Year: 2012

First Ron Paul, Now RuPaul

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Are politicking in New Hampshire:

Drag superstar and reality TV host RuPaul made an appearance on the campaign trail in New Hampshire on Saturday.

Looking spruce in an ice blue tailored wool coat and studious-looking, horn-rimmed glasses, the nearly seven foot tall “Supermodel” singer was “campaigning” in the state. He announced that his goal is to raise awareness that he is not Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas), and that he is not running for president. The latter piece of news was met by the assembled crowd with some disappointment.

The International Man/Woman of Mystery then issued a challenge to Ron Paul and all of the other Republican candidates before reminding the crowd, “You better vote.”

If he were in the debates, it would be one for the ages.

The oddest thing here is that if he were running for the Republican nomination, I think that it would actually make it a more reality based community.

We are living in very strange times.

The Euro Crisis Starts to Hit Defense Contractors

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It looks like Italy is having 2nd thoughts about its JSF purchase🙁paid subscription required)

The Italian government is ushering in a new round of defense cuts in which, for the first time, the fate of Rome’s participation in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program will be seriously threatened.

The newly launched defense review not only has sweeping implications for Italy’s defense ambitions but also rings in a further belt-tightening in Europe among countries that are just beginning to come to grips with the scale of their budget and debt problems. Spain, where a new conservative government is grappling with greater-than-anticipated economic troubles, may follow with budget reductions. France is also expected to scale back defense spending after presidential elections in May.

In Italy, much of the work on the military review remains to be completed. Nevertheless, a sharp reduction in the number of F-35s Italy will buy is virtually certain, military officials say. At least a third of the 131 fighters slated for procurement will likely fall under the budget ax, with some minority parties arguing for an outright program termination.

Rome is one of the largest international buyers of the F-35—after the U.K. drastically cut its procurement objective in its 2010 spending review. Italy plans to spend €13 billion ($16.7 billion) to buy and sustain both the F-35A conventional-takeoff-and-landing and the F-35B short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing versions, though it has not ordered any aircraft yet.

I wonder how people are going to start feeling about the austerity fairy fixing everything now that it’s defense spending on the block.

The folks who endorse austerity always seem to think that it’s just things like healthcare and the social safety net that need to be cut, and that somehow, the bloated derfense procurement programs all over the world will somehow continue apace.

I think not.

Well, What Do You Know, Another DoD Cost Overrun

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The Gerald R. Ford, the lead ship in the first new US carrier class in 35 years is seriously over budget:

The Navy has estimated a worst-case cost overrun of as much as $1.1 billion for the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, the service’s most expensive warship.

The carrier is being built in Newport News by Huntington Ingalls Industries under a cost-plus, incentive-fee contract in which the Navy pays for most of the overruns. Even so, the service’s efforts to control expenses may put the company’s $579.2 million profit at risk, according to the Navy.

A review of the carrier’s rising costs began in August after the Navy’s program manager indicated that the “most likely” overrun had risen to $884.7 million, or about 17 percent over the contract’s target price of $5.16 billion. That’s up from a $650 million overrun estimated in April, according to internal Navy figures made available to Bloomberg News. The worst-case assessment would be about 21 percent over the target.

I would suggest, given the record of the DoD, as well as the well documented issues with getting its new Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) catapult, that the worst case assessment is at least 10% below the final overrun.

Yes, Some of these Folks are Actually Guilty of Bad Things

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But it’s right to dismiss charges against all the kids that the cash for kids judges sent up:

A judge brought in to clean up after a “kids for cash” scandal has expunged every juvenile court case decided by a Pennsylvania jurist convicted of corruption.

Senior Judge Arthur Grim was selected almost three years ago to review juvenile court cases decided by former Luzerne County Judge Mark Ciavarella, who’s serving time in jail for his involvement in the corruption case.

As a result of Grim’s efforts, records have been expunged for more than 2,000 juveniles sentenced by Ciavarella.

Ciavarella and another ex-judge are serving federal prison sentences for sending juveniles to for-profit youth detention centers in return for money.

Grim called the handling of juvenile cases in Luzerne County a judicial process “run amok,” and he gave recommendations to prevent such renegade justice again.

Pennsylvania State Supreme Court Chief Justice Ron Castille said Thursday that Grim has suggested many reforms that require legislative action, but the courts have already changed certain rules to treat kids more fairly.

When the checks and balances fail so badly that judges manage to get kickbacks for sending kids to private prisons, and no one says anything for years, expunging every conviction is least that we owe them as a society.

Background here.

The Non-Farm Payroll Numbers Are Out

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And the numbers are good in an anemic sort of way, with unemployment (U-3) falling from 8.7% to 8.3%, and non-farm payrolls rising by 200K.

So how good is this?

Not very good, according to the Shrill One:

First, note that there are still about 6 million fewer jobs than there were at the end of 2007 — and that we would normally have expected to have added around 5 million jobs over a four-year period. So we’re 11 million jobs down — and we need at least 100,000 jobs a month just to keep up with working-age population growth. Do the math, and you’ll see that it would take 9 or 10 years of growth at this rate to restore full employment.

Alternatively, note that during the Clinton years — all 8 of them — the economy added around 230,000 jobs a month. As it did that, the unemployment rate fell about 3 1/2 percentage points — which is about what we’d need from here to get back to something that felt like full employment. Again, this suggests that we’re looking at something like a decade-long haul to have full recovery.

Not good enough.

Well, Now We Know Why Louis Freeh Is the Preferred Agent of Choice for a Coverup

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Because he is a thoroughly dishonest ratf%$#, and the tell on this is that he refuses to use email:

As Eric Falkenstein observes:

People who meticulously avoid email should not be trusted, because it is simply too calculating, as if they know they are regularly committing crimes. A phone conversation can always be disavowed, you just say you were talking about last weekend’s bar mitzvah.

If his behavior as MF Global bankruptcy trustee, where he is refusing to turn over information to regulators about where customer account money went, (He’s making a bogus claim that the evidence of theft is covered by attorney client privilige) is an indication, he’s going to be a little boy rapist’s best friend at Penn State, where he is in charge of the coverup investigation.

Between his incompetence and his corrupt hackery, it’s a wonder that anyone hires him.  It’s like hiring John Dillinger to be in charge of your bank’s security.  Bernie Madoff has more credibility.

Just Desserts

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You know, generally, I’m not in favor or murder. 

That being said, when I heard about this Chinese Tycoon’s poisoning, and I looked at the recipe, I thought, well, he had it coming:

Poisonous Herb Spices Cat Stew in Felonious Pot

By DAVID BARBOZA

SHANGHAI — There was one very disagreeable ingredient in the steaming hot pot of stew that may have killed a Chinese tycoon. And it was not the cat meat.

The police have detained a local township official on suspicion that he murdered the tycoon, a business associate who may have caught the official cheating, by dropping a poisonous herb into a cat-meat hot pot, a shared stew that is a local delicacy, China’s state-run news media reported Wednesday.

(emphasis mine)

I understand that they have different customs and dietary habits, but cat?

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

Another Very Nice Takedown

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I love it when economists mud wrestle, but a number of the conservative fresh water* economists, Kantoos and Tyler Cowen, have complained that Krugman is being mean about them.

I love Krugman’s response to this criticism:

So Alex Tabarrok thinks I treat everyone who disagrees with me as mendacious idiots, and Tyler Cowen says that I always demonize my opponents.

I plead innocent. I only treat people as mendacious idiots if they are mendacious idiots.

Seriously: I have some big disagreements with Ken Rogoff, but if you use the little search box up there on the upper right and enter “Rogoff” I think you’ll find that I have always treated him with respect. On the other hand, enter “Heritage” and you’ll find me pretty scornful — but with very good reason! And I always document what I’m saying.

Now, what about people like Cochrane? You need to bear two things in mind. First, he and his friends entered this whole debate by declaring that Keynesian economics of any stripe was total nonsense, “fairy tales” that nobody serious believes. Then they proceeded to make howling, basic errors. And I was supposed to respond politely? I’ve never gone ad hominem on them — but I’ve called nonsense and ignorance when I see them. So?

I think that this is a valid response, and fairly straightforward, and measured.

On the other hand, Brad Delong goes seriously medieval on John Cochrain, and ends with:

What do I see here? A bunch of overheated and largely false rhetoric. A bunch of apparently false claims about the way the world works. A bunch of false claims about pretty basic economic theories. Occasionally correct claims that are then–almost invariably taken back–by something that claims (for reasons I do not understand) to be a refutation.

Overall, it does not seem to me to add up to a coherent argument.

Kantoos, what else do you want me to do with this?

Seriously, it’s a very nice Fisking.

It also proves a point that Krugman is wont to make, that salt water economists can cogently discuss fresh water economics, but fresh water economists cannot cogently discuss salt water economics.

Basically, when salt water economists teach, they teach both theories, and fresh water economists only teach their theories, which is why we see things like the walkout from former Bush Administration Economist Greg Mankiw’s intro to economics class at Harvard (yes, technically a salt water school, but Mankiw is a fresh water economist) because they found narrow and parochial.

This for a bloody introductory survey course that should expose them to the full range of theories.

But I think that I’m ranting here a bit.

*If you look at schools of economics, those in the center of the country, (fresh water) on lakes and rivers, tend to be extremely conservative, either Austrian, or Milton Friedman, while those on the coasts (salt water) tend to be more liberal.

Jon Stewart is Right

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At about 3:30, but it’s worth it to watch the whole thing

You can make fun of Rick Santorum without having to resort to making ass juice/frothy mixture/Google jokes.

There’s simply way too much insanity even without Dan Savages bit of literary genius.

Case in point, he just said that the “American left” “hates Christendom”, because, among other things, they think that the Crusades were an aggression against the Arab world.

Because, the mass slaughter in Jerusalem, and the pogroms and murders that swept through Europe was all hunky dory.

On behalf of my ancestors, who were doubtless murdered and raped by your ancestors, go Cheney yourself.

H/t The Reality-Based Community, who asks the obvious question, “Is he going to endorse the Inquisition next, and expose Voltaire as an undercover jihadist and proto-Marxist?”

Seriously, I’m not sure if Santorum is simply bat-sh%$ insane, if he’s just used to saying this crap because it’s what College Republicans do to tweak people in order to get their juvenile jollies.

Truth be told, it doesn’t matter.  The end result is the same.

It’s Jobless Thursday

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Pretty good news today, with initial unemployment claims falling to 372K, a drop of 15,000, from last weeks (adjusted upward) claims, with the 4-week moving average falling to the lowest number since July 2008 (!), 373,250, with continuing claims falling, though emergency claims rose slightly.

Additionally, the ADP survey, (same link) indicates a 325,000 increase in private sector jobs, though I’ll wait for tomorrow’s NFP numbers for the official word.

We also saw the ISM’s manufacturing index grew strongly and the non-manufacturing index rose modestly.

All in all, it’s pretty good news, I’m just wondering how much government jobs have hemorrhaged over the past month.

Well, What Do You Know, the FDA Supports Antibiotic Resistant Microbes

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They have given up on attempting to regulate the massive overuse of antibiotics in livestock:

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) pulled a Scrooge move just before Christmas. The agency published an entry in the Federal Register declaring that it will end its attempt at mandatory restrictions on the use of antibiotics in animal agriculture. The agency isn’t advertising the shift, though: This news would have remained a secret if not for Maryn McKenna’s Superbug blog over at Wired. McKenna, who specializes in writing about antibiotics and their link to pathogens, caught the Federal Register notice.

This is a sorry end to a process that began in 1977 (!), but McKenna created an excellent timeline that traces the history of the issue back to the 1950s. In 2009, the Obama administration breathed new life into a moribund process because the top two Obama appointees at the FDA, Commissioner Margaret Hamburg and her then-deputy Joshua Sharfstein, strongly supported restricting antibiotic use in agriculture.

But despite Hamburg and Sharfstein’s many supportive statements, the FDA has only produced a draft set of “voluntary” guidelines. And, with this latest announcement, it looks like that’s as far as they’re willing to go.

The depressing thing, in addition to the fact that this practice creates “superbugs” that kill people, is that we know how much this would cost the consumer, based on the Danish experience, and it’s less than 10¢ a pound.

By way of putting this into perspective, antibiotics used at sub-therapeutic levels in feed accounts for 80% of all antibiotic use in the US.

Our feedlots are a petri dish for MRSA, antibiotic resistant E. Coli, etc.

This is Not a Sudden Case of Balls

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It’s just that, at least until November 2, Barack Obama is more scared of the Occupy movement than he is of the Republicans, hence his recess appointments today:

President Obama kicked off the election year aggressively, picking a fight with congressional Republicans by sidestepping the Senate to fill the top job at the government’s newly created consumer protection bureau.

He also filled three vacancies on the National Labor Relations Board, which referees labor-management controversies — a priority of his allies in labor unions.

The appointments Wednesday, which had been stalled in the Senate, came as Obama moved to make confronting Congress a central part of his strategy for reelection. His job approval rating remains low, but Congress’ standing is even lower — “as unpopular as Ebola virus” — as one administration aide recently put it. In a confrontation between the two, the president will have the upper hand, White House aides say.

Actually, the NLRB appointments might be more significant, because the Republicans had shut down the board for lack of quorum.

I don’t expect the CFPB doing much, because Obama was dragged into the entire idea kicking and screaming, and his closest financial regulation adviser, Tim “Eddie Haskell” Geithner, hates it, and with Elizabeth Warren effectively neutered by virtue of her running for Senate, which pretty much requires her to be in lock step with the Obama administration, I expect to see a remarkably passive posture from Richard Cordray.

To paraphrase Winston Churchill, Barack Obama will do the right thing, once he believes that he has no alternative.

Damn!

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Michelle Bachmann has dropped out of the Presidential race.

If Rick “Miss Malaprop” Perry drops out, as seems likely, I may have to start writing, because it’s getting to the point where the snark does not write itself.

John Stewart Goes Postal on Barack Obama

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Brutal!

John Stewart gives Barack Obama a righteous, and justly deserved, beat-down over the President’s signing of the “f%$# the Bill of Rights” indefinite detention defense authorization bill.

It’s remarkable how much eloquence he (and to be fair, his writers) gives to the absolute outrage through humor than the outrage expressed by other commentators.

If you want to show someone who doesn’t get why what happened is so wrong, this conveys it more succinctly than anything I’ve read from Greenwald, or Taibbi, or the Rude Pundit.

Stewart is a national treasure.

The Weirdest Sh*$ Out of Iowa

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A Santorum Salad, Really?!?!

Actually, the weirdest Santorum in Iowa.

Seriously, a restauranteur in Boone has christened their chicken salad a Santorum Salad.

I’m not sure whether or not this guy is aware of the neologism (first link) or not, but that chicken salad does look a lot like I imagine Santorum would look.

Yes, despite my complaints, I’m going to have to post about Iowa today, but this little taste of the surreal makes it feel a little bit better.

It’s Too Close to Call Between Mitt and “The Frothy Mixture.”

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They are still tabulating votes in Iowa, and it’s too close to call between Romney and Santorum,with Paul being a close 3rd:

Returns from 1,703 of 1,774 precincts showed Santorum with 24.6 percent, Romney with 24.5 percent and Paul with 21.3 percent. Santorum had 29,046 votes, Romney 28,928 and Paul 25,121.

It’s pretty clear that, no matter how it turns out, Mitt wins this.

Rick “The Frothy Mixture” Santorum has no funds and no organization, and he won’t play well in New Hampshire, and Ron Paul is … Ron Paul, so it’s now Mitt’s race to lose, regardless of how the next few thousand votes break.

Romney needed to lose, and lose big for someone to be in a real position to challenge him.

Then again, considering my record of prognostication…………