Year: 2010

Going Long on Fig Newton and Ice Cream Sammich Futures

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It appears rather likely that a bill legalizing, and taxing, pot will make it on the ballot in November:

Fourteen years after California decided marijuana could be used as a medicine and ignited a national movement, the state is likely to vote on whether to take another step into the vanguard of drug liberalization: legalizing the controversial weed for fun and profit.

On Wednesday, Los Angeles County elections officials must turn in their count of valid signatures collected in the county on a statewide legalization initiative. The number is virtually certain to be enough to qualify the initiative for the November ballot, according to a tally kept by state election officials.

………

The 10-page California initiative would allow anyone 21 or older to possess, share and transport up to an ounce for personal use and to grow up to 25 square feet per residence or parcel. It would allow local governments, but not the state, to authorize the cultivation, transportation and sale of marijuana and to impose taxes to raise revenues.

This last bit is particularly savvy.

By virtue of the gridlock in Sacramento, though this gridlock is a function of California voters and the initiative petition process in the first place, the state government is distrusted and despised, but by allowing local governments to license and tax, it would have the advantage of being an immediate benefit to localities.

Margaret and Helen Are A Treasure

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Here, it’s Helen Philpot, who suggests a classical solution for the problem that is people voting for Bart Stupak, the nominally Democratic anti-abortion grand-stander in Michigan.

By classical, I mean a really old classic, the comedy Lysistrata, which was first performed in 411 BCE:

Bart, if you want to reduce abortions, vote to fully fund family planning and comprehensive sex education. Otherwise, shut the hell up. We don’t care what you think about our wombs.

Women in Michigan should hang a closed sign across their hoo-hoo’s until Stupak is either voted out of Congress or grows a vagina of his own. I mean it. Really.

Brilliant!

If you have the money (I don’t), go to Matthew Saroff’s Act Blue Page, and throw a few bucks at Connie Saltonstall, who is challenging him in the primary.

Economics Update

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Click for full size

H/t Calculated Risk

The news in in real estate so far this week, with U.S. commercial real e3state prices rising for the 3rd straight month, though, as the Graph pr0n clearly shows, if you own commercial property, and you need to roll over your 5 year mortgage, you are still in a world of hurt, as you are at least 30% under water.

In residential real estate though, it was just plain grim, with existing home sales falling, though the snopocalypse might have something to do with that, and the number of homes for sale jumped by nearly 10%.

In more general economic news, the Chicago Bank of the Federal Reserve’s national activity index fells last month, which might also be snow related.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, prices fell in the UK for the first time on 6 months, indicating that the pressures toward deflation continue apace.

In currency, we have the problems with Greece pushing the Euro lower, while in energy, oil rose slightly, to $81.91/bbl, and the price of retail gasoline continues to climb, to $2.81/gallon, up about 80¢ from a year ago.

Google Redirects Google.cn to Google.hk

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So, they have essentially shut down their Chinese search engine and are instead redirecting traffic to their Hong Kong domain:

Google has shut down its Google.cn site and is redirecting users to Google.com.hk, where it will offer uncensored Chinese-language search services. The company will maintain a research and development organization in China as well as a sales office, it announced Monday.

“Figuring out how to make good on our promise to stop censoring search on Google.cn has been hard,” Google said in a statement. “We want as many people in the world as possible to have access to our services, including users in mainland China, yet the Chinese government has been crystal clear throughout our discussions that self-censorship is a non-negotiable legal requirement. We believe this new approach of providing uncensored search in simplified Chinese from Google.com.hk is a sensible solution to the challenges we’ve faced–it’s entirely legal and will meaningfully increase access to information for people in China.”

It’s the right thing to do, and, I think, the good long term business decision.

Obviously, the Chinese “Great Wall” firewall will still censor once you click on the links, but with Google.hk actually see the links.

Now, how about fixing your misbegotten auto-pagination “upgrade” on blogger?

Why the Religious Right Opposes Abortion

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Because the Talibaptists make good coin selling babies, and so they want to have a good supply of pregnant women, particularly white pregnant women, without options, so that they can cover a few medical bills, and then extracting fees from desperate parents:

American websites currently offer[ ] mouth-watering
incentives to would-be buyers. “Delivery within four months”, “Discounts of up to $19,000”, they proclaim. If it were cars they were selling this would not seem
odd, but it’s babies that are for sale – bright, smiling newborns to tempt the childless into parting with about £20,000.

There is no shame in treating babies like any other purchase in America, where the adoption industry is largely privatized… (“Why adoption is so easy in
America” Telegraph.co.uk 10/31/07)

………

The Brits have also rightly pointed to U.S. restrictions on birth control and abortion as a contributing to “marketable” infants in the U.S. The religious right’s imposed morality is perfectly partnered with those whose livelihoods depend upon the redistribution of children.

In May, 2007 Evangelical Christians organizations such as Focus on the Family and pastors from across the nation held a three-day summit in Colorado. members of to promote adoption via a media blitz.

While there are any number of people who do good work in adoption, there is a lot of money sloshing around, and it’s driving the way that business is done, and the Mega-churches and their ilk are taking their tithes, which keeps the pastors in SUV’s and business jets, I guess.

Barack Obama Signs Senate Healthcare Bill

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Is it an end?


Or is it a beginning?†


Joe Biden says, “It’s a fucking big deal.”

I think that it is clear that there is a lot more that needs to be done, and I am reasonably sure that Barack Obama won’t do much.

I think that he has to create the appearance of support on the side-car, because otherwise, he will have the every Democrat in House of Representatives out for payback, but beyond that, I think that he has his paper to sign, and he won’t do much beyond this.

His strategy, as it has been in finance reform, has been to buy off the market malefactors, and so I think that attempts to further improve the system, whether it is Grayson’s Medicare buy in, or Kucinich’s elimination of ERISA preemption will likely be opposed.

Of course, it will be sold as the, “time not being right,” much as he has done with the repeal of DADT, the ENDA, the EFCA, etc.

I would note that my predictive record sucks, and perhaps he will surprise me.

If this is all that Obama will do with healthcare, than we have just seen him make his own flight suit speech, but if he supports further improvements, then, as the fucking* Vice President of the United States accidentally said into a live microphone, “This is a big fucking deal.”

BTW, one of my predictions is coming true: when I said that the preening narcisists in the Senate would find a way to make the bill worse, for the same reason that a dog marks his territory, I was right, case in point, Jim Baucus claiming that there would have to be minor changes to the bill to accommodate Senate rules:

Senate Finance Committee Chair Max Baucus told reporters today that there may be “one or two” changes to the health care reconciliation bill, meaning it could be sent back to the House for another vote.

“Anything is possible. We’ve constructed this thing so well … maybe one or two but they’re so minor they’re almost not even worth mentioning,” Baucus said.

Any changes to the bill, even minor, will send it back to the House for another vote there before it can go to the president’s desk.

But it seems that either he got the face time on camera that he wanted, or someone threatened to disembowel him with a rusty spoon:

Late update: But Conrad now says he’s confident there won’t be changes.

“We’ve found additional precedent that supports our view that nothing is Byrd-able,” he said, referring to the Byrd rule on which legislation may be passed under reconciliation.

Kudos to whoever put a horse’s head in his bed.

*I consider myself to be a fairly profane writer, though mu rule is to %$# out my swear words, but fuck it, if the Vice President can drop the F-bomb today, than so can I.
†Yes, this T-shirt is for sale from Zazzle.com.

Not Enough Bullets

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Dennis Kozlowski, former Tyco CEO has filed a lawsuit against his former company for millions of dollars in retirement benefits:

Ex-Tyco International Ltd. Chief Executive Officer L. Dennis Kozlowski, jailed for stealing millions of dollars, wants a U.S. court to order the company to pay him tens of millions from his retirement account.

Lawyers for Kozlowski filed court papers in which they claim that Tyco breached its retirement agreement by refusing to pay him the lump sum he has demanded. As of October 2008, the value of Kozlowski’s retirement account was $75.9 million, according to the court papers, which are part of a 2002 lawsuit between Tyco and Kozlowski.

Kozlowski, 63, and former Chief Financial Officer Mark Swartz were convicted in 2005 of securities fraud, grand larceny and falsifying business records. The jury in New York State Supreme Court found they stole about $137 million from Tyco through unauthorized bonuses and the abuse of company loans.

Because, you see, in the world of the big players, going to jail from stealing from your company doesn’t mean you don’t get your golden parachute.

Seriously, can the just have the bailiff beat the snot out of him in open court?

Tyco’s defense, that, “A ‘faithless servant’ is not entitled to any compensation,” would sound fairly convincing to me, but I am an engineer, not a lawyer, dammit!*

*I LOVE IT when I get to go all Doctor McCoy!!!

Nuck Fow and Nuck FARAL

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Executives at NARAL and Now have said that they are incensed over the Obama executive order restricting abortion:

The president of the National Organization for Women said her group is “incensed” about the impasse-breaking deal between President Obama and a group of anti-abortion Catholic Democrats that seems likely to allow historic health-care reform legislation to pass the House later Sunday night, saying the planned presidential executive order “breaks faith with women.”

………

NARAL Pro-Choice America shared NOW’s objections. “On a day when Americans are expected to see passage of legislation that will make health care more affordable for more than 30 million citizens, it is deeply disappointing that Bart Stupak and other anti-choice politicians would demand the restatement of the Hyde amendment, a discriminatory law that blocks low-income women from receiving full reproductive-health care,” NARAL President Nancy Keenan said in a statement.

You know, it was clear during the primaries that Barack Obama’s commitment to reproductive rights was tepid at best based on his record in the Illinois State Senate, and senior executives at Planned Parenthood, NARAL, and NOW ignored this, and never pressed him on his record.

Of course, once he was the nominee, tepid and ineffectual support was better than that reproductive rights horror-show that is the Republican party.

That being said, being thrown under the bus was predictable, and whining now is just lame.

Party Line Vote

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Dodd’s weak tea financial reform passes the Senate Banking Committee.

Here’s hoping that the Barny Frank – slightly less weak tea – bill prevails in conference committee, though if the Dems were smart, they would use finance reform as a way to get the Republicans to vote for the fat cat Wall Street bankers, and then use those votes as a cudgel in November.

But that would require that Democrats find their spines, which I think is unlikely.

They do not realize that having a backbone is something that voters place a huge value on, perhaps even more than philosophy and policy.

That’s why the leading candidate in the Republican primary in Alan Grayson’s district is Alan Grayson, because voters vote for politicians with guts.

Fire Timothy Geithner Now

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We have a couple new developments, first was that Merrill Lynch told both the SEC and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that Lehman was cooking the books:

Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Reserve officials were warned by a leading Wall Street rival that Lehman Brothers was incorrectly calculating a key measure of its financial health months before its collapse in 2008, people familiar with the matter say.

Former Merrill Lynch officials said they contacted regulators about the way Lehman measured its liquidity position for competitive reasons.

…

he findings raise questions over what federal regulators knew about Lehman’s accounting and when they knew it. In the account given by the Merrill officials, the SEC, the lead regulator, and the New York Federal Reserve were given warnings about Lehman’s balance sheet calculations as far back as March 2008.

Former and current Fed officials say even in the competitive world of Wall Street, it is un­usual for rival bankers to relay such concerns to the Fed.

It takes an awful lot to get one investment bank to rat out another, the first rule of Wall Street is never tell the regulators, and and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, president Timothy “Eddie Haskell” Geithner, as well as the SEC, which was largely deferring to the NY Fed, decided to ignore it.

Actually, it’s more. Not only did Geithner’s Bank ignore the reports, it bought junk grade debt from Lehman in violation of the law:

As Lehman Brothers careened toward bankruptcy in 2008, the New York Federal Reserve Bank came to its rescue, sopping up junk loans that the investment bank couldn’t sell in the market, according to a report from court-appointed examiner Anton R. Valukas.

The New York Fed, under the direction of now-Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, knowingly allowed itself to be used as a “warehouse” for junk loans, the report says, even though Fed guidelines say it can only accept investment grade bonds.

Meanwhile, the Fed and Geithner both strongly oppose a congressional measure to authorize an independent audit of the central bank and its lending facilities. The provision passed the House but is under attack in the Senate, where Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) says he hopes to stop it.

Without an audit, the Fed is able to conceal the specifics of what it holds on its balance sheet. If the Lehman deal is any indication, the Fed is hiding billions of dollars in toxic loans on its books.

“The Fed legally is forbidden from taking such assets. There’s a legal requirement that the Fed’s assets be investment grade,” Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) told HuffPost. Grayson, who is the cosponsor of the Grayson-Paul Audit the Fed measure that passed the House, said the Lehman scandal shows precisely why such an audit is needed.

Seriously, he cheated on his taxes, he’s aided and abetted the pervasive accounting fraud at Lehman, and he’s still in the bank’s pocket.

I understand that his successor will face a filibuster, but please, fire him, and go with a recess appointment.

It doesn’t matter that he knows where the bodies are buried if he’s a part of the gang what murdered the economy, and he’s still working flashing gang symbols to Dimon and Blankfien.

An Unambiguous Good in the Healthcare Bill

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Assuming, of course, that it makes it past the preening narcissists in the US Senate, is the fact that it will finally stop paying banks to sell overpriced loans to students.

These loans are guaranteed by the US government, and now, only the US Government will make them:

Legislation hailed by supporters as the most significant change to college student lending in a generation passed the House on Sunday night.

The student aid initiative, which House Democrats attached to their final amendments to the health-care bill, would overhaul the student loan industry, eliminating a $60 billion program that supports private student loans with federal subsidies and replacing it with government lending to students. The House amendments will now go to the Senate.

By ending the subsidies and effectively eliminating the middleman, the student loan bill would generate $61 billion in savings over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Most of those savings, $36 billion, would go to Pell grants, funding an era of steady and predictable increases in the massive but underfunded federal aid program for needy students. Smaller portions would go toward reducing the deficit and to various Democratic priorities, including community colleges, historically black colleges and universities, and caps on loan payments.

Of course, there is a more general problem with the student loan program, which is that student loans, and federal student aid programs, when juxtaposed with the collusion of the top schools on tuition and financial aid, have led to the costs of higher education significantly outpacing inflation.

But that’s another rant.

Thanks for Reading……

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Well, for the third time in about 33 months, I have broken $100 barrier in my Google™ Adsense™ account, which means that at some time in April, I will get a bank transfer for something in excess of $100.

As I have noted, it does not amount to much compared to how much Mickey Kaus is overpaid, but I try to consider it to be found money, and as such, I will spend it on something frivolous.

I’ll probably blow it on a nice dinner out with Sharon.*

Please note: once again, that I do not vet, nor do I endorse any ad that appears on my site, and I reserve the right to mock both the ads that appear on my site, as well as the advertisers.

Also, please note, this should be in no way construed as an inducement or a request for my reader(s) to click on any ad that they would not otherwise be inclined to investigate further. This would be a violation of the terms of service for Google™ Adsense™.

*Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.

Eugene Robinson Is Wrong

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He takes the general case, and makes it too specific when he says, “Democrats discover the benefits of taking a stand on health reform.

The reality is that American voters favor audacity, even when the policies are things that they do not support, one need only look at Reagan and Bush, who achieved their popular support despite pushing policies that the American public generally opposed.

The route to electoral success is to tell the Republicans to go Cheney themselves, and then include things in the bill that jam them up with the voters when election time rolls around.

I Must Condemn Matthew Yglesias in the Strongest Possible Terms

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This is just evil

Simply put, while I understand and appreciate his desire tosay, “In your face,” to Republicans, who have now appeared to lose the vote, this over-steps the basic bounds of humanity.

Seriously man, you use the music of ABBA to chastise Republicans?

You do know that doing so is but one step away from napalming baby kittens!

Baby Kittens, do you hear me, Napalming Baby Kittens!!!!

You’ve done enough! Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you NO sense of DECENCY?

What I Did This Afternoon

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The Enola Gay


SR-71 Blackbird


A rear view of the Blackbird, illustrating how flat it is


The Boeing 707 prototype, the Dash 80, in the fugliest color scheme I’ve ever seen


Gemini capsule


Samuel Langley’s Aerodrome


Bell-Boeing XV-15 tilt rotor demonstrator


Concorde


Space shuttle prototype Enterprise


Spotted on the tail of an F-14, Felix the Cat from VFA-6

I went to the National Air and Space Museum Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center, located right next to Dulles Airport in Chantilly, VA.

Charlie’s Cub Scout Pack went there for an outing.

While is is a most impressive collection of aircraft, as a museum, it left me a bit cold.

Unlike the branch on the Mall in Washington, DC, this was basically just a shed full of aircraft, and the exhibits, such as they were, were basically just afterthoughts.

I enjoyed myself, but I would much rather go to the DC museum.

OK, The Weird Have Turned Pro: Tanker Tango Edition

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Yes, the Russkys are Proposing a 4 Engine Tanker

So, the Northrop-Grumman/EADS team has bowed out, and EADS CEO Louis Gallois has said that it is impossible for them to make a solo bid by the May 10 deadline.

This is not surprising, they would have to develop a plan to establish a manufacturing facility, reconfirm and/or create arrangements with suppliers, etc.

Well, the Pentagon understands that, and is willing to extend the deadline to allow for a bid from EADS:

The Department has received notification from EADS North America indicating possible interest in competing for the Air Force’s KC-X Tanker and we would welcome that. Consistent with our commitment to conduct a fair and open competition, the Department invites proposals from all qualified contractors and, if necessary, we would consider a reasonable extension to the RFP deadline. That is not unusual. In fact, a few recent examples include BAMS, VH-71, Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) II, LOGCAP IV, LCS, LPD-17 Repair Services, and FMTV.

So, it sounds to me like the USAF really wants to light a fire under Boeing with the prospect of some competition, because otherwise they know that the tanker will be both expensive and late without a the possibility of meaningful competition.

EADS has has not ruled out bidding if the deadline is extended (press release):

EADS will assess new situation on US Tanker Request for Proposal

Leiden, 19 March 2010

Yesterday the US Department of Defense (DoD) indicated it would welcome a proposal from EADS North America as prime contractor for the KC-X tanker competition. This is a significant development. EADS is assessing this new situation to determine if the company can feasibly submit a responsive proposal to the Department’s request for proposal (RFP).

And while this development is a positive sign that the DoD seeks competition, it does not address EADS’ underlying concerns that the RFP clearly favors a smaller, less capable aircraft, and that the additional combat capability offered by our system may not be fully valued.

An important prerequisite for our consideration of entry into this competition will be a significant extension to the period within which to prepare and submit a proposal. EADS welcomes the DoD’s recent statement which indicated a willingness to extend the timeframe. Though this is essential, it is only one factor in making a decision for EADS to compete. In the end, the company will only submit a proposal if there is a fair chance to win, after evaluating all relevant factors.

EADS is a global leader in aerospace, defence and related services. In 2009, the Group – comprising Airbus, Eurocopter, EADS Astrium and EADS Defence & Security – generated revenues of € 42.8 billion and employed a workforce of more than 119,000.

OK, I bet you have a question now, why did I say that this was weird?

After all, this appears pretty normal in the world of defense contractors angling for maximizing their chances at a Pentagon contract.

Well, the weird does not come from Boeing, nor does it come from EADS. Rather we are getting our dose of weird from the Russians, who are proposing that a modified version of their Ilyushin Il-98, called the Il-98, for the competition.

While I can see the aircraft being cheaper, low cost is what Russian aerospace has as its chief asset, I cannot see anyone going with a 4 engine aircraft, the operational costs would be higher.

Furthermore, were a Russian aircraft to get the contract, it would have the effect of reinforcing a world-wide spares and maintenance infrastructure for Russian civil aircraft generally, which would be bad for both EADS and Boeing, since this would make Russian aircraft far more competitive.

My guess is that this announcement involves a sick sense of humor and a bit of Vodka.

Or, perhaps they are trying to get a payment from Boeing not to bid.

(on edit)
My bad, the Russians will be offering a 2 engine based on the Il-96 to create the Il-98, so the economics might not be quite so bad, and given its Soviet origins, it may very well be able to operate off of less robust airfields, since Soviet designs typically have more/larger tires, and so lower ground pressure.

Still, this is just freaky.

This Time Google™ Adsense™ Serves Up Evil

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I saw this ad on my blog, and was not clear what it was about, so I clicked through (generally a no-no, but I’ve done it about 3 times simply because the ad made me wonder about what was behind it).

What is this an ad for? It’s an ad for ACTON Marketing LLC, of Lincoln Nebraska, and what they are selling is a method to get people to sign up for NSF (insufficient funds) overdraft protection.

Yes, those scummy fees on bank cards, and these scummy marketers have a program to try to browbeat people into explicitly opting into those programs, as is now required by law.

So, once again, I am getting advertisements from the dark side,

Please note: once again, that I do not vet, nor do I endorse any ad that appears on my site, and I reserve the right to mock both the ads that appear on my site, as well as the advertisers.

Also, please note, this should be in no way construed as an inducement or a request for my reader(s) to click on any ad that they would not otherwise be inclined to investigate further. This would be a violation of the terms of service for Google™ Adsense™.