Year: 2015

Jeremy Corbyn Goes There

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He just (rightly, IMNSHO) accused Britain’s Chief of the Defence Staff General Nicholas Houghton of attempting to meddle in civilian politics:

British Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn accused the country’s armed forces chief on Sunday of taking sides in the hot button political issue of overhauling Britain’s nuclear weapons program.

Gen. Nicholas Houghton earlier on Remembrance Sunday, when Britain commemorates its war dead, said he was “worried” by Corbyn’s vow never to press the “nuclear button”.

Corbyn issued a statement expressing “serious concern” over Houghton’s statement, calling on Defence Secretary Michael Fallon to “take action.”

“It is a matter of serious concern that the chief of the defence staff has today intervened directly in issues of political dispute,” said Corbyn, who is opposed to a revamp of Britain’s nuclear weapons system, Trident.

“It is essential in a democracy that the military remains politically neutral at all times,” said the Labour leader.

Corbyn is right, of course, Houghton’s behavior is unacceptable in a democracy, particularly when juxtaposed with long time rumors of military preparations for a coup in 1974.

One hopes that Houghton will learn his lesson, and shut the f%$# up.

Canadian Defense Industry May See Immediate Benefit from F-35 Cancellation

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Specifically, Canada has two needs, to replace its tired F/A-18s. but it also needs to replace much of its navy, which is well past its “sell by date”.

It turns out that the money saved by cancelling the F-35 may well free up money to allow for new ships, which will have the effect of creating a net plus for the Canadian defense industry:

While Canadian firms stand to lose business with the country’s withdrawal from the F-35 program, its maritime industry is expecting a potential windfall from the change of direction in defense.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised to put more money into Canada’s ailing naval shipbuilding program, including any savings from selecting a cheaper alternative to the F-35 fighter jet. Maritime industry officials said that could mean more ships and more work.

Trudeau promised the shift in defense priorities during the recent federal election campaign. His government was elected Oct. 19 and took power Nov. 4.

The previous Conservative Party government had launched the National Shipbuilding Procurement Strategy (NSPS) in 2011. That outlined an ambitious CAN $30 billion plan (US $23 billion) to construct new vessels for the Royal Canadian Navy and Canadian Coast Guard. NSPS would see construction of 28 major warships and 116 smaller vessels.

Conservative Party Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who was defeated by Trudeau, had earlier dismissed the Liberal promise to spend more money on shipbuilding as unnecessary, noting that his government originally put enough funding into NSPS.

But the shipbuilding strategy has been dogged by concerns from industry. Defense analysts, the Royal Canadian Navy and the country’s Auditor General Michael Ferguson have all warned there is likely not enough money to build all the needed vessels.

Before the Conservative Party government was defeated, Defence Minister Jason Kenney acknowledged that the NSPS plan, supposed to build up to 15 replacement ships for the Navy’s frigates and destroyers, might actually only finance 11 vessels.

Trudeau may very well have backed himself into a win-win scenario for canada.

Chinese Begin to Market the F-35 Done Right

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The Chinese were at the Dubai airshow, and the manufacturer is aggressively marketing their FC-31 medium weight fighter:

China’s Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC) has stated plans to fly a production version of its FC-31 Gyrfalcon fifth-generation fighter by 2019.

Although reluctant to take questions, company officials also stated they are in negotiations with the Chinese government to offer the aircraft to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force, despite previous reports that the fighter would only be offered for export.

Speaking in Dubai, where the company is displaying a model of the FC-31 outside China for the first time as the company begins the export push for the Gyrfalcon, Li Yuhai, deputy general manager at AVIC, said the aircraft was demonstrating the “technological and management progress” of the program.

………

Peng said the aircraft’s primary armament would be the PL-9 short-range missile, the SD-10A medium-range air-to-air missile and small diameter bombs. He said the aircraft would be able to carry 2,000 kg (4,400 lb.) of weapons in its single internal bay and 6,000 kg (13,220 lb.) externally.

The company would not say which engine would power production aircraft but that it would be a “advanced medium thrust engine” producing 88.29 kN. (20,000 lb./9,000 kg) of thrust. The demonstrator aircraft is currently powered by the Russian RD-93 which powers the Mikoyan MiG-29.

What is notable here is that, because it does not carry the dead weight that the F-35 does, because it does not carry baggage associated with the STOVL F-35B.

Note the superior rear vision, and the fact that it has a single larger internal weapons bay, which provides greater capacity and flexibility, both of which are an artifact of not having to accommodate a lift fan.

Also, the wing appears a bit larger, probably because it does not have to shave weight to make vertical landings.

Also, the Klimov RD-33 engine has an 8:1 thrust to weight ratio, as versus the 6:1 ratio of the F135 because it does not have to carry around design features that are only needed for driving the lift fan.

Basically, the US Marine Corps requirement that there be a variant that has vertical landing capabilities is a large part of why the plane is broken.

The Chinese, in making what is a very similar aircraft, have avoided those pitfalls.

The Kunduz Hospital Bombing

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First, let’s be clear on one thing, the US Military has bombed hospitals in the past as a matter of explicit policy, so it is reasonable to assume that this was the case here:

“Bombing of Hospitals Called Routine.” That was the August 9, 1973, Newsday coverage of congressional hearings on “clandestine U.S. air and ground activities in Cambodia and Laos”:

U.S. commanders in Vietnam placed no restrictions on ground or air attacks against Viet Cong or North Vietnamese hospitals a Senate committee was told yesterday by several Vietnam veterans.

 In direct testimony and in letters, the veterans said hospitals often were considered targets rather than areas to be avoided as required by the Geneva convention on warfare.…

………

 In testimony on the hospitals, Alan Stevenson, a stockbroker from San Francisco and former Army intelligence specialist, said that while in Quang Tri province in 1969, he routinely listed hospitals among targets to be struck by American fighter plans.

………
Former Air Force captain general Gerald Greven said he personally ordered bombing raids against hospitals: It was policy, he said, to “look for hospitals as targets.”

This provides some context, and it’s pretty clear that bombing hospitals has been official military doctrine in my lifetime.

When one looks at who the hospital were treating, and when they were treated, it reinforces the suspicion that the hospital was targeted because of its role as a hospital:

On Tuesday, the Daily Beast noted that DOD had not fulfilled its promise to release the preliminary results of its investigation into the October 3 bombing of the Médecins Sans Frontières trauma center in Kunduz a month earlier.

………

One possible explanation may be that on October 24, ISAF Commander John Campbell ordered another inquiry, this one carried out by a higher ranking general from another command.

………

Today, MSF released its own report of the bombing.

The report is interesting because, from the start, it has been clear MSF had a pretty good inkling of why they had been targeted. It lays out how, on September 28, the patient base in the hospital shifted from being primarily government forces to Taliban forces (though there were also 26 children treated that day) — though all were subject to MSF’s requirement that no weapons be brought into the compound. About half the 130 patients in the hospital during the attack were Taliban.

Perhaps most interesting is this paragraph, indicating that by Wednesday September 30, MSF had concluded two of those Taliban patients were more senior Taliban.

By Wednesday, MSF was aware of two wounded Taliban patients that appeared to have had higher rank. This was assumed for multiple reasons: being brought in to the hospital by several combatants, and regular inquiries about their medical condition in order to accelerate treatment for rapid discharge.


I’m going to guess that one or both of these men were used to claim the hospital was operating as a command post, if not to claim it could legitimately be targeted.

Much later in the report, it describes Afghan forces searching the hospital as the evacuation started.

When juxtaposed with the fact that MSF had communicated with the military a few days prior to the incident and told commanders that there was no military presence, it further reinforces the suspicions that the hospital was deliberately targeted:

………

In Kabul, the group’s general director, Christopher Stokes, told reporters that the Pentagon had been in direct contact just days before the attack to ask whether Taliban militiamen were “holed up” in the Kunduz hospital compound and whether the staff felt threatened.

Stokes said MSF replied that there were no armed Taliban on the grounds and the 140-bed hospital was functioning normally.

“There was no following” dialogue from the U.S. military “saying, ‘We have different information. We are going to bomb you,’ ’’ Stokes said.

My sense is that the strikes were deliberate.

Of course, I’m sure that we will get the official Pentagon report sometime in 2017 absolving the military of all blame.

This is Not a Surprise

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Even in the ethically dubious world of charter schools, online charters seem to be dicey.

Now comes a study which indicates that online charters are about as effective as not going to school at all:

A new study on the effectiveness of online charter schools is nothing short of damning — even though it was at least partly funded by a private pro-charter foundation. It effectively says that the average student who attends might as well not enroll.

 The study was done by the Center for Research on Education Outcomes, known as CREDO, and located at Stanford University, in collaboration with the Center on Reinventing Public Education at the University of Washington and Mathematica Policy Research. CREDO’s founding director, Margaret Raymond, served as project director. CREDO receives funding from the pro-charter Walton Family Foundation, which provided support for the new research.

 CREDO has released a number of reports in recent years on the effectiveness of charters — using math and reading standardized test scores as the measure — which collectively conclude that some perform better than traditional public schools and some don’t. In its newest report, released this week, CREDO evaluated online K-12 charter schools. There are 17 states with online charter students: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin, as well as the District of Columbia.

 The study sought to answer this question: “How did enrollment in an online charter school affect the academic growth of students?” Academic growth, as mentioned before, is measured by standardized test scores for the purpose of this study, which evaluated scores from online charter students between 2008 and 2013 and compared them to students in traditional public schools (not brick-and-mortar charters). Here are some of the findings:

  • Students in online charters lost an average of about 72 days of learning in reading.
  • Students in online charters lost 180 days of learning in math during the course of a 180-day school year. Yes, you read that right. As my colleague Lyndsey Layton wrote in this story about the study, it’s as if the students did not attend school at all when it comes to math.
  • The average student in an online charter had lower reading scores than students in traditional schools everywhere except Wisconsin and Georgia, and had lower math scores everywhere except in Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin.


 Layton quoted Raymond as saying, “There’s still some possibility that there’s positive learning, but it’s so statistically significantly different from the average, it is literally as if the kid did not go to school for an entire year.”

(emphasis mine)

Fundamentally, the problem here is that many of the supporters of things like cyber-charter schools are autodidacts, the sort of people who would literally break into computer science lab in the dead of night to teach themselves about computers. (This is an actual example from the life of Bill Gates, a big charter supporter.)

People who are that aggressively self taught are few and far between, and there are simply not enough people who fit that mold (I don’t, for example) for the rapidly expanding rolls of internet academies, and those who could succeed with these institutions don’t really need them. They could learn anywhere.

BTW, this is also an indictment of MOOCs, (Massive Open Online Courses) which seem to be the latest fad in higher education.

I will note however that there are remote learning approaches that do work, most notably Open University in the UK, but these involve to use of tutors who actually have a significant amount of face time with their students, as well as face to face evaluations.

Of course those get in the way of profits, so in the charter and the MOOC world, these things are eschewed.

Henry A. Wallace, The Danger of American Fascism

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I just came across an OP/ED from 1944 by then Vice President Henry Wallace on the nature of Fascism, and what the face of American Fascism might look light:

  1. On returning from my trip to the West in February, I received a request from The New York Times to write a piece answering the following questions:
    1. What is a fascist?
    2. How many fascists have we?
    3. How dangerous are they?

  2. A fascist is one whose lust for money or power is combined with such an intensity of intolerance toward those of other races, parties, classes, religions, cultures, regions or nations as to make him ruthless in his use of deceit or violence to attain his ends. The supreme god of a fascist, to which his ends are directed, may be money or power; may be a race or a class; may be a military, clique or an economic group; or may be a culture, religion, or a political party.

  3. The perfect type of fascist throughout recent centuries has been the Prussian Junker, who developed such hatred for other races and such allegiance to a military clique as to make him willing at all times to engage in any degree of deceit and violence necessary to place his culture and race astride the world. In every big nation of the world are at least a few people who have the fascist temperament. Every Jew-baiter, every Catholic hater, is a fascist at heart. The hoodlums who have been desecrating churches, cathedrals and synagogues in some of our larger cities are ripe material for fascist leadership.

    4. ………

  4. If we define an American fascist as one who in case of conflict puts money and power ahead of human beings, then there are undoubtedly several million fascists in the United States. There are probably several hundred thousand if we narrow the definition to include only those who in their search for money and power are ruthless and deceitful. Most American fascists are enthusiastically supporting the war effort. They are doing this even in those cases where they hope to have profitable connections with German chemical firms after the war ends. They are patriotic in time of war because it is to their interest to be so, but in time of peace they follow power and the dollar wherever they may lead.

  5. American fascism will not be really dangerous until there is a purposeful coalition among the cartelists, the deliberate poisoners of public information, and those who stand for the K.K.K. type of demagoguery.

    6. ………

  6. The American fascists are most easily recognized by their deliberate perversion of truth and fact. Their newspapers and propaganda carefully cultivate every fissure of disunity, every crack in the common front against fascism. They use every opportunity to impugn democracy. They use isolationism as a slogan to conceal their own selfish imperialism. They cultivate hate and distrust of both Britain and Russia. They claim to be super-patriots, but they would destroy every liberty guaranteed by the Constitution. They demand free enterprise, but are the spokesmen for monopoly and vested interest. Their final objective toward which all their deceit is directed is to capture political power so that, using the power of the state and the power of the market simultaneously, they may keep the common man in eternal subjection.

  7. Several leaders of industry in this country who have gained a new vision of the meaning of opportunity through co-operation with government have warned the public openly that there are some selfish groups in industry who are willing to jeopardize the structure of American liberty to gain some temporary advantage. We all know the part that the cartels played in bringing Hitler to power, and the rule the giant German trusts have played in Nazi conquests. Monopolists who fear competition and who distrust democracy because it stands for equal opportunity would like to secure their position against small and energetic enterprise. In an effort to eliminate the possibility of any rival growing up, some monopolists would sacrifice democracy itself.

Wallace is generally consigned to the footnotes of history, except perhaps when it is noted that some of his staff were likely Soviet intelligence assets.

He does seem to have been rather prescient though.

H/t naked capitalism

This is Not a Surprise

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There now appear to be some strong statistical indications of ballot manipulation in the latest Turkish elections:

A statistical study of the voting patterns in Turkey’s November 1 general election found strong evidence that is “consistent with widespread voting manipulation”.

That was the conclusion of a paper released by assistant professor Erik Meyersson at Stockholm School of Economics entitled “Digit Tests and the Peculiar Election Dynamics of Turkey’s November Elections”, and released on November 4.

The result of the elections came as a shock as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s defied the almost universal polling consensus and won some 9 percentage points more than expected – just enough to rule alone, but not quite a constitutional majority.

Some have speculated that faced with external and internal instability Turks have turned to a strong leader to see them through uncertain times in what might be called a “Sultan complex”. However, drilling down into the voting statistics Meyersson concludes that Sunday’s result was not so much an AKP victory as a defeat for the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Action Party (MHP).

“As in last elections, much of the change in voting seems to have occurred among nationalist as well as Kurdish voters, with this election seeing a difference of priority among them. Whereas June’s election was HDP’s to win, this one appears to have been to a large extent the nationalist MHP’s to lose,” Meyersson said in his paper.

Meyersson concentrated on the differences between June’s election and this one, where that time AKP was the recipient of the shock and had its majority grip on power broken after HDP entered parliament for the first time.

“Plotting the difference in vote share between November and June, the AKP’s gain appears to come predominantly at the expense of MHP. In some other cases, the vote swing seems to be driven by voters in Kurdish provinces leaving the other main opposition party pro-Kurdish and left-leaning Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) for AKP,” says Meyersson.

………
The main statistical test the paper explores is the use of the so-called Benford’s Law that is a widespread statistical technique for spotting cheating in polls and has a big body of academic literature behind it.

The way it works is simple: in a fair vote the last number of the final tally for each polling station should be randomly distributed. As humans are very bad at generating random numbers if the vote count has been tampered with then this randomness is destroyed and a discernable pattern emerges.
………
Meyersson’s study finds a very similar thing seems to have happened last weekend. The analysis was complicated by the fact that some ballots only produced 300-350 ballot papers, which is too small a number to be a good statistical sample. To get round this problem Meyersson decided to use the June vote as the basis of the comparison for the randomness of the last number – but that also assumes the summer’s vote was free and fair.

Those caveats aside, the results are striking. As the chart below of the frequency of each of the appearance of the numbers from 0-9 in the last place of the final tally clearly show there are too few zeros in the AKP party vote counts and too many for MHP.  The same is true for HDP, but the number of zeros at the end of the tally for Republican People’s Party (CHP) were the same in both elections and conforms to the Benford distribution above.
………
Meyersson’s study finds a very similar thing seems to have happened last weekend. The analysis was complicated by the fact that some ballots only produced 300-350 ballot papers, which is too small a number to be a good statistical sample. To get round this problem Meyersson decided to use the June vote as the basis of the comparison for the randomness of the last number – but that also assumes the summer’s vote was free and fair.

Those caveats aside, the results are striking. As the chart below of the frequency of each of the appearance of the numbers from 0-9 in the last place of the final tally clearly show there are too few zeros in the AKP party vote counts and too many for MHP.  The same is true for HDP, but the number of zeros at the end of the tally for Republican People’s Party (CHP) were the same in both elections and conforms to the Benford distribution above.

This explains a lot.

It also means that Erdogan is likely to use even more extreme measures to remain in power the next time around.

I rather expect that we won’t see him leave office absent some sort of coup activity.

Not a pleasant thought for a NATO ally.

That’s Gonna Leave a Mark

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The Sith lord of academic journal publishing is Elsevier.

They charge thousands of dollars a year for subscriptions, jacked their prices in a way that makes Martin Shkreli salivate, and they have threated lawsuits to keep researchers from publishing their own research.

They are widely loathed in their field, and now the entire staff of one of their journals has resigned to start up and independent open access journal:

It’s really somewhat astounding just how absolutely hated journal publishing giant Elsevier has become in certain academic circles. The company seems to have perfected its role of being about as evil as possible in trying to lock up knowledge and making it expensive and difficult to access. A few years ago, we noted that a bunch of academics were banding together to boycott journals published by the company, as more and more people were looking at open access journals, allowing them to more freely share their research, rather than locking it up. Elsevier’s response has been to basically crack down on efforts to share knowledge. The company has been known to charge for open access research — sometimes even buying up journals and ignoring the open licenses on the works. The company has also been demanding professors takedown copies of their own research. Because how dare anyone actually benefit from knowledge without paying Elsevier its toll. And that’s not even mentioning Elsevier’s history of publishing fake journals as a way to help giant pharmaceutical companies pretend their treatments were effective.

Basically on the list of companies which really are pushing to get themselves declared “evil,” Elsevier has a prime spot.

And now even its employees are revolting. The editorial staff of an Elsevier journal have all resigned to go start an open access journal instead:

All six editors and all 31 editorial board members of Lingua, one of the top journals in linguistics, last week resigned to protest Elsevier’s policies on pricing and its refusal to convert the journal to an open-access publication that would be free online. As soon as January, when the departing editors’ noncompete contracts expire, they plan to start a new open-access journal to be called Glossa.

The editors and editorial board members quit, they say, after telling Elsevier of the frustrations of libraries reporting that they could not afford to subscribe to the journal and in some cases couldn’t even figure out what it would cost to subscribe. Prices quoted on the Elsevier website suggest that an academic library in the United States with a total student and faculty full-time equivalent number of around 10,000 would pay $2,211 for shared online access, and $1,966 for a print copy.

One of the editors who quit notes that he’d “be better off going to flip burgers” in the time he spent working for the journal, rather than accepting the tiny amount Elsevier pays him.

Note that the authors of these papers are not paid to publish.

In fact, in a number of cases, they pay to offset the cost of publishing.

And Elsevier is determined to suck the marrow out of learning, and dance on its bones.

Crap, the Fed is Going to Go all Neanderthal Now

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You see, we have pretty good news for October on the job front, which means that the Federal Reserve is now much more likely to raise rates:

Hiring at American companies shifted into higher gear in October, helping to lift wages and clearing the path for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

The 271,000 jump in payrolls reported by the Labor Department on Friday was much more robust than expected and suggested that economic growth had enough momentum to allow the central bank to begin its move away from the ultralow, crisis-level interest-rate policy it has been following for seven years.

Along with altering the landscape for policy makers in Washington and traders on Wall Street, the strength in the labor market, if it persists, is expected to shift the political debate as the 2016 presidential campaign heats up.

While there is still a possibility the Fed could hold back, the underlying solidity evident in the latest jobs report will strengthen the hand of monetary policy hawks who have long favored an increase in short-term rates. At the same time, it should reassure Janet L. Yellen, the chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, and a majority of her colleagues at the central bank that the economy can handle modestly higher borrowing costs without stress.

“It was pretty much everything you could ask for in a jobs report,” said Michelle Meyer, deputy head of United States economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “Not only was the headline number strong, but there were upward revisions for prior months, the unemployment rate fell and wage growth accelerated.”

I don’t know when the Fed will raise rate, but I am almost certain that when they do, it will be too soon.

The cultural imperative of central banks, including the Fed are such that they always err on the side of mindless inflation concerns.

I Care Not Much for a Man’s Religion Whose Dog and Cat Are Not the Better for It

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Abraham Lincoln said that, and a recent research implies that generosity and religiously are antithetical:

An argument often advanced for the encouragement of religion is that, to paraphrase St Matthew’s report of Jesus’s words, it leads people to love their neighbours as themselves. That would be a powerful point were it true. But is it? This was the question Jean Decety, a developmental neuroscientist at the University of Chicago, asked in a study just published in Current Biology.

Dr Decety is not the first to wonder, in a scientific way, about the connection between religion and altruism. He is, though, one of the first to do it without recourse to that standard but peculiar laboratory animal beloved of psychologists, the undergraduate student. Instead, he collaborated with researchers in Canada, China, Jordan, South Africa and Turkey, as well as with fellow Americans, to look at children aged between five and 12 and their families.

Altogether, Dr Decety and his colleagues recruited 1,170 families for their project, and focused on one child per family. Five hundred and ten of their volunteer families described themselves as Muslim, 280 as Christian, 29 as Jewish, 18 as Buddhist and 5 as Hindu. A further 323 said they were non-religious, 3 were agnostic and 2 ticked the box marked “other”.

………

The upshot was that the children of non-believers were significantly more generous than those of believers. They gave away an average of 4.1 stickers. Children from a religious background gave away 3.3. And a further analysis of the two largest religious groups (Jews, Buddhists and Hindus were excluded because of their small numbers in the sample), showed no statistical difference between them. Muslim children gave away 3.2 stickers on average, while Christian children gave away 3.3. Moreover, a regression analysis on these groups of children showed that their generosity was inversely correlated with their households’ religiosity. This effect remained regardless of a family’s wealth and status (rich children were more generous than poor ones), a child’s age (older children were more generous than younger ones) or the nationality of the participant. These findings are, however, in marked contrast to parents’ assessments of their own children’s sensitivity to injustice. When asked, religious parents reported their children to be more sensitive than non-believing parents did. 

 It appears that no one’s dog cat is better for their owner’s religion.

Nothing to See Here, Move Along

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UN weapons inspectors have found conclusive evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria, by the insurgents:

Inspectors have conclusively identified mustard gas as the toxic agent used in an attack by insurgents in northern Syria this summer, according to a statement released Friday by an international chemical weapons watchdog.

The findings by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) are the first confirmation that non-state actors have used mustard gas in Syria’s four-year-old conflict. They also are the first confirmation of the use of the toxin since the Syrian government agreed two years ago to destroy its stockpile of chemical weapons. Since then, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have been accused of carrying out many attacks using chlorine gas, a choking agent.

The OPCW did not specify which group used mustard gas in the attack, which the organization said killed at least one person, an infant, on Aug. 21 in the village of Marea. Doctors and an aid organization in the village north of Aleppo blamed the attack on Islamic State militants who for months have been battling rebel groups in the area.

The use of mustard gas by either the Islamic State or rebels, or both, is a significant escalation in a conflict that has killed 250,000 people and displaced millions.

“In this case, the team was able to confirm with utmost confidence that at least two people were exposed to sulfur mustard, and that it is very likely that the effects of this chemical weapon resulted in the death of an infant,” the OPCW statement said.

Sy Hersh wrote about this over a year ago, noting that Turkey has been actively supporting chemical weapons development by ISIS and other Islamic insurgents in Syria.

The manufacture of mustard gas is not that difficult, particularly with state support.

I Should Feel Good about This, but I Keep Waiting to the Other Shoe to Drop

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Obama has now officially rejected the Keystone-XL pipeline.

While a rational person should see this as an unalloyed good, I keep thinking that if TranCanada had not attempted to defer its application, making it clear that they were planning for a Republican victory in 2016, Obama would still be hedging his bets:

Saying that “the Keystone XL Pipeline would not serve the national interests of the United States,” President Obama rejected the much-debated project on Nov. 6. (AP)

President Obama rejected a presidential permit Friday for the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, citing concerns about its impact on the climate.

“America’s now a global leader when it comes to taking serious action to fight climate change,” Obama told reporters, standing in the Roosevelt Room beside Vice President Biden and Secretary of State John F. Kerry. “And frankly, approving this project would have undercut that global leadership. And that’s the biggest risk we face, not acting.”

Also, I wonder if this might be some sort of attempt to disarm the left in an attempt to get the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal passed.

The Stupid, It Burns Us!!!!

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In response to the question, “Who would you like to have a beer with who is not a politician?Who would you like to have a beer with who is not a politician?”,  Republican establishment great white hope Marco Rubio responded that he wanted to have a beer with Nobel Prize winner Malala.

You remember Malala?

She was shot in the head by the Taliban for advocating for the education of  girls.

She is 19 years old, and so not legal to drink, and a Muslim, which means that she is forbidden to drink.

This is so stupid, on so many levels.

F%$# Rupert Murdoch

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Less than a week after taking control of the magazine, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp has instituted huge layoffs at National Geographic:

National Geographic informed employees Tuesday it would lay off about 9% of its staff, months after announcing it would partner with Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox as part of an expanded joint venture.

That would amount to about 180 people out of the total 2,000 employees under the new partnership with Fox.

In September, 21st Century Fox announced a for-profit venture in which it paid $725m for control of the National Geographic Society, to create National Geographic Partners, which includes National Geographic Channels.

Magazine staffers received an email from CEO Gary Knell on Tuesday morning with instructions to make themselves available throughout the day and monitor their inboxes for information about their employment status.

“The National Geographic Society and the National Geographic Channels are in the process of reorganizing in order to move forward strategically following the closing [of] the National Geographic Partners deal, which is expected to occur in mid-November,” a spokesperson for National Geographic Society said in an emailed statement.

According to the statement, layoffs will represent about 9% of the overall workforce reduction. A “voluntary separation” offer has been made to other eligible employees.

“All staff have been advised as to their status as of closing,” the spokesperson said.

It’s like Murdoch bought Nat Geo just to kill it.

It’s like amusing yourself by pulling the wings and legs off of flies, and then putting them in the water and watching them sink.

And thus an American treasure is destroyed.

Son of a Bitch! They Actually Got a Conviction!

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A high frequency trader has been convicted of stock fraud for spoofing:

Panther Energy trader Michael Coscia has been found guilty in a high-profile market-manipulation trial in Chicago.

His crime? Spoofing.

It’s a funny-sounding term for the practice of making and cancelling bets in a way that can push prices around.

It’s what alleged “Flash Crash” trader Navinder Singh Sarao was accused of earlier this year.
Spoofing investigations have actually become quite a trend at the Justice Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and other regulators.

But Coscia is the first person to be found guilty of spoofing since it was forbidden under the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, and his conviction shows that a key defense against the charge may not be effective.

Coscia was indicted last year and charged with multiple counts of commodities fraud and spoofing. Prosecutors say the Chicago-based high-frequency commodities trader defrauded the market to make some $1.6 million in illegal profits.

His lawyers tried to prove that the anti-spoofing law is “hopelessly vague, and its criminal enforcement would violate Michael Coscia’s right to due process of law.”

They didn’t succeed.

………

The tactic was outlawed in the 2010 Dodd-Frank regulation, but, as with other forms of fraud, it’s hard to prove the trader’s intent — in this case, the intent to cancel the order. Prosecutors must prove the trader didn’t change his or her mind for legitimate reasons after placing the trade.

High-frequency-trading technology has made it even easier than before.

“They are truly done in the blink of an eye, and it’s designed to take advantage of the algorithms that look for price disparities in the market,” said Henning. “Spoofing is signaling. I put in a small order and then a real big one, and I’m hoping the big one attracts you, and then you’ll throw my small one. And then I just dump the big one.”

Spoofing is when a trader puts in an order for a massive trade, and then they bet on the other side of the market move that it generates, and then they cancel the bid, making a small profit. ……… over ……… and over ……… and over again.

One does wonder why it has taken them 5 years to actually convict someone under the “new” law.

My guess is that the fact that Eric “Place” Holder is no longer attorney general might have something to do with the five years of inaction.

Not a Surprise………

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It turns out that when correcting for poverty, crime rate, and the like, the only thing that determines the level of law enforcement personnel at a school is solely determined by the percentage of black students:

With the viral video of a police officer violently arresting a black female student at high school in South Carolina reinvigorating the debate over school resource officers, new research bolsters critics’ claims that school security can have a negative effect on students, particularly African Americans.

The new study by two academics in New York showed that the mere presence of African American students at a school makes it more likely the school will take on security measures, even when controlling for neighborhood crime and school misconduct.

The study also found, among other things, greater racial disparities in student suspensions and arrests in schools where there are cops present or other security measures are taken. Those arrest and suspensions are believed to contribute to the so-called “school-to-prison pipeline.”

This is not a surprise.

It has been “Zero Tolerance”, and “Getting Tough On insertnounhere”, etc. have almost always been primarily an a ploy to excuse racism.

Can We Please Give Texas Back to Mexico? Part MCMLVII

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There is now a case wending its way through Texas courts.

Some home schoolers are saying that actually requiring they make an effort to educate their children is a violation of their rights:

Laura McIntyre began educating her nine children more than a decade ago inside a vacant office at an El Paso motorcycle dealership she ran with her husband and other relatives.

Now the family is embroiled in a legal battle the Texas Supreme Court hears Monday that could have broad implications on the nation’s booming home-school ranks. The McIntyres are accused of failing to teach their children educational basics because they were waiting to be transported to heaven with the second coming of Jesus Christ.

At issue: Where do religious liberty and parental rights to educate one’s children stop and obligations to ensure home-schooled students ever actually learn something begin?

“Parents should be allowed to decide how to educate their children, not whether to educate their children,” said Rachel Coleman, executive director of the Massachusetts-based Coalition for Responsible Home Education.

Like other Texas home-school parents, Laura and Michael McIntyre weren’t required to register with state or local education officials. They also didn’t have to teach state-approved curriculums or give standardized tests.

But problems began when the dealership’s co-owner and Michael’s twin brother, Tracy, reported never seeing the children reading, working on math, using computers or doing much of anything educational except singing and playing instruments. He said he heard one of them say learning was unnecessary since “they were going to be raptured.”

It appears that Texas lives by the motto, “If you can’t fool all of the people all of the time, you should start breeding them for stupidity.”

The Vampire Squid Gamed Education Data for Profit? Say it Ain’t So!

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It appears that a Goldman Sachs funded charter school program cheated to get bonuses for so-called success:

It was, in the vernacular of corporate America, a win-win: a bond that paid for preschool for underprivileged children in Utah while also making money for investors.

Goldman Sachs announced last month that its investment in a Utah preschool program had helped 109 “at-risk” kindergartners avoid special education. The investment also resulted in a $260,000 payout for the Wall Street firm, the first of many payments that is expected from the investment.

Gov. Gary R. Herbert of Utah hailed the program as a model for a new way of financing public projects. Such so-called social impact bonds are a new kind of public-private partnership, promising financing from Wall Street and imposing a goal on local governments.

Yet since the Utah results were disclosed, questions have emerged about whether the program achieved the success that was claimed. Nine early-education experts who reviewed the program for The New York Times quickly identified a number of irregularities in how the program’s success was measured, which seem to have led Goldman and the state to significantly overstate the effect that the investment had achieved in helping young children avoid special education.

Goldman said its investment had helped almost 99 percent of the Utah children it was tracking avoid special education in kindergarten. The bank received a payment for each of those children.

The big problem, researchers say, is that even well-funded preschool programs — and the Utah program was not well funded — have been found to reduce the number of students needing special education by, at most, 50 percent. Most programs yield a reduction of closer to 10 or 20 percent.

The program’s unusual success — and the payments to Goldman that were in direct proportion to that success — were based on what researchers say was a faulty assumption that many of the children in the program would have needed special education without the preschool, despite there being little evidence or previous research to indicate that this was the case.

When one takes a a central government function, like education, and hands it to Corporate America, corruption invariably results, whether it is military contractors, intelligence outsourced to private firms, or new House Speaker Paul Ryan.