The The Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI] has risen to its highest level since March 2006 (see top pic) indicating that there might be some sort of recovery going on.

This is further reinforced by the fact that personal income, spending and savings all rose in May.

Of course on the other side the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index fell nearly 10 points between May and June, and first time home-buyer traffic has fallen off a cliff, indicating that the recent bump in home sales was, as the experts^* noted, was merely a sale-price time shift, not a real recovery.

^*And loudmouth blowhards like yours truly.