My money is still on a close race, where the not-England parts of the UK have the Brexit rejected.
That being said, I think that there are some in this election, and when taken in juxtaposition:
- When ignoring the political opportunists (Hi, Boris), I think that the pro-Brexit campaigners have overwhelmingly relied on nativism, bigotry, and anti-immigrant sentiment in their campaign.
- The substantive complaints made about the EU by the pro-Brexit forces are essentially correct.
- Because of items 1, item 2 has simply not been a meaningful part of the campaign.
Personally, I believe that if the EU continues as it does, (An undemocratic font of German political hegemony and German economic mythologyz) it will lead to another war in Europe.
We can see the tensions deriving from the EU inflicting pain and suffering on the ordinary citizenry in order to protect the elites, and this (along with there being no meaningful leftwing opposition to the EU) has led to the rise of reactionary and bigoted parties across Europe.
The UK pulling out of the EU could be the dick punch that it needs to realign itself from an unelected (the European Parliament is a glorified debating society) imperial bureaucracy unto a real democratic institution.
As an aside, there are some secondary benefits to a Brexit:
- It should reduce the incidence of foreigners using London real estate for “in case of popular uprising” bolt holes, which would make the city more affordable for ordinary Brits.
- It should reduce the size, and hopefully influence, or Britain’s bloated and corrupt financial sector.