Year: 2010

Federal Judge Rules Parts of Doma Unconstitutional

No Comments

The areas of the lawsuit were rather specific, and pertained only to couples legally married in Massachusetts, but the the fact that the judge, Joseph Tauro, ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, the Mass AG and GLAD brought separate suits, is good news.

I’m an engineer, and not a lawyer, dammit, but I think that part of the decision, where the judge found a 10th amendment violation, because, “federal restrictions on funding for states that recognize same-sex marriage violates the 10th Amendment,which, “declares that rights not explicitly granted to the federal government, or denied to the states, belong to the states,” is likely to be overturned.

Basically the 10th amendment has not been a big part of jurisprudence since some time in the 1930s, and runs in the face of precedent.

The second decision, in GLAD’s case, is based on the 5th amendment equal protection claims, which I think will go a lot further.

Still, I think that it’s heading to the Supreme Court, and that the decision will be overturned by a 5-4 majority.

If I were an attorney for the plaintiffs, I would be starting to suggest that some of the justices who have already made statements that pre-judge the outcome, most notably Scalia, whose public endorsements of bigotry have been longstanding, recuse themselves.

If you don’t start making a stink about these now, then they will be sitting on the bench with their minds already made up later.

Economics Update

No Comments

It’s jobless Thurdsay, and initial claims fell by 21,00 to 454000, which is still at least 100,000 too high for anything approaching a realistic recovery.

The less volatile 4-week moving average fell by 1250, and continuing claims fell by 224,000 to 4.41 million, though I am not sure if the latter might have been caused by the Senate delaying extended benefits.

Additionally, it looks like what Paul Krugman calls the “Invisible Bond Vigilantes,” still appear not to exist, because the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to 4.57%, the lowest mortgage rate since Freddie Mac started keeping track of the data in 1971.

Note that even with the banks giving away money, people are still not buying houses now that the tax credit is basically done.

Hoocoocanode?

In other less than surprising news, the Bank of England has kept its benchmark rate at ½%, basically zero, so apparently they don’t believe in the bond vigilante fairy either.

OK, the Federal Reserve is Freaking Out

No Comments

And no, I’m not talking about the non-existent inflation threat, I mean that they are great depression type deflationary spiral:

Federal Reserve officials, increasingly concerned over signs the economic recovery is faltering, are considering new steps to bolster growth.

With Congress tied in political knots over whether to take further action to boost the economy, Fed leaders are weighing modest steps that could offer more support for economic activity at a time when their target for short-term interest rates is already near zero. They are still resistant to calls to pull out their big guns — massive infusions of cash, such as those undertaken during the depths of the financial crisis — but would reconsider if conditions worsen.

Top Fed officials still say that the economic recovery is likely to continue into next year and that the policy moves being discussed are not imminent. But weak economic reports, the debt crisis in Europe and faltering financial markets have led them to conclude that the risks of the recovery losing steam have increased. After months of focusing on how to exit from extreme efforts to support the economy, they are looking at tools that might strengthen growth.

Let’s be clear about this: The Federal Reserve fetishizes two things, inflation fighting, and opacity.

The fact that they are leaking to the press about possibly engaging in additional quantitative easing (printing money) because the ‘Phants are playing “Dr. No,” is an indication that:

  • They really don’t want to do quantitative easing.
  • They are trying to kick Congress in the pants so that they engage in fiscal stimulus.
  • That they feel that more needs to be done.

They are seeing things, and I don’t mean the “audit the Fed” bill, that are scaring the hell out of them.

Timothy Geithner Can Bite My Shiny Metal Ass

No Comments

So, with all the talk of screwing the ordinary guy on the social safety net through Barack Obama’s Pete Peterson sponsored catfood commission, Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner still has the time to promise people who never worked a day for their money that they will pay less in taxes than the guy at McDonalds:

Obama administration will keep tax rates at levels that benefit job-creating businesses and limit taxes on capital gains and dividends, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday.

Interviewed on CNBC’s “The Kudlow Report”, Geithner said the intent is to extend and keep in place tax cuts that should benefit 95 percent of businesses.

“We’re going to make sure that we keep at 20 percent the existing rates on dividends and capital gains,” Geithner said. “We think that’s good policy.”

Call me a commie, but I think that people who work for their money should pay less, not more in taxes than the trust fund babies who haven’t lifted a finger for their lifestyle.

Economics Update

No Comments
Click for full size


Temp hiring surges

It looks like temporary hiring is very strong, up 19.6% year over year, which, in addition to contributing to my finding employment, should be a leading indicator for direct employment, though private “permanent” employment is still down 0.7% YoY, which runs counter to earlier data. (see chart pr0n)

We are also seeing falling rates of credit card delinquencies, which are down to an 8 year low, which could be seen as either a glass half full, that people are getting a handle on their finances, or glass half empty, with people continuing to deleverage, and flying into the “paradox of thrift.”

Finally, in an update from yesterday, when I discussed office vacancies, today, we see that vacancy rates in shopping centers increased in the 2nd quarter.

Why Aren’t The Dems Hammering This Every Day?

No Comments

Georgia Democratic Gubernatorial candidate, and former Governor, Roy Barnes, is now explaining to the voters that wingnut Republicans are more than poor stewards of the public trust, but that they they are actually an embarrassment to the people, and the state, of Georgia.

Some text from his ad:

It’s hard for industry to take us seriously when the Legislature attempts to outlaw stem cell research, passes bills about microchips in the brain, and talks about seceding from the Union.

………

We can’t bring jobs to Georgia with the rest of the country laughing at us.

An appeal to civic pride, reminding folks that these folks are f%$#ing nuts, and that we should be embarrassed that they win elections, is a simple and easily understood: They are laughing at you, not with you because of these clowns.

This is a message that can, and should, be hammered at every day until election day.

Why We are a Sick Nation

No Comments

I don’t mean mentally ill, I mean generally unhealthy.

A study has been done, and it shows that countries with more equitable wealth distribution are healthier, even amongst the wealthiest in society:

……

Links between bodily and economic well-being are far from straightforward. In the related area of socioeconomic inequality we’ve already become aware of unexpected influences through the work of Professor Richard Wilkinson of the University of Nottingham.

In his 2009 book The Spirit Level, co-authored with Kate Pickett, he summarised a raft of research all pointing in more or less the same direction. In countries where there is a big earnings gap between rich and poor, life expectancy is lower while mental illness, obesity and drug and alcohol abuse are all more common.

The real surprise is that it’s not only the poor who suffer. The population as a whole do less well if the gap is wider. The nations with the smallest wealth gap and the lowest incidence of health and social problems are the Japanese and the Scandinavians. The countries with, respectively, the greatest and highest are America, Portugal and Britain. The biological explanation for this is uncertain, but possibly mediated by the hormonal effects of perpetual anxiety about status and position, or loss of them. Economics affects health but not always as you might expect.

In our accommodating the insatiable desire of the people at the top for, “Another yacht to water ski behind,” we are shortening, and worsening, the lives of everyone in our society, both among the haves and have nots.

The economists or social scientists might have a more complex explanation for this phenomenon, but as for me, I will keep the lesson simple, “Evil is bad for you.”

A Bit of Windows Coolness

No Comments
Click for full size

Freeform Snip


Square Snip

The snipping tool comes with both Vista and Windows 7, and it allows you to take a “screenshot” of a portion of the screen, either as full screen, in a single window, a rectangle, or an irregular shape. (see pix)

It is legitimately a cool bit of stuff, and it comes from the least cool company on the planet, Microsoft®.

OK, Good News For Me

No Comments

The US Army is upping its order of ground penetrating radars for deployment in Afghanistan:

To counter the threat, the Army is nearly doubling the number of NIITEK-produced Husky Mounted Detection Systems in theater.

The main component of the Husky is ground-penetrating radar called the VISOR 2500. One of the enduring frustrations with IEDs in Afghanistan is that often components are nonmetallic and nonmagnetic, making them difficult to detect using conventional methods. NIITEK says the radar system allows soldiers to detect threats through the ground that metal detectors wouldn’t pick up.

The most recent contract, awarded June 2, cost the Army $106.5 million for the 76 systems to be installed on Husky tactical support vehicles, as well as for spare parts, maintenance support and training for soldiers.

Yes, I work there, and no, I am not going into any details about what I do there, but obviously this means that there is work to be done.

You Know, This Might Explain Why We Aren’t Seeing a Real Recovery

No Comments

US businesses have accumulated $1.84 trillion in cash and cash like assets, and they have essentially stuffed their mattresses with them.

So instead of investing in new plants and equipment, or in product or process improvement, they are holding onto cash, because they are concerned that the banks, the ones that we the taxpayers bailed out to the tune of trillions, will cut off their credit.

Economics Update

No Comments
Click for full size


CRE is not a pretty picture
H/t Calculated Risk

Not a good day for real estate.

We have an increase in the rate of mortgage delinquencies, as well as decrease in delinquent mortgages becoming current.

Additionally, in the world of non-residential real estate, office vacancy rates have hit a 17 year high. (See graph pr0n)

Outside of real estate, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non manufacturing index fell in June, though the number is still above 50, it’s 53.8 down from May’s 55.4, so it is showing slower expansion, not contraction.

On the brighter side, the bankruptcy filing rate in June fell from May’s level.

Well, sort of anyway. You see, June actually had about the same number of filings, but because June had 22 business days, and May, because of where weekends fell and the Memorial Day holiday, only had 20 business days, the rate for filing days was down by 10%.

I call bullsh%$ on that one.

People don’t file on a per business day basis, they do so over a period of time that is largely unaffected by holidays, and June has 1 fewer days that May.

Normally, I Do Not Give Investing Advice…

1 Comment

“I’m beginning to think these are regular storms,” he added, “and we have a sh%$#y boat.”

But this proposed strategy actually sounds good:

It has been a profitable first half for Contrarian Partners. Our core investment strategy remains unchanged: to mine the research produced by investment banks every six months to establish consensus trading strategies. Then trade against them.

…………

In general, though, the advice was reassuringly poor. The markets continue to reward us for listening to the experts – then doing the opposite.

Needless to say, the proposal is tongue in cheek, but the the truth is in there.

The degree to which the “Masters of the Universe” have missed every warning out there, largely because their excessive salaries and bonuses depend on missing warnings, is stunning.

If we were to take the top 100,000 bankers in the world, and send them to North Korean reeducation camps, and pay the DPRK a million dollars to house each one, both the DPRK and the rest of the world would be far better off.

H/t Barry Ritholtz.

Tin Foil Hat time

No Comments

I think that it is fairly clear by the way that Barack Obama has stacked the “deficit reduction commission,” so as to be a “very serious person.”

The two chairs, Erskine Bowles, and Alan Simpson, have both been long time advocates of privatizing and otherwise gutting Social security.

Well, we now have an oddity in statistical reporting, because the Annual Report of the Trustees of Social Security for 2010 has not yet been released.

This is the document that gives an expiration date on the Social Security trust fund, and normally, it’s released on March 31, 3 months ago.

The Angry Bear finds this odd:

I find this odd in the extreme, particularly since Social Security is front and center in the news with the ongoing meetings of the Catfood Commission with their strong suggestions that cuts to Social Security are definitely on the table. You would think that repeated delays in the release of this key Report would at least require SOME explanation and that someone in the media might be asking questions. But no like the proverbial tree falling in the forest no one was close enough to hear the sound. If any. Well the silence is deafening. The lead press item on the Social Security website is the news that Isabella is the number one name for baby girls this year. http://www.ssa.gov/ Which I guess is fascinating news for fans of the Twilight franchise but not quite satisfying for us data driven types.

I think that this is all a part of a desire to give cover to the “Cat food commission,”* so called because that is what seniors will eat if their proposals are adopted cover for their proposal.

I am not sure if the intent is to bury a good report, of if it is to release an alarmist report at the most opportune moment, but my money is on skulduggery.

*In the interest of health, I would suggest that people eat dog food, and not cat food. Cats because they are one of the few true carnivores, do not need the complex carbohydrates and fats that people, and dogs do. As such, dog food is better for you than cat food because it provides carbs and essential fatty acids. A dog can go blind if it is fed on cat food, but a cat lives just fine on dog food. The pnenomenon is known as rabbit starvation.

Better That They Piss on Each Other…

No Comments

Because when the ratings agencies are pissing on each other, they are not pissing on the rest of us:

In a report that could equally have been written about its own prospects, S&P credit analyst Emile Courtney laid out a grim picture for rival ratings agency Moody’s saying it costs would likely rise, margins fall and litigation risks multiply.

Moody’s short-term debt has been placed by S&P on its CreditWatch list with a ‘negative watch’ outlook, meaning there is a more than 50pc chance its bonds could be downgraded.

Seriously, we need to obliterate fix the ratings agencies, sooner rather than later.