Year: 2010

Hemlines Come Way Down, Stock Market to Follow

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The latest from the Paris fashion scene

The New York Times reports that hemlines are falling this season, by a LOT, and Calculated Risk reminds us that, “in 1926, economist George Taylor suggested the “Hemline Index”; he observed that hemlines moved with stock prices”.

We are completely screwed.

More after break:

OK, that’s not the real picture, here are some of the actual pictures:

OK, these are the real skirts, and yes, we are screwed:

And here are the models, who raise the universal question, “Who the f%$# pissed in your Cheerios to make you look so unhappy?”:

Another Navy Ship Building Program Has its Cost Soar

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The CBO looks SSBN(X), the successor to the Trident boats, and estimates that the cost will increase from $7.2 billion to $8.2 each:

The Congressional Budget Office is out with a new estimate of the Navy’s latest 30-year shipbuilding plan, issued in February. While that new plan reduces the total number of ships purchased between 2011 and 2040, and thus shipbuilding costs, CBO says the annual price tag is still much higher than the total shipbuilding funds the Navy has received in recent years.

The Navy’s new plan calls for buying 276 ships between now and 2040; the previous 30 year plan called for 296 new ships. Still, with the annual shipbuilding budget at around $15 billion (the average for the past three decades), the Navy can’t afford to buy all of those ships, CBO said.

We need to start with cost targets as the most important driving requirement for defense procurement programs, followed by schedule, and any other issues must be secondary, or this sort of cost creep will continue ad infinitum.

The GCV Looks Like the Troubled Child of FCS

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Yes, I know that this is a 1/24 plastic model

When the Future Combat System was canceled, it was done for cost growth, schedule slips, and concerns about a number of the technologies.

The army still feels that it needs a vehicle to succeed its Bradley, and so we now have the Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV).

Well, the military has begun the source selection process.

Here’s the kicker, they are expecting it to weigh 50 tons, as versus the 30-35T of the current Bradley.

There are some improvements, most notably the ability to carry a full 9 person infantry squad, but you could do that with the Bradley if you were to retrofit a remotely operated turret, as the current turret takes up about 1/3 of the usable internal space, you could fid a full squad.

With weight comes cost, fuel consumption, and, in the long run, fewer vehicles.

What’s more, it appears that the 50 ton IFV is actually a 70 ton IFV:

Two days before industry proposals were due, Gen. Peter Chiarelli, vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army, provided new details about the Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV) program, saying the new vehicle could weigh up to 70 tons, but only if the threat environment required it.

“We’re looking at a vehicle that ranges in weight between 50 and 70 tons,” Chiarelli said May 19 at the Army’s armor conference.

What he is suggesting is that in a high threat environment, and we know now that this means IEDs, not enemy tanks, you would bolt on armor to improve the survivability of the platform.

This is complete and utter bullsh%$.

If you add 20 tons to a 50 ton vehicle, it means that you have to size the propulsion, transmission, fuel stowage, etc. to accommodate that weight, which means that your 50T vehicle is going to get even heaver.

Otherwise, the vehicle at 70T will have the mobility of a motorized wheel chair.

Just go and fit the Bradley with the CTI 40mm remotely operated turret, and use advantages in non-metallic armor to improve the survivability.

You will probably end up at around 40T, so there would need to be a bit of an upgrade to the engine and suspension, but you will still save at least half the cost.

Once again, the US Army is well into a development death spiral.

X-51 Video Pr0n

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Well, the USAF has finally launched the X-51A Waverider to much self-congratulation, claiming it to be the first Mach 6 air breathing aircraft demonstration.

The thing is, it wasn’t for two reasons, the Australians got to Mach 10 on their tests at the Woomera range, and the test was a failure, with the engine appearing to flame out at Mach 5.

X-51 hypersonic scramjet test: Flameout at Mach 5? • The Register:

The X-51A didn’t fulfil that potential yesterday, however. Having lit up it burned for around 200 seconds, reaching approximately Mach 5 and climbing to 70,000 feet. According to a statement issued by Boeing (whose Phantom Works plant built the Waverider):

Something then occurred that caused the vehicle to lose acceleration. At that point, the X-51A was terminated as planned.

It’s possible to speculate that the flame in the Waverider’s SJY61 scramjet, built by Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne, simply blew out. Project officials are still happy with the test, and seem confident that they will be able to achieve the designed speed before running out of test craft – there are three more.

This may actually be more significant that the folks at the USAF/DARPA are letting on.

The real intended breakthrough for the X-51A was that, unlike the Woomera tests, it used a hydrocarbon fuel, it started on ethylene and switched to JP-7, rather than the hydrogen used in earlier tests.

If there are problems sustaining combustion with hydrocarbon fuels, this could be something that slows down the program a lot.

In either case, here is some video Pr0n.
Actual Launch Video


Computer Animation

This is Amazing

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Amazing, The Raven

10 Years ago, if you wanted to come even close to approaching something like this, you would have a team of hundereds, and a budget for a 6 minute short of something north of a million.

If you go to the film-makers channel, they have a “behind the scenes” video, and there are a remarkably small number of people doing this.

I see a fairly large number of computer controlled cameras, including variants/clones of the Stedicam, so it’s more than just CGI.

The ability to use computer controlled stabilized cameras means that you can setup and shoot scenes in an afternoon that would have taken weeks in the past.

According to one source, it was shot on a $5000 budget, which would have been impossible with conventional, non computer controlled cameras.

It reminds me of some of the work I do with castings, where tooling for a complex casting now costs less than $50K, while 15 years ago, in would cost something north of $½ million.

That being said, this is a great short, but I would be very dubious of it being any more enjoyable as a full length movie.

I think that adding character development and exposition would likely weaken the impact.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Bank of Florida – Southeast, Fort Lauderdale, FL
  2. Bank of Florida – Southwest, Naples, FL
  3. Bank of Florida – Tampa, Tampa, FL
  4. Granite Community Bank, NA, Granite, CA
  5. Sun West Bank, Las Vegas, NV

Full FDIC list

I would assume that these banks of Florida are all affiliated, but it’s still another 4 a 5 bank week.

(Sun West came in late, so I have updated)

So, here is the graph pr0n with trendline (FDIC only):

About Fracking Time

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Australia is suing Japan in the International Court of Justice over their whaling:

CANBERRA, Australia — Australia said Friday it will challenge Japan’s whale hunting in the Antarctic at the International Court of Justice, a major legal escalation in its campaign to ban the practice despite Tokyo’s insistence on the right to so-called scientific whaling.

My guess is that they will argue that Japan’s “research” is a fig leaf for a commercial activity.

The Australians are right, of course.

You Know, When a Republican Plagiarizes Barack Hussein Obama

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He loses the primary, even when his opponent is a Puerto Rican by birth, which, in the Republican party makes him a despised minority:

State Rep. Raul Labrador handily defeated Vaughn Ward 48%-39% in Tuesday’s Idaho primary, and will go on to challenge Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick this November.

Ward, the establishment favorite, had a six-to-one money advantage over Labrador, and had a heavy television presence while Labrador ran only radio spots. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin also campaigned for Ward in the closing days of the race.

(emphasis mine)

And I really love the fact that another of Sister Sarah’s anointed got pasted.

………

Ward also faced plagiarism allegations on his campaign Web site and in his speeches. Politico reported that Ward’s kick-off campaign speech in January closely mirrored that of President Barack Obama’s 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention.

He was also dinged by the Pentagon for appearing in uniform in a campaign ad, and was forced to take down the ad.

Truth be told, I’m not sure if Palin would have endorsed Ward but for the fact that his opponent was Hispanic.

There have been enough reports of Sarah Palin’s disdain for minorities, particularly Alaskan Eskimos and Indians to make one wonder about how she feels about non-whites.

Still, heh.

Well, Obama is In a Conundrum

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The Defense appropriations bill that recently passed the Senate has a (sort of) repeal of the discriminatory Don’t Ask Don’t Tell law.

It also has funding for the F136 alternate engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which the White House opposes, so now the Pentagon staff is throwing around a veto threat on this issue:

F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program: The Administration strongly objects to provisions of the bill which could limit the procurement of the 42 aircraft requested in the President’s FY 2011 Budget. The onerous restrictions impose unacceptable schedule and budget risks on the JSF program. While the Department believes the restructured development schedule is achievable, failure to achieve any one of the criteria would affect the procurement decision with significant impact on unit cost, production ramp, and TACAIR force structure. The Department’s F-35 procurement request is in line with independent manufacturing studies, risk review recommendations, and the FY11 request reflects an optimized production. If the final bill presented to the President contains provisions that would seriously disrupt the F-35 program, the President’s senior advisors would recommend a veto.

(emphasis original)

If Obama is looking for an excuse to kill DADT because of cowardice, this would be it.

If Obama really wants to repeal DADT this year, than he has a decision to make.

So, which is it, the lady or the tiger?

Warren Buffett Subpoenaed

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He was invited to speak before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, and politely declined, so now he has been subpoenaed to testify:

When Warren Buffett testifies before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission next Wednesday, it will be because he was subpoenaed. If you don’t know how a subpoena works, this one begins with capital letters, “YOU ARE HEREBY COMMANDED to appear and give testimony.”

As Buffett characterizes it, “This is an offer you can’t refuse.”

………

But ah, it was. Buffett could by then see the likely end of this argument. But he was also determined to stick to his belief that the “private interview,” followed by hearings, would neither be beneficial to anyone nor a good use of his time. So Buffett told Cohen in a phone call that he would not be volunteering to testify — and if that meant a subpoena was in the cards, let it happen.

The subpoena — that command in capital letters — came on May 25. But the continuing, urgent wish of the commission to avoid coercion was contained in an accompanying letter, also dated May 25, that “respectfully” requested Buffett’s testimony at a hearing on June 2 in New York City.

My guess is that the net effect here is that the board won’t get its private interview, and so won’t know what he intends to say until he testifies in public, which might make for some good theater.

On a more salient legal note, now that Buffet has been compelled to testify, he can say anything, and not be held liable for those statements, since it is compelled testimony, which might make it even better theater.

Personally, I think that Buffet should bring the Geico Gecko with him. (Buffet owns Geico)

Economics Update (Friday Morning Edition)

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Home sales up, but prices are down


And inventory is rising again

Yes, I know, I haven’t been posting this regularly.

Yesterday’s miss was due to thunderstorms.

In any case, yesterday was jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims fell slightly, by 16,000 to 460,000, which was worse than expected, with the 4 week moving average rising slightly, and continuing claims fell, though, as I frequently note, people who move from continuing claims to emergency claims fall out of that number.

We also now know that mass layoffs rose in April.

additionally, we are seeing more of that whole “paradox of thrift” thing, with personal income rising, but spending remaining flat, which implies that an increase in consumers buying crap that they really don’t need won’t be our economic salvation.

Also note that the US GDP in the 1st quarter was revised downward, to an annual growth rate of 3% from 3.2%.

I think that he Obama’s already anemic stimulus package is running out of steam.

In real estate, the flight from the Euro has pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to a record low, which, along with the recently expired home buyer tax credit, drove existing home sales higher, though inventories are increasing as well, and prices are falling once again, which implies that a resurgence in the housing bubble won’t be our economic salvation..

In terms of more general metrics, the consumer confidence index rose slightly, as did the Chicago Fed Activity Index, and the Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index.

I just wish that the PTB were as concerned about 9.9% unemployment as they are about a twitch in the DJIA that ran for about an hour.

Just F%$#ing Marvelous

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It looks like my extended unemployment benefits , as well as those of a few million wanting-to-be-working Americans, will expire as Congress rushes out the door to take their vacation recess:

The House of Representatives Friday was to vote on a reduced package of safety-net spending and tax measures that would raise taxes on fund managers, but it likely was too late to avoid disrupting jobless benefits for hundreds of thousands of Americans.

Democrats, who say the bill would lower the country’s 9.9 percent unemployment rate, had hoped it would clear Congress this week to ensure that jobless benefits and other safety-net provisions do not expire. But the Senate was set to leave town for a week-long break without taking action.

As a result, hundreds of thousands of jobless Americans will probably lose the weekly payments that help them cover their bills as they look for work in a sluggish economy.

Congressional wrangling has delayed such benefits at least four times in the past year. Democrats say they will restore the benefits when they return in early June.

To whoever is slow walking this, and to whoever is letting them slow walk this, “Go Cheney Yourself.”

Its a Death Trap, It’s a Suicide Rap

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Rupert Murdoch has decided that Times of London and the Sunday Times will go behind a pay-wall.

I generally think that this is a bad idea since:

  • People haven’t paid for content from news publications for over a century, it’s been advertising supported, with the cover/subscription price covering only a portion of the actual cost of printing.
  • Putting general interest content behind a firewall tends to remove it from the Internet consciousness, which drives subscriptions and ad revenue down. (See the New York Times‘ abortive attempt with their OP/EDs)

That being said, I think that Murdoch’s plans go way beyond a simple pay-wall, and straight into crazy town, because, as the New York Post, a Murdoch publication that I would like to see vanish into pay-wall obscurity notes, observes, the Times of London won’t just be going behind a pay-wall, they will also lock out the search engines almost completely:

The UK’s Times and Sunday Times are putting up search walls in addition to pay walls.

The papers, which plan to start charging users for access to their newly redesigned Web sites in late June, will prevent Google and other search engines from linking to their stories.

Although they are not the first papers to erect pay barriers around their content, the papers are going a step further by making most of their site invisible to Google’s Web crawler. Except for their homepages, no stories will show up on Google.

The papers are betting that loyal readers will covet access to scarce content. Critics say the move will make it tougher to attract new readers who discover content by searching the Web.

This isn’t just a misbegotten business plan, it’s an attempt to force payment for links, and it ain’t gonna work, at least not unless Murdoch can convince various legislatures to make linking illegal, a course of action that I find profoundly unlikely, since it essentially bans the web.

Once Again, the White House Does the Right Thing, When Forced To……

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And then they weaken it significantly.

In this case, the White House is now behind repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell this year, because it’s clear that it’s going to hit the floor of the House, and probably the Senate, and while they have been fighting against this behind the scenes, Obama and His Minions™ don’t want to fight against this in public.

The thing is, in order to get Obama’s tepid support, they have created a repeal of DADT that does not repeal DADT:

Discussions around what that repeal measure would include were ongoing as Levin continued to lobby his colleagues. But a couple concessions designed to pacify Gates were being considered: allowing the Pentagon to complete its study before implementation proceeded and potentially requiring a stamp of approval (e.g. a certification letter) from military leadership and/or the president.

But by the time repeal advocates were invited to the White House on Monday morning to be briefed on a new compromise, a third concession had been added. There would be no nondiscrimination mandate. In other words, even after the law is repealed, it will not be replaced at any point with a policy that explicitly states gays and lesbians are allowed to serve openly in the military.

So, the repeal of DADT is just putting the policy back in the hands of Barack Obama, who will doubtless delegate to Robert Gates, who appears to be the most hostile person to gays serving currently working in the Pentagon.

Not feeling hopey changey.

Why Senior Management at BP’s Should Be In a Deep Dark Hole

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The Crime Scene

Hours before the Deepwater Horizon exploded, representatives of Slumberger*, who had been called in to perform a “Cement Bond Log (CBL) ” test.

Slumberger, much like Halliburton, is primarily an oil services firm, though it’s rep is as the Cadillac of the service companies, and is, unlike Halliburton, considered to be highly ethical.

Well, they were getting ready to run the test, about 6 hours before the blowout and explosion, and they look at the numbers, and say shut down the operation now, and when the BP management says, “no”, they ask to be flown off, and BP refuses, so they call in a Slumberger helicopter to get the hell out of dodge:

BP contracted Schlumberger (SLB) to run the Cement Bond Log (CBL) test that was the final test on the plug that was skipped. The people testifying have been very coy about mentioning this, and you’ll see why.

SLB is an extremely highly regarded (and incredibly expensive) service company. They place a high standard on safety and train their workers to shut down unsafe operations.

SLB gets out to the Deepwater Horizon to run the CBL, and they find the well still kicking heavily,† which it should not be that late in the operation. SLB orders the “company man” (BP’s man on the scene that runs the operation) to dump kill fluid down the well and shut-in the well. The company man refuses. SLB in the very next sentence asks for a helo to take all SLB personel back to shore. The company man says there are no more helo’s scheduled for the rest of the week (translation: you’re here to do a job, now do it). SLB gets on the horn to shore, calls SLB’s corporate HQ, and gets a helo flown out there at SLB’s expense and takes all SLB personel to shore.

6 hours later, the platform explodes.

Note that we do have confirmation that this cement bond log test was never conducted:

BP hired a top oilfield service company to test the strength of cement linings on the Deepwater Horizon’s well, but sent the firm’s workers home 11 hours before the rig exploded April 20 without performing a final check that a top cementing company executive called “the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness” of the well’s seal.

A spokesman for the testing firm, Schlumberger, said BP had a Schlumberger team and equipment for sending acoustic testing lines down the well “on standby” from April 18 to April 20. But BP never asked the Schlumberger crew to perform the acoustic test and sent its members back to Louisiana on a regularly scheduled helicopter flight at 11 a.m., Schlumberger spokesman Stephen T. Harris said.

…………

Schlumberger’s Harris said the contractor was ready to do any such wireline tests, but was never directed to do so. The team had finished doing tests on the subsea layers of earth being drilled five days earlier and hadn’t done any work since, Harris said.

In fact, Harris said there was no time to get the company’s wireline testing equipment off the rig before it exploded.

So BP’s side of the story is that they hired the most expensive, top of the line, oil field services company out there to run a test, and never bothered to let them complete what they had paid for, and the time line is a bit different.

But what is clear is that Slumberger left, and they left their very expensive equipment in their haste to get off the platform, because they saw a disaster coming, and they could not stop it.

H/t Thom Hartmann.

*Full disclosure, one of my step-mother’s oldest and dearest friends was a Slumberger, yes, one of those Slumbergers.
†Basically, as they drill a well, they add fluid (mud) to balance the pressure so that it does not erupt out of the well head. When a well is “kicking”, it means that the pressure is not properly balanced and the oil/gas/water is blowing out the mud. See the Wiki.

I Need Help With a Prank

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Renovation of the door is called for

I need a group of people who know how to handle themselves around tools, and can look like they know what they are doing.

What I am planning to do is generate a false work order and then install revolving doors at RNC headquarters:

The departures began in earnest about two months ago, shortly after reports of the RNC spending nearly $2,000 in donor money at a nightclub called Voyeur West Hollywood, an establishment where “impromptu bondage and S&M ‘scenes'” are “played out on an elevated platform by scantily clad performers throughout the night.”

The heads have been rolling ever since, even in departments that had nothing to do with the controversy.

It’s been tough to keep track of the staff shake-ups. The party’s finance chief and deputy finance director were recently forced out, as were three members of the RNC’s communications team. Those announcements came on the heels of departures from the party’s chief of staff, a top RNC strategist, and Alex Castellanos, who was brought on to help shape the party’s message. All of this has unfolded since late March.

The party may want to consider revolving doors at RNC headquarters.

Well, I saw that bit of snark, and decided that it’s time to make it reality.

I want a crack team to go there, show up with a work order, and install an actual revolving door.

Yes, I am really serious here, or, at least I think I am.

Hey kids, let’s put on a show in dad’s barn with mom’s costumes!

My guess is that we will get caught, and likely arrested, but if anyone knows a producer for The Daily Show, we can probably get on that.