Month: May 2016

This Is Either a Scam, or This Will Become a Scam

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The latest thing in crowd funding is something called a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) and my nose tells me that this is, or is going to be, a new way for people to have their money stolen:

We’ve flagged cryptocurrency enthusiasts’ distinctly mystic beliefs in spontaneously emergent headless organisms before.

Now something called the “Decentralised Autonomous Organisation” — The DAO, not to be mistaken with Tao — project has begun to attract actual column inches in mainstream publications, albeit in keeping with the new style of journalism… i.e. devoid of critical evaluation and taking all claims at face value.

The DAO is currently raising Ether tokens (the pre-mined currency of the Ethereum blockchain, itself funded via a bitcoin capital raising) — $110m at mark-to-market rates today — in exchange for DAO, a token which “grants its holder voting and ownership rights.” As Techcrunch put it, holders of DAO “can use their tokens to vote on big governance issues (akin to traditional shareholders) but also on minute details of how The DAO spends its resources. In this way, token holders have total control over The DAO’s assets and its actions.”

The DAO explicitly states its tokens are not a form of equity — even if to the average bystander everything about the DAO token looks, smells and feels like common equity. (Perhaps the feeling is that if you dazzle them with “tokens” instead of stocks, those pesky unlicensed stock solicitation rules won’t apply? We’re not sure regulators will see it that way.)

We won’t go on about how the world has had 100 years (or more) of feedback with respect to what happens when you remove the professional executive/management function from corporate identity, or transfer all day-to-day decision making to amateur committees. Any cursory review of modern history (or a quick read of Animal Farm) will flag up the problems: indecision paralysis; wasted time and resources on voting and bureaucracy; entirely non-diplomatic means of grabbing power just to get things done; uninformed decision making; exploitation of the ignorant; tragedies of the commons scenarios and last but not least: a lack of skin-in-the-game accountability for poor decision making leading to post-facto due diligence processes with dire consequences for capital, human resources and environments.

We won’t even mention that $110m raised in illiquid tokens based on mark-t0-market valuations is akin to a paper profit only, and might create a helluva Ether currency collapse if it’s actually spent on resources in the real-world…

I don’t know if this is a scam now, but I do know that it it isn’t, it will be, and it will be sooner than later, because this is what happens when people set up a business based on self delusion.

Trump is Right on This

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For more the 20 years, we have had a problem with out negotiations with the DPRK (North Korea).

We haven’t even been able to end the Korean War.*

The problem is that one of the parties is not negotiations is not acting in good faith, and engages in meaningless posturing, threats of dire consequences, and a general lack of seriousness.

The other, of course, is the DPRK.

Since the Clinton administration stiffed the DPRK on formal diplomatic relations in 2004, the US has refused face to face negotiations, because ……… Hell, I don’t know why, but it appears that Donald Trump finds this similarly absurd:

Presumptive US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump says he is willing to meet North Korea’s leader to discuss its nuclear programme.

“I would speak to him, I would have no problem speaking to him,” the businessman said of Kim Jong-un.

Such a meeting would mark a significant change of US policy towards the politically isolated regime.

Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton decried Mr Trump’s “bizarre fascination with foreign strongmen”.

The statement, delivered by one of her aides, added that Mr Trump’s foreign policy “made no sense”.

Because talking with people instead of threatening them works so well?

The DPRK has tested nukes, probably including a boosted fission device, and they have conducted launches of SLBMs in the 22 years since we promised to exchange ambassadors.

Talking to someone is not a reward. Rewarding someone is a reward.

In fact, talking to Donald Trump is one of my definitions of cruel and unusual punishment.

The Washington, DC consensus on the DPRK is nuts, and stupid, and nuts.

Trump is right here, a generation of US diplomats are wrong.

BTW, f%$# the Donald for being right, and f%$# the idiots at Foggy Bottom for making him right.

*Seriously. This is not a joke. Technically hostilities are still active, we are just in a temporary truce.

To Protect and Serve

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It’s confirmed.

The Baltimore PD is nothing at all like the TV series Homicide: Life on the Street.

First we learn that for many years, the company doing psyche evals for would be BPD cadettes was phoning it in, which explains a lot:

Baltimore’s spending panel has cut ties with two contractors.

 Baltimore’s spending panel voted unanimously Wednesday to take action against two companies accused of violating contracts with the city.

 The Board of Estimates, which is controlled by Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, voted to immediately end a contract with a psychology firm that conducted mental health screenings for many prospective Baltimore police officers. The screenings were far shorter than required.

 The $730,000 contact for Psychology Consultants Associated of Lutherville had been on suspension since last year, pending the results of a city investigation. The city’s inspector general reported this week that its investigation found that nearly three-quarters of officers and trainees said that their pre-employment screenings with the firm lasted 30 minutes or less.

 The contract required at least an hourlong interview for each job candidate.

 In a letter to the inspector general, Baltimore Police Commissioner Kevin Davis accused the firm of “cutting corners” and putting the public and the department “at risk.”

This might explain a lot, including the fact that Baltimore cops were caught looting during the Freddie Gray unrest:

Three Baltimore police officers were accused of theft in two separate investigations — including two charged after being caught on video looting a store during the unrest that followed the death of 25-year-old Freddie Gray.

According to the Baltimore Sun, correction officers Tamika Cobb and Kendra Richard were suspended without pay after footage showed them exiting a local convenience store holding Slim Jims and Tostitos chips on April 25.

That same day, riots broke out in the city after six hours of peaceful protests calling for charges to be filed against the officers who arrested Gray earlier that month. Six officers were later charged in connection wih Gray’s death.

Both Cobb and Richard were assigned to corrections facilities downtown, near the site of the unrest. They face charges of burglary and theft, and bail was set for each of them at $35,000.

Yes, I know that the 2nd story is from a year ago, but I came across both of them today, so I just had to comment.

They seemed to segue nicely one into the other, or as Zathras would say, “At least there is symmetry.”

Not Enough Bullets

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In the brave new world of f%$#ing over the American worker, we have the financial innovation (hold on to your wallets) of payroll cards:

Hey, remember our old friends, Darden Restaurants? They’re the dickbag parent company of Olive Garden, Longhorn Steakhouse, and (formerly) Red Lobster, who (allegedly knowingly) source from slave labor and who are legendary within the restaurant industry for screwing over their workers. Yeah, turns out they have a fun new way of screwing their employees out of their hard-earned money. The best part? It’s (mostly) perfectly legal.

The secret is a fun (not at all fun) method of paying their employees called payroll cards. The way payroll cards work is that instead of actual paychecks, employees are given what amounts to a debit card they can use to access their pay. Some (assholes) have argued that this is actually good for workers, because it means they can access their money immediately. But a new report from Restaurant Opportunities Centers United sheds some light on the practice and, well … Darden doesn’t come out of it looking pretty. Among other things, the report found that:

  • 23% of employees surveyed said they were never given instructions on how to use the cards
  • 42% had trouble accessing their money using the cards
  • 63% weren’t told about the fees associated with the card when it was foisted on them
  • 49% said they had no access to an ATM from which they could withdraw their money without a fee
  • 24% reported fees at point of purchase — meaning they had to pay fees when they tried to use the payroll card for a purchase, rather than just a withdrawal

Payroll cards are great for banks: they get to charge exorbitant ATM fees to people whom they would otherwise have never been able to gouge. They’re just as great for the companies themselves, especially in Darden’s case: all told, the practice of using payroll cards saves the company $5 million per year, according to the report. The only people they’re not great for are actual workers, who (as per usual) get hosed in a big way.

Employers are required to offer an alternative, but a lot of them don’t, and those that do try to hide it from their workers.

F%$# these folks, without lube.

Oh Snap!

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Despite a veto threat from the Obama administration, the Senate passed a bill allowing 911 victims to sue them for their ties to the terrorists:

A bill that would let the families of those killed in the Sept. 11 attacks sue Saudi Arabia for any role in the terrorist plot passed the Senate unanimously on Tuesday, bringing Congress closer to a showdown with the White House, which has threatened to veto the legislation.

The Senate’s passage of the bill, which will now be taken up in the House, is another sign of escalating tensions in a relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia that once received little scrutiny from lawmakers.

Administration officials have lobbied against the bill, a view that the White House spokesman Josh Earnest reiterated after the vote. And the Saudi government has warned that if the legislation passes, it might begin selling off up to $750 billion in Treasury securities and other assets in the United States before they face a danger of being frozen by American courts. Adel al-Jubeir, the Saudi foreign minister, delivered the warning to lawmakers and the administration while in Washington in March.

The House of Saud is claiming that if this passes, they will dump their Treasuries on the market, which will cause the dollar to tumble.

So the dollar falls, making imports more expensive, and our exports more expensive.

This would have the effect of reinforcing our manufacturing economy and improving our balance of trade.*

The Senate bill carves out an exception to the [1976] law [which grants immunity to foreign governments] if foreign countries are found culpable for terrorist attacks that kill American citizens within the United States. If the bill were to pass both houses and be signed by the president, it could clear a path for the role of the Saudi government to be examined in the Sept. 11 suits.

………

Mr. Schumer said he believed that Democrats would override a veto from Mr. Obama. ………

So, if the House follows suit, and Obama vetoes the bill, this is going be a major sh%$ storm, and it’s going to jam up the Democrats something fierce.

It plays into one of Trump’s narratives, and it’s a very popular idea among the American public.

What’s more, Republicans would love to override an Obama veto.

The simple solution would be for Obama not to veto the bill, but because the foreign policy establishment continues to view the House of Saud to be an invaluable ally, as opposed to the medieval terrorism supporters that they actually are, so the ever establishment Obama will follow through on his veto.

*Only please, Brer Fox, please don’t throw me into the briar patch.

Quit Drawing Targets on Your Shoes, Morons

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The useless meat sacks known as “Senate Moderates” are now prostrating themselves before the possibility of President Trump:

As Democrats portray Donald Trump as a dangerous leader for his party, most of them barely acknowledge he could be president. But some centrist Democrats say they’re ready and willing to work with the business mogul should he defeat their party’s nominee.

 “The people will have a chance to vote. If Donald Trump is elected president there will be a great opportunity to sit down and have a conversation about what that agenda looks like,” explained Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), who has long backed Hillary Clinton. “If he’s president, we’re going to have disagreement. But we’d better all figure out how to come up with an agenda for the American people.”

 Getting ready for a potential Trump presidency in their home states may just be good politics for moderate senators such as Heitkamp, Jon Tester of Montana and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin. They’ll be top targets for Republicans in 2018, a midterm year that could favor the GOP if recent trends of lower turnouts in nonpresidential elections continue. And it’s a good bet that they’ll need Trump voters to keep their jobs.

Seriously?

These cheese eating surrender monkeys are panicking over the midterms, and so they are engaging in activities calculated to demoralize the base.

It’s stupid on a policy level, it’s stupid, on a political level, it’s even worse.

This is blind unreasoning panic.

I’ve seen zebras chased by cheetahs that carry themselves with more grace and dignity.

Why Ignoring CIA Torture Was a Bad Idea

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Some how or other, the CIA “accidentally” deleted the Senate Intelligence Committee’s torture report, though there appears to be another copy “safe”:

……

Yeah, good luck with those files, especially given the spectacular news from this side of the pond regarding one of the CIA’s most recent escapades in international thooleramawnery. Once again, the dedicated worker bees of our intelligence community have proven themselves tragically accident prone. As Michael Isikoff of Yahoo News reports:

Although other copies of the report exist, the erasure of the controversial document by the CIA office charged with policing agency conduct has alarmed the U.S. senator who oversaw the torture investigation and reignited a behind-the-scenes battle over whether the full unabridged report should ever be released, according to multiple intelligence community sources familiar with the incident. The deletion of the document has been portrayed by agency officials to Senate investigators as an “inadvertent” foul-up by the inspector general. In what one intelligence community source described as a series of errors straight “out of the Keystone Cops,” CIA inspector general officials deleted an uploaded computer file with the report and then accidentally destroyed a disk that also contained the document, filled with thousands of secret files about the CIA’s use of “enhanced” interrogation methods.

And I am the Tsar of all the Russias.

It is a good thing that the Congressional oversight panels have been right on the ball in informing we suckers who foot the bill about this flagrant disregard for security protocols and spectacular bungling by the relevant authorities in The Company. No, wait.

The incident was privately disclosed to the Senate Intelligence Committee and the Justice Department last summer, the sources said. But the destruction of a copy of the sensitive report has never been made public. Nor was it reported to the federal judge who, at the time, was overseeing a lawsuit seeking access to the still classified document under the Freedom of Information Act, according to a review of court files in the case. A CIA spokesman, while not publicly commenting on the circumstances of the erasure, emphasized that another unopened computer disk with the full report has been, and still is, locked in a vault at agency headquarters. “I can assure you that the CIA has retained a copy,” wrote Dean Boyd, the agency’s chief of public affairs, in an email.

Well, I’m certainly reassured. They’re probably using the disc to play floor hockey at Langley.

But Senator Dianne Feinstein is still a trusting soul.

The functions of our state security apparatus are important.

The enormous intelligence industrial complex that we have created is not.

It is out of control, wasteful, and incompetent.

Cuomo Has to be Sh%$ting Bullets Now

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It’s pretty clear that US Attorney U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s investigations of corruption in Albany have not ended with the convictions of the speaker of the assembly and the majority leader of the state senate:

As U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s office issues a storm of subpoenas to the administration of Governor Andrew Cuomo and his close associates in relation to the state’s Buffalo Billion economic development program, the governor and his aides have delivered a consistent message: the investigation targets the dealings of a few bad apples, the governor wasn’t aware of any wrongdoing and he wants to get to the bottom of the situation as quickly as possible.

“I’ve said to all my people, and I’ve said to the U.S. attorney, any way we can find out and be helpful and be cooperative, we will be,” Cuomo told reporters during a press conference in the Adirondacks on Tuesday. “Nobody wants the facts more than us. That’s why we started our own private investigation. We know the questions: did two people act improperly? Did they represent companies they shouldn’t have? Was there undue influence for those companies? Those are the questions, we now need the answers and we don’t have the answers.”

The message rings as spin to a number of expert observers who insist Cuomo has long overseen a system that allows, at the very least, for the appearance of pay-to-play to flourish as mini-economies have popped up around the state where connected consultants work with both state government entities and those looking to win state contracts, and where the state funnels money through non-profits, allowing them to avoid scrutiny and standard state contracting procedures.

Bharara’s probe appears to have also spurred inquiries into surrounding issues by Attorney General Eric Schneiderman and Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli – all of whom, like Cuomo, are Democrats.

It is unclear whether the two men who have been reported to be at the center of the probe – longtime Cuomo aide Joe Percoco and Cuomo family associate and lobbyist Todd Howe – violated the law or how Bharara’s many subpoenas that have targeted the executive chamber, former Cuomo aides, consultants, and businesses involved in the Buffalo Billion all fit together. However, the scope of the investigation and the deep layers of connections between and among some of the players involved makes it fairly clear that the target of Bharara’s investigation is not simply two Cuomo associates.

………

“The governor is looking at it in terms of the mistakes, or poor behavior of a couple aides that he seems to be disassociating himself with,” said John Kaehny, executive director of Reinvent Albany. “But what the subpoenas are targeting seems to be the corruption risk and bid-rigging favoring the governor’s campaign contributors. No one cares Todd Howe did something dumb. This is not what this is about – the governor sidestepped the larger issues.”

At least six current or former members of the Cuomo administration have been targeted by subpoenas. The administration has defended some of them.

A review of a number of businesses targeted by Bharara’s subpoenas shows that most of them are regular contributors to Cuomo’s campaigns. That leads some observers, including Kaehny, to believe that Bharara is interested in the state’s economic development subsidy programs as a whole.

“The Buffalo Billion is just a microcosm of the pay-to-play racket that has engulfed economic development under Governor Cuomo,” said Kaehny. “It is just a giant machine that takes in donations and doles out grants to donors. It is remarkable in its scope, consistency, and is dramatic in how it all leads back to the same people. What caught Bharara’s interest in this is a system – not a rogue agent, not a bad apple, it’s a system.”

………

Gerald Benjamin, a professor of political science at SUNY New Paltz noted that the fact SUNY Polytechnic President Alain Kaloyeros has been subpoenaed and appears to have been a target of the probe since the fall, “makes it a much bigger matter that could be focused on systemic practices.”

Kaloyeros has overseen much of the Buffalo Billion contracting and has become a major figure in the Cuomo administration as the governor has ramped up his economic development programs.

“The issue we have is confidentiality,” Kaloyeros told Gotham Gazette by Facebook messenger last fall when being asked about the Buffalo Billion investigation. “We were instructed in no uncertain terms not to comment on the inquiry from down South with the threat of jail which is being interpreted as we are the target of an investigation. So that part we cannot comment on beyond what we were authorized to say publicly.”

………

Aside from the red flags sent up by donations and dealings with the air of conflict of interest, watchdog groups say they believe Bharara may be examining the Buffalo Billion because it is clear that up until now on one on the state level has been.

Cuomo and the Legislature crippled the Comptroller’s ability to audit deals made regarding the Buffalo Billion in 2011, [New York Comptroller Thomas] DiNapoli and others say, by passing legislation that prevented auditing of SUNY, CUNY, hospital or construction funds. That is important to the Buffalo Billion because the state funnels cash for Buffalo Billion contracts through two non-profits controlled by SUNY.

The question at this point whether Cuomo was merely willfully blind or complicit.

My money is on the former.  He’s a former prosecutor, and he knows how to walk that line.

It’s a pity.  He is an evil rat-bastard.

Yep. This is a Woman of the People

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If Hillary were serious about inequality, she wouldn’t be hosting $100,000.00 a head fundraisers:

Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton is ramping up her fundraising schedule, attending a number of fundraisers this week that cost donors six-figures to attend.

The former secretary of state attended a pair of small, intimate gatherings in New York City on Thursday evening that cost donors a minimum of $100,000 to attend, according to a campaign official. On Wednesday, she attended two $100,000-a-head events in Englewood, N.J., and New York City.

Maureen White and Steven Rattner, two prominent Democratic fundraisers, hosted one of the Thursday fundraisers at their home in Manhattan. Mr. Rattner also was a prominent businessman and served in the Obama administration. The second Thursday event was at the home of Lynn Forester de Rothschild, a prominent New York businesswoman and supporter of Mrs. Clinton and Democratic candidates. On Wednesday, architect Jon Stryker and hedge fund manager Orin Kramer played host.

Rattner settled with the SEC and the New York State Attorney General over kickbacks.

Lynn Forester de Rothschild is one of Those Rothschilds, the original multinational banksters.

And $100,000.00 a head for the contributors.

Does this sound like a woman who has the slightest interest in addressing the parasitic finance that is at the heart of Wall Street?

Does the former board member for Walmart sound like someone who would support labor unions?

Win or lose, this little foray into dynastic politics will not end well.

Linkage

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I love old school machine tools, so I loved this:

Oceania Had Always Been at War with Eastasia

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I don’t know about you, but this sure sounds like boots on the ground:

  • More special forces to Iraq.
  • Troops on the ground in Yemen.
  • The US is running an airfield in Syria:
    The U.S. military has all-but confirmed it’s in control of an airstrip in northern Syria. For months, reports in Arabic have described the base near Rmaylan, Syria, with Americans helping expand the runway as low-flying, unmarked helicopters make daily trips to and from Turkey.

    On May 6, U.S. Army Col. Steve Warren, a spokesman for Operation Inherent Resolve, didn’t exactly deny the existence of the airstrip when asked about it. “The soon to be 300 American forces working in Syria need to be resupplied,” Warren wrote. “Aerial resupply only makes good sense.”

Obama ran as a peace candidate.

Hillary Clinton, the next likely president, is about as bellicose as Dick Cheney.

Our policy of military interventions, and followup interventions to fix our first interventions has made us less safe, killed thousands of our soldiers, and around ¼ million civilians.

We have destabilized these societies, and strengthened terrorist organizations and made us far less safe, but our solution is more war.

This is insane.

So Does Blowing Up Innocent Civilians, You Over Pampered Sack of Sh%$

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David Petraeus makes the point that anti-Muslim bigotry helps terrorists.

While it is an obvious point coached as deep meaning, which is kind of what Petraeus does, it misses the obvious point, which is that our mindless drone war, of which Petraeus was its most aggressive advocate, was an even more effective recruiting tool for Al Qaeda and Daesh.

We have been reigning down death from the skies on wedding parties, children, and first responders (“double tap” strikes), and this creates people who want revenge on the west in general and the US in particular.

There is a special place for you in hell.

This is Mindbogglingly Stupid

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At the Nevada state convention, it appears that the (Hillary supporting) convention chair decided to put her thumb on the scales even though her side had already won:

Organizers of the Nevada State Democratic Convention said they had to rush to wrap up the “unruly and unpredictable” event on Saturday after security became an issue and objects, including chairs, were being thrown.

State party officials said authorities at the Paris casino in Las Vegas informed them around 10 p.m. that they could no longer provide the necessary security for the event, where tensions between Bernie Sanders supporters and party leaders flared up. The convention was scheduled to end at 7 p.m.
………

Sanders supporters have accused state party leaders of rigging the process against them, and they objected to procedural votes to approve the rules of the event. They also questioned a credentials committee’s disqualification of 58 would-be Sanders delegates, who state party officials said didn’t provide evidence about their identities or weren’t registered to vote as Democrats by a May 1 deadline.

………

After casino officials told convention organizers to wrap up the event Saturday night, party chairwoman Roberta Lange accepted a motion to appoint delegates pre-approved by the Hillary Clinton and Sanders campaigns, organizers said. She also accepted a motion to elect the state central committee according to rules submitted by county party chairs.

Sanders supporters upset with the proceedings staged a protest outside the Nevada State Democratic Party headquarters on Sunday, writing in sidewalk chalk “Roberta Lange murdered democracy” and “Fire Roberta.” Officials also said Lange had received hundreds of phone calls and text messages, including death threats, after her cellphone number was posted on social media.

Sanders issued a statement Friday, as tensions simmered before the convention, saying all Democrats shared the common goals of defeating Donald Trump and electing Democrats to office. “Working together respectfully and constructively on Saturday at the Nevada Democratic convention will move us closer to those essential goals,” he said.

Hillary Clinton really has two things going for her in the race for the nomination, her “inevitability”, and her claimed ability to unify the party in November.

The actions in Nevada mitigate against these perceived advantages.

If the Clinton campaign is as sure as they claim about her victory in the nomination, they aren’t, (and neither am I) they need to stop going scorched earth.

Unsurprising News

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Leaked documents show that Turkey provided tacit support to Daesh:

These 422 pages of classified documents contain blood-chilling information regarding terrorist activities in Turkey.

These documents classified as ‘secret’ material, contain huge amounts of information regarding the activities of Daesh militants in Kilis and Gaziantep.

Erdem, commenting on this information, said that in Kilis, Gaziantep and across Turkey dangerous processes are taking place to which the government turns a blind eye. “I am speaking here as a deputy, whose duty is to control what is happening. The documents that I present to you, is a living proof of what kind of dirty games the AKP government is involved in.”

He showed the documents containing the phone records of one of the organizers of the terrorist attacks in Turkey, İlhami Balı, known in the ranks of the jihadists, as Abu Bakr

“These entries recorded comprehensive information such as which hotel the terrorists are going to stay in, where they will wait for their car, which gas station they will use for refueling in a mosque in Kilis, how many people and who exactly would be responsible for the preparation of a terrorist attack.”

“Despite the fact that all this information was in the hands of the authorities, the security forces had not carried out any operations to detain terrorists. I ask one very simple question: why were these terrorists not arrested?” Erdem pointed out.

The deputy further spoke about how the Safety Authority tapped and recorded all phone conversations of the terrorists.

This is not a surprise.  About the only people who don’t acknowledge that the Turks (and the House of Saud) are the US State Department, Angela Merkel, and the Turks and the House of Saud.

Getting my History Geek On

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I’ve always had a bit of interest in the Black Death.

One of the things that I’ve always thought that it was not the Bubonic Plague (Y. Pestis) as we see it today.

Specifically, the spread of the Plague was blisteringly fast (5-8 km a day) for the transportation systems of the day, which mitigates against the modern plague.

There are variants of the disease that are more likely to move at this speed, most notably the marmot variant that are far more likely to infect lung tissue.

Because they allow for direct human to human (HtH) transmission, the spread is accelerated.

Now an analysis of the disease in Eyam in Derbyshire indicates that the spread of the disease was largely HtH:

Without a doubt, the bubonic plague has been one of the deadliest and most devastating infectious diseases in all of human history. The bacterial infection—caused by Yersinia pestis—has sparked dozens of outbreaks and three massive pandemics, killing hundreds of millions of people. The Justinian Plague from 541 to 767 is estimated to have killed up to 50 percent of the population at the time and spurred the demise of the Roman Empire. Likewise, the fourteenth century Black Death, which circumnavigated Europe in just a few years, ended up slaughtering as much as 60 percent of the continent’s population.

But despite the indelible mark the dark disease has left on humanity, researchers still aren’t certain how exactly Yersinia sweeps through cities and countries. The highly infectious disease has historically been linked to rodents, in which the bacteria can fester, and rat fleas, which take in and then vomit out the bacteria in subsequent bites. Thus, booming vermin populations have long been assumed to spark and sustain outbreaks. But a fresh analysis of a tiny village in England—made famous for its handling of a plague outbreak from 1665 to 1666—stands to challenge the view.

The Derbyshire village of Eyam, estimated to have a population of around 700 at the time of the outbreak, took the remarkable step of imposing a quarantine on itself—a move almost unheard of at the time. While the villagers aimed to spare neighboring parishes—which they did—the quarantine and the villagers’ detailed death records also provided a perfect opportunity for studying plague transmission dynamics.

In a new analysis of the outbreak, researchers estimate that rodent-to-human transmission accounted for only a quarter of all infections, while human-to-human transmission made up the rest. The finding, published Wednesday in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, adds fuel to a hot debate among academics about how plague spreads. And more importantly, it has the potential to inform public health responses to modern-day plague outbreaks, which still occur around the world, particularly in Africa and South America (albeit on much smaller scales than historical outbreaks).

………

They arrived at the point by first digging into historic population and death records of Eyam—now known as “plague village.” The researchers looked at factors such as age, wealth, household structure, and gender of the 257 people who died of plague. The deaths, which began after the delivery of flea-infested cloth from London, lasted from September 1665 to October 1666.

Next, the researchers used a stochastic compartmental model and Bayesian analytical methods to recreate the pattern of deaths and trajectory of the outbreak revealed by the records. The model included rodent-to-human transmission and human-to-human transmission, which was estimated to occur within a fixed window of 11 days between exposure, infection, and death. (While there were oral reports that three villagers recovered from the plague, those weren’t recorded in documents so the researchers tossed them out of their main analysis. However, when they did try including them, it didn’t alter their overall findings.)

The researchers found that human-to-human transmission accounted for 75 percent of all infections, with age, wealth, and household structure playing big roles in who got sick. Kids and family members of victims were the groups most affected by the plague. The village’s wealthy were less likely to get the plague, possibly due to less contact with general village folk and vermin.

I would expect more results to support the differences between the current and historical versions will become clearer as more genetic data is collected from graves and more epidemiological studies like this one are conducted..

Thanks, Liz

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The CFPB just moved to end arbitration on consumer loans and credit cards:

Richard Cordray, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, pointed out what a major change his agency was poised to bring about. “Many banks and financial companies avoid accountability by putting arbitration clauses in their contracts that block groups of their customers from suing them,” he said in a statement.

The rule would apply only to the consumer financial companies that the agency regulates. It would not apply to arbitration clauses tucked into contracts for cellphone service, car rentals, nursing homes or employment.

“It is a good start,” said Berle M. Schiller, a federal judge in Philadelphia who has been critical of arbitration clauses that dismantle class actions and tip the scales in favor of companies. “Class actions are the only way that companies can be brought to heel.”

The agency’s proposed rule would be the first significant check on arbitration since a pair of Supreme Court decisions in 2011 and 2013 blessed its widespread use. Those decisions signaled the culmination of an effort by a coalition of credit card companies to stop the tide of class-action lawsuits.

Elizabeth Warren’s vision for the CFPB, which she brought into existence despite opposition from many in the Obama administration is bearing some significant fruit.

H/t Naked Capitalism.

Another Failure as a Parent

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Charlie shared a quote he saw on the internet.

He thought that it was brilliant, but he had no clue where it came from:

CB: You see, Baldrick, in order to prevent war two great super-armies developed. Us, the Russians and the French on one side, Germany and Austro-Hungary on the other. The idea being that each army would act as the other’s deterrent. That way, there could never be a war.

PB: Except, this is sort of a war, isn’t it?

CB: That’s right. There was one tiny flaw in the plan.

LG: O, what was that?

CB: It was bollocks.

I agreed that it was brilliant, and it seemed a bit fmailiar.

I asked it what it was from, and he looked down said, “Something called Blackadder?”

My kids have never seen any of the Blackadder series.

I have failed as a parent.