we did not and do not trust the source,” referring to professional bigot Andrew Breitbart.

H/t TPM.

*Yes, I know, Godwin’s Law.

Cry Me a F%$#ing River

The presidents of 2 of the big banks, Goldman Sachs’s Lloyd Blankfein, and Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan Chase were not invited to the signing of the financial reform bill, even though other bankers,chiefs of, “Citigroup, Bank of America, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley.”

They are reportedly fuming over this.

Considering what you folks have gotten from the taxpayers, and your vociferous opposition to any substantive reform, Mssrs. Blankfein and Diamon should count themselves lucky.

If I were President, I would have taken my inspiration from Vlad Tepes in dealing with these ingrates.

And Now the Truth Comes Out

And the Obama administration is now falling all over itself to apologize to Shirley Sherrod.

Not panicking in the first place, and getting the facts right would have been better, but I think that what happened is that they realize that they are now looking like a bunch of bed-wetting cowards.

The problem is not that they are looking like a bunch of bed-wetting cowards, it is that they are a bunch of bed-wetting cowards.

Not only is it bad policy, but it is bad politics, because, as Josh Marshall notes in his “Bitch slap theory of electoral politics, because it makes the voters think that, “Someone who can’t or won’t defend themselves certainly isn’t someone you can depend upon to defend you.”

I’m waiting for the the response from Stewart, Letterman, and Leno.

Olbermann Was Good This Evening, But He Was Not At the Top of His Form

I think that invoking L’Affaire Dreyfus was a bit over the top.

His refrain on Obama is that his administration is ill serving him, which IMNSHO, is profoundly is wrong.

As I am wont to say, the Cossacks work for the Czar.

Still, Keith’s advice to stop making nice is the right one, and his invoking the line from The American President, you know, the one that goes, “I was so busy keeping my job I forgot to do my job,” was a good bit.

But it doesn’t get my blood pumping like the older stuff, and I’m not sure if he’s changed, or I have, or maybe the times have changed. I don’t know which.

OK, This is Jim Crow Bigotry in Israel

No other way to explain this.

An Arab man in Israel, Sabbar Kashur, hooked with a unnamed Jewish woman in Israel, and told her that he was Jewish in a successful attempt get into her pants.

When she discovered that he had lied to her about his religion, she filed rape charges, and today, he was convicted of rape by deception and sentenced to 30 months in prison.

Men lie to get into women’s pants:

  • I’ll respect you in the morning.
  • I’ve never been married.
  • I’m a stockbroker.
  • This car is a loaner, my Porsche is in the shop.
  • It’s just heat rash.

Certainly, I do not think that what Kashur did is right, but it is clearly not criminal either.

I cannot see any reason behind the fact that the Israeli prosecutors and the Israeli judiciary pursued this as a criminal matter beyond bigotry.

The Kimberly Process is a Bad Joke

The process, intended to prevent the sales of diamonds that are mined by entities, largely guerrilla armies, who systematically violate human rights, better known as “Blood Diamonds.”

Well, the Kimberly Process has now allowed Zimbabwe to sell diamonds from its Marange diamond fields.

Not only has the diamond mining there been rife with allegations of human rights abuses, included killings and forced labor, but the proceeds go directly to support the cronies in Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF:

Zimbabwe has been denied formal approval for its Marange diamond exports since evidence began to emerge around 2008 that the military had overrun the area to take control of the fields and organize smuggling of diamonds across the nearby border with Mozambique. Human rights activists say they suspect that profits are being used to finance the political and military elite around President Robert Mugabe.

Seriously, any certification of diamonds by the Kimberly Process, or the World Diamond Council, are simply not credible.

Such a Good Idea For Obama and Clinton to Back Blanche Lincoln

The latest poll has Blanche Lincoln down 25 points to Republican John Boozma, but not to worry, Lincoln’s campaign says that their internal numbers have her down by only 9 points:

You know it’s hard out there for an incumbent Senator when she has to stave off bad news by releasing an internal poll showing her down by nine to her Republican challenger. But that’s exactly what Sen. Blanche Lincon (D-AR) has done, attempting to respond to yesterday’s poll showing her down by 25 points to Rep. John Boozman (R) with numbers of her own showing her losing by a lot — but not as much.

According to Lincoln’s numbers, Boozeman leads the race 45-36 with 18% undecided. A third party candidate draws 6% of the vote. The survey of 700 voters was conducted June 22-24 and has a margin of error of 3.7%.

The rule of thumb is that undecideds break for the challenger by at least 2:1, which gives us a 57-42 blowout, and the the average other polling shows Lincoln down by over 20 points.

This was foreseeable, but you know how it is, Washington insider and incumbent protection Über Alles.

Yet another reason not to give to the DSCC, they will doubtless waste money on her, and that is throwing good money after bad.

Curry Will Save the World

Case in point, it reduced greenhouse emissions from the digestive tracts of ruminants, like cows and sheep:

Curry spices could hold the key to reducing the enormous greenhouse gas emissions given off by grazing animals such as sheep, cows and goats, scientists have claimed.

Research carried out at Newcastle University has found that coriander and turmeric – spices traditionally used to flavour curries – can reduce by up to 40 per cent the amount of methane that is produced by bacteria in a sheep’s stomach and then emitted into the atmosphere when the animal burps.

Working rather like an anti-biotic, the spices were found to kill the methane-producing “bad” bacteria in the animal’s gut while allowing the “good” bacteria to flourish. The findings are part of an ongoing study led by Dr Abdul Shakoor Chaudhry at Newcastle University.

It also means that when you have lamb or beef curry, it’s already marinated.

Cowards.

When people talk about DFH* bloggers hating on the Obama they seem to think that its all about Obama being a pragmatist. It isn’t about his being a pragmatist.

It’s about his, and his people being abject cowards, who soil themselves when someone on the right wing shouts out a lie.

Case in point, Shirley Sherrod, USDA Georgia Director of Rural Development, who was just fired for a yet another deceptively edited video from professional bigot Andrew Breitbart.

You see, she gave a talk about how when she was working helping farmers, when the first white farmer came to her for help, the thought crossed her mind was not to help, because they were white, but she realized almost as soon as the thought hit her that it was wrong.

Well after excerpting 30 seconds out of a 45+ minute speech (see below), so that Fox News could go “Oh noes! N*****s are trying to take over America.”

The response of the Secretary of Agriculture was to fire her before any real facts came out.

I am with what Digby said:

“Her decision ‘rightly or wrongly” will be called into question” because some right wing hitman put out an edited tape that makes her sound as if her point is the opposite of what it is, so she had to be fired.

They are telling wingnuts everywhere that all they have to do is gin up a phony controversy (especially about a black person, apparently) and the administration will fire them so as not to shake confidence that they are “fair service providers.”

This is sheer cowardice.

This is what pisses people off.

Video after break

*Dirty F%$#ing Hippies.

Bloody Morons

So, the Senate, now that Byrd’s temporary replacement has been sworn in, but they got it wrong.

They extended benefits through November. You should have extended it only to October, and then jam up the Republicans when they vote against it just before the election.

I understand that Congressmen don’t like to be in DC in October of an election year, but being there to vote for an unemployment extension is the best campaigning that you can do.