Initial unemployment claims fell to a still horrifying high 1.5 million.

When the number drops below ½ million, we can start to talk about having a meaningful recovery.

As it stands, we still have not seen the full knock-on effects for April and May:

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits continued to fall while those receiving them appeared to plateau, signs the U.S. labor market continues to slowly mend from the coronavirus employment shock.

The ranks of Americans drawing on unemployment benefits declined slightly in the week ended May 30 to 20.9 million, the Labor Department said Thursday. So-called continuing claims remain historically high—the prepandemic record was 6.6 million in 2009—and appear to have stabilized in recent weeks after peaking in early May.

Though states continue to work through a backlog of claims, new applications for unemployment benefits have trended down since the coronavirus pandemic and related lockdowns triggered a surge in claims at the end of March. About 1.5 million applications were filed last week, compared with a peak of nearly 7 million in the week ended March 28.

Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.