State bail reform and coronavirus-related releases from city jails are not driving this year’s surge in shootings, the NYPD’s own data shows — despite the insistence of department brass to the contrary.

“It’s bail reform. It’s COVID. It’s emptying out prisons,” Commissioner Dermot Shea — who’s credited with developing the department’s data-driven policing model — said as he attempted last week to explain the troubling rise in gun violence across the city.

While the surge in gunplay is undeniable, a Post analysis of department data found that most people released under the criminal justice reforms or amid the pandemic had no known ties to the bloodshed — with criminal justice experts saying the cops should focus on the flow of illegal guns into the city instead of playing the “blame game.”

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In fact, just 91 of the approximately 11,000 people sprung from Rikers Island under the initiative — or 0.8 percent — have been found to be anywhere near a shooting this year, the figures show.

And more than half of those 91 are not accused of any wrongdoing, with the department describing 25 as “victims” and another 24 as “witnesses” — on the grounds that the mere presence of criminal justice reform beneficiaries is leading to shootings.

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The known connection between those released with the coronavirus bearing down on the city and the spike in shootings was even more tenuous.

While about 275 of the approximately 2,500 Rikers Island inmates sprung to reduce crowding amid the pandemic had been rearrested as of mid-June, the NYPD said Tuesday that only nine — or 0.3 percent — had been linked to shootings.

One has been arrested, and two are described as persons of interest, while three are victims and three are witnesses.

Despite what the numbers show, NYPD brass have repeatedly drawn a line between the releases and the gunplay.

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A criminal justice expert was unsurprised to learn that there was no significant link between bail reform and the outburst of gun violence.

“There’s a blame game going on and I don’t think it’s helpful,” said Richard Aborn, president of the Citizens Crime Commission. “I think it would be helpful if the NYPD put [out] a clear report explaining why they think the uptick in shootings is linked to bail reform.”

Rule 1 of cops talking about policing is that cops lie.

Rule 2 of cops talking about policing is see rule 1.

H/t Atrios.