Year: 2010

US Broadband is Now So Bad……

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That even in the phony metrics commissioned by the US incumbent carriers, the United States is no longer in first place:

The United States has lost the top spot in Nokia Siemens Networks’ annual broadband development index, the Connectivity Scorecard, to Sweden.

The Connectivity Scorecard is, as Stacey Higginbotham reports for GigaOM, a favorite measure of the telecom industry, since it paints the America in a particularly favorable light.

It’s gotten so bad that even when using the bogus metrics favored our the telco incumbents who took billions in government dollars and gave us nothing, we still cannot win.

It’s time to stop bribing the monopolists, and start actually instituting real regulations that require real performance.

Economics Update

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Well, if consumers are 70% of the economy, the fact that the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index numbers fell to a nearly 1 year low.

This, along with a falling consumer price index, which indicates that a deflationary spiral may be nearer than we would like, are not good news.

Additionally, notwithstanding heroic/stupid efforts to prop up the housing bubble, home builder confidence has hit a 15 month low.

On the brighter side, Moody’s survey of commercial real estate prices is rose in May, and the National Association for Business Economics’ latest survey of employers is showing that employers are looking to hire more than they were a year ago, though admittedly, that is not saying much.

I Really Cannot Wrap My Head Around this

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As much as I rag on the Washington Post, there is some reporting of real value amongst the dross, including Dana Priest, who, along with William M. Arkin, have published an extensive investigative report on the burgeoning world of the American security-industrial complex:

These are some of the findings of a two-year investigation by The Washington Post that discovered what amounts to an alternative geography of the United States, a Top Secret America hidden from public view and lacking in thorough oversight. After nine years of unprecedented spending and growth, the result is that the system put in place to keep the United States safe is so massive that its effectiveness is impossible to determine.

Basically it points to a picture of a state security apparatus run amuck, where there are so many players, generating so much analysis, from so many sources, that it is impossible to separate the wheat from the chaff, or as Glenn Greenwald notes:

So it isn’t that we keep sacrificing our privacy to an always-growing National Security State in exchange for greater security. The opposite is true: we keep sacrificing our privacy to the always-growing National Security State in exchange for less security.

(emphasis original)

More than ever, we need to ensrhine into the constitution something analogous to the the Swedish concept of Offentlighetsprincipen (openness), because right now all that our paranoia is generating is a massive trail of profiteers/contractors without generating much in the way of security.

It should be noted that reigning in this will not be easy. You can be sure that when the budgets are in jeopardy, the various wings of the state security apparatus will come up with scary stories to subvert any effort at real reform, and the current administration is terrified of being labeled, “soft on fillintheblank,” so they do not have the inclination to even bend the curve.

I’ll be going through the story, and the supporting material, to see if I have anything to add.

Worst Defense of Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner Ever!

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I’m with The Bloodhound Gang, on Banks,
Burn Motherf%$#er, Burn!

John Talbot is suggesting that Geithner’s scheme to save the banks is dependent on their ability to screw retail consumers and small business consumers:

And this is where defeat of the nomination of Elizabeth Warren becomes critical for Geithner. For Geithner’s strategy to work, the banks have to find increasing sources of profitability in their business segments to balance out their annual loan loss recognition from their existing bad loans in an environment in which they continue to recognize new losses in prime residential mortgages, commercial real estate lending, sovereign debt investments, bridge loans to private equity groups, leverage buyout lending and credit card defaults.

The banks have made no secret as to where they will find this increase in cash flow. They intend to soak their small retail customers, their consumer and small business borrowers, their credit card holders and their small depositors with increased costs and fees and are continuing many of the bad mortgage practices that led to the crisis (ARM’s, option pay deals, zero down payments, second mortgages, teaser rates, etc). American and Banking Market News reports this week that the rule changes in the financial reform bill may lead banks to start implementing fees that had essentially disappeared from the industry early in the new millennium, such as fees for not meeting minimum balance requirements on a checking account, or reinstituting fees for certain online banking transactions that are currently free or charging to receive a paper statement or to talk to a live teller as Bank of America’s CEO has recently proposed.

Let me be clear here. Mr. Talbot does not endorse this strategy, and he supports Ms. Warren as head of the CFPB, he is explaining what he believes the calculus of the Geithner/Summers axis.

So, he is saying that in addition to actual taxpayer funded bailout, he is saying that Geithner and Summers see a back door taxpayer bailout as the only way to save the banks.

The thing is that the costs here, if Mr. Talbot is right, are enormous.

Excessive bank charges, won’t just generate excess profits, they will also reduce economic growth and tax receipts, since consumer spending and small business is where growth comes from, and this is where they will be extracting their money.

I do hope that he is wrong, because for this to be their strategy means that we do have a bunch of Republicans in all ways that matter, running the White House economic policy.

My guess is rather less tinfoil hat.

I think that Geithner has never in his life thought outside of the “what is good for Wall Street” box, and that this, juxtaposed with what appears to be an antipathy towards women in the field,* has led to yet another one of his petty and self destructive vendettas.

At least that is what I hope.

If John Talbot is correct, then these Cossacks Republicans work for the Czar, who knows what they are.

*I do not think that Geithner, who has spent his entire professional career getting ahead by kissing up, has only come out strongly against two people that I know of, Elizabeth Warren and Sheila Bair, both of whom lack a Y chromosome.

The Latest Country to Ban the Burqa is……

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Syria.

No, really:

The Syrian minister of higher education has prohibited the entrance of veiled female students into universities and colleges throughout the country, news agencies reported Sunday.

Dr. Ghitath Barakat explained that the donning of face veils, which cover everything but the woman’s eyes, “opposes the morals and values of the academy”.

Barakat’s decree followed similar ones approved by a number of European parliaments, including Belgium and France.

Obviously, while Syria is a part of both the Arab world and the Islamic world, it is in a number of ways atypical. Its rulers are Alawites, who are not considered normative Muslims by Sunni or Shia, and the government is rather stridently secularist, it is the sole remaining Ba’athist regime, but it does provide an interesting counterpoint to European bans.

Shakespeare?

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The Sun Glasses Conceal the Tears

After using a non-existent word, “Refudiate,” in a twitter post, Sarah Palin compares herself with William Shakespeare, who she notes may have made up some words too.

In related news, it now turns out that Sarah Palin knows nothing about Alaska either, claiming that Kodiak is the largest island in the United States. (It isn’t, it’s Hawaii, aka the “Big Island,” where Palin lived briefly)

Oh for the day when she gets a few wrinkles, and fades into well deserved obscurity, so that I can put her on my list of They Who Must Not Be Named, but as she is still a political figure about which people speculate on her Presidential prospects, I do not feel comfortable putting my hands over my ears and saying, “I can’t hear you!”

Because the Banks and Insurance Companies Own Us

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Hungary has just broken off talks with the IMF and the EU, because the IMF and EU only want deficit reduction on the backs or ordinary people, so throw pensioners into the streets, destroy your healthcare and education systems, and raise the VAT, but whatever you do, don’t raise taxes on banks and insurance:

Mr Orban had intended to raise some half a billion euros (187 billion forints) via a new tax on banks and insurance firms. The IMF however said this “”is likely to adversely affect lending and growth.”

More subtlely, the EU’s Mr Rehn said: “Care will also be needed to ensure a stable environment for both domestic and international investors.”

Brussels and the IMF will be hoping a swift sharp spanking from the markets will chasten Mr Orban’s government, but the move will also unnerve investor thinking about the condition of economies across the bloc, particularly in eastern Europe.

The truth here is that the bailout package is more a bailout of western banks than it is of Hungary, which is why the EU and the IMF find it unacceptable that banks actually pay taxes in Hungary.

If I were the Hungarian PM, I would start drawing up plans to reverse Hungary’s commitment to joining the Euro, and start immediate preparations to exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and allow the Forint to float.

It is clear that the deal with the Euro is that if you join, you don’t just lose sovereignty to the EU institutions, but to French, German, and British banks as well.

A Foreseeable Result of Pandering to the US Nuclear Industry

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Now that the US deal to sell nuclear technology to India is pretty much a done deal, the Chinese are selling nuclear power plants to Pakistan:

China is expected to formally announce the plans to build the 650-megawatt reactors in Punjab province at a meeting in New Zealand of the Nuclear Suppliers Group – the 46 countries that dominate and try to control the world’s atomic trade.

The US has already voiced its disapproval before the meeting, which starts today, and will try to forge a consensus on updating the rules designed to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.

US officials say that the plan requires special exemption from the NSG, [Nuclear Suppliers Group] which China joined in 2004, as Pakistan has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and could, therefore, divert some technology to its nuclear weapons program or to another country.

China and Pakistan disagree, pointing out that the US set a precedent by sealing a deal to sell civilian nuclear fuel and technology to India in 2006, even though Delhi had yet to sign the treaty.

That someone would sell nuclear reactors to the Pakistanis in response to the US making a joke of the NNPT was pretty much a done deal, and a predictable consequence of this decision.

I made note of this some time ago, and when my predictions prove true, it implies a level of blatantly obvious that buggers the mind.

The original deal with India was all about Bush and His Evil Minions™ wanting to reward their friends in the US domestic nuclear power industry, US interests be damned, and the consequences are potentially disastrous.

We’ll probably see a few more blips on Isao Hashimoto’s animations.

Sorry, But the Numbers Do Not Work

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The USAF is looking at an air launched missile to intercept ballistic missiles during boost phase. (paid subscription required, but you can find a shorter version here)

Raytheon is pitching something called the Network-Centric Airborne Defense Element (NCADE), a, “two-stage missile with an extended-range Amraam solid-fuel rocket motor as the first stage, a separation joint, and a second stage with a divert attitude control system and guidance-unit electronics and an AIM-9X seeker.”

It’s unclear to me what the range would be, but an AIM-9X (Sidewinder) missile seeker head does give us an idea as to the maximum speed of the missile: about Mach 2.5, about 850 m/s, because of the hemispherical seeker head at the front of the missile. (see picture of AIM-9X forebody courtesy of Wiki)

Beyond that speed, the drag, to say nothing of the heat generated, would be excessive.

It’s why higher speed radar guides missiles have a conical or ogival nose cone.

Well, if we work with the basic information for the launch performance of a Minuteman ICBM, 2 Gs at launch, this gives you 42 seconds until the ICBM is flying faster than the interceptor.

In reality, the time for the ballistic missile to reach mach 2.5 would be less, as acceleration increases as fuel is burnt.

This is not a viable interception time unless you know exactly when and where the launch is occurring, and you are close enough to make the intercept within 30 seconds from launch, about 25 km.

Also note that the Minuteman is an old missile, and newer designs, such as the now retired LGM-118A Peacekeeper, flew out faster, and were ejected from the silos with an expulsion charge at a not insignificant speed, so the interception time is realistically far less than 30 seconds.

This really does not sound to me like a viable platform.

OK, This is Simply Despicable

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One of the conflicts between the Obama administration and Congress has been the Obama administration’s “Race to the Top” education program, where the Obama has insisted this program, an unproven experiment which consists largely of bribing state education departments to attack job security for teachers.

The problems is that Congress is using pay-go, and the money isn’t there for it, so Congress cut 15% from the program, which has led to veto threats.

Well, David Obey, who is now retiring from Congress, gave an interview about how he is leaving “discontented,” and he drops a bombshell.

When the administration protested, Obey told that they needed to suggest where the budget cuts would be made, and Barack Obama and His Evil Minions™ suggested cutting food stamps, apparently because people on food stamps are getting a “good deal”:

We were told we have to offset every damn dime of [new teacher spending]. Well, it ain’t easy to find offsets, and with all due respect to the administration their first suggestion for offsets was to cut food stamps. Now they were careful not to make an official budget request, because they didn’t want to take the political heat for it, but that was the first trial balloon they sent down here. … Their line of argument was, well, the cost of food relative to what we thought it would be has come down, so people on food stamps are getting a pretty good deal in comparison to what we thought they were going to get. Well isn’t that nice. Some poor bastard is going to get a break for a change.

I am used to this administration making me nostalgic for Richard Nixon, but I am now feeling nostalgic for Dick Cheney,and I don’t like this feeling.

At least Dick Cheney was honest about being an evil rat-f%$#.

Quote of the Day

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Kevin Drum’s take may very well be accurate:

Here’s the good news: this record of progressive accomplishment officially makes Obama the most successful domestic Democratic president of the last 40 years. And here’s the bad news: this shoddy collection of centrist, watered down, corporatist sellout legislation was all it took to make Obama the most successful domestic Democratic president of the last 40 years. Take your pick.

I’m a glass half empty kind of guy myself.

Deep Thought

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Victor Stenger, noted atheist, has come up with the following ad for London buses.

Speaking as someone who is religious, I wholeheartedly agree: science does fly you to the moon, and religion does fly you into buildings.

Whatever benefits an individual, or a society, might derive from religion, there are real dangers associated with people assuming that a supreme being sanctions their actions.

I would also add that the socialist critique of religion, that it is used to maintain the power of the powerful, Karl Marx said that, “Religion is the opiate of the masses,” is yet another concern.

I would argue that most of these problems are more an artifact of religion than they are of private and personal faith, and, interestingly enough, the majority of the founding fathers, including George Washington, John Adams, and Thomas Jefferson, would wholeheartedly agree on this point.

Ah, This is Obviously Some Strange Usage of the Phrase “Not an Aircraft Carrier” With Which I Was Previously Unfamiliar

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This is not an “Aviation Destroyer”
(Background)

The next generation of Japanese naval aviation will be the 22DH ships, which are the size of the Essex Class fleet carriers of World War II.

The kicker here is the fact that they are looking at deploying the F-35B STOVL fighter on the ship.

I understand why the Japanese are leery of saying that they have an aircraft carrier.

It makes them nervous.

Hell, it makes me nervous.

That being said, this is not a helicopter carrying destroyer.

In the Annals of Troubled Military Programs, This One Takes the Cake

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As I have mentioned a number of times that I spent some time working on the recovery and maintenance vehicle for the now-canceled Future Combat Systems (FCS).

Well, no matter how misbegotten, it appears that the program reappears with a different name a few years later.

Case in point is the replacement for the FCS, the Ground Combat Vehicle, GCV, which is different largely in only one area, it no longer needs to fly on a C-130, so the 20 ton maximum weight for shipping has gone by the wayside.

This is not surprising. After all replacing the 30 ton weight class M2/M3 with a vehicle with superior mobility and protection is difficult to do in ⅔ the weight of its predecessor, all while reducing the cost of operation, is a tough nut to crack.

It’s clear that they will be going with a remotely operated turret, and without the space for the gunner and commander and the turret penetration, it makes it rather simple to fix a rather prominent shortcoming of the Bradley, its inability to carry a full 9 soldier infantry squad.

So the Pentagon is are back to square, which means fighting the wheels/tracks war yet again, though it appears that the military is favoring a tracked vehicle.

The advantages of tracks are better off road mobility, better performance in an active city conflict, since it can go over a road block made from cars or trucks, and a wheeled vehicle cannot, and more volumetric efficiency, since the wheel travel is less, and you do not need to accommodate the swept volume of the wheels which pivot to steer.

The disadvantages are operating costs, noise, weight and speed on roads.

That being said, one huge advantage for tracks is that if your infantry fighting vehicle grows into a 70 ton behemoth, wheels just won’t work at all:

The U.S. Army’s chief of staff wants to put the service’s Ground Combat Vehicle program on a diet.

Gen. George Casey said he thinks the future replacement for the Bradley Fighting Vehicle needs to be much lighter than the estimated 70 tons program officials are projecting that the new GCV will weigh.
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“I keep saying, ‘Look, man, an MRAP [mine-resistant ambush-protected] is about 23 tons, and you’re telling me this is going to be 70 tons, which is the same as an [M1] Abrams. Surely we can get a level of protection between that, that is closer to the MRAP than it is the M1,’ ” Casey said June 7. “It’s not going to be a super heavyweight vehicle.”

It would also be unaffordable. I would suggest that if the army really needs a better vehicle, that it procures new-build/rebuilt Bradleys, with the crewed turret replaced with something like the CTI tele-operated turret, and with enhanced armor based on the non-homogeneous armor technologies developed for the M-1 Abrams and the original FCS program.

You would still probably end up with less than a 40 ton weight, and you would get the capability you need at a much lower cost.

Meanwhile in the somewhat less sexy areas of folding in a few drones and an advanced network-based radio called JTRS as part of what is now called the, “Brigade Combat Team Modernization, the House Armed Services Committee is cutting this because of poor performance and cost escalation.

Once again, it’s over budget, behind schedule, and not performing.

So on the little things, where the Pentagon knows what needs to be done, they are not executing, and on the big programs, they don’t have a clue as to what they want.

Count me in Barney Frank’s and Ron Paul’s corner. We need to slash military spending.

I would also add that we need to somehow or other put adults in charge of the procurement process.