Year: 2015

And from the Only Country with a More Dysfunctional Weapons Development Program than Ours………

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It appears that India’s Tejas light fighter ,already more than 30 years in development, will face further delays:

Delayed by more than 15 years, India’s homegrown Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mark-1 is ready for critical test flights necessary for its final operational clearance (FOC) at the end of the year, but analysts and Indian Air Force (IAF) officials say that clearance will slip again, to next year.

Though he did not provide a date for the test flights, a Defence Ministry official said they will include firings of a variety of weapons, including air-to-air missiles and Israeli-made Derby beyond-visual-range missiles. The Russian-made close-combat missile R-73 has already been integrated on the aircraft.

………

“FOC would most probably slip to sometime in 2016,” Kak said. “But given the track record, these kind of slippages have over the years been accepted as par for the course.”

The Air Force ordered 20 of the Mark-1s after the aircraft’s initial operational clearance in December 2013, and is set to order an additional 20 following FOC. State-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) will produce all 40 aircraft under limited series production and says it has the capacity to produce eight LCA Mark-1s a year once the full order is placed.

But so far the Air Force has received only one aircraft to use for weapon integration and testing, not the four it wanted to have at this stage.

“Weapons integration has been on for quite some time and the LCA has fired the R73 missile and laser-guided bombs during [the Air Force’s] firepower demonstration in February 2014,” said Daljit Singh, retired Air Force air marshal. “However, more weapons are required to be integrated. In addition to weapons integration, test flights are also required to integrate and test other avionics and systems.

This program has been in development for 32 years, and they still cannot deliver the number of aircraft needed for qualification trials, and those that they do develop will have a lower performance engine than the original domestic powerplant.

This is a complete cluster f%$#.

The F-35 is Dysfunctional in Long Range Air to Air Combat as Well

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In the recent discussions of the failings of the F-35 in close in combat, it ignored the other rather obvious bit which is that it is sub par in a longer range combat involving missiles as well:

The Pentagon’s new F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is dead meat in a close battle against even a dated two-seat F-16D fighter jet, according to a scathing test pilot report War Is Boring obtained.

Don’t sweat it, JSF-maker Lockheed Martin responded. “The F-35’s technology is designed to engage, shoot and kill its enemy from long distances,” Lockheed’s F-35 team wrote in a press release on July 1

As a rebuttal to the test pilot report, Lockheed’s claim is a cynically useful one — it sidesteps the criticism without really confirming or denying it. But that doesn’t mean the company’s test-report rebuttal is actually true.

Can the F-35 really engage, shoot and kill its enemy from long distances? There are reasons to believe it can’t. The stealth fighter lacks the sensors, weapons and speed that allow a warplane to reliably detect and shoot down other planes in combat. Especially when those planes are shooting back.

In short—the F-35 isn’t much of a dogfighter. And it’s probably not very good at long-range aerial combat, either.

………

To this end, the F-35 does have a high-tech radar, high-fidelity cameras and other advanced gear that can detect airplanes. But foremost, Lockheed optimized these sensors for spotting targets on the ground — and at relatively short distances.

The F-35 can see great. It just can’t see all that great into the air. At least not compared to modern Chinese- and Russian-made jets — the planes the F-35 is most likely to face in battle in some future war.

First, we have to look at how the F-35’s sensors compare to its rivals. The latest Russian radars, such as the one on the new Sukhoi Su-35, at least match the JSF’s APG-81, according to data compiled by Carlo Kopp at Air Power Australia.

While the specific details remain secret, Kopp estimates the APG-81 can detect an aircraft with a radar cross-section of three square meters—a MiG-29, for example—just over 100 miles away. Russian radar-maker Tikhomirov claims the Su-35’s Irbis-E can spot a similar-size target at greater than twice that distance.

………

JSF pilots shouldn’t expect to automatically get the jump on their enemies. And once everyone has detected everyone else and the long-distance shooting starts, the F-35 is in even more trouble.

The American AIM-120, the Russian R-77 and the Chinese PL-12 are all comparable long-range missiles, each with a nominal range of around 60 miles. But the F-35 is slower than rival Russian or Chinese fighters, making it a less effective missile-shooter.

A fast-flying jet can impart extra energy to any weapon it fires. That means a “supercruising” fighter such as the Su-35 — that is, a fast-flying plane that exceeds the speed of sound without a fuel-guzzling afterburner — can potentially fling its missiles farther than a missile’s advertised range.

Unable to supercruise like its rivals, the JSF can’t launch its own weapons with nearly as much extra power.

More importantly, depending on the variant, the R-77 boasts radar guidance or can home in on heat signatures — a fighter pilot can also use his plane’s radar to point the weapon near its target, at which a passive sensor on the missile takes over.

………

Not that the F-35 has much room for different kinds of missiles. In stealth mode, with its weapons tucked into an internal bay, the F-35 can only carry four AIM-120s. And that’s only if it’s not also carrying its standard load of GPS-guided bombs.

The Chinese J-20 apparently has room for four missiles inside its main weapons bay, along with two more missiles in smaller bays on the sides of the fuselage. The more conventional Su-35 can carry a whopping 10 missiles under its wings and fuselage.

………

“You up your chances of success with a multiple-missile shot,” says Thomas Christie, an analyst who worked with legendary Air Force Col. John Boyd on his “energy-maneuverability” dogfighting concept. In the past, fighter pilots trained to fire two missiles at a time, Christie explains.

Using this method, a JSF flier might get just one shot or two before he’s out of missiles. Meanwhile, Russian or Chinese jets could easily manage twice as many individual engagements — or boost their chances of a kill by firing three or more missiles at a time

As I’ve noted before, this may not as big a deal as one would think, as achieving air superiority comes down to training and tactics, so even with an inferior platform, particularly when backed up by superior numbers and logistics.

With limited sensors, compromised stealth, not enough energy and too few weapons, the F-35 is probably already outclassed in a long-range fight. Never mind merely staying out of short-range dogfights. America’s new stealth fighter should probably avoid aerial duels at any distance.

The F-35 is going to be a major pig, and advances in sensor fusion and computing are are currently in the process of eviscerating what might be its sole advantage, stealth.

From a tactical perspective, as I’ve noted before, this may not as big a deal as one would think, as achieving air superiority comes down to training and tactics, so even with an inferior platform, particularly when backed up by superior numbers and logistics.

The consequences of flushing trillions of dollars down the toilet, particularly when bridges, roads and water mains are falling apart are a much bigger deal though.

White elephants do not come cheap.

Fox News Tries to De-Trumpify the Debate

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It looks like Fox and the RNC are looking to find a way to keep Donald Trump out of the debates:

The large field of Republican presidential hopefuls jockeying to make the cut for the first 2016 debate will have to file a public disclosure of their personal finances on time to participate.

That means every candidate who declared before July 6 — a group of 14 contenders including former Florida governor Jeb Bush and real estate magnate Donald Trump — will have to reveal information about their assets and debts to get into the Aug. 6 event in Cleveland.

Trump told The Washington Post in an interview Thursday that he will file his financial disclosure ahead of schedule, perhaps next week. Bush has not yet said whether he will do so.

Fox News, which is hosting the debate with Facebook and the Ohio Republican Party, clarified Thursday that the criteria for candidates to participate include filing the required personal financial disclosure within 30 days of declaring their bids.

“FOX News has never wavered from the initial debate criteria we set forth,” Michael Clemente, the network’s executive vice president of news, said in a statement, which was first reported by the New York Times.

………

Under a 1978 federal ethics law, all presidential candidates have to file details about their financial interests with the FEC within 30 days of declaring. The agency allows two 45-day extensions.

………

Aides to Trump — who claims to be worth $8.7 billion — have maintained that he will file his disclosure within the 30 days allotted, giving him until July 22. Bush has until July 15 to meet the deadline for his paperwork, but his campaign has asked for a 45-day extension. A spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a question about when he plans to file. 

I don’t know how/if Trump is going to finesse this.

If he were to reveal his full personal finances, which would necessarily involve making it public, it would almost show that his wealth of “$8.7 billion” is a complete mirage, which would likely put a serious crimp in both his reputation, and his ability to conduct further business.

I do not think that this is going to work:  If Trump’s finances are as byzantine as I think, and as a real estate mogul, they likely are, he will file a report that is both technically legal completely uninformative.

It’s Bank Failure Friday!!!

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After 2 months of inactivity, we have one failure of a commercial bank, and one failure of a credit union.

Not sure why this is so.   It could be just a blip.

In any case, here they are, ordered, and numbered for the year so far.

  1. Premier Bank, Denver, CO

Full FDIC list

  1. Trailblazer Federal Credit Union, Washington, PA

Here is the Full NCUA list.

So, here is the graph pr0n with last few years numbers for comparison (FDIC only):

Obama Just Whitewashed Malaysian Slave Trafficking

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The Obama administration has just upgraded Maylaysia’s human trafficking tier, despite the absence of any evidence of improvement:

The United States is upgrading Malaysia from the lowest tier on its list of worst human trafficking centres, US sources said on Wednesday, a move that could smooth the way for an ambitious US-led free-trade deal with the south-east Asian nation and 11 other countries.

The upgrade to so-called “tier two watch list” status removes a potential barrier to President Barack Obama’s signature global trade deal.

A provision in a related trade bill passed by Congress last month barred from fast-tracked trade deals Malaysia and other countries that earn the worst US human trafficking ranking in the eyes of the US State Department.

The upgrade follows international scrutiny and outcry over Malaysian efforts to combat human trafficking after the discovery this year of scores of graves in people-smuggling camps near its northern border with Thailand.

The State Department last year downgraded Malaysia in its annual “Trafficking in Persons” report to tier three, alongside North Korea, Syria and Zimbabwe, citing “limited efforts to improve its flawed victim protection regime” and other problems.

But a congressional source with knowledge of the decision told Reuters the administration had approved the upgraded status. A second source familiar with the matter confirmed the decision.

Some US lawmakers and human-rights advocates had expected Malaysia to remain on tier three this year given its slow pace of convictions in human-trafficking cases and pervasive trafficking in industries such as electronics and palm oil.

………

In its report last year, the State Department said Malaysia had reported 89 human-trafficking investigations in the 12 months to March 2014, down from 190 the previous year, and nine convictions compared to 21 the previous year.

In the latest year to March, Malaysia’s conviction rate is believed to have fallen further, according to human-rights advocates, despite a rise in the number of investigations. That reinforced speculation Malaysia would remain on tier three.

“I would be stunned if they are upgraded. They have done very little to improve the protection from abuse that migrant workers face,” said Phil Robertson, deputy director of Human Rights Watch’s Asia division.

This decision has the effect of condoning slavery in Malaysia, and throughout the world.

Of course, this does not matter to Barack Obama, because is looking at the TPP in the Pacific, the TTIP with Europe, and TiSA* world wide.

*The TiSA is arguably far worse than the other two deals, and has as one of its goals to make financial, insurance, and investment regulation next to impossible.

I Have an Endorsement for the Florida Senate Race

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Rather unsurprisingly, it is Alan Grayson, who formally announced his entry into the Democratic primary:

The 2016 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Florida just got interesting.

 U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson, the liberal firebrand whose unpredictability enthralls progressives and worries moderates, announced Thursday that he will run against the more centrist U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy for the Senate seat that would be vacated by current Sen. Marco Rubio, a candidate for the presidency.

 “People understand what I stand for,” Grayson said on the WKMG television station in Orlando on Thursday. “They know I am a champion for justice, equality and peace and I do my best to help people in need.”

 He plans to campaign on giving seniors a Social Security raise, expanding the services covered by Medicare, reducing student loans and expanding access to healthcare.

 “I don’t think Obamacare has gone far enough,” he told the Miami Herald after his announcement.

 The race pits polar opposites against each other.

 Grayson, 57, from Orlando, is known for his raucous style. In 2009, he described a proposed GOP healthcare plan as “if you do get sick, die quickly” and once compared former Vice President Dick Cheney to a vampire.

The Democratic Party establishment is supporting Patrick Murphy who, “Was a Republican until he ran for Congress in 2012,” who voted for the Keystone Pipeline, the House kangaroo hearings on Benghazi, corrupt for profit colleges, donated to Mitt Rmoney in 2007, and is a member of the corporatist “New Democrat” caucus.

Hmmm…..The DSCC, which is effectively run by Chuck “Wall Street’s Bitch” Schumer, is supporting a Wall Street loving faux Dem.

What a surprise.

Needless to say, Alan Grayson is now on Matthew Saroff’s Act Blue Page.

What Wonkette Said

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Let’s Dig Up The Rotting Bones Of Confederate Traitor (And KKK Founder) Nathan Bedford Forrest!

Confederate Major General Nathan Bedford Forrest, by most accounts except the white supremacist ones, was quite the murderous, racist shithead. He was a wealthy slave trader, and he presided over one of the bloodiest massacres of the Civil War at Fort Pillow, where hundreds of black and white Union soldiers, and also black civilians, were murdered in cold blood after they had surrendered. The historian Richard Fuchs wrote that “The affair at Fort Pillow was simply an orgy of death, a mass lynching to satisfy the basest of conduct — intentional murder — for the vilest of reasons — racism and personal enmity.” Oh, and he was also the first Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan, so HE SEEMS NICE.

And in Memphis, the city which adopted Forrest so long ago as its own, there’s a big-ass statue of him in Health Sciences Park, in a racially diverse neighborhood that includes a world class medical center, dire poverty, gentrifying liberals, Victorian mansions, yummy restaurants, and the occasional murder problem. Buried underneath that statue are the rotting bigot bones of Forrest and his wife. And there’s a push to move the statue and dig up the bones, but, though that push is PART of the aftermath of the Charleston murders which left nine dead and millions of Confederate flags tossed aside in shame, this fight’s been going on a lot longer.

If there was a Confederate who deserved to end his days at the end of a rope with his remains fed to the dogs, it was Forrest.

Take down that f%$#ing statue, and put his remains in the town dump.

Finally!

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Following a very long debate, and an empassioned argument in favor of removing the Confederate flag by (among others) a descendent of Jefferson Davis, the battle flag of the Army of Northern Virginia is leaving the statehouse grounds in South Carolina:

South Carolina’s governor signed a bill Thursday that will send the Confederate flag to the state’s “relic room.” The decision was made more than 50 years after the rebel banner began flying at the statehouse in Columbia to protest the civil rights movement.

Governor Nikki Haley praised lawmakers for realizing that the long-celebrated symbol is too painful to keep promoting.

“The Confederate flag is coming off the grounds of the South Carolina Statehouse,” Haley said. “We will bring it down with dignity, and we will make sure it is stored in its rightful place.”

State lawmakers were prompted to remove the flag by the recent killing of nine African Americans at a church Bible study in Charleston.

South Carolina’s leaders first flew the battle flag over the statehouse dome in 1961 to mark the 100th anniversary of the Civil War. It remained there to represent official opposition to the civil rights movement.

………

Rep. Jenny Horne, a white Republican who said she is a descendent of Confederate President Jefferson Davis, scolded her party members for stalling.

“I cannot believe that we do not have the heart in this body to do something meaningful such as take a symbol of hate off these grounds on Friday,” she shouted. “For the widow of Senator Pinckney and his two young daughters, that would be adding insult to injury and I will not be a part of it!”

The pity of all this is that it took a racist maniac to kill 9 people at a prayer meeting to make this happen.

This Is an Interesting Analysis of the Social Dynamics among the EU Leadership

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I just came across an interesting analysis of attitudes in the EU, which the author suggests that that something akin to tribalism is poisoning EU-Greece negotiations:

Against all odds, Tsipras obtained a decisive victory in yesterday’s referendum. I agree that the referendum’s question was confusing (but have you ever seen the ones asked in Italian referenda?). I agree that the No was strategically positioned before the Yes (but why should have been the other way around?). I agree that Tsipras continued insisting that a No vote would not mean an exit from the euro, when it might mean exactly that. Yet, the Greek people in spite of the extreme situation – banks closed, massive campaign of the EU leaders in favor of the yes, not-too-vailed threats of what would have happened had the No won – overwhelmingly supported Tsipras.

 Does it mean that now the EU needs to accept all Tsipras’s requests? Of course, not. In an agreement, like in a marriage, it takes two. Unlike in a marriage, however, in an international agreement there is a question of legitimacy of the negotiating delegates. From day one, the EU challenged the legitimacy of Tsipras’s mandate. The kind interpretation is that the EU rejected it because of the ambiguity underlying Tsipras’s mandate: no to the Troika’s conditions, but yes to the euro. The unkind one is that the EU rejected it because Tsipras was not part of the Brussels’ elite (he did not even wear a tie). Even worse, he was challenging the legitimacy of the Brussels’ elite. You can be a crook, you can be an unelected leader and – if you are one of them – your legitimacy will never be questioned in Brussels or Frankfurt. But if you are not, not only your credentials will be challenged, you will be openly undermined even if you had democratically won a clear mandate.

 As a result, from day one – everybody from Junker to the Eurogroup – was trying to make this government fall, flirting with a new coalition between the “moderate” part of Syriza and the more centrist To Potami party and making clear that the conditions offered by the Institutions (ex Troika) would be much better, if Tsipras’s government fell. This was extremely antidemocratic and underhanded. Now it cannot continue any more. Tsipras has a clear mandate. Furthermore, Tsipras’s bargaining position had been boosted by a recently released IMF paper, which confirms that Greece’s debt is not sustainable.

 Now the Institutions do not need to accept Tsipras’s conditions, but they have to negotiate with him in good faith. The no vote does not necessarily mean Grexit, unless the Institutions want so. What it is different now is that the European leaders will have to take responsibility for kicking a country out (something against all the treaties). They cannot hope anymore that Tsipras will do the dirty job for them.

(emphasis original)

I’m not sure if his analysis over ties and the like make sense except as a metaphor, for what is an excess of group thing that permeates the EU leadership, but in that context, it does appear to explain a lot.

Much of what passes for “common knowledge” in the EU, is in fact a mishmash of economic theories that were discredited well before the 2nd World War, and much like the gold standard economics that exacerbated the depression and led to the rise of fascism, it appears that a similar path is being taken.

H/T Brad DeLong

Looks Like the Congressional Delegation in Florida Will Be Changing

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The Florida Supreme Court has ruled that at least 8 Congressional districts must be redrawn:

The Florida Supreme Court took a wrecking ball to Florida’s political landscape Thursday, throwing out the state’s carefully crafted congressional districts drawn by the GOP-led Legislature and ordering a new map within 100 days.

In the historic 5-2 ruling, the court not only ruled the maps were the product of an unconstitutional political gerrymandering, it signaled its deep distrust of lawmakers and provided detailed instructions on how to repair the flawed map in time for the 2016 election.

“This is a complete victory for the people of Florida who passed the Fair District amendment and sought fair representation where the Legislature didn’t pick their voters,” said David King, lead attorney for the League of Women Voters and the coalition of voter groups which brought the challenge. “The Supreme Court accepted every challenge we made and ordered the Legislature to do it over.”

The new maps are likely to reconfigure nearly all of the state’s 27 congressional districts, open the door to new candidates, and threaten incumbents, who will now face a new set of boundary lines and constituents close to the 2016 election.

………

But the justices reversed the trial court’s order approving the Legislature’s revised redistricting plan “because we conclude that, as a result of legal errors, the trial court failed to give the proper effect to its finding of unconstitutional intent, which mandated a more meaningful remedy commensurate with the constitutional violations it found.”

The court concluded however, that the plantiffs didn’t show enough evidence to support revisions to the whole map but ordered changes to eight districts “and other districts affected by the redrawing.”

The court also ordered the Legislature to turn over all documents related to the redrawn maps and urged lawmakers to refrain from conducting secret meetings and “consider making all decisions on the redrawn map in public view.”

In siding with a coalition of Democrat-backed voter groups, the court majority concluded that lawmakers violated the Fair District amendments to the Florida Constitution. The amendments were approved in 2010 by more than 63 percent of voters — over the objections of the Republican-controlled Legislature — to prohibit lawmakers from intentionally drawing districts that favor incumbents or political parties.

The court gave the Legislature 100 days to meet in special session to complete a new map, and ordered the trial court to issue an order that opens the door for it to review the final product. House and Senate leaders have not responded to the ruling.

It’s only 8 out of 27 seats, necessarily, some of the other districts will have to change because of the facts of simple geometry.

It won’t be enough to flip the house, but I could see the Dems go from the current 10 to 12-13seats in Congress, particularly since 2016 is a Presidential year.

Greece Just Caved

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As Paul Krugman notes, Argentina’s dropping the dollar peg, equivalent to a Grexit,and did not cause widespread economic devastation, it was the flailing around and uncertainty before making the break

Greece has presented a new proposal to the Troika, and it appears to be a complete capitulation to delusional German economics:

Only a day after grim predictions of financial and social collapse in Greece, a scramble appeared underway to work out the details of a new bailout package to bring the country back from the brink of falling out of the euro.

As details of the new offer emerged, it appeared that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was capitulating to demands on harsh austerity terms that he urged his countrymen to reject in the referendum last Sunday, like tax increases and various measures to cut the costs of pensions.

But Mr. Tsipras sought a three-year bailout loan totaling 53.5 billion euros (about $59 billion) and asked creditors to commit to discussing restructuring the nation’s massive debt. The amount was more than it would have been without a nationwide banking shutdown that has pummeled the economy. If granted, it would come on top of 240 billion euros in bailout loans Greece has received since 2010. Mr. Tsipras seemed to have gained ground on debt relief, his one bedrock demand. Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, finally gave a little on that Thursday, admitting that “debt sustainability is not feasible without a haircut,” or write-down of debt, even if he then appeared to backtrack.

Greece’s debt has been unsustainable, and when /the previous government doing what was demanded of it by the Troika, it caused the economy to implode, driving debt higher, both on an absolute basis, and on a debt to GDP basis.

This is a f%$#ing disaster, not just for Greece, but for the Euro Zone.

It’s clear that Greece is going to leave the Euro under these terms, and when the Greek new Drachma era shows the kind of explosive growth that Argentina did post dollar peg, there will be a clamor among the southern tier of the Euro Zone to reestablish their own currency.

Why Not to Trust Online Apps

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In addition to users having very little recourse when a vendor creates an update that is worse than its predecessor,* it also leaves you at the mercy of a vendor who can jack up the licensing fees when you are hooked:

Microsoft looks to have increased the price it will charge for Office 365 in the Euro-zone, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Australia, and Canada.

Nicole Sheridan, who works and blogs for Irish distributor MicroWarehouse, has posted a Microsoft missive on the price rises. She also quotes from a Microsoft communiqué that says the price rises are justifiable because “cloud services are rapidly evolving, and Microsoft is adding significant value to our products.”

The translation from Microflaccid speak is as follows, “We are raising prices for the same reason that dogs lick their own genitals:  Because they can.”

*Like when Google, who is particularly awful about retrograde “upgrades” removed the ability to save map locations to contacts when they went to version 7.†
†BTW, as of version 9, they have still left what was an essential feature out of maps.‡
‡The rat-f%$#s who did this should be the first bunch up against the wall when the revolution comes.Ψ
ΨBTW, you can get a link to the old version of Google Maps here. Just be sure to enable the installation of non Play Store apps, and turn off auto updating for the Maps app.

Yes, It Is Hypocrisy on a Historical Scale

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Thomas Piketty, economist and author of last year’s must read book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, a treatise on the economic forces leading to inequality gave an interview in the newsweekly Die Zeit, in which he (correctly) observes that Germany has a greater history of shirking on its debt than any other nation on the face of the earth:

DIE ZEIT: Should we Germans be happy that even the French government is aligned with the German dogma of austerity?

Thomas Piketty: Absolutely not. This is neither a reason for France, nor Germany, and especially not for Europe, to be happy. I am much more afraid that the conservatives, especially in Germany, are about to destroy Europe and the European idea, all because of their shocking ignorance of history.

ZEIT: But we Germans have already reckoned with our own history.

Piketty: But not when it comes to repaying debts! Germany’s past, in this respect, should be of great significance to today’s Germans. Look at the history of national debt: Great Britain, Germany, and France were all once in the situation of today’s Greece, and in fact had been far more indebted. The first lesson that we can take from the history of government debt is that we are not facing a brand new problem. There have been many ways to repay debts, and not just one, which is what Berlin and Paris would have the Greeks believe.

ZEIT: But shouldn’t they repay their debts?

Piketty: My book recounts the history of income and wealth, including that of nations. What struck me while I was writing is that Germany is really the single best example of a country that, throughout its history, has never repaid its external debt. Neither after the First nor the Second World War. However, it has frequently made other nations pay up, such as after the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, when it demanded massive reparations from France and indeed received them. The French state suffered for decades under this debt. The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.

………

ZEIT: Are you trying to depict states that don’t pay back their debts as winners?

Piketty: Germany is just such a state. But wait: history shows us two ways for an indebted state to leave delinquency. One was demonstrated by the British Empire in the 19th century after its expensive wars with Napoleon. It is the slow method that is now being recommended to Greece. The Empire repaid its debts through strict budgetary discipline. This worked, but it took an extremely long time. For over 100 years, the British gave up two to three percent of their economy to repay its debts, which was more than they spent on schools and education. That didn’t have to happen, and it shouldn’t happen today. The second method is much faster. Germany proved it in the 20th century. Essentially, it consists of three components: inflation, a special tax on private wealth, and debt relief.

ZEIT: So you’re telling us that the German Wirtschaftswunder [“economic miracle”] was based on the same kind of debt relief that we deny Greece today?

Piketty: Exactly. After the war ended in 1945, Germany’s debt amounted to over 200% of its GDP. Ten years later, little of that remained: public debt was less than 20% of GDP. Around the same time, France managed a similarly artful turnaround. We never would have managed this unbelievably fast reduction in debt through the fiscal discipline that we today recommend to Greece. Instead, both of our states employed the second method with the three components that I mentioned, including debt relief. Think about the London Debt Agreement of 1953, where 60% of German foreign debt was cancelled and its internal debts were restructured.

As I’ve noted before, the Germans think themselves special, and as bad as American exceptionalism has been, the consequences of German chauvanism over the past 150 years has been uniquely horrific.

It does not help that pretty much everyone in German politics but the Die Linke (The Left) are n***er baiting the Greeks in a way that would impress Bull Connor.

I am inclined to believe that we are seeing the collapse of the Euro Zone, and possibly the EU.

H/t Gavin Schalliol, who did the original translation, and then was forced to pull it over IP concerns.

When the Eurocrats Ask,”How Do You Think the People of Manhattan Would Like Bailing out Texas?” Note That We Did 30 Years Ago

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As Paul Krugman pithily observes that, “Bailing out Texas,” is a pretty good description of the Savings and Loan crisis of the 1980s:

Ahem. As it happens, the people of Manhattan did bail out Texas, big time. I wrote about it here. The savings and loan crisis, which was very costly to taxpayers, was mainly a Texas affair:

The cleanup from that crisis cost taxpayers about $125 billion (pdf), back when that was real money. As best I can tell, around 60 percent of the losses were in Texas (pdf). So that’s around $75 billion in aid — not loans, outright transfer.

So yeah, we did that.

Least Surprising News of the Day

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At The Intercept, Lee Fang notes that Eric Holder has returns to his former law firm, which lobbies for corporate criminals on Wall Street.

Notwithstanding Einstein’s laws, the revolving door is spinning faster than the speed of light:

Eric Holder Returns as Hero to Law Firm That Lobbies for Big Banks

After failing to criminally prosecute any of the financial firms responsible for the market collapse in 2008, former Attorney General Eric Holder is returning to Covington & Burling, a corporate law firm known for serving Wall Street clients.

 The move completes one of the more troubling trips through the revolving door for a cabinet secretary. Holder worked at Covington from 2001 right up to being sworn in as attorney general in Feburary 2009. And Covington literally kept an office empty for him, awaiting his return.

 The Covington & Burling client list has included four of the largest banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Lobbying records show that Wells Fargo is still a client of Covington. Covington recently represented Citigroup over a civil lawsuit relating to the bank’s role in Libor manipulation.

 Covington was also deeply involved with a company known as MERS, which was later responsible for falsifying mortgage documents on an industrial scale. “Court records show that Covington, in the late 1990s, provided legal opinion letters needed to create MERS on behalf of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and several other large banks,” according to an investigation by Reuters.

 The Department of Justice under Holder not only failed to pursue criminal prosecutions of the banks responsible for the mortage meltdown, but in fact de-prioritized investigations of mortgage fraud, making it the “lowest-ranked criminal threat,” according to an inspector general report.

For insiders, the Holder decision to return to Covington was never a mystery. Timothy Hester, the chairman of Covington, told the National Law Journal that Holder’s return to the firm had been “a project” of his ever since Holder left to the join the administration in 2009. When the firm moved to a new building last year, it kept an 11th-story corner office reserved for Holder.

Well, now we know why the Obama DoJ prosecuted fewer financial wrongdoers than did the Bush DoJ.

It’s why I have always called him “Place” Holder.