Year: 2010

Russia Looks to Joint Venture With Chinese for Mi-26 Successor

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Proposed Mi-46

The Russians make the largest production helicopter in the world, the Mi-26 “Halo”, and they have been considering an updated helo in the same (humongous) size range for some time.

Now, it appears that they are looking to do a joint venture with the Chinese to develope a 20T payload class helicopter. (paid subscription required)

Seeing as how the helicopter originally flew in 1977, and has been in service since 1983, there is a lot of room for improvement.

Just updating the transmission to modern aluminum alloys in the transmission and going with a more modern rotor system would probably add about 10% to payload and range performance, but that would be an upgrade rather than a completely new design.

A completely new variant might be based on the canceled Mi-46, though that was about a 12 tonne class machine.

I think that the reason for a joint venture has more to do with a potential market, they want to sell to the Chinese, than it does to any real technical or development advantage that they might gain.

Death Spiral, JSF Edition

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It appears that the UK’s order of JSF’s may be reduced by as much as 50% because of cost and schedule issues:

The Ministry of Defence may be forced to halve its order for the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) at the next Strategic Defence Review, according to a report in the Guardian.

The UK had ordered 140 of the aircraft for use by the RAF and on the Royal Navy’s proposed new carriers, but the newspaper reports that “a consensus has emerged” that the number of fighters ordered is unsustainable. Delays and cost increases on the JSF programme are said to mean the MoD could be looking to order just 70 of the fighters.

Harrier and Tornado squadrons may also suffer further cuts, the report says, identifying a “huge shift” in spending that is being considered for the Strategic Defence Review following the next general election.

It’s really not surprising.

Given today’s fiscal environment, and the enormous cost of the JSF, it comes down to a choice of between buying the JSF for a military that lacks the resources to do anything with them, or cutting back and allowing the funds to go to things like ground forces.

Some More on the Pak-FA

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H/t Douglas Barrie at Ares

First, is that the wheels are large, and I would assume relatively low pressure, implying, as is consistent with Russian doctrine, that it is intended to operate from poorly prepared fields.

The second is that it has relatively small all moving vertical stabilizers, which implies to me that thrust vectoring might be a part of further development, though there was no evidence of such in the initial videos.

Also, the wheels were never retracted, but this is not a surprise on a first flight.

There is also what appears to be a not-particularly-lo IRST on the nose.

Also, if you look at the somewhat more detailed video, it appears that the leading edge of the leading edge extensions (a mouthful that). Aerodynamically, it appears to me to be rather similar to the leading edges of the inlets on an F-15, which pivot down for better pressure recovery at high angles of attack.

Also, lots of rivets on a closer look in the new video, which implies that this is, as I originally surmised, a demonstrator rather than a true prototype.

Urban Air Mule Demonstrates Hover

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Looks a bit Buck Rogers

So, the Israeli ducted fan cargo UAV concept has finally left the ground.

This appears to have validated the basic control systems, as well as the software.

It appears that the most likely route to success will be on an eventual autonomous ambulance (bottom pic), particularly since the ducted fan arrangement eliminates those pesky rotors which can strike buildings and people.

Here is my original post on this.

Russian R-77 (AA-12 Adder) Upgrade Tests are Complete

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Blah, blah, blah!

It appears that the upgrades involve significant changes (paid subscription required):

The upgraded R-77 is both heavier and longer than the basic missile. It weighs 190 kg. (418 lb.) rather than 175 kg., and is 3.71 meters (12.17 ft.), rather than 3.6 meters, in length, according to company data.

The increased range is at least in part due to improved aerodynamics. A company executive says the radome shape has been refined, while a “boat-tail” configuration has been introduced at the rear to help drag reduction. Adapting the missile to fly lofted trajectories would also increase the maximum launch range. The executive adds that the active radar seeker has been improved. The manufacture of the RVV-SD seeker is believed to still be Istok.

It also looks like they may be moving away from the unique lattice fins, so as to improve range, at the cost of a slight loss of agility, and the need for larger actuators to move these surfaces.

Considering that the IR guided R-73 (AA-11 Archer) already out ranges the Sidewinder for dogfight applications, this may be a reasonable trade-off.

A further development of the basic R-77 design, previously associated with the Article 180 designation, is also underway, though manufacturer TRV remains unwilling to discuss the program. It is likely that the missile’s signature lattice fins have been replaced with a conventional design, with further range improvements included. This is possibly based on the introduction of a dual-, rather than a single-pulse, solid-rocket motor.

With a weight of 190 kg, as opposed to the 152 kg, physics would seem to dictate that it would have superior range and terminal energy to the AIM-120 AMRAAM, even with the “egg crate” fins.

The use of a lofted trajectory may very well be something that can be retro-fitted through software, which might allow for significant improvements in range for the existing inventory.

I will suggest that this story seems to indicate that reports of a ramjet powered R-77M1 on Wiki are premature.

Report: Brazilian Military Prefers Gripen

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According to this report, the Brazilian President’s first choice, the Dassault Rafale, is actually ranked 3rd:

Brazil’s F-X2 fighter programme could be the subject of further delays, after a summary of the air force’s 30,000-page evaluation report was leaked to one of the country’s leading newspapers.

The Folha de São Paulo newspaper reported that the air force’s F-X2 procurement programme committee has ranked Saab’s Gripen NG as its first-choice candidate for the deal, initially for 36 aircraft, due to its lowest acquisition and operating costs. It is followed closely by Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Block II.

I think that part of this is higher level diplomacy, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva believing that closer relations with France are more important than those with Sweden (that’s a no-brainer), and his belief that allying with Dassault will provide more opportunities to the Brazilian aerospace industry.

The Rafale is certainly not the low cost solution, it’s low production numbers mean that acquiring the aircraft will necessarily be expensive, and the Gripen is ½ the size of its competitors, with ½ the number of engines, so it will be much cheaper to operate.

I would also note that, given Swedish requirements for austere field operations, it would likely be better suited to operating from some hole-in-the-wall air strip in the Amazon jungle.

F-35 Update

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H/t ELP Defens(c)e Blog

So, the F-35 B has finally engaged its lift fan in flight, (video below) which is a step toward, but considering the fact the aircraft flew only 10% of the scheduled test flights in 2009, I guess you take what you can.

The bigger news is about the F-35 C model, where a study has been released showing that it will be significantly more expensive to operate than its predecessors:

Moreover, NAVAIR estimates the total of 680 short take-off and vertical landing F-35Bs and carrier-variant F-35Cs, ordered by the US Marine Corps and USN, respectively, will cost $30,700 to fly each hour. This compares to $18,900 for the Boeing AV-8B Harrier II and Boeing F/A-18A-D, the aircraft types the Joint Strike Fighter will replace.

Although NAVAIR projects the F-35 will fly 12% fewer flight hours than the AV-8B and F/A-18A-D fleets, the agency expects the modern aircraft to cost as much as about 25% more to operate at peak rates, the briefing says.

The unexpected cost increases mean the F-35 “will have a significant impact on naval aviation affordability”, the NAVAIR document concludes.

Note that this is competing against an F/A-18 with 2 engines, and roughly the same level of installed thrust and weight.

In fact, it is more expensive to operate than the F-15 Eagle, which is significantly larger, but costs only $30,000/hour to operate and only slightly less than that of the F-22, which is nearly twice the size, and costs $44,000/hour to fly. (scroll down)

When the inevitable costs escalation is included, and part of the hourly cost is the amortization of the initial purchase, I think that the “smaller cheaper” F-35 will be nearly the cost of the F-22.

I do not consider this an argument for the F-22, just an argument for a 2nd tier that costs less (inflation adjusted) than an F-4 Phantom to operate.

The US has air dominance because it dominates the situational awareness in any potential conflict, which is done with things like advanced communications, AWACS, etc., not a plane that can break mach 1 in a vertical climb.

Lockheed-Martin’s response is that the study is “not definitive,” which is defense contractor speak for, “I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren’t for your meddling kids.”

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?!?!?!? I Agree With Ben Stein?!?!?!

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I must be wrong.

But Ben Stein, the most overrated intellect in America is saying that Goldman Sachs has been ripping off its clients, and that it is wrong:

That is, it, Goldman, has a legal duty to not take advantage of the people to whom it acts as a fiduciary. It also has that duty because of the way it presents itself to the world — with all of its leaders’ talk about the Goldman Sachs “culture”. They don’t present that culture as the value system of Louis “Lepkele” Buchalter of Murder, Incorporated or of Meyer Lansky or Bugsy Segal or The Purple Gang. They sell the company as a prestige house with solid, client-driven values. If they act to betray that trust, it’s illegal.

Either something is profoundly wrong with the universe, or Matt Taibbi and I are wrong about the squid.

I’ll go with the universe hiccuping.

I guess that Ben Stein gets to be right once a millennium, but don’t ask me when he was right in the 1900s.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!!

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. First National Bank of Georgia, Carrolton, GA
  2. Florida Community Bank, Immokalee, FL
  3. Marshall Bank, N.A., Hallock, MN
  4. Community Bank and Trust, Cornelia
  5. First Regional Bank, Los Angeles, CA
  6. American Marine Bank, Bainbridge Island, Wa

Full FDIC list

BTW, here it is in chart with a handy, dandy least-squares trend line:

[on edit]: Updated with late failure in Washington State and tweaked graph for readability.

Why US Broadband Sucks

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The Phone Company*

Let’s look at Maine, where the terminally incompetent telco Farpoint is aggressively lobbying against Maine accepting a $24.5 million grant from the federal government to build out broadband networks:

Last month, NTIA gave Great Works internet in Maine $24.5 million toward a fiber optic network. The grant is a classic public/private partnership for a middle mile project that includes, among others the University of Maine.

Fairpoint, Maine’s primary rural LEC, has objected to this “undue competition with the private sector.” This would be funny, given how Fairpoint has become the poster child for the failure of the private sector to deliver on its big promises to rural communities. But Fairpoint’s talking points have ended up in legislation filed by Maine State Senator Lisa Marrache (D-Waterville) and Maine State Rep. Stacey Fitts (R-Pittsfield). Despite the fact that middle mile build out will help companies like Fairpoint (while also helping their competitors), we get the usual ideologically-driven nonsense about how the public sector ought to know its place and leave the driving to the all-knowing and super-efficient firms like Fairpoint — assuming Maine’s rural residents like the prospect of waiting for a bankrupt company [Yes, literally. Farpoint went Chapter 11] to satisfy its creditors and bring them broadband.

While this money would improve access and service for everyone, it would make it easier for companies to compete against Farpoint, the incumbent, so they are fighting this tooth and nail, because their service has been so unbelievably horrible that they know that they will hemorrhage customers if anything near free and fair.

That’s what this is all about.

There is more money in locking out competitors than there is in improving service, so US broad band, driven by private interests, is slower, more expensive, less reliable, and less accountable.

Damn, sounds a lot like out healthcare system.

*The President’s Analyst, see IMDB and Wiki.

How About Paying Them More?

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Yawn, another day, another report saying that the dearth of US citizens interested in majoring in technical fields is a national security threat:

Sure, we’re all plugged in and online 24/7. But fewer American kids are growing up to be bona fide computer geeks. And that poses a serious security risk for the country, according to the Defense Department.

The Pentagon’s far-out research arm Darpa is soliciting proposals for initiatives that would attract teens to careers in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM), with an emphasis on computing. According to the Computer Research Association, computer science enrollment dropped 43 percent between 2003 and 2006.

Umm ………… Hello?!?!?!?

You are asking how to encourage people who have the proficiencies to go into a technical field to do that, as opposed to, for example, becoming a banker or a stock broker.

But, of course, like the Cylons, they have a plan:

The agency doesn’t offer specifics on what kinds of activities might boost computing’s appeal to teens, but they want programs to include career days, mentoring, lab tours and counseling.

Like that will work: Ignore the poor pay and benefits, and the fact that your barista at Starbucks® used to be in IT, but after he got laid off the last time, he couldn’t find another job, because he only knows C++, not C#, because being a computer programmer or an engineer is just so f%$#ing cool.

By definition, people who have the wherewithal to go into science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) are people who can count.

If you want them to take a technical major, you have to promise better pay and benefits.

Duh …………

Economics Update

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Worst post-Depression recession
H/t Economic Policy Institute

So, US GDP grew at a 5.7% annual rate in the 4th quarter, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Some points: First, 5.7% is a spectacularly good number, the best in about 6 years, second, I expect that as more data comes in, future revisions will be downward, third, much of this growth was from a low “deflator” number, basically meaning that the numbers were juiced by the extraordinarily low inflation numbers, and fourth, as Krugman notes, it was an inventory blip, with over half of the growth being restocking of depleted inventories, not real growth.

Even with this number, as the graph pr0n shows, we are still down from peak more than any other recession since WWII.

Still, the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers was up more than forecast, to 74.4, and given that consumer spending is most of our economy, it is a big deal.

As to energy and currency, the GDP numbers did what was expected, with the dollar strengthening, and the stronger dollar pushing oil down.

[on edit]
Just in, in 2009, wages and benefits rose the least since statistics began to be kept in 1982.

Funny Headline of the Day

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EU-funded think tanks defend their credibility

It’s not just that they are government funded, it’s the whole idea of think-tanks and credibility being juxtaposed.

Maybe the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, the Manhattan Institute, and of course the original wanker think tank, the Brookings Institution, have soured me on the whole concept.

I just see them as exercises in cronyism.

Think tanks have no credibility.

[on edit]
There are any number of advocacy organizations that do good things, but they aren’t think tanks, they actually work in the context of the regulatory process to get things done, rather than just crank out paper for whoever pays their bills.

A good example is Public Knowledge, where they spend a lot of time actually doing things like making arguments before the FCC on regulatory issues.

There are good people in think tanks, but they do their good work elsewhere.

Seriously, This is What is Wrong with America

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Ben Bradley’s wife, otherwise known as Sally Quinn, is a fixture in Washington, and Jamison Foser has a good rundown on just what exactly she is:

You cannot caricature Sally Quinn. Don’t even try. It simply can’t be done. No matter how hard you try to exaggerate her preening self-regard and utter frivolity, she comes right along and shows herself to be worse than you could possibly imagine.

Quinn — who gained fame when The Washington Post was forced to retract her false claim that Jimmy Carter’s national security adviser unzipped his fly during an interview — makes the extraordinary claim in her January 26 column that Carter lost his re-election campaign due to his failure to attend Washington dinner parties. Not only that — according to Quinn, Ted Kennedy ran against Carter because of it:…

She is a failed newspaper reporter (see above), a failed TV reporter, I saw her on the CBS Morning News in the 1970s, and a failed novelist, and is now a serial party girl and hostess.

As was noted some years back in Salon Magazine, “She would go to the opening of an envelope.”

Basically, she married into Washington, DC royalty, in the person of former Post Editor-in-Chief Ben Bradlee, and then did her best to become the queen bee of the Washington social circle.

So, what does this mean? It means that when she writes about why things happen in Washington, DC, it’s because they don’t kiss the ass of the party crowd:

  • Carter lost his bid for reelection, and got a primary challenge from Ted Kennedy, because he and Rosalynn didn’t go to the the Washington parties.
  • Watergate took down Nixon because he didn’t go to the the Washington parties, so he had no support from people like Sally Quinn.
  • The Republicans attempted coup masquerading as an impeachment investigation against Bill Clinton because he and Hillary didn’t go to the the Washington parties.
  • George W. Bush was bad, because, “The Bushes almost never went out and the president was in bed by 9:30, even when they entertained, which was rare,” so they did not go to the the Washington parties.
  • That Barack Obama is icky, because he’s making people work so hard that they do not have time to go to the the Washington parties.

Beginning to see a pattern?

I am beginning to pine for Madame la Guillotine.

Anti-Abortion Terrorist Convicted of Murder

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The Jury deliberated only 37 minutes before convicting him of 1st degree murder, which means that they basically voted to convict while waiting to get into the jury room:

In a trial that never became the referendum on abortion that some abortion foes wanted, Scott Roeder, a 51-year-old airport shuttle driver, was convicted today of murdering George Tiller, one the nation’s few physicians who performed late-term abortions.

The jury of seven men and five women deliberated for only 37 minutes. Roeder faces life in prison after being convicted of first-degree murder.

Roeder also was convicted on two counts of aggravated assault for threatening to shoot church ushers Keith Martin and Gary Hoepner as he fled Reformation Lutheran Church after murdering Tiller.

This guy needs to be prosecuted under federal statutes too, and locked up under the most severe restrictions possible at the SuperMax until he breaks, and gives up his accomplices, because it’s clear that they wound him up, and pointed him at tiller.

Russian PAK-FA Flies

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Here is a decent quality picture

The aircraft made its first flight at Komsomolsk-on-Amur, duration about 45 minutes, the Sukhoi’s air field near Russia’s Pacific coast.

Note that this is more of a demonstrator than anything else, and by way of comparison, the BAE EAP, the demonstator for the Eurofighter Typhoon, first flew in August 1986, but entered service in August 2003, a 17 year lag.

To the degree that I can get a look at the cockpit arrangement, and it’s a couple of times that I have paused the videos (below), it appears that the canopy has not gotten any sort of stealth treatment yet.

There also appears to be a fair amount of edge alignment.

This, along with the visible smoke trails from engines, implies to me that this is more a demonstrator than a prototype

The the 2nd video makes that fairly clear that they are staying with the straight inlets and widely spaced inlets of the Flanker and Fulcrum, , so I’m not sure how they keep RCS down. There might be radar blockers in the inlets.

Interesting, they retain the widely spaced straight through inlets of the Flanker and Forger. I wonder how they reduce the RCS, perhaps radar blockers in the inlets.

Also, it appears that agility is a larger priority, as it has a cranked delta wing, which tends to improve nose authority at higher angles of attack.

I wonder if they are operating under the assumption that sensor fusion and increased processing power will mitigate stealth going forward, or they may have decided that lowering RCS to improve jamming efficiency was a more economical path forward than going with extreme stealth.

H/t ELP Defens(c)e

On Paywalls and Newspapers

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Newsday got bought out by the Dolan family, the folks who own Cable Vision, and they promptly put the website behind a subscription wall.

Do you know how many people are willing to buy a $5 a week subscription to the Long Island newspaper?

Well, after 3 months, they have 35 subscribers, so I think that their newsroom outnumbers the web page subscribers.

I think that the folks at the New York Times are in for a world of hurt.

Their pay wall is a bit different, you get a few stories before having to pay, but what it will mean to folks like me is that I won’t link to them unless they have a big exclusive. It’s just not worth it to me.

As it currently stands, I do link to them frequently as a paper of record.

Now, I’m sure that the loss of the eyeballs of my reader(s) does not mean much in the scheme of things, but when their OP/EDs were behind a pay wall, they completely fell off the screen on the internet.

Economics Update

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H/t Calculated Risk

It’s what Atrios calls “Jobless Thursday”, and while the number of people filing for initial unemployment claims fell, it was less than forecast, claims fell t0 470,000, not the estimate of 450,000, the 4 week moving average rose, and the number of continuing claims fell by 57,000 to 4.6 million.

On a brighter side (above link) orders for durable goods did rise in December, as did orders for capital goods, and while the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s economic activity index of fell in December, the 3-month moving average rose.

Personally, I tend to place more credence in the transportation based indices, and so the fact that the Baltic Dry Index, an index of shipping costs, fell to a 3 month low, to be the thing that I would hold onto, which makes me bearish ………… Then again, I’m always bearish.

Since I missed the economics update yesterday, I should note that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee kept its benchmark Fed Funds rate 0.25%, effectively 0%, and while their statement was significantly more upbeat than last time, they are still signaling that the rates will remain low for some time.

Meanwhile, in real estate, Freddie Mac issued a report showing that mortgage delinquencies jumped in December, and new-home sales fell again in December, in yet another indication that the recent activity was an artifact of the tax credit, as opposed to any real market turn around.

One interesting data point, again from Freddie, is that the ratio of people cashing out from their houses to those lowering balances or rates hit an all time low, meaning that people were refinancing to lower their payments, and not using their homes as an ATM.

In the long run, this is a good thing, but in the short run, it runs headlong into the paradox of thrift.

In the more general world of finance and banking, we are seeing skittishness about things like the Greek financial problems, and so there is a flight to quality, which has increased demand for US Treasuries, which has driven the rate on the 1-month treasury to a negative interest for the first time in 10 months, interestingly enough, the T-bill auctions seem to indicate that it’s Americans who are fleeing to quality, as the last auction had robust demand, but foreign buyers seemed to be backing off, at least the foreign central banks.

In consumer debt, credit card charge-offs fell a little in December, which indicates that people are a bit more able to pay off their debt, though the fact that Chase had a “payment holiday” may be a large reason for this.

In the old standards of energy and currency, crude oil fell slightly, while the dollar hit a 6½ month high against the Euro, largely on concerns that Greece will go the way of Ukraine, the Baltic States, or Iceland.

Of course, since Greece is in the Euro zone, when none of the other nations were, that is where it gets pretty hinky.

Full FOMC statement after the break:

Press Release
Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: January 27, 2010
For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.

In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The Federal Reserve is in the process of winding down its Term Auction Facility: $50 billion in 28-day credit will be offered on February 8 and $25 billion in 28-day credit will be offered at the final auction on March 8. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted.