Month: April 2011

Economics Update

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So, the BLS is reporting that job openings rose rapidly in February.

Looking at the ratio of jobs to the unemployed (see graph pr0n), there has definitely been some improvement, but first, it’s still a pretty crappy number, and second, workforce participation is down, so this number is partially an artifact of that.

We also saw retail sales rise and a moderately good beige book from the Fed, though the former has partially been driven by increased gasoline prices.

What worries me, particularly with the deficit cutting fever out there, is the fact that Gallup Economic Confidence Index hit a low for the year.

So Obama’s Speech Was This Afternoon

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I’ve read it, and it was much better than I expected.

It is not what I would want in a perfect world, it’s pretty much a 3rd way center right prescription, though it was rather stronger that I expected.

He did not sell out Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security, and he did not hippie punch, and he framed the Republican plan as a transfer from poor to rich.

The fact that he actually presented a moral argument here stuns me.

My only problem here, and I agree with Paul Krugman:

I should probably say, I could live with this as an end result. If this becomes the left pole, and the center is halfway between this and Ryan, then no — better to pursue the zero option of just doing nothing and letting the Bush tax cuts as a whole expire.

This is clearly a first shot in the 2012 campaign, though I hope that is more than that.

His statements about needing reforms in the social safety net toward the end of the speech worry me though.

I’ll take what I can from him.

On the 150th Anniversary of the Start of the Civil War……

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Here is a good survey of the lies that southerners tell about the war.

In addition to the normal lies, like it not being about slavery, it also reveals that the in almost all the states in question, a majority of the population did not want secession.

Instead, the process was manipulated by the slave holders to get the desired results.

The closer you look at it, the more the myth of the noble lost cause looks like a slimy con game played by the richest people in the south on the average person in the south.

When Your Old Constitutional Law Professor Calls You Out…

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And you are President of the United States of America, you have really f%$#ed up:

More than 250 of America’s most eminent legal scholars have signed a letter protesting against the treatment in military prison of the alleged WikiLeaks source Bradley Manning, contesting that his “degrading and inhumane conditions” are illegal, unconstitutional and could even amount to torture.

The list of signatories includes Laurence Tribe, a Harvard professor who is considered to be America’s foremost liberal authority on constitutional law. He taught constitutional law to Barack Obama and was a key backer of his 2008 presidential campaign.

Tribe joined the Obama administration last year as a legal adviser in the justice department, a post he held until three months ago.

He told the Guardian he signed the letter because Manning appeared to have been treated in a way that “is not only shameful but unconstitutional” as he awaits court martial in Quantico marine base in Virginia.

I don’t think that Barack Obama understands just how profoundly repulsive his staunchest supporters find his support for torture to be.

I don’t think that Obama wants to be a torturer, but he is constitutionally* unable to challenge his subordinates who are, which does not bode well in budget negotiations with the Republicans.

*Pun not intended.

Oh Crap!

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The Japanese have just raised the nuclear alert level of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant to 7, the highest possible level, and only reached once before, at Chernobyl:

Japan is to raise the nuclear alert level at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant to a maximum seven, putting the emergency on a par with the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.

Nuclear safety officials had insisted they had no plans to raise the severity of the crisis from five – the same level as the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 – according to the international nuclear and radiological event scale.

But the government came under pressure to raise the level at the plant after Japan’s nuclear safety commission estimated the amount of radioactive material released from its stricken reactors reached 10,000 terabecquerels per hour for several hours following the earthquake and tsunami that devastated the country’s northeast coast on 11 March. That level of radiation constitutes a major accident, according to the INES scale.

This ain’t an attempt to corner the market on glow in the dark watches, this is serious.

Quote of the Day

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From a discussion thread on Matthew Yglesias post:

Jasper_in_Boston 1 day ago

Matt: the president’s rhetoric about the economy has been off key since, er, February 2009. This is nothing new. Instead of conservatives worrying that he’s a secret Kenyan Shariast, I think liberals should be worrrying he’s a Grover Norquist deep implant.

DonxWilliams 1 day ago in reply to Jasper_in_Boston

Not really — there are strong differences between Obama and Norquist.

For example, Grover Norquist thinks we have too many black people locked up in prison:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/04/08/MNVK1IS92I.DTL

Heh.

And Now the New York Times Condemns the Sellout

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Notwithstanding their coverage of the foreclosure crisis, and the malfeasance of the mortgage services, which has largely focused on the hardships of the well to do (unsurprising given the nature of the New York City real estate market), the editorial board understands that there has been fraud and bad behavior all around and they understand that proposed settlements are sellouts to the big banks that service mortgages:

Americans know that banks have mistreated borrowers in many ways in foreclosure cases. Among other things, they habitually filed false court documents. There were investigations. We’ve been waiting for federal and state regulators to crack down.

Prepare for a disappointment. As early as this week, federal bank regulators and the nation’s big banks are expected to close a deal that is supposed to address and correct the scandalous abuses. If these agreements are anything like the draft agreement recently published by the American Banker — and we believe they will be — they will be a wrist slap, at best. At worst, they are an attempt to preclude other efforts to hold banks accountable. They are unlikely to ease the foreclosure crisis.

………

But the gist of the terms is that from now on, banks — without admitting or denying wrongdoing — must abide by existing laws and current contracts. To clear up past violations, they are required to hire independent consultants to check a sample of recent foreclosures for evidence of improper evictions and impermissible fees.

The consultants will be chosen and paid by the banks, which will decide how the reviews are conducted. Regulators will only approve the banks’ self-imposed practices. It is hard to imagine rigorous reviews, but if the consultants turn up problems, the banks are required to reimburse affected borrowers and investors as “appropriate.” It is apparently up to the banks to decide what is appropriate.

While it appears that the OCC, which has a history of acting on behalf of the finance industry rather than the public,has been at the core of the most egregious giveaways, it is also clear that the most of the machinery of the federal government, at least those portions directed by Ben Bernanke and Timothy Geithner, are doing their level best to ensure that there are no real consequences to what in a sane regulatory environment would be felonies involving people being sentenced to extended stays in “Club Fed”.

Instead, it increasingly appears that the Feds will be negotiating a sweetheart deal that will include provisions to make actions by the state attorneys general, and possible private torts difficult, if not impossible.

It’s nice that the “paper of record” has finally noticed this.  People like Yves Smith have been screaming about this for months.

Jon Stewart Says It All…

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There Should be a Nobel Prize for This!

I really wish that I had half his wit.

I guess that this bit of genius is all about the fact that they are dealing with a very real sadness:  Glen Beck could make their writing a lot easier. 

When Beck was on a roll, they could finish writing the script by lunch, and adjourn to a coke infused orgy with transsexual prostitutes in the afternoon.

Or maybe they just played games on their iPhones in the afternoon.

We Are Officially a 3rd World Nation

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We have now become a place where 1st world nations send their manufacturing to in order to avoid regulation.

Case in point, Ikea’s factory in Virginia pays ⅓ as much and engages in policies at its US plant that are scandalous in Sweden:

When home furnishing giant Ikea selected this fraying blue-collar city to build its first U.S. factory, residents couldn’t believe their good fortune.

Beloved by consumers worldwide for its stylish and affordable furniture, the Swedish firm had also constructed a reputation as a good employer and solid corporate citizen. State and local officials offered $12 million in incentives. Residents thrilled at the prospect of a respected foreign company bringing jobs to this former textile region after watching so many flee overseas.

But three years after the massive facility opened here, excitement has waned. Ikea is the target of racial discrimination complaints, a heated union-organizing battle and turnover from disgruntled employees.

Workers complain of eliminated raises, a frenzied pace and mandatory overtime. Several said it’s common to find out on Friday evening that they’ll have to pull a weekend shift, with disciplinary action for those who can’t or don’t show up.

………

Some of the Virginia plant’s 335 workers are trying to form a union. The International Assn. of Machinists and Aerospace Workers said a majority of eligible employees had signed cards expressing interest.

In response, the factory — part of Ikea’s manufacturing subsidiary, Swedwood — hired the law firm Jackson Lewis, which has made its reputation keeping unions out of companies. Workers said Swedwood officials required employees to attend meetings at which management discouraged union membership.

………

The dust-up has garnered little attention in the U.S. But it’s front-page news in Sweden, where much of the labor force is unionized and Ikea is a cherished institution. Per-Olaf Sjoo, the head of the Swedish union in Swedwood factories, said he was baffled by the friction in Danville. Ikea’s code of conduct, known as IWAY, guarantees workers the right to organize and stipulates that all overtime be voluntary.

“Ikea is a very strong brand and they lean on some kind of good Swedishness in their business profile. That becomes a complication when they act like they do in the United States,” said Sjoo. “For us, it’s a huge problem.”

Laborers in Swedwood plants in Sweden produce bookcases and tables similar to those manufactured in Danville. The big difference is that the Europeans enjoy a minimum wage of about $19 an hour and a government-mandated five weeks of paid vacation. Full-time employees in Danville start at $8 an hour with 12 vacation days — eight of them on dates determined by the company.

Additionally, there are allegations of racism at the plant, claims, “That black workers at Swedwood’s U.S. factory are assigned to the lowest-paying departments and to the least desirable third shift.”

This sounds an awful lot like the textile plants in Bangladesh where the exits are chained shut, and workers die when a fire breaks out, doesn’t it.

You set up a factory, and you bring in local managers, with the local attitudes, and then you push them to meet difficult numbers, and surprise, they revert to the standard labor behavior that you see in south central Virginia, only worse, because they know that their bosses will not feel any blow-back, because they are thousands of miles away.

Sorry, But These Numbers for a Launcher are Too Good to Believe

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I smell snake oil, not LOX/RP-1

Elon Musk, is claiming some mind boggling figures for SpaceX’s new heavy lifter:

Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX, plans to build a commercial heavy-lift rocket that will carry more than twice the payload of existing large rockets at one-third the cost. That would lower the price of delivering cargo to low-Earth orbit to the long-sought, and so far mythical, $1,000-per-pound range, the company’s founder and chief designer announced today.

Speaking at the National Press Club in Washington, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the Falcon Heavy–made up of three Falcon 9 core stages powered by 27 upgraded Merlin engines and generating a combined 3.8 million pounds of thrust–will be ready for its initial test flight from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., late next year or early 2013.

So he is claiming that his launcher will have a cost per pound to LEO ⅙ that of existing systems, and that he can have it ready for launch next year.

If you look at the prices quoted, they simply do not make sense internally either.

A quick perusal of the Wiki reveals that the Falcon 9, which is basically the Falcon Heavy core less the strap on boosters, puts 9,900 kilos into LEO for 44 to 49.5 million dollars, while the Heavy will put 53,000 kilos in LEO for 55 and 95 million dollars.

How do you manage to put 5½ times as much payload up for only 10-90% more?  My guess is that you don’t.

The answer is you don’t, not unless you come up with a way to bend the laws of physics or of manufacturing.

The Falcon Heavy will have 30 engines, 9 on each strap-on, 9 on the 1st stage, and 1 on the 2nd stage, so even if ¾ of the cost of a launch (the number is typically well under half) would be those 30 engines (it’s probably less), the cost per engine would be on the order of 1¾ to 2½ million dollars each, which is very cheap.

I don’t see how these cost targets can be met.

Sikorsky X2 Wins Collier Trophy

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Click for full size

Demonstrator


Commercial variant


Assault and utility


Search and rescue


Attack

The award of what is arguably the most prestigious award in aerospace is well deserved.

They have validated that their advancing blade concept helicopter can work, and work without the workload or vibration issues that bedeviled its predecessor in the 1980s, and they have done so on a relative shoestring.

It appears to have most of the advantages, and none of the disadvantages of tilt-rotor technology.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!! (on Saturday)

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And here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Western Springs National Bank and Trust, Western Springs, IL
  2. Nevada Commerce Bank, Las Vegas, NV

Full FDIC list

And here are the credit union closings:

  1. Mission San Francisco Federal Credit Union, San Francisco, CA

Full NCUA list

 
Well, things seem to be slowing down, which is a good sign.

So, here is the graph pr0n with last years numbers for comparison (FDIC only):