Initial Unemployment Claims rose by 37,000 to 412,000, though the 4-week moving average continued its downward trajectory:

Worker filings for initial unemployment benefits rose last week for the first time since late April but remained near a pandemic low as the labor market continues to heal from the impact of Covid-19.

Initial jobless claims rose by 37,000 to 412,000 in the week ended June 12. Despite the increase, the four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, reached a new pandemic low of 395,000. This was the lowest average level since March 2020, when the pandemic first took hold in the U.S. 

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Thursday’s claims report also showed unemployment rolls shrank late last month. The number of ongoing benefit claims—a proxy for those receiving payments—fell by more than 500,000 to 14.8 million the week ended May 29. That includes those tapping benefits through pandemic-specific programs introduced last year, including those for self-employed workers.

I wonder how much all the news about ‘Phant governors terminating benefits might be behind the drop in ongoing claims.

The stimulus from extended employment benefits are tapering off, and this will adversely effect the recovery.

The only question is how much this will effect the recovery.